Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

oscarBravo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I haven't said the EU are going to shaft us?

Maybe I'm confusing you with someone who kept predicting that the EU's backing for us in the whole Brexit debacle wouldn't last. If so, apologies.

A fully federal EU would require radical treaty change, agreed and ratified by all the member states. It's not on the cards.

Irishmale0399

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I haven't said the EU are going to shaft us?


I said we need to decide whether we are going to be part of a federal Europe or not.


I haven't articulated a judgement either way.

What is the honest alternative??? Either in or follow the English...which one do you want???



I for one would pick Europe. Up to today Ireland has done very well from EU membership and an EU army....aint gonna change much. I remember as far back as the 80s that lads were going out to Lebenon on UN missions and still have school mates doing it today. An EU army is not going to go to war with anyone too quickly...if anything it will be to protect against Russia etc.. Furthermore the EU would support us protecting our coast line and air space, something which we depend on the UK today to do.

Kermit.de.frog

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Furthermore the EU would support us protecting our coast line and air space, something which we depend on the UK today to do.

But that's choices Irish governments have made. I have always advocated that Ireland should have more capacity than it does to defend it's own "neutrality".

You can't be neutral and yet reliant on others for basic capabilities.

Ireland could have beefed up defence capabilities super fast if it had the political will. I mean basic defence capabilities - a proper resourced navy and air corps for a country this size which for some reason we don't have.

We don't need the EU for this stuff.

That's our own government choices.

prawnsambo

Jim2007 wrote: »

The whole point of a customs union as recognised by the WTO is that it operates as a single block, so no independent trading is not going to happen while they remain in the customs union, the WTO will not accept it.

Turkey is in the customs union with the EU. And it has external trade deals.

Kermit.de.frog

oscarBravo wrote: »

Maybe I'm confusing you with someone who kept predicting that the EU's backing for us in the whole Brexit debacle wouldn't last. If so, apologies.

NP. Certainly not me your referring to. I have defended the Irish government's tactics with the EU to stop Britain abusing this country through Brexit with the border and peace in the north.

I am a little surprised the solidarity is still holding though.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I said we need to decide whether we are going to be part of a federal Europe or not.

Why do we need to decide?
The Irish people have shown themselves to be very pro-EU so why do you think we need to make a formal decision on it? What would the point of that be?

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

It's very worrying although I would like to think that British supermarket chains would insist on total traceability as they do now.
To be fair to the US,their chemical packaging regulations are more stringent than ours-we use a lot of US manufactured chemicals where I work and the potential hazards and properties of the drum contents are meticulously displayed.

The US are great at putting on a show. You can't walk into any public building in California without being warned that the very fact of being there will expose you "chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer and birth defects or other reproductive harm." Like the "no guns" stickers on almost every City Hall door, there's no appetite at government level to actually legislate to remove the threat, mainly to keep significant campaign donors happy.

VinLieger wrote: »

US farmers wont agree to it, theres no if ands or buts its not going to happen

Well, yes/no/maybe. On the one hand, there's the legislative impotence/commercial disincentive noted above, so there's little likelihood US farmers will be asked to agree to anything.

On the other, there's a biological catastrophe just waiting to happen in the US beef industry, due to the twin challenges of super-high stocking densities in feed lots in the south (same problem as anti-vaxxer children spreading measles in Disneyland); and the free-range grazing in the north (uncontrolled contact with wildlife; same problem as TB in UK/Irish cattle). For both of those reasons, US farmers have a vested interest in the kind of traceability that would satisfy EU regulators.

There's also a strong commercial case for retailers to promote hormone-free, GM-free, antibiotic-free meat. It's already on sale in most major US supermarkets, so there's no reason to think that UK supermarkets wouldn't continue the same tactic (see Tesco example cited earlier). Of course, these products are targeted at customers with a certain level of disposable income and "awareness" ... not exactly the Leave-voting demographic.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am a little surprised the solidarity is still holding though.

It is in the EU's interest to show solidarity too so why are you surprised at the fairly obvious?

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is why Irish people need to ask themselves and consider very carefully whether this is the direction they want their country to go.

Like it or not there are choices coming in the years ahead about where Ireland should be.

A sovereign country or not a sovereign country.

We can only go on for so much longer pretending this country is independent and charts it's own destiny.

But maybe a federal Europe is what Irish people want at the end of the day - or at the least they wouldn't mind it.

Well, once upon a time we and the UK had many common interests. We were undoubtedly stronger together in lobbying for our desired outcomes, but we have to now accept that time has passed. The UK has had a hysteric fit and is out of action, not to be relied upon.

With the UK gone, we could conceivably be marginalised on certain issues or have our voice diluted, which is bad, but on the other hand, we have proven our commitment to the EU and have strong goodwill through Brexit, our approach to the financial crisis, and the general 'everyone like the Irish' thing.

The application of our 'soft power'/ diplomatic reach has been impressive through Brexit and there's no particular reason to believe this will stop with Brexit or is only so pronounced due to Brexit. Many countries throughout the world will again light their national monuments in green for St. Patricks day in just a few weeks, to include the Eiffel Tower and the Brandenburg Gate.

Though Macron is all for further integration, and defence development etc., that's not really new. This stuff takes time and consensus needs to be built. It will have to be softly, softly to an extent anyway as, while Brexit has largely knocked the stuffing out of xenophobic, nationalist and seperatist parties throughout Europe, they are not gone and there is no sense in unnecessarily provoking these elements right now.

RE this point:

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We can only go on for so much longer pretending this country is independent and charts it's own destiny.

What do you think is going to happen? Under any of the current or imagined proposals we will still have a wealth of autonomy, much as we do now, but with enhanced institutions with better representation. Many of the ideas are eminently sensible.

When people make this argument about sovereignty, I wonder what destiny people think we might be precluded from realising? The question conjures in my mind that mythical Ireland of De Valeras imaging, which actually parallels to the imagining some Brexiteers have of returning to the glory of Great Britain. Its all silly stuff, the EU - for us - is a boon, a no-brainer.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

Turkey is in the customs union with the EU. And it has external trade deals.

In all of which its tariffs match those of the EU

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Why do we need to decide?
The Irish people have shown themselves to be very pro-EU so why do you think we need to make a formal decision on it? What would the point of that be?

I think the minor matter of extinguishing our status as one of the world's 195 independent, sovereign countries should be a question asked of the people to be honest.

They might not want that yet this is the direction of travel.

I'm not saying that's a good or bad thing but the population should decide.

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But that's choices Irish governments have made. I have always advocated that Ireland should have more capacity than it does to defend it's own "neutrality".

You can't be neutral and yet reliant on others for basic capabilities.

Ireland could have beefed up defence capabilities super fast if it had the political will. I mean basic defence capabilities - a proper resourced navy and air corps for a country this size which for some reason we don't have.

We don't need the EU for this stuff.

That's our own government choices.

Costs a lot of taxpayer money to finance that. Not sure who might be after us to warrant it and we have powerful allies on our doorstep.

We do better to have a low profile with a small but well trained military (who helps in peacekeeping).

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think the minor matter of extinguishing our status as one of the world's 195 independent, sovereign countries should be a question asked of the people to be honest.

They might not want that yet this is the direction of travel.

I'm not saying that's a good or bad thing but the population should decide.

Let us know what particular aspects of our sovereignty you are worried about losing - then we can analyse the likelihood or otherwise of such.

First Up

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I think the minor matter of extinguishing our status as one of the world's 195 independent, sovereign countries should be a question asked of the people to be honest.

Do you think the sovereign independence of France, Germany, Italy and the other EU members is similarly threatened?

Or might it be that countries like Malta, Slovenia, Estonia - and yes Ireland - enjoy a status and role that would be impossible if they were operating on their own in a global economy?

Kermit.de.frog

First Up wrote: »

Do you think the sovereign independence of France, Germany, Italy and the other EU members is similarly threatened?

Yes, of course. All EU member states.

First Up

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Yes, of course. All EU member states.

And is this an observable result of EU membership as you travel in and deal with the different member countries?

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, of course. All EU member states.

Do you not enjoy the greatest piece and prosperity this close ties connection and union has brought here.

One which is being steadily chipped at by a strong man trying to assert external power to reflect away from internal failings. In the East.

J Mysterio

Damning article in NY Times about 'Failing Grayling'

LONDON — They call him “Failing Grayling.”

While the trials, tribulations and humiliations of Prime Minister Theresa May have occupied center stage in the carnival of British politics, Chris Grayling has starred in a black comedy sideshow of his own. He has bumbled his way from one government post to another, accused of making a hash of each, and becoming a byword for haplessness in a golden age of political blundering in Britain.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/europe/grayling-ferries-uk.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Once upon a time an article such as this would almost be a diplomatic incident.

Sam Russell

J Mysterio wrote: »

Damning article in NY Times about 'Failing Grayling'

Once upon a time an article such as this would almost be a diplomatic incident.

The Ems telegram started the 1870 Franco Prussian war. Bismark edited the text and manufactured the 'insult' that led to the war.

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

Personally I prefer British or Irish beef as they are subject to stringent quality control i believe -the horror stories of US beef is very worrying.

Guess it would have to be to make sure there's no horse in it. That was pretty centered on the UK and Ireland iirc.

Irish Praetorian

J Mysterio wrote: »

Let us know what particular aspects of our sovereignty you are worried about losing - then we can analyse the likelihood or otherwise of such.

Thought this was an interesting question so I might bump it in case it gets buried.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

In all of which its tariffs match those of the EU

Well yes. That is the meaning of 'customs union'.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Finally someone wanting to do something about Russian cyberwarfare.

Well if anyone understands the power of social media, it's Macron. It was the means by which he himself got elected and built his party from nothing.

prawnsambo

Oh dear Lord. This must be absolutely devastating for Honda workers.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Oh dear Lord. This must be absolutely devastating for Honda workers.

One has to wonder how many people will continue to believe that this has nothing to do wth Brexit? The natural assumption is that faced with the crushing weight of reality, you have to bow to the inevitable and accept you were wrong. In reality though, the worse it gets, the more people will cling to the lie to protect themselves. It's like the end of a cult.

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

One has to wonder how many people will continue to believe that this has nothing to do wth Brexit? The natural assumption is that faced with the crushing weight of reality, you have to bow to the inevitable and accept you were wrong. In reality though, the worse it gets, the more people will cling to the lie to protect themselves. It's like the end of a cult.

The denial can only last another 5-6 weeks max. Leave voters are going to have a calamity visited on them in coming weeks. They may lash out and blame the wrong people but they won't be able to deny a disaster is unfolding.

People have suggested the EU will be blamed but it's going to be very hard for the Leave side and the millions of disciples to conceal that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster and a failure.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Turkey is in the customs union with the EU. And it has external trade deals.

It's in a customs union for manufactured goods and for those it takes EU rules that it has no say in. And wait at the hard border for checks on goods and passports. But no tariffs on the goods.

For other stuff like agriculture it's not in a customs union.
And it's only on those things they can make external trade deals on.

Larbre34

I wonder if it will ever be fully comprehended or acknowledged by that cohort.

Its like our friend the Fermanagh farming UDR/RIR man on the doco tonight, they'll stick like limpets to the narrative that its 'overblown' 'overplayed' 'we've survived worse' 'a G7 economy' 'Varadkar is the one playing with fire / bringing about a hard border' etc etc...

And the reason they will, in my view, is that neither the senior members of the May cabinet (ie the First Lords with the keys to the Kingdom) nor the pragmatic majority in Parliament will permit a calamitous crash out as they will have been briefed on the true nature of the consequences and are frightened out of their wits of it.

So, if Brexit happens at all, it will be soft and the post WA transition period will bring about a negotiated mutuality on many areas that affect the daily lives of ordinary punters, so that the Express and Telegraph readers will spend the next 10 years moaning about how diluted it was while never actually having been presented with the reality of how life changing it could have been.

Ignorance truly is bliss.

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think the minor matter of extinguishing our status as one of the world's 195 independent, sovereign countries should be a question asked of the people to be honest.

They might not want that yet this is the direction of travel.

I'm not saying that's a good or bad thing but the population should decide.

Should such a proposal be advanced, the population will get to decide. A constitutional amendment will be needed, and that requires a referendum.

McGiver

Irishmale0399 wrote:

I for one would pick Europe. Up to today Ireland has done very well from EU membership and an EU army....aint gonna change much. I remember as far back as the 80s that lads were going out to Lebenon on UN missions and still have school mates doing it today. An EU army is not going to go to war with anyone too quickly...if anything it will be to protect against Russia etc.. Furthermore the EU would support us protecting our coast line and air space, something which we depend on the UK today to do.

Irishmale0399 wrote:

What is the honest alternative??? Either in or follow the English...which one do you want???

Actually, and realistically, what we see today is the emergence of three competing systems and trade blocks:
1. US - corporatist capitalism - largely unregulated or tailor-regulated to the corporations by essentially a corporate takeover of the legislative and the executive
2. China - corporatist state capitalism - regulated in a one party political system, corporations created by and linked to the state
3. EU - regulated capitalism i.e. social democratic market economy - moderately regulated in a democratic system, corporations unable to take over the legislative and the executive

I thinking Chinese system is out for anyone sane in Europe, so it's down to US vs EU model. Either we let the corporations to control the state processes and end up with low food, labour, consumer, chemical and social standards as in the US or we regulate them and end up with high standards as in the EU. I don't see any other way than the EU model and for that to work effectively against the competing US model, federal arrangement will be necessary sooner or later - it is not about if but about when and this is what will be actively debated in the EU in coming years. Realistically, I would say we are at least 20 years away, but I an confident we will see further integrationist steps taken as we move on.