Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

It would be fair to give the UK an 'out' to save face. Like if a stranger and a friend get into a disagreement over whatever, the right thing to do is trying to offer into the discussion a way that things can be deescalated.
Putting forward a way to change what will happen is the most sensible thing to do. If anybody doesn't listen to it then that becomes their problem and you have done all you can do in a given situation.

The problem is that the UK have put red lines in place while only having a conversation with itself. Like a crazy homeless person that you simply have to walk away from.

There isn't really any 'out' the EU can give Great Britain at this stage. They could try give token concessions. Anything of substance has already been put forward as the central and only position.

Capt'n Midnight

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

It would be fair to give the UK an 'out' to save face.

Maybe Labour could help there ?

No.

The reality is that Labour only say they "could" hold a second referendum
after an election
which could only happen if there's an extension to Article 50
also labour would have to win the election, something that got a lot harder
and the referendum would be on a renegotiated Brexit deal (good luck)
and they could still loose that referendum

We're right back at six impossible tests.


Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said if his party won power he would renegotiate a Brexit deal with the European Union and could hold another referendum, as he comes under pressure to support giving the public another chance to stay in the bloc.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

Okay let's stick on your closing as argument there.

Name them

Name the positives and opportunities.

Name , let's keep its simple, three.

Three positives from brexit backed up with facts

It's been a solid 45 minutes folkstonian


Maybe I'm being too harsh on brexit.

I want you to confince me with three positives from brexit. With associated facts to explain them.

It's an opportunity here to turn me. I'm open for convincing.

liamtech

The only Hypothetical solution i can forsee is a general election.

My thought experiment would be as follows:

-May loses the vote, and then thanks to defections, and resignations loses a confidence vote - General Election triggered

-An extension would obviously be needed at this stage. and i expect the EU would agree to one.

-Labor would not get a majority, but neither would the Tory Party.

-But Labor could possibly enter a coalition with the SNP, the Lib Dems, and perhaps TIG. All of whom would insist on a re run of the Referendum - and could also insist that it be a straight forward question - a kin to 'Do you still want this folks'

As to the outcome i dont see any serious arguments for Brexit other than 'its not fair we won fair and square'.. 'this is not democratic'.. and 'the EU are [Insert unparliamentary language]'..

If they still ended up in a brexit situation then, in all honesty i would eat my hat, but its so polarizing it might actually be a bigger majority for Brexit

ilovesmybrick

https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1099347068739567616

In the event of a hard Brexit Spanish Universities are canceling Erasmus grants.

Capt'n Midnight

liamtech wrote: »

-But Labor could possibly enter a coalition with the SNP, the Lib Dems, and perhaps TIG. All of whom would insist on a re run of the Referendum - and could also insist that it be a straight forward question - a kin to 'Do you still want this folks'

See my post above about Labour wanting a new Brexit negotiation before a referendum

So you'd have to hope the SNP and the Lib Dems could persuade them to reverse that , and change their position on Brexit in order to get a referendum on the current mess.


I'd imagine the chances of Labour dealing with the Independent Group are close to zero. So that doesn't help the numbers add up.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

See my post above about Labour wanting a new Brexit negotiation before a referendum

So you'd have to hope the SNP and the Lib Dems could persuade them to reverse that , and change their position on Brexit in order to get a referendum on the current mess.


I'd imagine the chances of Labour dealing with the Independent Group are close to zero. So that doesn't help the numbers add up.

It also certainly doesn't help that Corbyn is an EU sceptic and May is pro EU (at least in a yes/no Brexit vote).

When you add in the DUP to the political blend you end up with something that doesn't make any sense.

liamtech

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

See my post above about Labour wanting a new Brexit negotiation before a referendum

So you'd have to hope the SNP and the Lib Dems could persuade them to reverse that , and change their position on Brexit in order to get a referendum on the current mess.


I'd imagine the chances of Labour dealing with the Independent Group are close to zero. So that doesn't help the numbers add up.

But the coalition partners in this hypothetical situation could simply have it as a red line for going into coalition - with labor - i doubt Corbyn would survive if he refused them at this stage - with where we are now

prawnsambo

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

It also certainly doesn't help that Corbyn is an EU sceptic and May is pro EU (at least in a yes/no Brexit vote).

When you add in the DUP to the political blend you end up with something that doesn't make any sense.

I imagine Corbyn has a track record on this.



Oh yes, here it is.

Mr.Nice Guy

Andrew Bridgen, the ERG member who thought being English gave him an automatic right to an Irish passport, once again inventing a new reality on the radio:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1099312859639672832

At some point in the future historians will marvel that the media gave so much air time to so many who knew so little.

Even with a no-deal Brexit getting ever nearer, the BBC seem more interested in generating buzz than offering insight.

Hurrache

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1099347068739567616

In the event of a hard Brexit Spanish Universities are canceling Erasmus grants.

And I think it was the Dutch a few weeks ago that recommended that their students shouldn't take up places in UK universities.

prawnsambo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen, the ERG member who thought being English gave him an automatic right to an Irish passport, once again inventing a new reality on the radio:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1099312859639672832

At some point in the future historians will marvel that the media gave so much air time to so many who knew so little.

Even with a no-deal Brexit getting ever nearer, the BBC seem more interested in generating buzz than offering insight.

History won't be bothered by the likes of Andrew Bridgen. I'm sure there have been similar MPs throughout the past. But we don't know for sure because history has forgotten them.

Seth Brundle

Reuters: EU expects UK request to help avoid food shortages under hard Brexit

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1099403653616680960?s=19

ilovesmybrick

Hurrache wrote: »

And I think it was the Dutch a few weeks ago that recommended that their students shouldn't take up places in UK universities.

I didn't hear about the Dutch, but Norway did issue recommendations on it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/norway-students-uk-universities-brexit-warning

And I personally know of at least four major Horizon 2020 grant proposals that stalled over having a British university on the application. Now, to be fair there may have been other issues at hand, but two of them were finally approved when the UK universities were dropped and replaced by continental institutes. This wasn't due to any prejudice against the Oxbridge universities involved, it was entirely due to the uncertainty as to how they can proceed after March 29th.

These issues may not garner the headlines like car manufacturers or tariffs on produce, but the Horizon Europe (H2020 successor) is over €100 billion, and there is no certainty that Britain will remain in this funding system. Britain may be able to increase agricultural output, they may be able to improve some of their industrial output, but it will be incredibly difficult to replicate the benefits of this funding stream in terms of scientific output, collaboration, and cooperation.

RobertKK

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen, the ERG member who thought being English gave him an automatic right to an Irish passport, once again inventing a new reality on the radio:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1099312859639672832

At some point in the future historians will marvel that the media gave so much air time to so many who knew so little.

Even with a no-deal Brexit getting ever nearer, the BBC seem more interested in generating buzz than offering insight.

Andrew Bridgen only makes the people who listen to him less intelligent after.
At least he is not a foreign minister who mixes up Slovenia with Slovakia...
This is the worrying thing though, too many people in power who are really quite ignorant on things they should know.
I don't think there will be a no deal Brexit, as the UK would be treated as a pariah state for the chaos it would create, I think there are enough intelligent people who will make sure it won't happen.
Andrew Bridgen isn't one of the intelligent...

Hurrache

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I didn't hear about the Dutch, but Norway did issue recommendations on it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/norway-students-uk-universities-brexit-warning

Ah yes, it was Norway.

Igotadose

RobertKK wrote: »

This is the worrying thing though, too many people in power who are really quite ignorant on things they should know..

Michelle Obama has a great quote: "Obama, who turns 55 in January, said that during her career she has been “at every powerful table you can think of”, from corporate boards, to “G summits”, to the UN.

“Here’s the secret: they’re not that smart. There are a lot of things that folks are doing to keep their seats because they don’t want to give up power.

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/michelle-obama-world-s-most-powerful-people-aren-t-that-smart-1.3719527

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen, the ERG member who thought being English gave him an automatic right to an Irish passport, once again inventing a new reality on the radio:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1099312859639672832

At some point in the future historians will marvel that the media gave so much air time to so many who knew so little.

Even with a no-deal Brexit getting ever nearer, the BBC seem more interested in generating buzz than offering insight.

"Never was so little known by so many..." - Churchill.

FrancieBrady

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I didn't hear about the Dutch, but Norway did issue recommendations on it https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/norway-students-uk-universities-brexit-warning

And I personally know of at least four major Horizon 2020 grant proposals that stalled over having a British university on the application. Now, to be fair there may have been other issues at hand, but two of them were finally approved when the UK universities were dropped and replaced by continental institutes. This wasn't due to any prejudice against the Oxbridge universities involved, it was entirely due to the uncertainty as to how they can proceed after March 29th.

These issues may not garner the headlines like car manufacturers or tariffs on produce, but the Horizon Europe (H2020 successor) is over €100 billion, and there is no certainty that Britain will remain in this funding system. Britain may be able to increase agricultural output, they may be able to improve some of their industrial output, but it will be incredibly difficult to replicate the benefits of this funding stream in terms of scientific output, collaboration, and cooperation.

I have a good friend who is well up in the education system there and he reckons this is one of the saddest parts of the whole Brexit fiasco.
It will have severe ramifications down the line for R+D and industry & medical talent etc.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Igotadose wrote: »

Michelle Obama has a great quote: "Obama, who turns 55 in January, said that during her career she has been “at every powerful table you can think of”, from corporate boards, to “G summits”, to the UN.

“Here’s the secret: they’re not that smart. There are a lot of things that folks are doing to keep their seats because they don’t want to give up power.

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/michelle-obama-world-s-most-powerful-people-aren-t-that-smart-1.3719527

She's an absolute fake the same as Hillary Clinton. Looking to her for great quotes is really foolish.

prawnsambo

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

She's an absolute fake the same as Hillary Clinton. Looking to her for great quotes is really foolish.

Well reasoned post. Have you anything to back that up so we can share your opinion?

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1099406036430135297

FrancieBrady

Hope the mods allow this, because it perfectly sums up the problem with Labour and for Labour. Not sure what can be done to resolve it and if it can be resolved in time to have any meaningful effect on Brexit.

ToBeFrank123

joe40 wrote: »

No one, absolutely no one is saying that. Brexit is a negative for everyone, but it was the uk decision.

I don't like the UK decision either but it was a democratic decision that should be respected. No point crying over spilled milk and all that.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't like the UK decision either but it was a democratic decision that should be respected. No point crying over spilled milk and all that.

There's plenty of evidence that it wasn't democratic. Unfortunately that evidence doesn't quantify the amount of democracy that was impinged.

Akrasia

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't like the UK decision either but it was a democratic decision that should be respected. No point crying over spilled milk and all that.

Was there informed consent for this kind of brexit?

Midlife

It was democratic in that it went to the best case/spin.

Not sure who has the most effective PR should decide the path of a country for all time.

Additionally, the result wasn't binding, more of a poll. This where you'd expect politicians to step up and lead rather than following the path of least resistance.

liamtech

Akrasia wrote: »

Was there informed consent for this kind of brexit?

I would say no.. The promises were vague

• some for a Norway arrangement
• Some for common market

And thats before i would even touch on the 'spending pledges' - 350million a week on the NHS

And the idea of a 'Divorce Bill' wasnt mentioned at all i seem to remember, or it was only hinted at, and drowned out by screams of 'Take back control'

Folkstonian

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hope the mods allow this, because it perfectly sums up the problem with Labour and for Labour. Not sure what can be done to resolve it and if it can be resolved in time to have any meaningful effect on Brexit.

How does it perfectly sum up labour’s problem? If the masses supported Jeremy as the cartoon suggests, they wouldn’t be polling 9 or 10 points behind the tories. And the dissenters in the parliamentary party would be utterly irrelevant!

liamtech

Folkstonian wrote: »

How does it perfectly sum up labour’s problem? If the masses supported Jeremy as the cartoon suggests, they wouldn’t be polling 9 or 10 points behind the tories. And the dissenters in the parliamentary party would be utterly irrelevant!

I think the point is that registered members of the Labor Party support Corbyn - so even if large amounts of the parliamentary Party was against him, the membership could keep him in

Corbyn is the result of Blair dragging the labor party away from left wing politics, and more toward a so-called champaigne socialism -