Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There's the Cooper-Letwin amendment on Wednesday, which could see Parliament seek an extension if there's no deal in sight

It's all fine for the HoC to delay withdrawal, but I thought a delay was bilateral between the UK and the EU, and only on the condition of some sort of movement towards a resolution of this drama. Right now, what would a delay to Brexit mean other than more pointless writhing?

PropJoe10

Inquitus wrote: »

Yep, sadly this is her only tactic at this point, a last minute vote for her deal, or chaos.

It's a disgraceful strategy that she's employing. No deal looking increasingly likely at the moment!

tuxy

Perhaps if enough large businesses leave the UK in the next 3 weeks she can get her deal through!
It will have to be real scary forecasts for the UK to turn that vote around in the HOC.

road_high

EdgeCase wrote: »

Throwing a few tens of millions at a problem like this will not resolve it. The UK Government has caused serious structural and regulatory changes that have made their business models no longer economically viable. A few grants are not going to solve those issues. Also £61 million being given to something the scale of Nissan is really not very much money at all.

Then you've got the fact that grant-aiding businesses would also potentially create issues for access to other markets as they'll be hit over illegal state aid either though trade deals or the WTO. Most companies don't want to be involved in that kind of mess if they don't have to be.

Thirdly, they can't sustainably continue to just use tax payers' money to bail out corporates who they've put into an awkward position. They only have a limited amount of money before they'd start going into serious deficit spending.

Nissan rather than taking the state aid decided to build in Japan instead- that’s how bad they view the prospect. A state can’t compete in the competitive globalized market with desperate attempts to paper over the massive cracks

RobMc59

PropJoe10 wrote: »

It's a disgraceful strategy that she's employing. No deal looking increasingly likely at the moment!

She thinks it's a very cunning plan-the "head in the sand strategy".

reslfj

Popeleo wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The benefits are not economic, but sovereignty and independence are worth the price to some.

Everyone here sneers at these as benefits of Brexit, but these are the same reasons Switzerland, Norway and Sweden put the brakes on full membership of the EU, and I don't hear people slagging them off for it.

Sweden are full EU members, just with an opt-out from using the Euro.

Edit: I thought they had an opt-out like Denmark and the UK. Looks like they don't, but they are in no rush to join the Eurozone.

Denmark and the UK has genuine treaty based opt-outs/-ins for the Euro and some other things. Denmark has however locked its kroner very close to the Euro as it earlier did with the DM.

Sweden and other non-Euro countries should join the Euro, when debt and total economy matches the Euro rules and requirements.

Norway has in addition to national feelings among voters two a bit more rational reasons for not being in the EU, but chose to pay the high (political) price for being in the EEA only.

1. Norway has a very large piece of the Atlantic as undisputed fishing zone - full 200 NM from about Tronheim all the way to the Russian border. As an EEA member it only has - more or less - to be a member of the CFP for the North Sea area (plus some agreement with the Faroe Islands)
   
2. Norway had a very real food shortage after WWII. It wants to keep its very inefficient and small farms. Being in a semi arctic and mountainous area, Norway has high to very high tariffs on imported food to protect farmers. The high price is paid for by Norway's huge oil/gas reserves.

Norway is in the SM and Schengen, but not in the CU. the NO/SE border has hard control of goods.

Switzerland has been an armed and neutral state since 1815. It did not join the UN before 2002 - even though more UN institutions have and had for years their main offices in Geneva.
Switzerland managed to get a trade relation with the EEC/EU that is legally very different to EEA (100+ agreements) but works much the same way as the Norwegian EEA deal.

Both Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are in Schengen. They must as part of the four freedoms of the SM accept FoM for people, too.
A 2014 referendum in Switzerland went against FoM, but the EU did not allow this, and Switzerland had in 2017/18 to accept FoM.

Lars

Kermit.de.frog

Can anyone nail down why exactly every time Varadkar says something on Brexit it seems to uniquely infuriate Brexiteers more than if Barnier or Tusk says something?

He seems to get under their skin more than the rest of them judging by the vitriol.

Same today.

Irishmale0399

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can anyone nail down why exactly every time Varadkar says something on Brexit it seems to uniquely infuriate Brexiteers more than if Barnier or Tusk says something?

He seems to get under their skin more than the rest of them judging by the vitriol.

Same today.

Problem is he is Irish....all Irish should follow the wishes of the UK....dont you know we are only wee Ireland, dependant on UK in every way.


They dont like the fact that we havent buckled under their spin and pressure. Ireland supported by the EU is another animal than Ireland on its own. Irish leadership in all this is playing a bloody blinder

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote:

She thinks it's a very cunning plan-the "head in the sand strategy".

To be fair to her given that there does not appear to be a concensus in the UK her idea may be to force a situation where its her deal or no deal. Its the only thing that makes sense unless you assume May wants a hard brexit. Now whether that strategy would work is a entirely separate question. Surely she has to have some strategy. For all the bad decisions you can't become PM and be a complete idiot(I hope anyway)

Sam Russell

Since last Tuesday, GBP vs Euro appears to have stabilised at around 86.8 p to €1, which is better that it has been in a while (Jan 28th).

So political uncertainty not affecting it.

Capt'n Midnight

road_high wrote: »

Keep calm and carry on like it’s the blitz. Meanwhile thousands of job losses rack up in blue chip employees like Honda.

But that's nothing to do with Brexit

Honda are leaving of their own Accord :pac:



Regardless it's 10% of UK car production. So that will hit the supply chain too. So the UK will get screwed over on Rules of Origin as only 20-25% of what goes into a car assembled in the UK is made in the UK. Unless both the EU and third country agree to consider EU made parts to count.

This from 2017 shows what a disaster Brexit could be for an industry with margins of just 2-4%
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committee/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-automotive-industry/oral/73855.html

The average car made in the UK purchases 44% of its components from UK suppliers, in other words 56% from abroad. For the purposes of free trade agreements, we look at something called originating content. That means, of that 44% that you are buying from your UK suppliers, how much actually comes from the UK, bearing in mind the supply chain, tier two, will still be buying from Europe, Asia and elsewhere. We are doing some work on that figure at the moment, and it is somewhere between 20% and 25%, which is a long way from the 55% to 60% threshold you would need to qualify for any free trade agreement.

And the emerging markets that will replace the EU ?
The general rule of manufacturing is to build close to where you sell.
And most of the UK car industry is foreign owned and the owners have factories all over.

reslfj

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can anyone nail down why exactly every time Varadkar says something on Brexit it seems to uniquely infuriate Brexiteers more than if Barnier or Tusk says something?

He seems to get under their skin more than the rest of them judging by the vitriol.

Seen from continental EU27, Leo Varadkar and the Irish have played their cards brilliantly, skillfully and well-timed.

The Irish are united politically, has prepared well and planned ahead.
They seeked EU support early on, and as an EU member they got it of course.

Lars

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

I've deleted a few posts about the Brexiteer/British media's view of Leo Varadkar. I don't think they met the standards of the charter as they are fundamentally unverifiable.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Honda are leaving of their own Accord

Luckily, puns are not against the charter!

boggerman1

Inquitus wrote: »

The Polls show a meaningful shift to remain, whether that translates into a remain win in a 2nd referendum is another matter.

Polls might show this but when u see on tv and listen to English radio ,leave the EU and to hell with the conquences.I wouldn't be confident at all of a 2nd ref producing the right result.

Bit cynical

briany wrote: »

It's all fine for the HoC to delay withdrawal, but I thought a delay was bilateral between the UK and the EU, and only on the condition of some sort of movement towards a resolution of this drama. Right now, what would a delay to Brexit mean other than more pointless writhing?

It is bilateral. The problem is that the EU can't force an extension; TM has to ask for one.

reslfj

tuxy wrote: »

Perhaps if enough large businesses leave the UK in the next 3 weeks she can get her deal through!
It will have to be real scary forecasts for the UK to turn that vote around in the HOC.

The WA deal in itself is not what is scary to the industry. It's one of two things:

1. No deal, chaos and the time it takes before the UK is forced to ask - no rather to beg - the EU27 for urgent help.
   
2. The governments inability to give up its 'red lines' and negotiate a future trade deal that can support 'Just In Time' production i.e 100% frictionless borders.

We are not talking just 3,500 jobs here. More like the better part of a million jobs lost within 2-4 years after the WA transition period.

Irish Praetorian

boggerman1 wrote: »

Polls might show this but when u see on tv and listen to English radio ,leave the EU and to hell with the conquences.I wouldn't be confident at all of a 2nd ref producing the right result.

I observe a similar phenomenon on question time, but ive noticed when you actually look at the audience although the brexiteers are noisy, they are not especially numerous.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can anyone nail down why exactly every time Varadkar says something on Brexit it seems to uniquely infuriate Brexiteers more than if Barnier or Tusk says something?

He seems to get under their skin more than the rest of them judging by the vitriol.

Same today.

What happened this time?

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

The Polls show a meaningful shift to remain, whether that translates into a remain win in a 2nd referendum is another matter.

By the time the unelected tax-dodging oligarchs who run the British media have done their job it will be clear to the world that there has never been a greater victim in the history of the planet than Brexit Britain, nor a greater perpetrator of injustice in the history of the planet than the European Union. Have no doubt about that. Scapegoating the EU for everything is the only certainty here.

Any vote will be about freedom for the long oppressed English plebs, led by the very same rightwing Tory elite which pushed mass immigration into Britain in the first place in order to bring labour costs down for England's business classes. But shhhh about that last clause. The enemy within is deflected upon the foreign scapegoat. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.


It is genuinely impressive that poor English people can be so ignorant and brainwashed that they're depending on representatives of Tory free market fundamentalism to get them out of the marginalisation and relative economic decline they have suffered from because of that very same rightwing economic ideology. Not forgetting the cosmetic addition of more Union Jacks from these "leaders" to the campaign to get them out. The precise same stupidity of Americans who voted for Trump because they've been screwed by globalisation is replicated in England today. False prophets, leading obtuse, desperate people. And the ineffably smug so-called "liberals" in these societies - very keen to push immigration as long as the newcomers were only threatening the economic position of poorer members of society - bear a huge amount of the blame for this rise. It will be a cold day in Hell before the liberal media get their army of wafflers to pen reflections on their own culpability for the rise of these populist opportunists. In 2019, the English have no genuine heroes, no genuine leaders. In Brechtian terms, they are definitely unhappy enough to need at least one.

Andrea: Unhappy is the land that breeds no hero.
Galileo: No, Andrea: Unhappy is the land that needs a hero. (Bertolt Brecht, Life of Galileo)

road_high

lawred2 wrote: »

What happened this time?

The British English media can control their serfs in their own country but beyond that most can see through their endless poison. Outside of the uk no one cares what they say or do, no less Leo Varadkar. They are a tiny part of the bigger world and I’m sure that’s how he would see it.

An Ciarraioch

Anyone for another 21 months of Brexit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021

boggerman1

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I observe a similar phenomenon on question time, but ive noticed when you actually look at the audience although the brexiteers are noisy, they are not especially numerous.

But they make more noise and repeat ad nauseam the same old cliques..leave means leave,lets go WTO etc,etc.simple phrases which stick unlike bloody experts.

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Anyone for another 21 months of Brexit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021

EU hoping that by the end of that the UK will have forgotten that they were Brexiting in the first place?

Irishmale0399

Can EU member states say no to the extension???

charlie14

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Can EU member states say no to the extension???

All 27 would need to agree to an extension.

road_high

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Anyone for another 21 months of Brexit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021

Oh dear god...

Irishmale0399

charlie14 wrote: »

All 27 would need to agree to an extension.

Can we pay any EU government to refuse it.....get the mess over and done with.

Leroy42

It makes sense to only extend for a longer period

What difference will a few weeks makes, TM has just thrown away the last two months.

THe upcoming elections really throw a spanner in the works and if the UK want an extension (they need it) then the demand should be that they commit to the EU for a reasonable amount of time.

You get the feeling that because the UK believe they can simply extend by whatever they want they aren't really taking things seriously in terms of deadlines.

Irishmale0399

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Can EU member states say no to the extension???

At this stage of the divorce, I take a different tack entirely: Can EU member states bring Brexit forward? The English and their long overdue post-Empire catharsis/ coming to terms with their real global position have been entertained for far too long. Kick them out ar nós na gaoithe and then the adult societies in Europe can get back to more normal societal problems rather than dealing with stuff that requires a very, very, very large army of psychologists and psychiatrists specialising in post-imperial mentalities, loss, death and dying. The biggesrlt imperial loss in world history needs the biggest after care treatment in world history.

They've turned into the greatest, most energy-draining, self-absorbed, parochial, insular drama queens on this planet. And entirely of their own making. We need to starve them of the oxygen of publicity.

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Anyone for another 21 months of Brexit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021

While it could offer a chance to have more time to negotiate, I see a couple of serious issues with this. Firstly, I believe the ERG zealots will make it their mission to make Theresa May's life as hard as possible if she delays Brexit. Delaying it by almost 2 years will mean the UK will participate in the EU elections and it would be another step to stopping Brexit and they will be dead set against it.

What about Labour? Will they support an extension of this long when there is nothing in it for them but to highlight just how dysfunctional their own Brexit plans are? I do suspect that they will support it eventually, even if they have to be dragged there kicking and screaming.

Then what about other EU countries? Will they really want another 21 months of Brexit where UK politicians fly over to their country and tries to woo them and get them onside? The past week has shown how incompetent the Foreign Secretary is and would they really want another 21 months of being insulted?

Finally, I just don't think there is any way the UK can take another 21 months of this. They have barely looked at anything other than Brexit these past 2 years and have done very little on looking at local issues that affect people. Spreading it out by another 21 months could possibly lead to a revolt by the electorate if they keep delaying running the country effectively.