Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Great Britain is a damaged brand. A bit more Johnny English and a little less James Bond these days.

You're being glib but there is a serious and sinister element to this. Post-EU buccaneering Britain will now be unable to criticise foreign powers like Saudi Arabia and Chinia as it will be desperate for a trade deal and foreign investment now that it is well on the way to dissuading the Japanese.

Then there's Britain's soft power. While every country has it's share of bile-spewing Xenophobes, they're usually limited to minor coalition roles at most. Brexit looks too much like 17.4 million people buying into this for the UK to remain an attractive place for global talent and capital. Traditionally, the EU would back the UK in things like the UN's security council as it is a member but that will soon change. The UK's biggest ally, the US has turned inward so I can't see how Global Britain can do well unless of course it bends over backwards for Mohammed bin Salman and Xi Jinping.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Damaged by their own population incredibly. Normally you'd expect a renegade government to be the culprits but you have half the population happy to send out the message that they are xenophobes, isolationists and the country is closed for business.

I keep coming back to it but brexit is weird religious dogma- national pride, notions of superiority coupled with a disdain for all things foreign. Not even the US are as bad when they start flag waving.

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

I keep coming back to it but brexit is weird religious dogma- national pride, notions of superiority coupled with a disdain for all things foreign. Not even the US are as bad when they start flag waving.

If you see it purely as an ideology and a belief system, then it make sense. The 17m voted for a fantasy that could never actually happen in real life. It's mainly a destructive ideology though and dependent on having a scapegoat to hate on.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

You can go back over my posts over several months - this is exactly what I have been saying. Regarding Farage, if Brexit comes to pass and in two years from now the trade deal is all done and dusted, where is his career from that point on?



Things will be a darn sight easier, for the issue of the Backstop at least, after the DUP are removed from the equation. Hope for a British General Election within 2 years, the DUP are probably gone, May (if it is her in # 10) will have a hard border in the Irish sea quicker than you can say back stop - no doubt about it. Problem is, it still might not pass in HoC - they'll find something else to be enraged about!

The DUP's stranglehold is loosening by the day. As defections continue, and cross party voting becomes the norm, their confidence and supply arrangement will become irrelevant.

briany

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You're being glib but there is a serious and sinister element to this. Post-EU buccaneering Britain will now be unable to criticise foreign powers like Saudi Arabia and Chinia as it will be desperate for a trade deal and foreign investment now that it is well on the way to dissuading the Japanese.

Then there's Britain's soft power. While every country has it's share of bile-spewing Xenophobes, they're usually limited to minor coalition roles at most. Brexit looks too much like 17.4 million people buying into this for the UK to remain an attractive place for global talent and capital. Traditionally, the EU would back the UK in things like the UN's security council as it is a member but that will soon change. The UK's biggest ally, the US has turned inward so I can't see how Global Britain can do well unless of course it bends over backwards for Mohammed bin Salman and Xi Jinping.

I don't think xenophobia will be what hurts the UK so much in trade and investment. Saudi and China are known for their intolerant societies and human rights abuses but they can get on in trade because they have stuff other countries want. That may not be something that can be said of the UK so much, come March 29th.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

I don't think xenophobia will be what hurts the UK so much in trade and investment. Saudi and China are known for their intolerant societies and human rights abuses but they can get on in trade because they have stuff other countries want. That may not be something that can be said of the UK so much, come March 29th.

Not xenophobia per se but the perception of such with the perceived validation of the Leave vote might be enough.

My point is that the UK will effectively be silenced when it comes to human rights abuses due to the sheer need for foreign trade and investment.

Cryptopagan

There’s no way May is getting a 2 year delay. The next British ge is slated for 2022, so you could’t count on a new government coming to power in that time. The EU is iffy about an extension that goes even as far ar the Euro elections this summer. And the rumour doesn’t make sense, anyhow, as the idea appears to be to allow time to discuss the future relationship in order to take the sting out of the backstop, but Europe won’t move on to detailed future relationship talks until the WA is signed off.

If you give May two years, it will just be two more years spent discussing exactly the same issue of the backstop. It’s a recipe for paralysis.

Junkyard Tom

Strazdas wrote: »

you have half the population happy to send out the message that they are xenophobes, isolationists and the country is closed for business.

Sure, a percentage of the half who voted leave are xenomorphs, and whatnot, but there were plenty of people who voted to leave for more benign and even positive reasons. If people voted because of the 'lies on the Bus', that go round and round, then that's, at least, a noble intention.

I mean, how many among us knew the extent to which Britain and Ireland are woven into the tapestry of the EU? I know I wasn't all that informed before reading these threads. It's easy for us to point-and-laugh at the British but the British public have been fed anti-EU sentiment for decades. It's remarkable how the manipulative the media can be when it comes to the public consciousness.

Brexit is a mess, definitely, but we had a civil war here about a century ago and a nasty conflict broke out in the north 50 years ago. We should learn lessons from Brexit about how a nation can be divided and try to avoid anything like that happening here... again.

Akrasia

Cryptopagan wrote: »

There’s no way May is getting a 2 year delay. The next British ge is slated for 2022, so you could’t count on a new government coming to power in that time. The EU is iffy about an extension that goes even as far ar the Euro elections this summer. And the rumour doesn’t make sense, anyhow, as the idea appears to be to allow time to discuss the future relationship in order to take the sting out of the backstop, but Europe won’t move on to detailed future relationship talks until the WA is signed off.

If you give May two years, it will just be two more years spent discussing exactly the same issue of the backstop. It’s a recipe for paralysis.

Yep. The May strategy is to wait until the last minute when the posturing and bickering will hopefully give way to some kind of consensus on avoiding the worst of worst case scenarios.

Moving the last minute 21 months further away just means 21 months more posturing, obfuscating, internal bickering before another crunch

There is no consensus in the UK for what Brexit means. May insists it means brexit, but as I tell my 7 year old daughter, you can't define a word by using it in it's own definition.

There is no reason to believe that a consensus will emerge on what GB want from Brexit between now and next year, and no matter what deal gets negotiated or renegotiated, half the brexiteers will say it's not a real brexit, the other half will say it's too brexity, and all the remainers will say it's inherently economically inferior to the UK staying in the EU (this is true for any possible brexit)

Seth Brundle

If May manages to secure a deal that delays Brexit, what will happen the maliginant element within the UK that are shouting for Brexit?
She has had two years to change their mindset but not done anything. They are as vocal as ever and won't be staying quiet. I would expect the UK to become a lot more divided if they don't get their way.

Strazdas

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Sure, a percentage of the half who voted leave are xenomorphs, and whatnot, but there were plenty of people who voted to leave for more benign and even positive reasons. If people voted because of the 'lies on the Bus', that go round and round, then that's, at least, a noble intention.

I mean, how many among us knew the extent to which Britain and Ireland are woven into the tapestry of the EU? I know I wasn't all that informed before reading these threads. It's easy for us to point-and-laugh at the British but the British public have been fed anti-EU sentiment for decades. It's remarkable how the manipulative the media can be when it comes to the public consciousness.

Brexit is a mess, definitely, but we had a civil war here about a century ago and a nasty conflict broke out in the north 50 years ago. We should learn lessons from Brexit about how a nation can be divided and try to avoid anything like that happening here... again.

I would totally accept your point but one thing that seems to have escaped the more moderate Leave voters is just how damaging Brexit would be for Brand UK. They genuinely thought Britain could go it alone on the high seas and that they would even be admired and respected for the decision - not the reality of the rest of the world being gobsmacked to see a developed country retreating into right wing nationalism and isolationism.

I saw Richard North (a strong advocate for Leave for many years now) saying on his blog recently he is shocked at how badly Brexit is going and just how divisive an issue it has been. Never in his wildest dreams did he envisage it going so disastrously.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

I saw Richard North (a strong advocate for Leave for many years now) saying on his blog recently he is shocked at how badly Brexit is going and just how divisive an issue it has been. Never in his wildest dreams did he envisage it going so disastrously.

If he was dreaming of it going swimmingly, they were his wildest dreams. What did he expect was going to happen when there was no actual plan on how to leave or anything other than an end goal that skipped over all the important bits?

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The DUP's stranglehold is loosening by the day. As defections continue, and cross party voting becomes the norm, their confidence and supply arrangement will become irrelevant.

Cross party voting has only become the norm in HoC votes on Brexit - it is not and won't be the norm on other legislation or on the next No Confidence motion against the Government. I strongly suspect that even the (so far) three Tory defectors would vote with the government if/when one arises. Unlike the DUP who, if they are getting shafted, they'll take the government down on whatever opportunity arises.

Duane Dibbley

I think she should call a GE if she is going for a delay, There is not reason to believe that the Tories could deliver brexit if they couldn't for the last 2 years

briany

Laois_Man wrote: »

Cross party voting has only become the norm in HoC votes on Brexit - it is not and won't be the norm on other legislation or on the next No Confidence motion against the Government. I strongly suspect that even the (so far) three Tory defectors would vote with the government if/when one arises. Unlike the DUP who, if they are getting shafted, they'll take the government down on whatever opportunity arises.

Was there no other way for May to achieve a majority in parliament without the DUP deal? It's proven to be such a horrible multi-layered headache that having tried to fashion a deal with Plaid Cymru and a few independents certainly couldn't have been worse. At least Wales also voted to leave, unlike NI or Scotland.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

If he was dreaming of it going swimmingly, they were his wildest dreams. What did he expect was going to happen when there was no actual plan on how to leave or anything other than an end goal that skipped over all the important bits?

Yes, I would be very critical of him in fact. North's main reason for wanting to leave was the "sovereignty" argument, not so much the trade deals nonsense, but anyone could have told him that trying to withdraw from an economic / political union after nearly 50 years of membership would be fraught with risks and would have the potential to go spectacularly wrong (not to mention the reputational damage it would do to Britain).

briany

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think she should call a GE if she is going for a delay, There is not reason to believe that the Tories could deliver brexit if they couldn't for the last 2 years

I'd be looking to offload the poison chalice at the first opportunity. Obviously politicians think quite differently, but it just seems to me that if there was one time you didn't want to be the party in government, this Brexit fiasco would be it.

VinLieger

briany wrote: »

I'd be looking to offload the poison chalice at the first opportunity. Obviously politicians think quite differently, but it just seems to me that if there was one time you didn't want to be the party in government, this Brexit fiasco would be it.

Honestly i believe she still thinks shes going to come out of this looking like the 2nd coming of thatcher or churchill

Leroy42

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I think she should call a GE if she is going for a delay, There is not reason to believe that the Tories could deliver brexit if they couldn't for the last 2 years

There is zero chance of her calling an election. The only thing that may change is that she might be forced out, to be replaced by another Tory.

This whole mess is pretty much down to internal Tory politics, it has very little to do with the good of the country. Tusks advice today of an extension is perfectly reasonable, but TM will attempt to play it down for no other reason than to keep the ERG and the like in her party on board a little longer.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Not xenophobia per se but the perception of such with the perceived validation of the Leave vote might be enough.

My point is that the UK will effectively be silenced when it comes to human rights abuses due to the sheer need for foreign trade and investment.

While I understand your point - and agree to an extent - there has actually been an alarming increase in human rights abuses in the UK itself. Much of this precipitated by May herself and her Hostile Environment. Javid seems to be quite happy to continue the trend.

These absolute scandals are being brushed under the carpet, as so much else has, cos Brexit.

The UK is losing/ has lost much of the moral superiority they like to wield against less developed countries.

jm08

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I mean, how many among us knew the extent to which Britain and Ireland are woven into the tapestry of the EU? I know I wasn't all that informed before reading these threads. It's easy for us to point-and-laugh at the British but the British public have been fed anti-EU sentiment for decades. It's remarkable how the manipulative the media can be when it comes to the public consciousness.

PR and having a Constitution saves us a lot of these divisions. I personally learned a lot about the EU from the Lisbon Treaty discussions and the bank bailout.

Brexit is a mess, definitely, but we had a civil war here about a century ago and a nasty conflict broke out in the north 50 years ago. We should learn lessons from Brexit about how a nation can be divided and try to avoid anything like that happening here... again.

In fairness, I think we have learned a lot from those conflicts - certainly enough not to ever want to get back to similar situations. Notice how much support the Government have (although Leo wouldn't be top of everyone's popularity list) for the position it has taken with regard to the Border despite the other trading issues that will happen because of Brexit.

storker

SNIP. No meme-dumps please.

Thargor

She's ruled out any extension again today after the meeting in Egypt...

Dyr

Thargor wrote: »

She's ruled out any extension again today after the meeting in Egypt...

She said "Delay is delay"


"Brexit is Brexit"


Presumably



"Lamp is lamp"


You have to wonder

farmchoice

Thargor wrote: »

She's ruled out any extension again today after the meeting in Egypt...

the reality is parliament are going to force her hand, she knows it and id say is happy enough about it, so she can keep saying no extension until she can say parliament has instructed me to seek an extension.

Spanish Eyes

Thargor wrote: »

She's ruled out any extension again today after the meeting in Egypt...

That means there will be one.

Professor Moriarty

The government's assessment of the impact of a No Deal Brexit will probably be published tomorrow (which will save Soubry the trouble of suing). Just in time for Cooper and Letwin's amendment on Wednesday.

liamtech

Just announced on Sky News

If PM cant get deal through parliament by 13th March - Backbenchers will insist on voting for extension, and taking no deal off table

Vote will be taken and expected cross party support

Just Live on Sky News ATM

cant find it online but just announced by kAy Burley

Edit - im fixing a laptop while watching it but thats what i caught - stand corrected if i missed something but that was the general gist

An Ciarraioch

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You're being glib but there is a serious and sinister element to this. Post-EU buccaneering Britain will now be unable to criticise foreign powers like Saudi Arabia and Chinia as it will be desperate for a trade deal and foreign investment now that it is well on the way to dissuading the Japanese.

Then there's Britain's soft power. While every country has it's share of bile-spewing Xenophobes, they're usually limited to minor coalition roles at most. Brexit looks too much like 17.4 million people buying into this for the UK to remain an attractive place for global talent and capital. Traditionally, the EU would back the UK in things like the UN's security council as it is a member but that will soon change. The UK's biggest ally, the US has turned inward so I can't see how Global Britain can do well unless of course it bends over backwards for Mohammed bin Salman and Xi Jinping.

A further blow to Britain's international standing has come in the Hague, where the long-standing case concerning Diego Garcia has ended, with the UK ordered to relinquish the Chagos Islands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/un-court-rejects-uk-claim-to-sovereignty-over-chagos-islands?CMP=share_btn_tw

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A further blow to Britain's international standing has come in the Hague, where the long-standing case concerning Diego Garcia has ended, with the UK ordered to relinquish the Chagos Islands:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/un-court-rejects-uk-claim-to-sovereignty-over-chagos-islands?CMP=share_btn_tw

It's worth noting the ruling is non binding, ergo nothing will happen.