Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123

lawred2 wrote: »

downcow gets banned and you rear your head with pretty much the same posting style

Wtf? I've been posting here before he was banned.

If you have an allegation to make, make it, so the mods can decide on it.

ancapailldorcha

No more speculating about reregs please. Use the report function.

Spanish Eyes

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He along with junior minister Helen McEntee have played a blinder and are largely supported by all political groups.
Thankfully he has the EU behind him too.

Helen McEntee was a guest on R4 recently with John Humphrys, and she was well able for him. She is a future leader I think.

Mairead McGuinness is another. But she does talk for ever. Still.

Any FF people strike anyone as being kind of "good". I have a few in my radar, but just wondered.

prawnsambo

youcantakethat wrote: »

Dunno about that. The pound sterling has not changed much in the past ten years, anytime my cousins ever had to buy sterling they say they usually only got 80 something pence sterling, same as now. And unemployment is less in the UK than in the Eurozone. The UK want their independence from Europe, many in Britain see Europe as greedy bullies, we should be able to understand that. I would say Britain will carry it off, they generally do best when their back is against the wall. I'll be more worried when the EU splits up, will the new proposed EU army be able to hold it together?

I've heard this argument before. The past ten years are not relevant to brexit. What's relevant is what happened after the vote. And it fell like a stone. And barely moved since then.

And I'm surprised that your cousins are your only source for exchange rates. You can see them on the internet you know. All the way back to the last century even.

reslfj

Hurrache wrote: »

Ah yes, it was Norway.

February 5. Newspaper BT,
"Sådan lyder det fra uddannelses- og forskningsminister Tommy Ahlers (V).

"Man skal tænke sig godt om og måske overveje, om man skal søge til et andet land end Storbritannien. For der er en risiko forbundet med det" "

The Danish minister for higher education and research Tommy Ahlers (Liberal):

"You must reflect over the situation and maybe consider if your application should be directed to another country than Great Britain. Because there is a risk with it (study in the UK)" /(my translation)

Lars

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

They are 9 polling points behind the most universally disliked prime minister in living memory. How much bigger does the surge have to get before you will acknowledge it?

I'm talking and always was, about Labour party membership. If one of the defectors would risk going to a by-election we would actually know what they think of the leadership.
Otherwise, it is speculation.

Folkstonian

reslfj wrote: »

The Danish minister for higher education and research Tommy Ahlers (Liberal):

"You must reflect over the situation and maybe consider if your application should be directed to another country than Great Britain. Because there is a risk with it (study in the UK)" /(my translation)

Lars

I think attempts to dissuade European students from going to British universities are a real shame for both Britain and also European students themselves. One thing Britain does brilliantly is higher education with so many of its top universities (including my old uni - but no bragging!) dominating pan-European league tables.

Folkstonian

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm talking and always was, about Labour party membership. If one of the defectors would risk going to a by-election we would actually know what they think of the leadership.
Otherwise, it is speculation.

The membership increased by nearly 400 thousand when Corbyn became leader though, because they bought in very specifically to his brand of politics, and because it cost as much as a bottle of coke to do so.

What the labour membership likes hasn’t really represented what the traditional labour support base has liked since 2015. And even then, his view on Brexit (maybe the only thing I actually semi-agree with him on ironically) has carved the membership in two.

Borderhopper

I'm sorry, but sterling has fluctuated massively in the last ten years. And as someone who crosses the border regularly, the past 12 months have been the worst on exchange rate as I've seen. From going to a safe, reserve currency 3-4 years ago, to almost parity with the euro is a major currency shift

Borderhopper

I'm sorry, but sterling has fluctuated massively in the last ten years. And as someone who crosses the border regularly, the past 12 months have been the worst on exchange rate as I've seen. From going to a safe, reserve currency 3-4 years ago, to almost parity with the euro is a major currency shift

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

The membership increased by nearly 400 thousand when Corbyn became leader though, because they bought in very specifically to his brand of politics, and because it cost as much as a bottle of coke to do so.

What the labour membership likes hasn’t really represented what the traditional labour support base has liked since 2015. And even then, his view on Brexit (maybe the only thing I actually semi-agree with him on ironically) has carved the membership in two.

Which the cartoon represents as I said..'the problem with Labour and the problem within Labour'.
I have no interest in defending Corbyn or the defectors.

youcantakethat

prawnsambo wrote: »

I've heard this argument before. The past ten years are not relevant to brexit. What's relevant is what happened after the vote. And it fell like a stone. And barely moved since then.

And I'm surprised that your cousins are your only source for exchange rates. You can see them on the internet you know. All the way back to the last century even.

I looked up the stg exchange rate on the net and this past few months it is generally about the same as the last time I was in England about ten years ago. I remember sterling then was about 90p to the euro, now it is 87p or so to the euro, so it has got slightly stronger since then if anything. Not much difference anyway. And the ftse 100 is over 7100, that is still pretty high in the overall scheme of things, certainly in any of the decades until 2017 it was never as high.

youcantakethat

Borderhopper wrote: »

From going to a safe, reserve currency 3-4 years ago, to almost parity with the euro is a major currency shift

Almost parity? No way. 1 Pound sterling equals 1.15 Euro now, you can google it if you want. Plus the bank takes a few per cent commission on top of that. A lad was on the radio last week saying he had to give €11,700 to get £10,000 to buy a car in England. That is not "almost parity".

Akrasia

liamtech wrote: »

I think the point is that registered members of the Labor Party support Corbyn - so even if large amounts of the parliamentary Party was against him, the membership could keep him in

Corbyn is the result of Blair dragging the labor party away from left wing politics, and more toward a so-called champaigne socialism -

They used to support Corbyn, but he is a liability now. 70% of labour voters oppose brexit and want a 2nd referendum which Corbyn agreed to support if a general election wasnt viable. People do not like being lied to

Borderhopper

Ten years ago was the centre of the global recession, so to compare today's exchange rate with a snapshot of ten years ago isn't really that relevant, unless you want to compare a pre recessionary period with a recessionary period.

As prawnsambo says, it's more illustrative to compare pre and post Brexit exchange rates. 4 years ago, sterling would have been seen as a safe bet to invest in, a safe port in the storm. Not any more.

reslfj

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think attempts to dissuade European students from going to British universities are a real shame for both Britain and also European students themselves.

So do I, but the cost and the uncertainties of grants post Brexit creates a real and significant risk for students seeking UK education.

Apart from a Erasmus and the EU tuition fees seems to be significant problems for many.

The one thing Europe can least afford is not to educate our young people in areas they are good at and we need going forward.

Lars

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think attempts to dissuade European students from going to British universities are a real shame for both Britain and also European students themselves. One thing Britain does brilliantly is higher education with so many of its top universities (including my old uni - but no bragging!) dominating pan-European league tables.

I'd imagine then you should be able to freeform three positives from brexit with facts to back them up.

Like I have asked from you twice.

After all. You said that I wasn't being positive and there was things to look forward to. Positive things.

Go...

Imreoir2

youcantakethat wrote: »

I looked up the stg exchange rate on the net and this past few months it is generally about the same as the last time I was in England about ten years ago. I remember sterling then was about 90p to the euro, now it is 87p or so to the euro, so it has got slightly stronger since then if anything. Not much difference anyway. And the ftse 100 is over 7100, that is still pretty high in the overall scheme of things, certainly in any of the decades until 2017 it was never as high.

The FTSE always gains when the value of the pound drops, I don't recall the exact mechanism that is at play but I do recall the case being made that a surge in the value of the FTSE while the value of the pound declines is a symptom of an ailing economey in the UK.

listermint

reslfj wrote: »

So do I, but the cost and the uncertainties of grants post Brexit creates a real and significant risk for students seeking UK education.

Apart from a Erasmus and the EU tuition fees seems to be significant problems for many.

The one thing Europe can least afford is not to educate our young people in areas they are good at and we need going forward.

Lars

The mantle will be take up by universities just as good inside the EU.

There are losers here, obvious ones.

I've friends that left the UK research field due to funding removals. We can see where the losers are.

Akrasia

youcantakethat wrote: »

Almost parity? No way. 1 Pound sterling equals 1.15 Euro now, you can google it if you want. Plus the bank takes a few per cent commission on top of that. A lad was on the radio last week saying he had to give €11,700 to get £10,000 to buy a car in England. That is not "almost parity".

The Euro is 20 years old this year. At one stage the Euro traded at £1 to €1.71

In 2015, it was £1 to €1.41

jm08

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think attempts to dissuade European students from going to British universities are a real shame for both Britain and also European students themselves. One thing Britain does brilliantly is higher education with so many of its top universities (including my old uni - but no bragging!) dominating pan-European league tables.

They are not trying to dissuade - rather warn them that once out of the EU, fees will be a lot higher. EU used to have a cap on fees for EU members. There won't be the same funding either for research coming from the EU (and the more funding you can raise, the higher you make the top of the league tables).

Borderhopper

Gotta disagree youcantakethat, to go from 1.27 on the pound to 1.13 is almost parity, or further back, to 2007 to 1.34 on the pound.

Working in the north, colleagues living in the south are horrified by how much their pay has fallen in real terms over the past 2.5 years.

With regards to FTSE, as other, better informed, posters have said, the markets are assuming that no deal will be avoided. My personal opinion is that it can't. Only my opinion, but it's only prudent to plan

youcantakethat

Borderhopper wrote: »

Ten years ago was the centre of the global recession, so to compare today's exchange rate with a snapshot of ten years ago isn't really that relevant, unless you want to compare a pre recessionary period with a recessionary period.

As prawnsambo says, it's more illustrative to compare pre and post Brexit exchange rates. 4 years ago, sterling would have been seen as a safe bet to invest in, a safe port in the storm. Not any more.

I think the global recession affected the UK as well as Europe ten years ago, although perhaps not as badly as the British had the good sense to stay out of the Eurozone.
For most of the past ten years a euro would just have bought eighty something pence sterling. Same as today, it is 87 pence stg to the euro. Not a big change. Who knows what will happen? Italy is in recession again, will the rest of the Eurozone and the UK follow? If I had a £1000 stg or a €1000 euro I know which I would rather.

ancapailldorcha

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

She's a media hore.

If I say anymore it'll derail the thread away from Brexit.

No more insults please.

youcantakethat

Borderhopper wrote: »

With regards to FTSE, as other, better informed, posters have said, the markets are assuming that no deal will be avoided. My personal opinion is that it can't. Only my opinion, but it's only prudent to plan

Interesting you should say that, my brother in law works in Finance in London and he says that while they hope the EU will agree to a deal, they are preparing for a Hard Brexit but that they will be better off without Europe dragging them down, and that they will still be the sixth biggest economy in the world or something like that. Interesting to get a perspective from someone not subjected to the constant anti British media we get here.

FrancieBrady

youcantakethat wrote: »

Interesting you should say that, my brother in law works in Finance in London and he says that while they hope the EU will agree to a deal, they are preparing for a Hard Brexit but that they will be better off without Europe dragging them down, and that they will still be the sixth biggest economy in the world or something like that. Interesting to get a perspective from someone not subjected to the constant anti British media we get here.

The EU have 'agreed a deal'.

VinLieger

listermint wrote: »

I'd imagine then you should be able to freeform three positives from brexit with facts to back them up.

Like I have asked from you twice.

After all. You said that I wasn't being positive and there was things to look forward to. Positive things.

Go...

Personally I dont think folkstonian should be let away with posting any more of their nonsense until they at least attempt to answer this very reasonable request.

Borderhopper

Not really sure youcantakethat, at the minute I'd probably take £1000. After March maybe the €1000. But all my staff were fairly happy two years ago to be paid in sterling ( one managed to fund a 18 month holiday based on it) and are. Dry unhappy to be paid in sterling now.

Staying out of the euro zone per se didn't save the U.K. From talking to fairly high up members of HMRC, the saviours of the European (not exclusively EU) banking system was:

Alastair Darling-described as a calm head in a storm

BOE-devaluing GBP

Ireland-taking the hit through conversion of private debt to sovereign debt

listermint

youcantakethat wrote: »

Interesting you should say that, my brother in law works in Finance in London and he says that while they hope the EU will agree to a deal, they are preparing for a Hard Brexit but that they will be better off without Europe dragging them down, and that they will still be the sixth biggest economy in the world or something like that. Interesting to get a perspective from someone not subjected to the constant anti British media we get here.

Your brother will be out of a job.

Hope your ready to welcome him home. Because his nonsense is backed up by little fact.

The UK will have no access to services and will also have no trade deals of substance ready to go. Finance has left en masse. Anything left isn't there for optimisim, it's there because of the massive opportunity to asset strip and disaster capitalise.

Feels like you brother is malinformed

Borderhopper

I live in Northern Ireland so not sure if I'm I'm subject to anti British media! However, I am a scientist, so hypotheses have to be backed up with emperical evidence. I'm not finance based, so how does your BIL think that EU is holding U.K. bsck?