Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Anyone for another 21 months of Brexit?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/eu-is-said-to-mull-idea-of-proposing-brexit-extension-to-2021

At the current rate we could probably break 100 iterations of this thread in that time. :eek:

Interesting if true, if the UK blinks and opt for extension on those terms then it may settle into a pattern of last minute panic and extension for years on end with the UK never actually leaving the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

charlie14 wrote: »

All 27 would need to agree to an extension.

Also the regional parliaments and upper chambers. So it's more like 37 + UK.

Oh and Spain is having an election in April.

CrabRevolution

I'm not sure what good an extension would do. We'd just end up back at the same point we are at now.

There's simply too many people and politicians in the UK who believe the "The EU always blinks at the last minute" "they need us more than we need them" "no deal would be no harm" line of thinking. They mightn't be a majority but they are big enough to obstruct any constructive, realistic deal the UK might reach with the EU, so we'd teeter to the next deadline with no deal on the horizon.

Even if there was a general election in the UK, both Labour and the Tories would campaign on a "we'll negotiate a better deal" platform without giving any specifics on how. They'll be happy to kick the can down the road till they get into power.

lawred2

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm not sure what good an extension would do. We'd just end up back at the same point we are at now.

There's simply too many people and politicians in the UK who believe the "The EU always blinks at the last minute" "they need us more than we need them" "no deal would be no harm" line of thinking. They mightn't be a majority but they are big enough to obstruct any constructive, realistic deal the UK might reach with the EU, so we'd teeter to the next deadline with no deal on the horizon.

Even if there was a general election in the UK, both Labour and the Tories would campaign on a "we'll negotiate a better deal" platform without giving any specifics on how. They'll be happy to kick the can down the road till they get into power.

Brexiteers will see this as a dastardly plot by the EU to keep Britain entangled anyway and will double down their efforts to leave in March with no deal

briany

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is bilateral. The problem is that the EU can't force an extension; TM has to ask for one.

But the EU won't agree to an extension unless May can give them a reason better than prolonging the inevitable?

Capt'n Midnight

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Can we pay any EU government to refuse it.....get the mess over and done with.

It would be much cheaper to pay the DUP.

Or just Mr Dodds , he'll get them round, or get Mr Cox to change his opinion on the backstop so everyone can save face.

Or admit that the Bank Of England actually knows something about money and the UK can't afford Brexit at the moment. ( ie. use Labours five economic tests in reverse* or similar to decide when/if Brexit could happen )



IMHO The DUP seem like good honest politicians.**
In the sense that an honest politician is one that when bought stays bought :pac:


That Tory crowd would likely pocket the money and then bite your hand and ask for more :P


Seriously Brexit is a perfect storm that could be dissipated if a few individuals stepped back from the abyss.



* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_economic_tests
Are business cycles and economic structures compatible so that we and others could live comfortably with BREXIT on a permanent basis?
If problems emerge is there sufficient flexibility to deal with them?
Would BREXIT create better conditions for firms making long-term decisions to invest in Britain?
What impact would BREXIT have on the competitive position of the UK's financial services industry, particularly the City's wholesale markets?
In summary, will BREXIT promote higher growth, stability and a lasting increase in jobs?


** Seriously, have the British public looked into the DUP :eek:

Water John

The EU must be really flumoxxing the strategists of various hues in the UK. If TM looks for an Ext of Art 50, it will be a long one not a short one. The ERG and DUP must be panicking, either support TM's Deal or this.

Leroy42

IDS came out today on Sky news and basically threatened Ireland. Said we were be in serious trouble if no deal happened before going on to state that a backstop was even enforceable so pointless anyway.

FrancieBrady

Gove telling Andrew Marr that all 3 options (Bin Backstop, Timelimit or Unilateral Exit Clause) are still reasonably possible.
If there is to be an extension part of the terms should be that UK politicians are honest with their citizens.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

IDS came out today on Sky news and basically threatened Ireland. Said we were be in serious trouble if no deal happened before going on to state that a backstop was even enforceable so pointless anyway.

Yeah, serious trouble, we'd lose a year of growth if the EU didn't help us. That's a less than the UK has already lost.


The US is backing the backstop. And Turkey has to play mostly by EU rules.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21
UK exports in 2016 were £590.5 billion
EU 318
US 66
Turkey 9
Total 66.6% of exports, there's no way the other 1/3 will make up any difference.

Strazdas

The idea of a 21 month extension sounds far fetched. A departing EU state that hangs around for two years (and nearly three years after the referendum) would be in nobody's interest and probably very counter productive.....this would be even before it enters into a transition period.

2ygb4cmqetsjhx

Entertaining as Brexit is, at this point I just want it over. Another 21 months resolves nothing.

Akrasia

Silent Running wrote: »

A second referendum is quickly fading as an option to solve the impasse. There now seems to be a theme running through some of the population that Brexit has turned into a battle for Britain.

There seems to be a need to win at any cost, and anyone not keeping the line would be seen as a traitor. This will probably lead to 'VICTORY' headlines in the papers after exit day.

Bottom line is that a second vote could result in an even greater lead for leave.

Source of this feeling is anecdotal. I had some heated conversations with normally rational people in the UK during a recent visit.

The 2nd referendum doesn't have to happen before A50 is revoked.

IMO, if the HOC votes to revoke A50, the only way they can sell this to the public is if they commit to holding another referendum within 12 months or so on the future of the UK's relationship to the EU.

They should use the time to do a proper citizens assembly style investigation into what the public preference actually is in relation to what the question on the referendum should be.


If A50 is revoked, then the UK will need to field candidates in the EU Parliament elections, and they'd better take it seriously, because if the UK stay in the EU but send another crop of ERG and UKIP MEPs back to Brussels for another 5 years, then the rest of the EU will be extremely p1ssed off.

The EU elections would be a strong indicator for how the UK would vote in a 2nd referendum.

Indestructable

Hi,

Can anyone recommend some decent Brexit podcasts? I am up to date the Brexit Republic (very good) and listened to a good few Remainiac ones (hit and miss) What are you guys listening to?

I know this was asked in one of the previous iterations of this thread but can't find the replies! We could really do with the Brexit forum imo.

Thanks.

ballsymchugh

Indestructable wrote: »

Hi,

Can anyone recommend some decent Brexit podcasts? I am up to date the Brexit Republic (very good) and listened to a good few Remainiac ones (hit and miss) What are you guys listening to?

I know this was asked in one of the previous iterations of this thread but can't find the replies! We could really do with the Brexit forum imo.

Thanks.

cakewatch is pretty good. from the EU side.

lawred2

Indestructable wrote: »

Hi,

Can anyone recommend some decent Brexit podcasts? I am up to date the Brexit Republic (very good) and listened to a good few Remainiac ones (hit and miss) What are you guys listening to?

I know this was asked in one of the previous iterations of this thread but can't find the replies! We could really do with the Brexit forum imo.

Thanks.

I find Brexit Republic a bit dry to be honest and the delivery is entirely without humour.

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2019/01/what-theyre-not-telling-you-about-no.html?m=1

Good article here, in short there won't be armageddon on Brexit day and leavers will be jubilant, but over time faster and faster UK economy would go into a slide.

Was posted a while back about how it would be a slow death by a thousand painless cuts.

It wouldn't be immediate factory closures, it would be not building new ones, not winning contracts, closing down at the end of a production run. Ye olde natural wastage , like not replacing employees who leave but on a country wide scale with entire industries slowly affected.

Car industry won't be viable long term. 4% margins, and there's a 4.5% tariff on imported parts and 10% on exported cars. And nearly £5Bn shortfall in investment. And no MEP's or vetos in the EU. No French or German politician is going to risk their countries jobs to help the UK car workers.

Maggie had Scottish oil to keep the coffers filled as the UK moved from manufacturing to services. Manufacturing will probably contract due to competition from factories closer to , or in, foreign markets. And services can't take up the slack if they are excluded from the EU or competing with India. And Scottish oil might leave the UK with #indyref2.

Akrasia

boggerman1 wrote: »

Polls might show this but when u see on tv and listen to English radio ,leave the EU and to hell with the conquences.I wouldn't be confident at all of a 2nd ref producing the right result.

I don't think the UK would vote to leave twice.

The brexiteers know that this is their only chance, they all vehemently oppose holding a 2nd referendum because they know that they only won the first referendum by staying vague and purposely not communicating what life outside the EU would actually be like.

The British public have had 3 years of insight into how damaging brexit actually is, and how clueless and incompetent the politicians who lead down this path actually are.

There are the hardcore brexiteers who will never change their mind, but they are a fixed number. There are an awful lot of people who didn't vote in the last referendum because they didn't take it seriously and there are an awful lot of people who voted leave to 'give the government a bloody nose' who realise that they were only shooting themselves in the foot, and there are a lot of voters who voted to leave because they believed the lies about funding for the NHS and that free trade agreements will be the easiest deals ever negotiated.

The Brexiteers are split between those who want the hardest possible brexit, and those who want Norway/Canada/Switzerland etc style arrangements while remainers are united under one single goal (to stop brexit and to preserve whatever relationship they have left with the EU27)

A 2nd referendum absolutely shouldn't be phrased the same as the first referendum. Any kind of nuance in the kind of brexit being offered in a 2nd referendum would split the Brexit vote in half.

Capt'n Midnight

Averi Delicious Mechanic wrote: »

Entertaining as Brexit is, at this point I just want it over. Another 21 months resolves nothing.

But at the end of the 21 months the UK could look back and see the very real and permanent changes in their economy and how far they've dropped behind the rest of the EU/OECD (or at least behind OECD countries that aren't actually collapsing)

nah, you're right, we'd be right back here in 21 months and nothing would have changed. Generic slogans would still beat facts. Brexit would still mean a Red White and Blue Brexit was the "will of the people"

An Claidheamh

Leroy42 wrote: »

IDS came out today on Sky news and basically threatened Ireland. Said we were be in serious trouble if no deal happened before going on to state that a backstop was even enforceable so pointless anyway.

Last 2 years, we've had these empty threats.

I almost feel sorry for him. He looks haunted most of the time and just mopes to whatever media will have him.

He's also, of course, a political failure.

I wonder do any intelligent British think that anyone in the seat of power would actually tell him anything or trust his predictions?

He's really just a clown.

cml387

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Last 2 years, we've had these empty threats.

I almost feel sorry for him. He looks haunted most of the time and just mopes to whatever media will have him.

He's also, of course, a political failure.

I was always wonder do any intelligent British think that anyone in the seat of power would actually tell him anything or trust his predictions?

He's really just a clown.

I heard Ian Duncan Smith on Today (R4) some time ago.

In answer to the question of the need for immigrant workers in the caring professions, he said that there are many innovations in the field of robotics that could replace nursing staff in that situation.

That he wasn't laughed out of the studio (I swear I heard it at 7:20am on a weekday morning) tells you all you ned to know about the surreal world in which the brexiteers live.

An Ciarraioch

Looks like there could be a rush on bread this time next month, in order to beat tariffs:

https://www.thejournal.ie/bread-beast-from-the-east-brexit-4501752-Feb2019/

reslfj

lawred2 wrote: »

EU hoping that by the end of that the UK will have forgotten that they were Brexiting in the first place?

"If the UK revokes A50, do we really want to have a UK back into the EU, that only wants to "prevent things happening", "block things happening" or "see this off" ?

Sir Ivan Rogers in HOL's EU select committee 20 February 2019.

The EU will like a fully cooperating UK in the EU or get an orderly Brexit over with ASAP.

Lars

Not sure its OK to post direct links to Twitter with video here. But you can search my Twitter handle @LarsFJ1 for today and find a short clip.

igCorcaigh

Indestructable wrote: »

Hi,

Can anyone recommend some decent Brexit podcasts? I am up to date the Brexit Republic (very good) and listened to a good few Remainiac ones (hit and miss) What are you guys listening to?

I know this was asked in one of the previous iterations of this thread but can't find the replies! We could really do with the Brexit forum imo.

Thanks.

The guardian "brexit means" podcast.

road_high

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Last 2 years, we've had these empty threats.

I almost feel sorry for him. He looks haunted most of the time and just mopes to whatever media will have him.

He's also, of course, a political failure.

I wonder do any intelligent British think that anyone in the seat of power would actually tell him anything or trust his predictions?

He's really just a clown.

Indeed. No one in Europe or in Ireland is listening anymore. I think we’ve long since moved on in our heads and are generally preparing for the worst and if it happens so be it. It’s damage limitation time on our side, the uk can do what ever they like.
The uk has become like the psychotic, obsessive ex wife that you can’t wait to get away from but must go through the motions to get away from. Generally the less said the better, let them rant and insult away but don’t engage on that level. Pretty much what is happening

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Leroy42 wrote: »

IDS came out today on Sky news and basically threatened Ireland. Said we were be in serious trouble if no deal happened before going on to state that a backstop was even enforceable so pointless anyway.

Ireland is in big big trouble if there is a no deal Brexit. But there is literally no alternative so there is nothing we can do about it unfortunately.

prawnsambo

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Ireland is in big big trouble if there is a no deal Brexit. But there is literally no alternative so there is nothing we can do about it unfortunately.

It cuts our growth forecast in half. That's bad, but it's still growth.

NIMAN

prawnsambo wrote: »

It cuts our growth forecast in half. That's bad, but it's still growth.

How many forecasts in the last decade have been wrong?

FrancieBrady

NIMAN wrote: »

How many forecasts in the last decade have been wrong?

I'd agree with the Kingspan boss today - nobody knows how bad it will be. Law of unintended consequences about to kick in for everybody involved here. Green jersey time too.

Water John

TM should really have gone for 15th March, Et Tu Brute.