Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Gove is definitely one of the saner choices if you can get over his opposition to the GFA. Someone like Rees-Mogg would be infinitely worse and might even split the Tories though that might not be a bad thing.

Whats bizarre about this is at the time of the referendum Gove was thought of as the worst of the worst of brexiteers but that was before Mogg and the ERG had really ramped up their lies

lawred2

Inquitus wrote: »

I think there is a good chance parliament will take some sort of control of the process next week, if May comes back empty handed from Brussels, there is a majority in favour of ruling out no deal.

What can TM realistically come back with that will move the HoC to support her?

I can't see it. A few legal addendums about the backstop isn't going to move much surely?

Inquitus

lawred2 wrote: »

What can TM realistically come back with that will move the HoC to support her?

I can't see it. A few legal addendums about the backstop isn't going to move much surely?

The only way she comes back with something that's enough to get the "Deal" through the HoC is if the EU cave on the backstop, something I personally can't see happening.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well there could be a consesus for revoking Art 50. If the choice is 'No Deal' or 'Revoke' the choice would be 'Revoke' within the HoC.

The HoC won't vote for revoke without a statement as to what happens after revocation surely!?

And that just brings us back to what HoC doesn't want rather than what it does...

Inquitus

More delay tactics. Meaningful vote pushed back 2 more weeks until @ Mar 12th

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/may-delays-crucial-house-of-commons-vote-on-crumbling-brexit-deal-906721.html

Ms May confirmed the delay to British reporters as she landed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the first ever summit between the E an the Arab League.

Asked about widely leaked reporters in British Sunday newspapers today that the "meaningful" vote ;- which unlike similar votes a fortnight ago carries parliamentary process weight - will be pushed back, Ms May confirmed it is her intention to do so.

And, despite genuine fears holding the vote just two and a half weeks before Brexit comes into effect runs the real risk of mayhem, the British prime minister said she will be delaying the vote until this time.

"My team will be back in Brussels again this coming week. As a result, we won't bring a meaningful vote to parliament this week, but we will ensure that that happens by March 12," Ms May said.

Also in the Torygraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/24/theresa-may-delays-brexit-vote-fortnight-refuses-censure-ministers/

Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/theresa-may-postpones-meaningful-vote-on-final-brexit-deal

Strazdas

VinLieger wrote: »

Whats bizarre about this is at the time of the referendum Gove was thought of as the worst of the worst of brexiteers but that was before Mogg and the ERG had really ramped up their lies

I've always seen Gove as nearly a moderate compared to the complete loons in the ERG (Rees-Mogg, IDS, Redwood, Bone, Bridgen, Raab etc, not to mention Paisley, Wilson and Kate Hoey).

Silent Running

A second referendum is quickly fading as an option to solve the impasse. There now seems to be a theme running through some of the population that Brexit has turned into a battle for Britain.

There seems to be a need to win at any cost, and anyone not keeping the line would be seen as a traitor. This will probably lead to 'VICTORY' headlines in the papers after exit day.

Bottom line is that a second vote could result in an even greater lead for leave.

Source of this feeling is anecdotal. I had some heated conversations with normally rational people in the UK during a recent visit.

road_high

Inquitus wrote: »

I think there is a good chance parliament will take some sort of control of the process next week, if May comes back empty handed from Brussels, there is a majority in favour of ruling out no deal.

Lets hope not. The senseless damage to the uk economy has been severe and time a halt was called by someone sane

road_high

Silent Running wrote: »

A second referendum is quickly fading as an option to solve the impasse. There now seems to be a theme running through some of the population that Brexit has turned into a battle for Britain.

There seems to be a need to win at any cost, and anyone not keeping the line would be seen as a traitor. This will probably lead to 'VICTORY' headlines in the papers after exit day.

Bottom line is that a second vote could result in an even greater lead for leave.

Source of this feeling is anecdotal. I had some heated conversations with normally rational people in the UK during a recent visit.

Keep calm and carry on like it’s the blitz. Meanwhile thousands of job losses rack up in blue chip employees like Honda.

I think a second referendum could be even higher leave, so deluded and removed from reality the general population are. And they hate Europe

Inquitus

road_high wrote: »

I think a second referendum could be even higher leave, so deluded and removed from reality the general population are. And they hate Europe

The Polls show a meaningful shift to remain, whether that translates into a remain win in a 2nd referendum is another matter.

road_high

Inquitus wrote: »

The Polls show a meaningful shift to remain, whether that translates into a remain win in a 2nd referendum is another matter.

I think it’d want to be 60% plus for a period of time to get through.

gooch2k9

Inquitus wrote: »

More delay tactics. Meaningful vote pushed back 2 more weeks until @ Mar 12th

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/may-delays-crucial-house-of-commons-vote-on-crumbling-brexit-deal-906721.html



Also in the Torygraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/24/theresa-may-delays-brexit-vote-fortnight-refuses-censure-ministers/

Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/theresa-may-postpones-meaningful-vote-on-final-brexit-deal

Did she not promise a vote before the end of the month? Surely some anti no deal Tories have to walk now.

Strazdas

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Did she not promise a vote before the end of the month? Surely some anti no deal Tories have to walk now.

I'd nearly place a bet it won't be held on March 12th. If May has her way, she'll try and hold it about 24 hours before the UK is due to leave.

Inquitus

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd nearly place a bet it won't be held on March 12th. If May has her way, she'll try and hold it about 24 hours before the UK is due to leave.

Yep, sadly this is her only tactic at this point, a last minute vote for her deal, or chaos.

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd nearly place a bet it won't be held on March 12th. If May has her way, she'll try and hold it about 24 hours before the UK is due to leave.

We'll see major change this week imo. A good few more defections and a major push to take No Deal out of the equation.

UsedToWait

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll see major change this week imo. A good few more defections and a major push to take No Deal out of the equation.

Didn't Rudd and the other two cabinet ministers say they would take action if May tried to delay things this week?

An Ciarraioch

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd nearly place a bet it won't be held on March 12th. If May has her way, she'll try and hold it about 24 hours before the UK is due to leave.

Peston saying the date has been chosen because Hammond gives his spring statement the day after, and this would be converted into an emergency budget in the absence of a deal.

Thargor

prawnsambo wrote: »

I really don't understand the 'vast sums of money' argument at all. The amount that's paid into the EU by the UK, barely gets over the 1% of GDP mark. And it doesn't include the direct payments made to agriculture or structural funds that come back into the UK. And Norway pay the same amount per capita as the UK.

And it's not a payment that just gets absorbed and buys no value for the UK. As the UK are now finding out. It pays for a centralised bureaucracy that delivers economies of scale in many areas that the UK will now have to pay on their own. Thousands of new civil servants are now being deployed into areas that the EU used to do for them. 7,000 at the last count (and I haven't been keeping up to date on that for a few months). It's estimated that this alone will wipe out any benefit of not making those payments in the future.

And that's before you get into the benefit of having a massive bloc negotiating trade deals on your behalf. One that can take it or leave it if the terms don't suit. It seems to me like the guy who wants to leave a golf society because he reckons he'll get better green fee deals than the society will.

How many times have you seen this point made in British media? Or put to Farage/Johnson etc? Ive never seen it, not once on Question Time or Newsnight or anything, its actually amazing.

liamtech

SO she just decides to delay and prolong the uncertainty - and like many of you have said, try for a last minute deal - i dont think it will work

Labor will vote no
ERG will vote no(assuming she comes back with the backstop which we assume she will as its the only option)
SNP will vote no
TIG will vote no
DUP will vote no (assuming she comes back with the backstop which we assume she will as its the only option)

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll see major change this week imo. A good few more defections and a major push to take No Deal out of the equation.

I sincerely hope your correct, and that the 3 cabinet ministers do resign in protest. This needs to be the week of action i would say

FrancieBrady

UsedToWait wrote: »

Didn't Rudd and the other two cabinet ministers say they would take action if May tried to delay things this week?

The time for a lot of MP's to stop talking and start doing is fast approaching.

road_high

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6737695/The-Business-Secretary-hints-offer-car-giant-Honda-millions-stay-Britain.html

Sorry for DM article, but if true this is going to open doors for a new Brexit phenomenon
Large companies could make noises about leaving due to Brexit, then media goes wild, then Tories throw millions at them.

I wouldn’t be betting the kitchen sink on that one- there are dozens of countries competing for this investment- stability and certainty one of the key attractions.
They don’t just make major announcements like this as blackmail for non existent grants, they do it to protect their bottomline and viability.

reslfj

RobMc59 wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Galileo GPS high availability is so vital to UK defence that the UK insisted that it wouldn't be available to non-EU countries.

So Norway doesn't get access to Galileo. That alone is going to cost the UK £5Bn to replace.

...
As regards Norway, what do they use instead of Galileo for GPS?

"Norway takes part in Galileo through the EEA agreement."
https://www.romsenter.no/eng/Focus-Areas/Satellite-Navigation

The cost of a fully operational Galileo system is much more than £5bn.
There are also problems with getting unused frequencies for a UK system - I hear.

Lars

listermint

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6737695/The-Business-Secretary-hints-offer-car-giant-Honda-millions-stay-Britain.html

Sorry for DM article, but if true this is going to open doors for a new Brexit phenomenon
Large companies could make noises about leaving due to Brexit, then media goes wild, then Tories throw millions at them.

The British government throwing money at anyone doesn't make JIT production lines go away.

The problem is access, delays and costs . All three combined are the issue and brexit shoots access in the head and throws production and shipping delays into overdrive whilst increasing costs

road_high

listermint wrote: »

The British government throwing money at anyone doesn't make JIT production lines go away.

The problem is access, delays and costs . All three combined are the issue and brexit shoots access in the head and throws production and shipping delays into overdrive whilst increasing costs

Brexit is now a religious dogma. All realities like JIT and tariffs are seen as trivial matters far outweighed by the amazing opps coming after March 29.
I saw Leave means Leave guy saying on tv that investment and support for multinationals is folly and should be diverted only to small, family type businesses instead. It’s like half of England has entered a parallel universe.
I think it’s a perfect opportunity for our IDA to sweep up some investment that would have otherwise gone to the UK such is the toxic business environment they’ve cooked up.

Is there much happening in the next week or two? I've lost track. Feels like a long slog with not much going on.

An Ciarraioch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is there much happening in the next week or two? I've lost track. Feels like a long slog with not much going on.

There's the Cooper-Letwin amendment on Wednesday, which could see Parliament seek an extension if there's no deal in sight, also a Kyle-Wilson amendment, which would see May's deal face a referendum, but that isn't expected to pass.

road_high

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There's the Cooper-Letwin amendment on Wednesday, which could see Parliament seek an extension if there's no deal in sight, also a Kyle-Wilson amendment, which would see May's deal face a referendum, but that isn't expected to pass.

How likely is an extension?

EdgeCase

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6737695/The-Business-Secretary-hints-offer-car-giant-Honda-millions-stay-Britain.html

Sorry for DM article, but if true this is going to open doors for a new Brexit phenomenon
Large companies could make noises about leaving due to Brexit, then media goes wild, then Tories throw millions at them.

Throwing a few tens of millions at a problem like this will not resolve it. The UK Government has caused serious structural and regulatory changes that have made their business models no longer economically viable. A few grants are not going to solve those issues. Also £61 million being given to something the scale of Nissan is really not very much money at all.

Then you've got the fact that grant-aiding businesses would also potentially create issues for access to other markets as they'll be hit over illegal state aid either though trade deals or the WTO. Most companies don't want to be involved in that kind of mess if they don't have to be.

Thirdly, they can't sustainably continue to just use tax payers' money to bail out corporates who they've put into an awkward position. They only have a limited amount of money before they'd start going into serious deficit spending.

Water John

Unless the Parliament do a complete cluster****, an extension is inevitable.

gooch2k9

Cooper-Letwin is non-binding is it not? Even if it passes May will plough on with the plan.