Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

Akrasia wrote: »

The Euro is 20 years old this year. At one stage the Euro traded at £1 to €1.71

In 2015, it was £1 to €1.41

I believe the reason for that 1.71 was the euro not being stable during its initial pre launch (before physical currency rollouts). It stabilised after that period.

The highest I saw was about 95p to the €1 at the worst points of the crash before recovering and hitting that high of 1.41 prior to the Brexit referendum.

It lost a significant amount of value in the post referendum and has dropped pretty close so far.
The only thing atm is the wait on if theres a hard crash. Once that becomes a certainty expect a significant selloff of sterling at that point.

lawred2

youcantakethat wrote: »

I think the global recession affected the UK as well as Europe ten years ago, although perhaps not as badly as the British had the good sense to stay out of the Eurozone.
For most of the past ten years a euro would just have bought eighty something pence sterling. Same as today, it is 87 pence stg to the euro. Not a big change. Who knows what will happen? Italy is in recession again, will the rest of the Eurozone and the UK follow? If I had a £1000 stg or a €1000 euro I know which I would rather.

GBP had fallen more against the dollar since 2007 than the Euro has. The devaluation is very real.

I pick 2007 as that was pre recessionary

youcantakethat

listermint wrote: »

Your brother will be out of a job.

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

youcantakethat

lawred2 wrote: »

The devaluation is very real.

I pick 2007 as that was pre recessionary

You are right in 2006 and 2007 you would get about 1.55 dollars or 1.6 dollars for a euro. Now, despite Trump being in the White house and all that that entails, we can only get 1.10 or 1.15 dollars for our euro. Maybe it is Trump building walls around the US that has made the dollar stronger against the euro, if the British build walls against the EU maybe sterling will get stringer against the euro too. Stranger things have happened. haha.

lawred2

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

Zero hour contracts... Almost 1m of them now in the UK. Almost 500% increase since the end of the last decade.

It's reported that near 50% of new jobs are in the gig economy i.e. self employment

Bollocks really and evidence of a massive expansion of the service sector with no real correlating increase in national output. Basically minimum wage jobs with no security or benefits.

eagle eye

lawred2 wrote:

Zero hour contracts... Almost 1m of them now in the UK. Almost 500% increase since the end of the last decade.

Over here we have everybody doing courses where they take over paying their jobseekers which takes them officially off welfare and we have near full employment which is bull.

Imreoir2

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

The UK economey has chronic problems with productivity, companies engage in outdated labour intensive work parctices rather than make capital investment in better tech. It keeps employment high, but it reduces efficiency accross the economey which means that people's incomes are relativly depressed.

This is not a Brexit problem, its a longterm pattern in the UK.

Seth Brundle

youcantakethat wrote: »

Interesting you should say that, my brother in law works in Finance in London and he says that while they hope the EU will agree to a deal, they are preparing for a Hard Brexit but that they will be better off without Europe dragging them down, and that they will still be the sixth biggest economy in the world or something like that. Interesting to get a perspective from someone not subjected to the constant anti British media we get here.

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

Your bro in law works in finance but isn't worried about Brexit?
He should be - if he's not then I'd seriously question his judgement!

Fionn1952

Seth Brundle wrote: »

youcantakethat wrote: »

Interesting you should say that, my brother in law works in Finance in London and he says that while they hope the EU will agree to a deal, they are preparing for a Hard Brexit but that they will be better off without Europe dragging them down, and that they will still be the sixth biggest economy in the world or something like that. Interesting to get a perspective from someone not subjected to the constant anti British media we get here.

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

Your bro in law works in finance but isn't worried about Brexit?
He should be - if he's not then I'd seriously question his judgement!

I suspect this, 'brother' doesn't actually exist.

youcantakethat

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Your bro in law works in finance but isn't worried about Brexit?

Do pay attention. I never said that. I was replying to listermint who said "
Your brother will be out of a job."
I replied "He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years."

I would say there are still some people who see leaving the EU as an opportunity, who wish to be free from paying a Europe which bullies them, as they see it.

Maybe he is worried about Brexit but not letting on. Maybe he has a plan. He thinks most of the EU is more ***** than the UK anyway. According to some surveys, less than half of Italians would vote to stay in the EU. And what will happen Greek debt? Time will tell.

Imreoir2

youcantakethat wrote: »

Do pay attention. I never said that. I was replying to listermint who said "
Your brother will be out of a job."
I replied "He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years."

I would say there are still some people who see leaving the EU as an opportunity, who wish to be free from paying a Europe which bullies them, as they see it.

Maybe he is worried about Brexit but not letting on. Maybe he has a plan. He thinks most of the EU is more ***** than the UK anyway. According to some surveys, less than half of Italians would vote to stay in the EU. And what will happen Greek debt? Time will tell.

According to some surveys more than half of British people would vote to stay in the EU, but I guess the people don't always get what they want.

This brother in law makes for a very usefull rethorical tool, able to put out all and sundry opinions without ever having to stand over or justify them. Perhaps you could tell us your own opinions rather than someone elses.

Also, is he your brother or brother in law? Normally people don't confuse who they have a blood relationship with.

Hurrache

reslfj wrote: »

The Danish minister for higher education and research Tommy Ahlers (Liberal):

"You must reflect over the situation and maybe consider if your application should be directed to another country than Great Britain. Because there is a risk with it (study in the UK)" /(my translation)

Lars

Now I'm thoroughly confused as to which country I initially read the comments from. But it's now obvious it's more than one on the same train of thought.

youcantakethat

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Also, is he your brother or brother in law? Normally people don't confuse who they have a blood relationship with.

FYI he is my brother in law. It was another poster (listermint) who got confused and called him my brother. Not that a matters one iota if he is my brother in law or my brother.

youcantakethat

Imreoir2 wrote: »

According to some surveys more than half of British people would vote to stay in the EU, but I guess the people don't always get what they want.

Well according to "The New European", "Almost a third of French and Italian people think the UK has already left the EU, a new survey has shown." Shows what they know.

Strazdas

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

Something that doesn't get mentioned is that the UK benefits system is one of the absolute worst in Europe and nearly impossible to live on : a paltry £72 a week, when it is multiples of that in most EU states (£172 in Ireland and higher than that in many other countries)

youcantakethat

Strazdas wrote: »

Something that doesn't get mentioned is that the UK benefits system is one of the absolute worst in Europe and nearly impossible to live on : a paltry £72 a week, when it is multiples of that in most EU states (£172 in Ireland and higher than that in many other countries)

It is amazing so many hundreds of thousands of people have wanted to go to the UK at all. I wonder if the camp in Calais is still going? Maybe the refugees will be going the other direction soon?

Imreoir2

youcantakethat wrote: »

It is amazing so many hundreds of thousands of people have wanted to go to the UK at all. I wonder if the camp in Calais is still going? Maybe the refugees will be going the other direction soon?

Soon? It is already hapening! There are already plenty of stories of EU nationals who have decided to leave Brexit Britain behind and Britions who have had to move the another EU country for work/to keep their own business going.

Folkstonian

VinLieger wrote: »

Personally I dont think folkstonian should be let away with posting any more of their nonsense until they at least attempt to answer this very reasonable request.

‘Nonsense’. Right ho. Maybe you should take a class in advanced moderating, then they may allow you to decide what I can and can’t post.

I’ve avoided responding to the other guy’s demand because a) it’s mildly amusing to see him carry on about it like he can actually make ‘demands’ and expect people to react kindly and b) the percieved benefits of leaving the EU are well known and roundly dismissed out of hand, rendering it a waste of time to even type them. This is thread 7 on the topic, anything original that’s going to be said has already been said, many times over

Popeleo

youcantakethat wrote: »

It is amazing so many hundreds of thousands of people have wanted to go to the UK at all. I wonder if the camp in Calais is still going? Maybe the refugees will be going the other direction soon?

That depends on why you think most of are going to the UK. Is it to claim asylum, where they could have in many countries on their journey? Or to work illegally in an English-speaking country with no national ID cards?

J Mysterio

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1099347068739567616

In the event of a hard Brexit Spanish Universities are canceling Erasmus grants.

Very sad. As I mentioned in thread about two years ago, I undertook Erasmus and found it a hugely enriching experience. During this I studied alongside a lovely girl from Manchester, who also had a great time. That will now be lost to future generations of the UK, and we will all be the poorer for it. Nice one Theresa May. Thanks Conservatives. Cheers Corbyn.

Folkstonian

Folkstonian wrote: »

‘Nonsense’. Right ho. Maybe you should take a class in advanced moderating, then they may allow you to decide what I can and can’t post.

I’ve avoided responding to the other guy’s demand because a) it’s mildly amusing to see him carry on about it like he can actually make ‘demands’ and expect people to react kindly and b) the percieved benefits of leaving the EU are well known and roundly dismissed out of hand, rendering it a waste of time to even type them. This is thread 7 on the topic, anything original that’s going to be said has already been said, many times over

I have never seen benefits listed anywhere since the referendum. Post them so I can at least see why people are a fan of it.

Enzokk

youcantakethat wrote: »

Dunno about that. The pound sterling has not changed much in the past ten years, anytime my cousins ever had to buy sterling they say they usually only got 80 something pence sterling, same as now. And unemployment is less in the UK than in the Eurozone. The UK want their independence from Europe, many in Britain see Europe as greedy bullies, we should be able to understand that. I would say Britain will carry it off, they generally do best when their back is against the wall. I'll be more worried when the EU splits up, will the new proposed EU army be able to hold it together?

So close, if only you had said uncontrolled immigration I would have had the Brexiteer Bingo. Ah well, there is always tomorrow.

youcantakethat wrote: »

I looked up the stg exchange rate on the net and this past few months it is generally about the same as the last time I was in England about ten years ago. I remember sterling then was about 90p to the euro, now it is 87p or so to the euro, so it has got slightly stronger since then if anything. Not much difference anyway. And the ftse 100 is over 7100, that is still pretty high in the overall scheme of things, certainly in any of the decades until 2017 it was never as high.

If you take anything in just a snapshot you could read anything into it. I mean 10 years ago Amazon shares was less than 100 USD, today it is more than 1500 USD per share. Its price has more than doubled in the past 2 years, what does that tell you? I have no clue, but I am sure you brother in law would be able to tell you and the effects it would have on the US economy.

As for the FTSE 100, that is for the 100 companies listed with the highest market capitalisation on the LSE. They are the biggest companies in the UK by market value and are mainly internationally focused. So a fall in say the value of the GBP will mostly have an positive effect on them, but that is not an indicator of how the UK economy is doing.

The same with the exchange rate between two currencies, taking only a snapshot in time will not mean much. I mean I could say that it has gone from 1.74 EUR to a GBP in 2000 to 1.14 now. What does that tell me, absolutely nothing other than it changes over time. What you do see is that it was around 1.45 EUR to a GBP just before the GFC in 2007/2008. Then it went down to levels very similar to now but it picked up in value again to around 1.40 EUR to a GBP just before the Brexit result came out. Since then it has been around 1.14 EUR to a GBP again.

What does that tell me? That Brexit has had the same impact as the world financial markets almost imploding if you look at the currency exchange between the GBP and EUR. But you would be better off asking your brother in law in finance as he would have a better idea, or at least he should. Then again what do people in finance know, they were all in Enron stock when they should have known better.

youcantakethat wrote: »

I think the global recession affected the UK as well as Europe ten years ago, although perhaps not as badly as the British had the good sense to stay out of the Eurozone.
For most of the past ten years a euro would just have bought eighty something pence sterling. Same as today, it is 87 pence stg to the euro. Not a big change. Who knows what will happen? Italy is in recession again, will the rest of the Eurozone and the UK follow? If I had a £1000 stg or a €1000 euro I know which I would rather.

Your post has brought me to this article,

Italy Suffers Recession Alone in Economic, Political Isolation

Italy’s recession at the end of 2018 was almost unprecedented among the euro area’s major members and provided further evidence of the self-inflicted damage to the economy.

While mighty Germany only barely avoided the same fate, its weakness was largely due to one-time effects in the car industry. Italy’s two straight quarterly contractions highlight deeper issues; they also mean it’s the region’s only major economy to slip into recession alone. That amounts to a dubious distinction, as shown in the chart below.

So you are correct that Italy going into recession is a worry and Germany experiencing a slowdown is the last thing the world economy needs, then again these things ebbs and flows so we will have to wait and see what it actually means. If you look at the other projected growth figures for EUR countries, it is clear why they EU wants to ensure Italy doesn't drag the rest of them down with them due to their domestic policies.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

‘Nonsense’. Right ho. Maybe you should take a class in advanced moderating, then they may allow you to decide what I can and can’t post.

I’ve avoided responding to the other guy’s demand because a) it’s mildly amusing to see him carry on about it like he can actually make ‘demands’ and expect people to react kindly and b) the percieved benefits of leaving the EU are well known and roundly dismissed out of hand, rendering it a waste of time to even type them. This is thread 7 on the topic, anything original that’s going to be said has already been said, many times over

Is that just a long winded way of saying that you don't know what the benefits are or that they are so thin that they will not stand up to scrutiny so you want to avoid posting them?

jochenstacker

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

Because you're making the same mistake as any Eurosceptic, you're looking at the EU as a monolithic block. It's not. It's an alliance of sovereign countries* and you have to look at separate countries.
Unemployment rate in the UK is 4%.
Germany is 3.4%. France is over 9% just goes to show you make your own fortune. You can't blame the EU for your own decisions.
Just FYP.

* so the entire"taking back our sovereignty" argument is hogwash anyway.

edit:
I see absolutely nothing wrong with an EU army. The US can't be trusted as an ally right now and Putin has expansionist aspirations. It would be insane to the extreme for EU armies not to cooperate.
A lot of people try to paint this as millions of young men being pressed into the Wehrmacht to be slaughtered in WWIII outside Stalingrad.
It's brain-dead anti EU propaganda.

20silkcut

youcantakethat wrote: »

He does not seem too worried. He say UK unemployment is still half of the EU unemployment rate, even after the past few years. He asked me if the EU is so good, why is the unemployment rate so high in many EU countries yet low in the UK?

There is no doubt about it if Britain adopts a full free trade economy it will prosper beyond belief. But it will be such an unbalanced prosperity that the pain that some sections of society in Britain will have to take will cause massive long term instability. Wealth is one thing people don’t like sharing. And it never trickles down but becomes ever more concentrated in the hands of a few. Leading to resentment and instability. The trade policies which the likes of Patrick minford and the hard brexiteeers wish to follow are nothing new. Adam Smith is dead over 200 years. Why hasn’t every country in the world adopted a full free trade economy at this stage???

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

I have never seen benefits listed anywhere since the referendum. Post them so I can at least see why people are a fan of it.

The benefits are not economic, but sovereignty and independence are worth the price to some.

Everyone here sneers at these as benefits of Brexit, but these are the same reasons Switzerland, Norway and Sweden put the brakes on full membership of the EU, and I don't hear people slagging them off for it.

If the UK ends up in a Norway style arrangement, I think that would be a fair reflection of the referendum result.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

‘Nonsense’. Right ho. Maybe you should take a class in advanced moderating, then they may allow you to decide what I can and can’t post.

I’ve avoided responding to the other guy’s demand because a) it’s mildly amusing to see him carry on about it like he can actually make ‘demands’ and expect people to react kindly and b) the percieved benefits of leaving the EU are well known and roundly dismissed out of hand, rendering it a waste of time to even type them. This is thread 7 on the topic, anything original that’s going to be said has already been said, many times over

As expected. The positives that you yourself posted to exist , simply don't.
.I asked you to post the positives because you said there was some when you responded to me. As per forum rules you were asked to provide evidence to back up your own claims.

I was not demanding anything but the minimum required of such a forum.

So basically there are no positives. Your current stance is nothing more than bluster and a true example as any of British exceptionalism. But sure it's the EUs fault isn't it...

Popeleo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The benefits are not economic, but sovereignty and independence are worth the price to some.

Everyone here sneers at these as benefits of Brexit, but these are the same reasons Switzerland, Norway and Sweden put the brakes on full membership of the EU, and I don't hear people slagging them off for it.

If the UK ends up in a Norway style arrangement, I think that would be a fair reflection of the referendum result.

Sweden are full EU members, just with an opt-out from using the Euro.

Edit: I thought they had an opt-out like Denmark and the UK. Looks like they don't, but they are in no rush to join the Eurozone.

Calina

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The benefits are not economic, but sovereignty and independence are worth the price to some.

Everyone here sneers at these as benefits of Brexit, but these are the same reasons Switzerland, Norway and Sweden put the brakes on full membership of the EU, and I don't hear people slagging them off for it.

If the UK ends up in a Norway style arrangement, I think that would be a fair reflection of the referendum result.

Norway style arrangement has less input to decision making.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The FTSE always gains when the value of the pound drops, I don't recall the exact mechanism that is at play but I do recall the case being made that a surge in the value of the FTSE while the value of the pound declines is a symptom of an ailing economey in the UK.

Most of the FTSE 100 companies are international so most of their income is in dollars or euros or other foreign currencies.

When the pound goes down , that foreign income translates into more pounds so the share price goes up.

Also when the pound goes down shares (or Gatwick airport) cost less euros or dollars to buy.

Pound goes one way which will force the FTSE the other, it's not news.
Unless there's a step change or both are moving in the same direction.


Look at the FTSE 250, it's got more companies that depend on UK income.