Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

UsedToWait

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, it makes sense. You see nothing of value in the GFA except for things that personally benefit you.. The ability to live in Spain whilst waving your miniature English flag.

It was a despicable thing to say, downcow. Mocking the GFA is not A-OK just because in your imagination, the EU and Ireland have been using it for their own devices.

Another day, another derailment of the thread,


This is seemingly endless..

- the faux-naivety 'please explain..'
- the victim card 'I'm on my last warning so cant respond'
- the low-level wind ups - 'roi vs NI', 'your GFA' 'irish intransigence'

I know I'll get a card for this, and I'm happy to - downcow, if you do indeed, as you have often professed, speak for the majority of unionists in Nothern Ireland, we're going to need to have a long debate in this country as to what format our politics will take after the inevitable (and if IS just a matter of time and demographics) Border Poll and the endi of colonialism on this island.

You have no interest in engaging in good faith.
No interest in learning from the numerous knowledgeable and well-informed posters in this thread, and evolving your thinking.
No interest in moving an inch from your blood red lines.

I really think you're just here to wind up some taigs, for your own amusement.

woohoo!!!

liamtech wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The assumption of CU&SM along with continued memership underpinned it, yes. It will be more difficult to work GFA and impossible without the will needed to.

If someone says Brexit breaches GFA and in the next breath demand a border poll, then one can ask it either is or isn't breached, so which is it?

in my opinion, Brexit with no deal or no backstop, does actually violate the GFA. No deal =instant hard border to protect the common market - limited backstop pushes discussion and ultimate disagreement/incompatibility to another day

Where as the idea of a Border Poll is included within the GFA itself.

Happy to stand corrected, and i know that politics is being played by many sides in this but that is my interpretation of this

By itself no, is my interpretation but it sets the conditions going forward that GFA is so compromised in having the ability to be run that it grounds to a halt and direct rule returns. In the end it doesn't matter, it'll have gone belly up and nationalists and moderates will look to join us and the EU. When it suits the Brits they'll dump NI in a heartbeat and Brexit creates the conditions.

WomanSkirtFan8

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And the Tories blame the Irish. Well of course they do but they also forget that they're the one who created both the state of northern Ireland and the border.

woohoo!!!

liamtech wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Depending on what future deal between the EU and UK achieves. There will need to be bilateral negotiations around CTA I feel and an updated agreement based on GFA to get Stormont up and running. Failure will increase pressure for a border poll.

But was that not the purpose of the backstop? Status quo remains indefinitely until a solution is found? Now the HOC want a limit on the backstop, but all that does is defer the problem for another day. and i honestly do not believe the circle can be squared

The HoC is a joke. Reject the deal on offer after, ok what do you propose, erm we dont know, but definitely includes cake with cherries. Waste of time. Sign up or get lost.

reslfj

downcow wrote: »

I know it’s a very difficult circle to square but we have no hope until we recognise eaches sensitivities

The Brexit border problems has nothing whatsoever to do with people passing internal borders within the CTA.

It has only and everything to do with goods, standards, rules and regulation of goods. And in case of a 'no deal' Brexit tariffs and very significant tariffs for food.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Brexit has cost them 80 billion to date and that's before they've even left.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-has-cost-british-economy-80bn-bank-of-england-37816166.html

Brexit has cost the British economy at least £80 billion since the referendum and the shock of a no-deal divorce could see interest rates slashed, according to a Bank of England policymaker.

Gertjan Vlieghe, an external member of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, said that, since the June 2016 vote, 2% has been shaved off GDP.

This, he said, amounts to a loss of around £800 million per week, or £40 billion per year.

And that not including that stuff like

The car industry culling investment by £5Bn since Brexit. That's goint to have long term consequences especially when they operate on a 3 to 5 year cycle.

Or the future effects of the flight of capital.

Or the costs of replicating EU institutions and standards and Galileo.

Or sweeteners to get trade deals.

liamtech

reslfj wrote: »

The Brexit border problems has nothing whatsoever to do with people passing internal borders within the CTA.

It has only and everything to do with goods, standards, rules and regulation of goods. And in case of a 'no deal' Brexit tariffs and very significant tariffs for food.

Lars

Its interesting. We are not part of schengen but we are part of the EU, and we will have people using ireland, to get into the UK via northern ireland? that does seem fairly inevitable does it not?

jm08

downcow wrote: »

My point was that a poster was wanting me to be very grateful because I was getting freedom to travel courtesy of Ireland.
I’m just pointing out I have it courtesy of gfa. Ireland have zero power to remove it.
Gfa was a compromise. We all took lots of pain in voting for it so I’m happy to take any benifits that go with it.

Maybe you feel ire can remove this freedom from me??

You have your Irish passport and the freedom to travel courtesy of the Irish people, who can withdraw that privilege if they so wish (by referendum).

Since the foundation of the state, anyone born on the island of Ireland has been entitled to Irish citizenship. That facility has been very useful in the past for British citizens of NI. For example, Brian Keenan (a protestant from East Belfast) was taken hostage in Beirut in the 1980s (prior to GFA). At that time, the British goverment would not negotiate hostage release, so the Irish Government stepped in and negotiated his release.

It is highly unlikely that the Irish people/Government would ever remove that privilege of automatic citizenship to anyone born on the island of Ireland (whose parents have been born here).

Capt'n Midnight

Bigus wrote: »

Serious question here ,

Is there Any chance of a Euro wide referendum by the 420 million remaining eu citizens to allow the British back in after Brexit or can they just rejoin willy nilly ?

Not willy nilly.

New EU entrants need to sign up to
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis_en

So Schengen and the Euro. And signing up to ERM and Charter of Fundamental Rights and Area of freedom, security and justice. Things the UK have opt-outs for now.

Any one of those is a major RED LINE. So humble pie would have to be eaten if Brexit goes pear shaped and the EU goes "what did you think would happen ?"


Also potentially citizens barred from working in some EU countries for up to seven years like the A8 Countries if Brexit is worse than predicted.

downcow

20silkcut wrote: »

If a hard border was no big deal and frictionless and manned by unicorns with x ray cameras and scanners then we would all be happy and get on with our lives but I think that particular bubble is well burst at this stage.

Yeah agreed. I am just asking people to face realities that this has sod all to do with gfa. Whether there was a gfa or not we would have exactly the same circle to square.

liamtech

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not willy nilly.

New EU entrants need to sign up to
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis_en

So Schengen and the Euro. And signing up to ERM and Charter of Fundamental Rights and Area of freedom, security and justice. Things the UK have opt-outs for now.

Any one of those is a major RED LINE. So humble pie would have to be eaten if Brexit goes pear shaped and the EU goes "what did you think would happen ?"


Also potentially citizens barred from working in some EU countries for up to seven years like the A8 Countries if Brexit is worse than predicted.

Yes they would be in a different position to that which they are in now - the opt outs wouldnt be there and they would, from the POV of Brexiteers, have no emergency break, as negotiated by Cameron - and yes they might have to be in the Euro Zone

Its possible the EU would back down on some of the considerations- but by no means would they get back to exactly where they are now or the renegotiated position Cameron got

It really is astonishing to me that more people are not backing a second vote - or that people who voted to leave are not outraged by the fact that the Campaigners had

• No idea how to leave, and how difficult it would be
• lied about the 350million a week, NHS, Turkey, Common trade etc etc

A Dub in Glasgo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is it possible the EU does not want a deal and would rather make an example? UK hurt far more with no deal.

Possible but not probable

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One of the principals here - Arlene Foster, has called that an 'existential problem' for Unionism...i.e. it only exists in your head, it is NOT a physical thing and it has been stated by the highest law official you have got, that it does NOT affect the constitutional position of NI.

Exactly the point I am making. Gfa does not mention the border but I feel it is in the spirit of it that no additional borders are established between NI & roi and NI & Scotland. Whereas I think many on here want to ignore the later as if it’s irelevant. Some sensible negotiations could at least attempt to square the circle but one party is refusing to negotiate at the moment.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yeah agreed. I am just asking people to face realities that this has sod all to do with gfa. Whether there was a gfa or not we would have exactly the same circle to square.

If there wasn't a committment to an international agreement, the UK would be gone with a deal (nobody wants to see them crash out).

What you cannot square is that there is a commitment to an international agreement and those you elected are complying with it albeit after being forced to.

The UK are showing no signs of crashing out if events are to be believed. Parliament looks like it will not allow it - and that will be down to the GFA. Very simple really.

A Dub in Glasgo

The GFA is built on the foundation of both parts of Ireland being in a common structure i.e. both being in the CU & SM. Remove the foundation and guess what happens

The treaty text does not specifically state the obvious and in hindsight it should have as the UK hass been very sly and underhand

It is either ignorance or plain deception when some Brit nationalist comes out with the 'a hard border is not mentioned in the GFA therfore we can do what the fcuk we want' line

jochenstacker

murphaph wrote: »

If the UK leaves without a deal the UK will tear itself apart. NI will opt for Irish unification. Scotland will opt for independence and will be welcomed back into the EU (and despite the competition I would be disgusted if Ireland wasn't firmly in favour of this). Wales will probably stick it out with England.

Eventually you'll have this new country, England. It will sit alone for a generation and then hopefully the younger people will yearn for membership of our union. As equals. And I hope we would welcome that new generation back in too.

This to me is a very likely outcome. I would be willing to bet €100 on that in a bookies.
Right now it is clear the UK is incapable of reaching any kind of a decision, so the default outcome is crash out, no deal. There are too many groups, all pulling in different directions and completely incapable of working together, this paralysis will inevitably lead to no deal.
Scotland leaving would be the next logical step, if there is a crash out Brexit, this is a foregone conclusion.
Irish reunification as a pure majority decision is pretty much a given, but it's never that easy, is it?
The problem in NI is purely down to extremist groups that are completely entrenched that are willing to use violence to push their minority agenda against the will of the general population.
One has to hope that the older generation of headbangers and cranks have mostly died out or retired, so their objections won't be more than a few crazies shouting abuse from the sidelines.

Once the above has come to pass and England has suffered economically for a few years, whilst watching United Ireland and Scotland prosper, they will either come to their senses and rejoin, or they will radicalise, dig in even deeper and turn into the North Korea of Europe.

downcow

UsedToWait wrote: »

downcow, if you do indeed, as you have often professed, speak for the majority of unionists in Nothern Ireland, we're going to need to have a long debate in this country as to what format our politics will take after the inevitable (and if IS just a matter of time and demographics) Border Poll and the endi of colonialism on this island.

You have no interest in engaging in good faith.
No interest in learning from the numerous knowledgeable and well-informed posters in this thread, and evolving your thinking.
No interest in moving an inch from your blood red lines.

I really think you're just here to wind up some taigs, for your own amusement.

Here’s a big part of the problem. You first sentence above. I have endlessly said that I do not represent anyone and indeed reflect the opinions of a small minority of unionists. Shown by fact I voted yes to gfa and most voted no.

I have tried to be very careful and you will note over last pages I agree with some who are most opposed to my presence here when I feel that is justified.

It is difficult to discuss brexit without NI being discussed. Believe me I wish, and have argued here, that gfa and NI are being overly used to force UK to stay

liamtech

downcow wrote: »

Here’s a big part of the problem. You first sentence above. I have endlessly said that I do not represent anyone and indeed reflect the opinions of a small minority of unionists. Shown by fact I voted yes to gfa and most voted no.

I have tried to be very careful and you will note over last pages I agree with some who are most opposed to my presence here when I feel that is justified.

It is difficult to discuss brexit with NI being discussed. Believe me I wish, and have argued here, that gfa and NI are being overly used to force UK to stay

I dont think anyone or anything is forcing the UK to stay - what has been demonstrated is that the concept of the UK leaving the common Market is creating a crisis along the border of Northern Ireland. The back stop would solve this but is unnacceptable to some due to the fact it treats the NI differently to the rest of the UK. i totally get your point.

But the solution is not clear at all - unless the UK as a whole remains in the common market - which it doesnt want to, or at the very least, the HOC appears not to..

Thats why a general election really should take place, with the backstop and brexit being the main issues... to take a proper poll..

EDIT - and that would require an extension of course

Berserker

Flex wrote: »

Just have the backstop apply to only Northern Ireland, as it was originally intended

NI is part of the UK and it is going to leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK. Suggesting anything else is pointless.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Others would disagree about the UK being worst hit.

No wonder Coveney and co are worried.

The RoI is going to get crucified post Brexit. Savy business people have been saying this since day one but they are being drowned out but GFA bull**** and clowns **** themselves senseless over the state of British politics. The days of buying overpriced goods from the RoI in the UK are coming to an end.

Westernyelp wrote: »

on what terms?

Membership would be a given because the EU would be delighted to have UK as part of the EU. If they UK leaves and comes back, it'd make every other members in the EU think twice about ever leaving. It'd be gold for the EU.

Bit cynical

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The GFA is built on the foundation of both parts of Ireland being in a common structure i.e. both being in the CU & SM. Remove the foundation and guess what happens

The good news is that the GFA will survive a crash out. I don't think anyone is talking about tearing it up. A no deal will however put a strain on the implementation of it but will not as far as I am aware render it null and void.

reslfj

liamtech wrote: »

Its interesting. We are not part of schengen but we are part of the EU, and we will have people using ireland, to get into the UK via northern ireland? that does seem fairly inevitable does it not?

The CTA is a kind of Schengen for the RoI and the UK. The outer border is at ports and airports in both countries - Dublin and London. The CTA is supposed to have identical rules for entry and stay in both countries *

As a non Irish EU citizen you will be allowed into the CTA for 90 days just by showing your passport - be it in Dublin or London.
This is the current UK governments policy for the CTA/UK and is agreed with the government in RoI.
This has been the situation for many years and it just set to continue.

Note: The UK has agreements with - I think - around 150 countries about visa free or visa upon arrival (a stamp in the passport and some £) short time entry into the CTA/UK. These rules are vital for UK citizens getting rights to and enjoying ease of travel in this world.

The EU concept of FoM for people has nothing to do with travel across EU border and has indeed noting to do with Schengen.

EU's FoM for people is about being allowed to move your permanent address and working in all EU countries. (or be rich/pensioner with own health insurance).

For people with papers/passports (within EU an official ID card too) you can't control if these people enter as e.g. tourists, but start on a job the day after. This will not be legal after Brexit, but it cannot be controlled at the border. Control of illegal stay and/or work requires registration and control with employers, tax authorities, landlords and maybe even by the police.

"Take back control of our border" is nothing more than a empty propaganda slogan. There has always been control at the CTA/UK/IE borders and there are pasport/National_ID control when entering the Schengen area from the CTA/UK/IE area.

So explain to me why I should travel from EU26 via Dublin and not directly to London if I wanted to enter the UK ?

Lars


* The has been and maybe still are some minor differences in entry rules between UK and RoI e.g. for visa or visa free entry - like for some small pacific island states. It was agreed 6-8 years ago, such discrepancies should be removed. Schengen rules are somewhat more streamlined

Bit cynical

Berserker wrote: »

Membership would be a given because the EU would be delighted to have UK as part of the EU. If they UK leaves and comes back, it'd make every other members in the EU think twice about ever leaving. It'd be gold for the EU.

Well I think what would be gold for the EU would be the UK applying to rejoin but I could see the EU making it difficult once the application is in. The UK would need to be assured before the application is submitted that its previously negotiated opt-outs and rebates would be reinstated.

downcow

This is an interesting read. I had been bombarded with posters saying, go do your homework, nonsense, etc when I mentioned that I would have access to Eu healthcare etc. Posters spoke with very convincing confidence leading to me giving way to their greater knowledge.
You might need to read this wee article if you think it is all sorted. And how could we have a second referendum when nobody knows what they would be voting for? (where did I hear that before)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47292347

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Posters spoke with very convincing confidence leading to me giving way to their greater knowledge.
You might need to read this wee article if you think it is all sorted.

A quick read, and it confirms everything you've been told. No EHIC, no guarantee of EU-rates for students, no vote in the election to the EP.

But even so, British passport-holders will be second-class citizens in NI.



Back to today's unanswered question: what law(s) would you most want to see changed when you "take back control"?

liamtech

reslfj wrote: »

The CTA is a kind of Schengen for the RoI and the UK. The outer border is at ports and airports in both countries - Dublin and London. The CTA is supposed to have identical rules for entry and stay in both countries *

As a non Irish EU citizen you will be allowed into the CTA for 90 days just by showing your passport - be it in Dublin or London.
This is the current UK governments policy for the CTA/UK and is agreed with the government in RoI.
This has been the situation for many years and it just set to continue.

Note: The UK has agreements with - I think - around 150 countries about visa free or visa upon arrival (a stamp in the passport and some £) short time entry into the CTA/UK. These rules are vital for UK citizens getting rights to and enjoying ease of travel in this world.

The EU concept of FoM for people has nothing to do with travel across EU border and has indeed noting to do with Schengen.

EU's FoM for people is about being allowed to move your permanent address and working in all EU countries. (or be rich/pensioner with own health insurance).

For people with papers/passports (within EU an official ID card too) you can't control if these people enter as e.g. tourists, but start on a job the day after. This will not be legal after Brexit, but it cannot be controlled at the border. Control of illegal stay and/or work requires registration and control with employers, tax authorities, landlords and maybe even by the police.

"Take back control of our border" is nothing more than a empty propaganda slogan. There has always been control at the CTA/UK/IE borders and there are pasport/National_ID control when entering the Schengen area from the CTA/UK/IE area.

So explain to me why I should travel from EU26 via Dublin and not directly to London if I wanted to enter the UK ?

Lars


* The has been and maybe still are some minor differences in entry rules between UK and RoI e.g. for visa or visa free entry - like for some small pacific island states. It was agreed 6-8 years ago, such discrepancies should be removed. Schengen rules are somewhat more streamlined

Well simply, you would do so via dublin if you wished to legally enter the Republic of Ireland, and illegally enter the UK via northern ireland

It is actually a problem that could become a reality - Britain may replace legal immigration with illegal immigration

You show your passport at dublin airport - in you come - jump on a train to northern ireland - jump on a ferry - and hey presto you are in the UK - If you enter the UK directly, you will be noted as having 90 days

RobMc59

downcow wrote: »

This is an interesting read. I had been bombarded with posters saying, go do your homework, nonsense, etc when I mentioned that I would have access to Eu healthcare etc. Posters spoke with very convincing confidence leading to me giving way to their greater knowledge.
You might need to read this wee article if you think it is all sorted. And how could we have a second referendum when nobody knows what they would be voting for? (where did I hear that before)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47292347

Good article,if NI citizens who wish to remain UK citizens are excluded from the EHIC scheme I wonder if the UK might reciprocate by saying the NHS would not longer be free for EU citizens as they have done with tariffs on EU produce coming into the UK-the UK would put itself at a disadvantage if everything was free and no tariffs whilst the EU plays hardball.

First Up

downcow wrote:

This is an interesting read. I had been bombarded with posters saying, go do your homework, nonsense, etc when I mentioned that I would have access to Eu healthcare etc.

You were asked to do your homework after you said your entitlement to an Irish passport came from the GFA.

Irishmale0399

liamtech wrote: »

Well simply, you would do so via dublin if you wished to legally enter the Republic of Ireland, and illegally enter the UK via northern ireland

It is actually a problem that could become a reality - Britain may replace legal immigration with illegal immigration

You show your passport at dublin airport - in you come - jump on a train to northern ireland - jump on a ferry - and hey presto you are in the UK - If you enter the UK directly, you will be noted as having 90 days

And that is exactly why I believe if the UK leaves without accepting the WA it will not take long for either 1 of 2 things happening....


1. A hard border between UK and ROI
2. Customs checks and passport controls at ferry termnals and airports

CelticRambler

liamtech wrote: »

You show your passport at dublin airport - in you come - jump on a train to northern ireland - jump on a ferry - and hey presto you are in the UK - If you enter the UK directly, you will be noted as having 90 days

The CTA makes that irrelevant - your entry date into Ireland will show up on the UK system and vice versa. You might as well just fly directly to a UK airport of your choice and stay there.

Berserker

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well I think what would be gold for the EU would be the UK applying to rejoin but I could see the EU making it difficult once the application is in. The UK would need to be assured before the application is submitted that its previously negotiated opt-outs and rebates would be reinstated.

They won't. As for a vote, when did the EU ever respect the democratic wishes of the member states? The RoI had to vote again on two(??) referenda because the EU didn't like the first answer. No chance in hell they'd have a vote on it. They'd happily take the UK back, add the force of the British army to the EU army which will be up and running by then and it'll be all systems go.

liamtech wrote: »

It is actually a problem that could become a reality - Britain may replace legal immigration with illegal immigration

You show your passport at dublin airport - in you come - jump on a train to northern ireland - jump on a ferry - and hey presto you are in the UK - If you enter the UK directly, you will be noted as having 90 days

You are forgetting about the CTA. You'll have to proceed through an EU border before entering NI anyway.