Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Hurrache wrote: »

Realistically how can Labour force the second vote? I'd be very surprised if it happens.

Not sure about the mechanics but isn't there some way they could engineer a vote on one? Especially if all other options had already been voted down by the Parliament, including May's deal and No Deal.

boggerman1

So corbyn has finally reached 2019 and backs a 2nd vote.i for one wouldn't be putting a lot of money on staying in the EU winning.

conor678

I am living in the north of the UK and this is a strange call in my opinion. The hard-core Labour areas around me all voted to leave. The core labour voters in my opi6want a brexit. There is a real disillusion in my opinion between the working class labour voters in old mining towns and areas outside of the big cities and those in the big cities.

I feel this is corbyn trying to save face and prevent further splits from his party. The risk here is it could push the hard-core Labour voters into UKIP or away from Labour.

My opinion anyway from living it

prawnsambo

conor678 wrote: »

I am living in the north of the UK and this is a strange call in my opinion. The hard-core Labour areas around me all voted to leave. The core labour voters in my opi6want a brexit. There is a real disillusion in my opinion between the working class labour voters in old mining towns and areas outside of the big cities and those in the big cities.

I feel this is corbyn trying to save face and prevent further splits from his party. The risk here is it could push the hard-core Labour voters into UKIP or away from Labour.

My opinion anyway from living it

I'd agree with this. The two main parties are effectively eschewing government n favour of internal party politics.

Strazdas

conor678 wrote: »

I am living in the north of the UK and this is a strange call in my opinion. The hard-core Labour areas around me all voted to leave. The core labour voters in my opi6want a brexit. There is a real disillusion in my opinion between the working class labour voters in old mining towns and areas outside of the big cities and those in the big cities.

I feel this is corbyn trying to save face and prevent further splits from his party. The risk here is it could push the hard-core Labour voters into UKIP or away from Labour.

My opinion anyway from living it

Without a shadow of a doubt but the fear must be that Brexit could end up destroying Labour if they don't do something extremely urgent. Nine MPs leaving the party in a week is disastrous stuff and far more alarming for them than Brexity Labour voters in the north of England getting the hump.

conor678

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd agree with this. The two main parties are effectively eschewing government n favour of internal party politics.

They are and with the power of momentum in the labour party and the uptake of young new members there is a real apparent divide in the labour party. The young radicals against the old then throw in the blairites if you will and you've got real divide

listermint

conor678 wrote: »

I am living in the north of the UK and this is a strange call in my opinion. The hard-core Labour areas around me all voted to leave. The core labour voters in my opi6want a brexit. There is a real disillusion in my opinion between the working class labour voters in old mining towns and areas outside of the big cities and those in the big cities.

I feel this is corbyn trying to save face and prevent further splits from his party. The risk here is it could push the hard-core Labour voters into UKIP or away from Labour.

My opinion anyway from living it

But that doesn't explain 80 per cent of members wanting a second referendum as per the labour party conference.


Like at all.

Frank Bullitt

White a second referendum would please some of the UK, I fail to see the significance in the opposition calling for it.

4068ac1elhodqr

Its a funny dilema, a brexit will see both an Indie Scot and then a UI materalise. Then they'll re-join circa 2027.

Whereas a remain/re-join will see faster expansion, harmonisation and centralisation of the EU superstate.

conor678

listermint wrote: »

But that doesn't explain 80 per cent of members wanting a second referendum as per the labour party conference.


Like at all.

I wasn't aware of that. My only thoughts into that is that the uptake of new Labour party members are the ones who maybe attend the conference in force and they would be the younger remain types.

Only a guess but as I say you ask a labour voters from Rotherham, Sheffield, Doncaster, Sunderland etc and my bet would be they would all answer out. London central and Manchester central it would be remain.

conor678

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Its a funny dilema, a brexit will see both an Indie Scot and then a UI materalise. Then they'll re-join circa 2027.

Whereas a remain/re-join will see faster expansion, harmonisation and centralisation of the EU superstate.

The first part I definitely agree with. The second paragraph not so much

An Ciarraioch

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Its a funny dilema, a brexit will see both an Indie Scot and then a UI materalise. Then they'll re-join circa 2027.

Whereas a remain/re-join will see faster expansion, harmonisation and centralisation of the EU superstate.

And interesting developments in Wales, also - Plaid Cymru up significantly in polls there since the election of its new leader, with Welsh Labour correspondingly down. Still a significant UKIP vote there also, which the Brexit outcome could influence in the coming weeks:

http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2019/02/25/the-february-welsh-political-barometer-poll-voting-intentions/

irishproduce

I see riots if they ignore the will of the majority who voted in good faith. Democracy is a funny thing and they'll set a very bad precedent here if they refuse to accept the democratic vote.
Forever more you'll have those on the losing sides of any votes defecting and causing disruption.

Akrasia

S.M.B. wrote: »

I would have been a lot more confident of the outcome of a vote being flipped 12 months ago but I'm not so sure now.

I think one fact that this whole mess has highlighted is how difficult it is to decouple from something like the EU, even if it's not in ones best interest.

I think some of the anti establishment votes from the previous votes will have turned into apathetic "just leave already" votes.

Nope, it would be easier to decouple from the EU if it wasn't in their interest to remain. The problem for brexiteers is that every possible brexit is worse than being in the EU.

The EU isn't the bogeyman it was made out to be. Its a mutually beneficial association

4068ac1elhodqr

conor678 wrote: »

The first part I definitely agree with. The second paragraph not so much

Isn't there about x6 new countries in the Western Balkans about to join the 27?

Then (later) Turkey, and (much, much later) the Ukraine.

They need the sterling notes to pay for this, e.g. the W'Balkans half about 1/2 the average German GDP-PerPerson.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

The chance of a 2nd referendum is great news to all UK remainers-yes Corbyn might not really be enthusiastic about it but the recent defectors has probably focussed his view and he does`nt want anymore.
I`m confused by a number of posters who seem disappointed in this news though-why is that?

Because in Ireland (or at least Boards.ie's virtual version of it :pac:) there's a whole lot of people that want Brexit to happen for a whole lot of different reasons (most of them not particularly good or well-intentioned).

From a pragmatic point of view, Corbyn's change of mind isn't really good news, because it looks like he's been bullied into it [hint of irony] by the unelected members of the Labour party. And it not really news of any flavour because it doesn't set out a clear Brexit path for UK voters to vote on, or EU traders to plan for.

I've got other things on my mind at the moment so haven't devoted much brain-space to interpreting these latest Brexit rumours and pronouncements, but the conspiracy theorist in me thinks that (a) the DUP are being set up for a right royal shafting; and (b) those nice people in Europe are trying to hand TM a way out of the mess she's created, if only the stupid woman would stop being so bloody difficult; but (c) if she's not going to be rational, then the EU is going to provoke the British media with tweets and soundbites that'll either enrage the lukewarm Brexiteers so that the UK storms off in a no-deal huff, or spur the lukewarm Remainers into action so that they decide for something, something specific. Either way, the EU will have a defined set of circumstances with which to work in the run-up to the EP elections.

4068ac1elhodqr

irishproduce wrote: »

I see riots if they ignore the will of the majority who voted in good faith. Democracy is a funny thing and they'll set a very bad precedent here if they refuse to accept the democratic vote.
Forever more you'll have those on the losing sides of any votes defecting and causing disruption.

For sure, the 'purple vests' will be out.

Even though they'll be a much more timid than their French neighbours, who enjoy a strike and parade about at every opportunity.

Leroy42

I think that fundamentally the split in UK politics has changed and the current parties, or even the political system itself, is unable to deal with it.

It seems which side of the Brexit debate you happen to be on is far more important, certainly at the moment, than the traditional party politics.

So in effect both parties are swimming against the tide of public opinion and trying to maintain their traditional ideology rather than seeing that the tribes have changed.

Both TM and JC can't ever do right by all of the party because the party has split, it just hasn't become outwardly obvious yet as each party battles to maintain its grip.

Akrasia

irishproduce wrote: »

I see riots if they ignore the will of the majority who voted in good faith. Democracy is a funny thing and they'll set a very bad precedent here if they refuse to accept the democratic vote.
Forever more you'll have those on the losing sides of any votes defecting and causing disruption.

There probably will some be riots tbh, but the EDL types who are threatning violence shouldn't be a reason to not have a democratic vote on tge Future of the UK.

A million people marching peacefully for a 2nd referendum should have more sway than a few hundred hooligans

First Up

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote:

Isn't there about x6 new countries in the Western Balkans about to join the 27?

No.

4068ac1elhodqr

First Up wrote: »

No.

Well, not overnight but circa 2025.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/29660/Factsheet:%20EU%20Engagement%20in%20the%20Western%20Balkans

Accession negotiations are well underway for the six countries.
Once they meet the strict critera, full membership will be sought and likely accepted.

Junkyard Tom

The thought of a gang of UKIPpers and anti-EU Tories marching back into the EU parliament with the sole purpose of sowing division and discord bothers me.

Hopefully May's deal gets through.

RobMc59

Akrasia wrote: »

There probably will some be riots tbh, but the EDL types who are threatning violence shouldn't be a reason to not have a democratic vote on tge Future of the UK.

A million people marching peacefully for a 2nd referendum should have more sway than a few hundred hooligans

There is also the fact that interest in the brexit vote was very luke warm in 2016,around 74% voted-it would depend which way the 26% who did`nt vote would go but the penny starting to drop that it`s not what was promised would hopefully bring reality to many.

An Ciarraioch

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Well, not overnight but circa 2025.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/29660/Factsheet:%20EU%20Engagement%20in%20the%20Western%20Balkans

Accession negotiations are well underway for the six countries.
Once they meet the strict critera, full membership will be sought and likely accepted.

I can imagine Montenegro and Serbia joining reasonably quickly, and perhaps Northern Macedonia now that the Greece kerfuffle has been resolved, but Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo would have considerable work to do to complete negotiations.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The thought of a gang of UKIPpers and anti-EU Tories marching back into the EU parliament with the sole purpose of sowing division and discord bothers me.

Hopefully May's deal gets through.

Just more Farage's to get ridiculed and laughed at because they can't lie there.

Would be a bit of a shambles alright.

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would be a bit of a shambles alright.

If Brexit gets 'thwarted' they will dine out on it for years. The EU and remainers will be blamed forever more for all of Blighty's woes.

It would be poetic justice if the Brexit arch-incompetents had control of the bridge of HMS Britannia as it sunk.

First Up

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote:

Well, not overnight but circa 2025.

Don't hold your breath on that.

CrabRevolution

conor678 wrote: »

I am living in the north of the UK and this is a strange call in my opinion. The hard-core Labour areas around me all voted to leave. The core labour voters in my opi6want a brexit. There is a real disillusion in my opinion between the working class labour voters in old mining towns and areas outside of the big cities and those in the big cities.

I feel this is corbyn trying to save face and prevent further splits from his party. The risk here is it could push the hard-core Labour voters into UKIP or away from Labour.

My opinion anyway from living it

This bit has confused me since the vote. How can the EU be blamed for the deindustrialisation which has been common in the entire western world for decades? All the way back to the Jarrow March you've had "disillusioned" communities demanding things change back to the way they were, but it rarely happens.

Whatever about the consequences for Labour, voting to leave the EU will do nothing to bring back the old mines, steelworks, factories, shipyards etc. to these communities.

I find it hard to believe they don't realise this. Considering the raison d'etre for a lot of British manufacturing operations is to sell to the EU (see the various car makers), brexit would at best remove the largest market for British industry. On top of this, it seems the UK are intent on a total free trading system which will undercut their own agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

On top of it all is the bizarre occurence of the "core labour" areas decimated by Thatcher's destruction of British industry supporting a very conservative, free market, anti workers rights movement led by a Prime Minister keen to have herself seen as the next Thatcher.

ancapailldorcha

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I can imagine Montenegro and Serbia joining reasonably quickly, and perhaps Northern Macedonia now that the Greece kerfuffle has been resolved, but Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo would have considerable work to do to complete negotiations.

Not to mention that Turkey's membership bid has been in limbo for the best part of two decades.

Akrasia

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The thought of a gang of UKIPpers and anti-EU Tories marching back into the EU parliament with the sole purpose of sowing division and discord bothers me.

Hopefully May's deal gets through.

If there's a majority to remain, there should be a majority of pro eu MEPs. Due to PR in EU elections, some eurosceptics will be elected but they should be a minority of representatives and the likes of Farage are too lazy to actually turn up to EU committees or to vote so they're pretty inconsequential