Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

EKRIUQ

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

No deal is absolutely not gone, not sure how you could say that? No deal will just been kicked down the road when May's deal doesn't pass... if the extension passes.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

No, it's really not.

J Mysterio

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

ToBeFrank123

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

EU have said renegotiation is not an option particularly on the backstop. If they stick with that, which they probably will, that will be a dead end too. The EU want the UK to remain for a number of reasons. More and more the EU are subtly pushing the UK down the remain path. The result of the (first?) referendum is irrelevant in their eyes.

10000maniacs

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

The EU hit their final ball when they signed off on Mays deal last year. The UK are still running over to the ball but have not returned it yet.

briany

Can someone explain what an extension up to to June would accomplish, bar more circular debates arriving at the same conclusions, and a deal that is agreeable to the HoC but not to the EU or vice-versa?

Again, the EU 27 mightn't even ratify the extension if there aren't real signs that it's worthwhile. The only point to it would be to give each side more time to prepare for the inevitable crash out.

BASHIR

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

Exactly

Such utter bollocks from the UK,
1. no, we don't want the current WA
2. no, we don't want No Deal
3. Ok, extension please

EU: Extension? WTF for?????

what if they vote for no on the extension what happens then
This no deal vote is a joke, an exercise in passing the buck.

Imreoir2

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

If we go down that route, then we could easily see it become a repeating process, 3 months down the line is no-deal any more acceptable? No, how about May's deal? No. Extend again then, and repeat.

One might ask why the EU would allow that, but if the calculation is that the deal won't be accepted in the UK any time soon, then it is a choice of allow an extension or force a no-deal. Allowing an extension is probably the lesser of two evils in that case.

An Ciarraioch

A big increase (10%) in the number of British tourists visiting here in January - mind you, France, Italy and Spain show similar growth, so hardly due to a pre-Brexit rush:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ot/overseastraveljanuary2019/

J Mysterio

Just reading an article on the resignation of Iran's foreign minister. Interesting parallel to Brexit in his comments following resignation:

“We first have to remove our foreign policy from the issue of party and factional fighting,” Zarif said. “The deadly poison for foreign policy is for foreign policy to become an issue of party and factional fighting.”

robinph

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

I think we need an Admiral Ackbar pic for todays happenings.

The extension is just as likely to be rejected as it will be asked as a separate question the following day. They need to be given a choice of two options at each step, not a do you agree to this option or "something else as yet to be decided".

What happens if the extension is rejected is you are straight back to the no-deal option. They should only be having two votes:

1. Mays deal v something else.

Then the "something else" option is:

2. No deal v extension.

Zubeneschamali

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

EU27: "No thanks"

The EU have already said that no member state will block an extension.

charlie14

youcantakethat wrote: »

It is not. Go in to a newsagent and have a look for a newspaper or magazine in Irish. Go out for a meal, and see if any of the menus are in Irish. Go in to a supermarket and see if any of the signs or the self service checkouts are in Irish.
Even shinner bots know that.

Best I can suggest is that perhaps you should get out more and perhaps for starters visit Galway city. Not only is it a beautiful historic city with an excellent social scene, it is one example of where you will not only hear the Irish language spoken on the streets, in shops, restaurants, pubs and clubs, you will see signs in many of them encouraging the use of the language when engaging with their staff.

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

Maybe there are a few currency speculators in the HOC. The £ has gone up 3 points against the $ in the last 24 hours. It's easy to be cynical when you see what has happened in the last 2.5 years.

Imreoir2

robinph wrote: »

I think we need an Admiral Ackbar pic for todays happenings.

The extension is just as likely to be rejected as it will be asked as a separate question the following day. They need to be given a choice of two options at each step, not a do you agree to this option or "something else as yet to be decided".

What happens if the extension is rejected is you are straight back to the no-deal option. They should only be having two votes:

1. Mays deal v something else.

Then the "something else" option is:

2. No deal v extension.

Unfortunatly the only likely result there would be that someone would table an amendment to change the proposal to "This house agrees to none of the above".

Macy0161

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

EU have said renegotiation is not an option particularly on the backstop. If they stick with that, which they probably will, that will be a dead end too.

The EU haven't said no renegotiation. They have said no renegotiation without a change of the UK's self imposed "Red Lines".

If the UK came back and said we want a customs union, renegotiations would start immediately. May is fighting against the HoC taking control, but in an extension the HoC would surely take control, and a customs union would likely command a majority.

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

The HMG is holding an emergency meeting today with business leaders when it realised it would not have enough pallets in a no deal situation!

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-michael-gove-ministers-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2?r=US&IR=T

This was brought publicly up at least 1.5 year ago in September 2017 (and likely before that)

Phytosanitary requirements for entry into the EU (wooden packaging). by @andyblatch64 (Twitter)
https://link.medium.com/CmNfbxcoCU

BobbyBobberson

The UK constantly kicking the can down the road does my absolute tits in. Not sure how people actually involved can be so patient. I mean if we head towards an A50 extension, then what? My god.

robinph

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Unfortunatly the only likely result there would be that someone would table an amendment to change the proposal to "This house agrees to none of the above".

Yep, although I'm not sure they would be able to agree to to the amendment amongst themselves so there might be a chance of a useful vote being had. But by having the three votes of:
Mays deal v ???
No deal v ???
Extension v ???

All that will happen is ??? will get voted through yet again.

Other than the vote where they agreed to trigger article 50, have they actually passed any votes regarding Brexit since then? Even the ones that on the face of it have passed the option they agreed upon each time has been some wishy washy thing about maybe doing something at some point. The only thing they have made definitive choices on were to trigger A50 and not to agree to Mays deal.

seamus

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

There's nothing for the EU to do, as yet.

The HoC has not voted on anything, so the EU have nothing to work with. They're still waiting on the UK to sign the Withdrawal Agreement.

In principle, the EU will see the request for the extension "incoming", but there's no context for it. No indication of what the UK might use an extension for, no indication of how long an extension they would ask for.

And without both of these pieces of information, the EU cannot vote on whether it would in principle allow an extension.

Aside from that, if the EU were to convene today and approve an extension in principle, then that becomes a political football in the UK.

"The EU are attempting to delay or even cancel Brexit, insulting the democratic will of the people by seducing us with an extension that we haven't asked for", or "The EU are insulting us with an offer of a six-week extension that is unworkable for us. They don't want us in their club at all".

At best, Juncker should come out with a clear declaration of whether an extension request would even be possible in the tight timelines. Make it clear that simply asking for an extension doesn't mean that it can be granted before the 29th March.

An Ciarraioch

Meaningful vote could happen next week:

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1100398124525326336

VinLieger

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meaningful vote could happen next week:

http://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1100398124525326336

Interesting, they still won't get all the required SI's passed in time for that though

Laois_Man

J Mysterio wrote: »

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

And the other option..........

4. Corbyn's amendment to send May's deal to a people vote!

Hard to know what would happen to that after the other 3.

Leroy42

TM only said she would aim for a short extension, not that that would be the limit if it.

Today was clearly about taking the wind out of the Cooper/Letwin sails, To try to remain in control. And it will probably work.

But I don't for a second think the that what May said to day will happen as people seem to think.

Why not take No deal off the table right away? What possible purpose is there to keep it for another two weeks?

What is the plan for the extension period and who will determine the length of it? Will the HoC get a vote on its proposed length, will the EU have a say? What happens if it crosses unto July?

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU have already said that no member state will block an extension.

...for a valid reason. They have also said there is no point extending for no reason.

Zubeneschamali

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

...for a valid reason. They have also said there is no point extending for no reason.

Avoiding No Deal Crashout is a reason.

What would taking No Deal off the table mean? Would it be law? And if so would it leave everything in a stasis that cannot be broken from within?

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Avoiding No Deal Crashout is a reason.

Its not really as theres no guarantee 2 more months would lead to that, if there was a guarantee of a referendum or the HOC passed the WA then an extension to get the ducks in order for either is a proper reason.

An Ciarraioch

Foolishly, looks like Cooper-Letwin will be pulled:

http://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1100419897987878912

ambro25

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Foolishly, looks like Cooper-Letwin will be pulled:

http://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1100419897987878912

I'd like to say "unbelievable", consideting the sheer number of times May has rick-rolled MPs out of taking meaningful votes along the way with her empty promises, promptly forgotten and otherwise reneged on every single time...

...if I wasn't already long-convinced, that these empty promises are as useful to MPs for their political self-preservation, as the EU's soundbites have been to Theresa May's own political self-preservation.

What a sorry charade.