Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

McGiver wrote: »

the point is that HMG will never agree to it and a point can be made that EEA is pointless because EU membership is better, cheaper and enables UK to shape EEA legislation and rules.

Firstly, we have no idea what this government will finally agree to. May will ignore every previous statement or position as a negotiationg tactic if she thinks it'll keep her in #10 an extra day.

Secondly, if not this government, the next one.

Thirdly, EU membership is better than every possible Brexit, so this is not an argument against EEA membership. If they are really going to Brexit at all, EEA is better than Hard Brexit.

Beechwoodspark

Whatever version of Brexit happens, Might there a case to be made for EU funding for increased funding for the Irish armed forces to patrol the border as necessary

McMurphy

Fast moving thread, and hard to keep up with at times.

I have been talking with s good few people in the north through work - and they're almost convinced that Brexit will not even happen now.

From a good mate of mine, this is what he says, and I quote him word for word.

It has been Mays plan all along to run down the clock then when there's no time left say it's my deal or no deal and she will get enough Labour and libs to back her to outnumber the erg, DUP and snp

This particular guy is well up to speed on politics might I add, but I'm guessing it's wishful thinking on his part.

What's the general consensus on here now?

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

The UK already sells services worldwide. What trade "deals" do you expect that will improve on its current access to those markets?

I hope they are good ones because they will probably have to replace a lot of the business they currently do within the EU.

Well the obvious one is healthcare. It's the big bogeyman in the room concerning the future of the NHS. And it's widely suspected that it's already got a price tag with a dollar sign on it.

On the passport thing; I would be entitled to a UK password but it would cost me the guts of 1500 quid to apply and confirm entitlement. We could have at least done something along those lines.

farmchoice

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Fast moving thread, and hard to keep up with at times.

I have been talking with s good few people in the north through work - and they're almost convinced that Brexit will not even happen now.

From a good mate of mine, this is what he says, and I quote him word for word.
It has been Mays plan all along to run down the clock then when there's no time left say it's my deal or no deal and she will get enough Labour and libs to back her to outnumber the erg, DUP and snp



This particular guy is well up to speed on politics might I add, but I'm guessing it's wishful thinking on his part.

What's the general consensus on here now?

that is the working assumption at the moment.
its just that the British parliamentary system is in such a state of paralysis at present that May could very easily lose control and her plan may unravel, this has happened to her a number of times so far so its far from unlikely.
this would not be the end of the would except we are dealing with a ticking clock so paralysis does not lead to the status quo it leads to chaos.


having said all that from day 1 i have believed there will either be no brexit at all or the softest of brexits, when all is said and done and i am more convinced of that than ever.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

On the passport thing; I would be entitled to a UK password but it would cost me the guts of 1500 quid to apply and confirm entitlement. We could have at least done something along those lines.

Afaik, once you get to grandparents, the costs ramp up. You have to apply for foreign births registration which costs €270 for an adult.

Igotadose

Well, no surprise here, but still depressing to read:
"Armed Garda units posted on 24-hour Border patrol"
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/armed-garda-units-posted-on-24hour-border-patrol-37879577.html

Whether or not this happens, it's yet another cost inflicted by Brexit. These guards would be better deployed elsewhere if there were no Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Dismissing a link simply because you dislike a source is against the charter. Posts deleted.

lawred2

well the content of that article states 'plans' as in nothing has happened as of yet - and nothing might ever need to happen depending on the next few weeks

headline however states - "Armed Garda units posted on 24-hour Border patrol" and lines up this nice glossy image



The indo have for some unknown reason been pushing a narrative that a hard border will be the Irish governments doing... almost like we're itching to make the first move... sounds very like a refrain from a DUP/Tory playbook to me.

SNIP. No more name calling please.

ToBeFrank123

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Fast moving thread, and hard to keep up with at times.

I have been talking with s good few people in the north through work - and they're almost convinced that Brexit will not even happen now.

From a good mate of mine, this is what he says, and I quote him word for word.



This particular guy is well up to speed on politics might I add, but I'm guessing it's wishful thinking on his part.

What's the general consensus on here now?

There's a very slim chance of Labour backing her deal but they'd want something in return such as the promise of a GE after all the Brext legislation is voted through - she needs them for that too. Its unlikely however Labour will come to her aide. They want a second referendum now. Why would they dig her and the conservatives out of a hole? So the conservatives can go into the next GE saying they successfully delivered Brexit? Corbyn like May will always put the good of the party before the good of the country.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

Well the obvious one is healthcare. It's the big bogeyman in the room concerning the future of the NHS. And it's widely suspected that it's already got a price tag with a dollar sign on it.

I was asking what services the UK will be able to export better.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

I was asking what services the UK will be able to export better.

Well since I never suggested that they would be better off, I'm at a loss as to why you would think I'd have to provide examples.

ancapailldorcha

A nice little infographic from the BBC showing the current state of play:



There are still days when I can't believe that Parliament allowed things to deteriorate to this extent. In the event of an extension, unanimous approval of all 27 other EU states will be required.

ToBeFrank123

In summary I think it is:
1. No Deal
2. Mays Deal with no legal backstop guarantees - EU not for turning
3. Second referendum

The only reason for a lengthy extension is to have a second referendum. The EU aren't for turning on anything else. A short term extension might be needed if Mays deal goes through before March 29th.

VinLieger

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There are still days when I can't believe that Parliament allowed things to deteriorate to this extent. In the event of an extension, unanimous approval of all 27 other EU states will be required.

They arent even ready to leave with a deal on March 29th, they are still massively behind schedule passing their SI's

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A nice little infographic from the BBC showing the current state of play:



There are still days when I can't believe that Parliament allowed things to deteriorate to this extent. In the event of an extension, unanimous approval of all 27 other EU states will be required.

those seven options look remarkably like the seven options in front of them over 2 years ago..

Leroy42

That info graphic always strikes me as wrong. If they vote against leaving with No deal, then why, if they vote against an extension is it taken a it reverts back to no deal? Surely it needs to go back to vote on TM deal and start the process again?

ancapailldorcha

VinLieger wrote: »

They arent even ready to leave with a deal on March 29th, they are still massively behind schedule passing their SI's

This is an excellent point. I genuinely don't know what happens if there is a crash out on the 29th.

Leroy42 wrote: »

That info graphic always strikes me as wrong. If they vote against leaving with No deal, then why, if they vote against an extension is it taken a it reverts back to no deal? Surely it needs to go back to vote on TM deal and start the process again?

It seems to me that the only option that satisfies both a mandate for no deal and no WA is the withdrawal of Article 50. Ideally, we'd get an extension to allow for a referendum and with the EU Parliament elections there's literally no room for can kicking.

ToBeFrank123

lawred2 wrote: »

those seven options look remarkably like the seven options in front of them over 2 years ago..

There is definitely a cyclical nature to all this. Extending the deadline for anything other than a new referendum (or legislating for Mays deal) just means another revolution of the same cycle.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

They arent even ready to leave with a deal on March 29th, they are still massively behind schedule passing their SI's

I've never really looked into it in any depth, but my understanding of SIs (here) is that they are Ministerial orders that are given authority by primary legislation and don't have to be passed by the Dail. Is this different in Westminster?

Leroy42

I agree, the UK are horribly, and apparently hopelessly, stuck. There is a lack on consensus for any single course of action.

Nobody can come up with a single answer that even deals with their own issues, never mind dealing with the issues of others.

The Government continue to say that No Deal is terrible for the country, they are working on getting a deal (they have one) yet will not rule out No deal. But then can't explain why a No deal option would be worthwhile or in any way better than what they currently have (EU membership).

The people can't decide what they want. They want to get it over and done with, without knowing that 29th March no matter what will not deliver that. They haven't given any detail of what they want or expect from future trade deals.

No matter what way they turn to run into issues can they seemingly have no answer to.

Enzokk

One of the problems for May is that MPs are going to have to back down on their position from 2 months ago when nothing has changed. She is not bringing a different deal or even more clarifications from the EU that MPs can get behind. It is the same deal with the same assurances, so her only card is the threat of no-deal and any deal that is passed on the back of a threat surely is doomed to fail in the long run.

CelticRambler

iguana wrote: »

This has the potential to create a situation where maybe half of the population of this part of the UK are also EU citizens. What sort of obligations may the EU have if tensions escalate in NI?

Nody wrote: »

In short; none. The long answer is that they are considered dual Irish citizens and it's the Irish state that's responsible for how it's own citizens are treated and not EU's responsibility as it's not a centralized power.

Peregrinus wrote: »

The result is that immediately after Brexit Northern Ireland will be a region outside the EU in which a majority of the population - and virtually the entire adult population - will be EU citizens.

To my mind, this isn't a problem in the making for the EU, but for the UK. As I've argued earlier on this thread, it will possibly be the first time that any state grants enhanced rights to one group of citizens based solely on their place of birth. However, it will remain nothing more than a potential problem for many years - the time needed for a critical mass of NI residents to acquire and use Irish passports to the point where it creates an observable difference between them and their Scottish/Cornish/Kentish peers. Chances are that the socio-political landscape will have changed in other ways by then, e.g. Irish Reunification or the UK rejoining the EU, rendering the discrepancy redundant.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

It is the same deal with the same assurances, so her only card is the threat of no-deal and any deal that is passed on the back of a threat surely is doomed to fail in the long run.

In that context, it's rather ironic that mantra for so long was that no-deal couldn't be ruled out as it was the UK's greatest leverage in negotiating with with EU. In the end, it counted for nothing in those negotiations, but is no TM's greatest leverage when dealing with the HoC.

Leroy42

More easy puff interviews and reporting in the media today.

Jeremy Hunt states on R4, through a report in the Guardian, that positive signals coming from Brussels

“The signals we are getting are reasonably positive. I don’t want to overstate them because I still think there’s a lot of work to do but I think they do understand that we are being sincere. "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/05/brexit-positive-signals-coming-from-brussels-says-jeremy-hunt

But at no point he is asked to give some details. To actually expand on what that sentence means. He then goes on to state that the cabinet don't want no deal, but whilst it will cause problems he minimises the effects and says

“I have always said whatever happens in negotiations, we are a strong country and will find a way to prosper".

Now, I get it. Politicians are going to say meaningless stuff rather than state facts, but with less than a month to go for the media in the UK to still be operating on the basis that they shouldn't ask too much or simply accept what they are told is incredible. That is even before you acknowledge that both prior to the campaign and ever since the government and ministers have been found to have been economical with the truth.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

That info graphic always strikes me as wrong. If they vote against leaving with No deal, then why, if they vote against an extension is it taken a it reverts back to no deal? Surely it needs to go back to vote on TM deal and start the process again?

Time and the law being what it is, if the process does not resolve itself before the 29th of March, then No-Deal will have happened regardless.

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

those seven options look remarkably like the seven options in front of them over 2 years ago..

I know. Believe me. I know.

joe40

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/theresa-may-did-not-understand-eu-when-she-triggered-brexit

Interesting article from Guardian. Nothing we don't know but really just highlights the incompetence around this whole fiasco

ancapailldorcha

joe40 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/theresa-may-did-not-understand-eu-when-she-triggered-brexit

Interesting article from Guardian. Nothing we don't know but really just highlights the incompetence around this whole fiasco

To be completely fair to the woman, this would apply to most people in the UK. Just after the referendum you had people search for info on what the EU is and what happens after a Leave vote win (Source). This happened after the referendum.