Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

DrumSteve

Inquitus wrote: »

It's a question of the UK thinking that the EU will blink, but certainly both sides can stare each out other into a no deal, personally I cannot see the EU budging.

I don't think we can afford to blink now; but this is a well established tactic the british have used for years.

It's also the reason there can be no time limit on the back stop.

alloywheel

Do not forget the EU zone has been the slowest growing of all the world economies, slower than the UK even. Italy has re-entered recession. In Greece, unemployment remains at an eye-watering 18.1%...

alloywheel

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

EdgeCase

What I don't understand about May is why she doesn't just use the crisis as an opportunity to deal with both the far right and far left. She's in a perfect position, if she weren't so buried in internal party wrangling, to pull support from the centre of Labour and lead a pragmatic coalition government. She could sideline both her own party's extremest wing(s) and probably take out Corbyn and the far left of Labour while she was at it.

She really never made the transition from Tory Party Leader to British Prime Minister.

Effectively she's allowed the country to be run in line with some kind of UKIP and DUP polices.

Tacitus Kilgore

alloywheel wrote: »

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

Without the EU the UK would not have prospered so well over the last 40 or so years.

And the UK's response - voting to leave and making things even tougher for everyone involved - mostly themselves.

Tell me how

alloywheel wrote: »

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

Think this is more relevant

Info

The UK’s growth has exceeded the US while tracking it, even since the crisis of 2008. This makes it hard to argue that the EU is dragging the UK down. Alternatively, compare this to the UK’s performance during the “glory days” of the Empire from 1872 to 1914. Back then Britain’s per capita growth was only 0.9% per year, in contrast to its robust 2.1% since joining the EU.

The UK has benefitted significantly from being in the EU.



More info

Why did Britain join? For various reasons. Because De Gaulle left, the Commonwealth could not compete, Heath defeated Wilson, the free trade area integration model sunk. But above all, Britain joined because joining the European project was perceived to be a way to stop its relative economic decline. In 1950, UK’s per capita GDP was almost a third larger than the EU6 average; in 1973, it was about 10% below; it has been comparatively stable ever since. On this basis, joining the EU worked – it helped to halt Britain’s relative economic decline vis-à-vis the EU6.

Seth Brundle

alloywheel wrote: »

Do not forget the EU zone has been the slowest growing of all the world economies, slower than the UK even. Italy has re-entered recession. In Greece, unemployment remains at an eye-watering 18.1%...

...and it will look like they're having Christmas when the UK slides right past them all!
At least the EU countries will be able to trade with all the world's strong economies. How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?

alloywheel wrote: »

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

yeah yeah yeah the nasty unelected EU making it harder for the UK to destroy itself.
You're like a broken record with your ill-informed nonsense.

Hurrache

alloywheel wrote: »

Do not forget the EU zone has been the slowest growing of all the world economies, slower than the UK even. Italy has re-entered recession. In Greece, unemployment remains at an eye-watering 18.1%...

Before we move on, any answers yet for all those questions you were asked earlier?

alloywheel

"Without the EU the UK would not have prospered so well over the last 40 or so years."?
You think nobody outside the EEC / EU has prospered this past 40 years? Look at the economies of other places in the world who have thrived this past 40 years, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong..

One thing for certain, without the UK the bullies in Europe would have ensured Europe was not the same in the ear;y and mis 20th century without the UK. Who else stood defended Europe against the Kaiser, Nazism and the Russians during the cold war?

alloywheel

"How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?"
Lots of countries trade quite well on WTO terms.

Seth Brundle

alloywheel wrote: »

One thing for certain, without the UK the bullies in Europe would have ensured Europe was not the same in the ear;y and mis 20th century without the UK.

How exactly has the UK been bullied?

DrumSteve

alloywheel wrote: »

"Without the EU the UK would not have prospered so well over the last 40 or so years."?
You think nobody outside the EEC / EU has prospered this past 40 years? Look at the economies of other places in the world who have thrived this past 40 years, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong..

One thing for certain, without the UK the bullies in Europe would have ensured Europe was not the same in the ear;y and mis 20th century without the UK. Who else stood defended Europe against the Kaiser, Nazism and the Russians during the cold war?

The Americans?

Seth Brundle

alloywheel wrote: »

"How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?"
Lots of countries trade quite well on WTO terms.

Please educate us and name some then.

DrumSteve

alloywheel wrote: »

"How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?"
Lots of countries trade quite well on WTO terms.

How many of them trade exclusively on WTO Terms? 1 by my count.

spacecoyote

alloywheel wrote: »

"How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?"
Lots of countries trade quite well on WTO terms.

Could you illustrate how the UK will trade under the WTO terms (What tariffs you think they should apply, etc...)

And maybe describe how those terms Will improve the UKs position relative to the current terms they trade under as an EU member?

alloywheel

"The Americans?" Late to the party DrumSteve, in both WW1 and WW2, but to be fair they did help defend Europe from communism after that. And in more recent times, as I said do you think nobody outside the EEC / EU has prospered this past 40 years? Look at the economies of other places in the world who have thrived this past 40 years, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong..

fash

alloywheel wrote: »

One thing for certain, without the UK the bullies in Europe would have ensured Europe was not the same in the ear;y and mis 20th century without the UK. Who else stood defended Europe against the Kaiser, Nazism and the Russians during the cold war?

There are many who argue that the British started WWI (which led to the collapse of the Russian empire and rise of communism) and the terms of the Versailles treaty (imposed by British and French) led to the rise of the Nazis and WWII.
So don't you agree that it is all the Brits fault? (communism, Nazism and the 2 world wars).

Also please answer the previous questions. I see you ignore them.

Hurrache

alloywheel wrote: »

"The Americans?" Late to the party DrumSteve, in both WW1 and WW2, but to be fair they did help defend Europe from communism after that. And in more recent times, as I said do you think nobody outside the EEC / EU has prospered this past 40 years? Look at the economies of other places in the world who have thrived this past 40 years, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong..

So, the countries thriving on WTO rules are.....

breatheme

alloywheel wrote: »

Do not forget the EU zone has been the slowest growing of all the world economies, slower than the UK even. Italy has re-entered recession. In Greece, unemployment remains at an eye-watering 18.1%...

You totally, completely ignored my previous reply to you. How about you address it?

And besides, contributions of Member States are not used to pay benefits in other Member States, they are used to fund specific EU projects (e.g. Galileo, Regional and Development Projects, etc.) so the UK leaving won't have any impact on Italy and Greece (save for the small percentage of business lost because they won't be able to export as much into the UK - although if they are going to swing the doors wide open then that won't be an issue in the short term.)

alloywheel

"There are many who argue that the British started WWI " Nothing to do with Germany invading little Belgium etc? Generations of British people have saved and helped Europe, be it from the Kaiser, Nazism (who stood alone against the Axis Powers in Europe in the early part of WW2?) Communism or by financially helping the EEC /EU (second biggest net contributor).

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

"There are many who argue that the British started WWI " Nothing to do with Germany invading little Belgium etc? Generations of British people have saved and helped Europe, be it from the Kaiser, Nazism (who stood alone against the Axis Powers in Europe in the early part of WW2?) Communism or by financially helping the EEC /EU (second biggest net contributor).

Would you mind learning to quote other posters properly? You appear to be quoting people, but there's no way anyone can check whether you're quoting accurately or not. There's a big quote button under every post to help you do this.

10000maniacs

alloywheel wrote: »

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

So give them full access to the golf course and clubhouse without being a member?
If they did that, another 10 EU countries would want that too.
No backstop = no deal.
Watered down backstop = no deal.
End of.

Christy42

alloywheel wrote: »

"There are many who argue that the British started WWI " Nothing to do with Germany invading little Belgium etc? Generations of British people have saved and helped Europe, be it from the Kaiser, Nazism (who stood alone against the Axis Powers in Europe in the early part of WW2?) Communism or by financially helping the EEC /EU (second biggest net contributor).

You have previously stated the UK would not pay a cent on the border. Then you mentioned the customs arrangements that have been on the border in the past and technological solutions. Can you please explain how they are free?

The Kaiser had no serious designs on conquering Europe. WWI was a cluster**** by all involved with each side egging each other on where everyone assumed there would be a small scrap, a few kilometers would change hands and everyone would go home. They were wrong.

The only bearing that has on today is that the EU has been the single most effective means of preventing further war in Western Europe. I don't care what the UK did in WWII. Those people are not still in charge. In WWII the UK knew what it wanted. Today it doesn't have a bloody clue. WWII UK would give the current UK a clip around the ears and tell it to have some sense.

FrancieBrady

The UK wish to leave and damage the EU by so doing.

Expectations of the Brexiteers: That the EU only remember the good things the UK has done and forgets all the vetoes, opt outs and other restricting measures the UK contributed and should offer them all the cake and unicorns they feel they deserve. They should also forget the 'small' matter of an internationally binding agreement that they signed up to so as they can roll over for the DUP, a small unionist party which holds the UK government by the throat.

Yeh ok. :rolleyes:

Inquitus

alloywheel wrote: »

"How many trade deals will the UK have on April 1st?"
Lots of countries trade quite well on WTO terms.

The moment when you know for sure someone has no idea what they are talking about.

robinph

alloywheel wrote: »

... financially helping the EEC /EU (second biggest net contributor).

Where are you pulling that stat from?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union#Funding_by_member_states

4th in terms of total cash paid into the EU and only 50% of what Germany is paying into the EU.

alloywheel

Francie, Yes the UK wish to leave but they do not want to damage the EU by so doing. It is in their own interest that the EU countries prosper, as every country benefits by having wealthy neighbours, nor poor ones.

jm08

alloywheel wrote: »

Without the contribution the UK has made, the EU will be even worse off. And the EU's response: make things even tougher for everyone involved.

Not necessarily - one third of the EU's income comes from the tax on goods coming from 3rd countries into the EU. UK's exports to the EU were worth £274 billion in 2017. Not sure what the EU's cut is, but if one third of their budget comes from this tax, it must be fairly substantial.

breatheme

jm08 wrote: »

Not necessarily - one third of the EU's income comes from the tax on goods coming from 3rd countries into the EU. UK's exports to the EU were worth £274 billion in 2017. Not sure what the EU's cut is, but if one third of their budget comes from this tax, it must be fairly substantial.

The EU* will, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, still get some of the UK's budget contribution via the tariffs on whatever goods they can still manage to manufacture.

*Actually it'll be the customer in the EU, but still. I'm stockpiling on tea over here, sadly.

FrancieBrady

alloywheel wrote: »

Francie, Yes the UK wish to leave but they do not want to damage the EU by so doing. It is in their own interest that the EU countries prosper, as every country benefits by having wealthy neighbours, nor poor ones.

And that is why they got the deal that they accepted. Until May being in hoc to the DUP, scuppered it.

That is for Theresa to sort out, not Ireland and not the rest of the EU.