Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is from the SMMT which represents the UK car industry. Gives a very good picture of how the whole industry works.

You'd have to ask why the Remain side couldn't convey stats like this before the referendum and the importance of SM trade. If they did it all got lost or ignored. I really do think the Remain side ran a poor campaign.

Professor Moriarty

Nissan about to cut back production of the Qashqai in Sunderland which will threaten 400 existing jobs. I'm feeling sorry for Britain now.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You'd have to ask why the Remain side couldn't convey stats like this before the referendum and the importance of SM trade. If they did it all got lost or ignored. I really do think the Remain side ran a poor campaign.

That was because of the strategy of the leave campaign: Don't get bogged down in details and don't evince a plan of any kind so that you can't get caught defending the indefensible. That was actually the strategy, learned from the mistakes made in the Scottish referendum campaign.

So if you look back, you'll see plenty of statements about not leaving the SM or the CU or denying that it would be a hard brexit and proclaiming about unicorns and sunlit uplands and having cake whilst eating it. The remain campaign were left boxing shadows, because it would either be denied that [whatever] was going to be the outcome or else the failsafe fallback of 'project fear'.

Seth Brundle

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Oh I'm fully aware of the differences. The modern Mini is essentially a BMW but the brand itself is a British one, or at least was, but is now owned by BMW.

...but one of my points was that even the spelling of the new MINI is different to the old Mini (caps).
BMW didnt try and recreate the old brand. They built a completely new one.
Anyhow, we're straying off topic.

Tacitus Kilgore

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nissan about to cut back production of the Qashqai in Sunderland which will threaten 400 existing jobs. I'm feeling sorry for Britain now.

Same, even if Brexit is called off, the damage is done.

The UK has a lot to sort out, in particular they need to cure what caused Brexit.

Starting with the propaganda machines that seem to have full free reign to spout lies, populism & division.

No good was ever going to come from this, it's squeaky bum time for the UK, I feel terrible for anyone who voted remain, or who has changed their mind since the vote, and I feel nothing but contempt for those who are so blindly rooted in their beliefs that they still cannot see what's in right front of them, they're still marching on towards the cliff - still singing about ruling the waves.


I do reckon the EU will throw the UK a life buoy once they hit the water, but it will have a prickly string attached to it.

Leroy42

And they are still at it. Leave.EU said before the vote that exit would not be off a cliff but

"a careful change, not a sudden stop. WE will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave"

Yet now the likes of JRM, Johnson, Davis etc are all saying that they have to leave on 29th March, will of the people etc.

And even at this stage, as I pointed out in regards to the R4 interview with Jeremy Hunt this morning, they are talking in vagueness and generalities, and yet the UK media and public seem totally unconcerned.

They do not talk in details because the public, seemingly, don't want details. They are happy with slogans and brief headlines.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

And they are still at it. Leave.EU said before the vote that exit would not be off a cliff but

Yet now the likes of JRM, Johnson, Davis etc are all saying that they have to leave on 29th March, will of the people etc.

And even at this stage, as I pointed out in regards to the R4 interview with Jeremy Hunt this morning, they are talking in vagueness and generalities, and yet the UK media and public seem totally unconcerned.

They do not talk in details because the public, seemingly, don't want details. They are happy with slogans and brief headlines.

The media are a disaster. At this point, they should be saying "You're lying, aren't you?" in every interview.

What could the hard Brexiteers do in response.....sue them? No chance they'd win in a court of law.

Junkyard Tom

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nissan about to cut back production of the Qashqai in Sunderland which will threaten 400 existing jobs. I'm feeling sorry for Britain now.

I just hope the erstwhile 'ruling classes' get the blame for all this when the dust settles. Listen to this guys anecdote on David Davis being accepted into the Tory Hierarchy for nothing other than blind confidence.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nissan about to cut back production of the Qashqai in Sunderland which will threaten 400 existing jobs. I'm feeling sorry for Britain now.

It is only human to feel sorry for them, but on the other hand I feel that they are sleepwalking themselves into this.

Where are the demands to the local MP's. Where are the cries on QT? Where are the journalists demanding answers from JRM? Why is Johnson not being hounded over his claims, the same for Davis and Gove?

Where are people continuing to state 'just get on with it' without knowing what it is. They have shown no regard for the likes of NI, Gibraltar or anywhere else. They don't seem to care when companies announce closures. Nobody even raised a whimper when TM announced the ended of FoM for 60m British citizens in the EU.

They have given up their democratic responsibilities, they appear to think that that one day in June 2016 relives them of any and all responsibility and now they simply have to sit back and accept whatever happens.

So don't feel to sorry for them, whether they will admit it or not this is all their own doing (or not doing as the case may be).

ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nissan about to cut back production of the Qashqai in Sunderland which will threaten 400 existing jobs. I'm feeling sorry for Britain now.

Why feel sorry for them or the people of Sunderland?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-sunderland-result-vote-brexit-leave-live-latest-remain-a7098776.html

Sunderland has voted to leave the EU by a larger margin than expected, with 61 per cent voting to leave and 39 per cent voting to remain in the European Union

Ignorance is no defense as they say.

Leroy42

I don't blame them for the vote itself, I understand how they were lied to and deceived in that campaign. (well I do, but i can at least understand it).

What I do blame them for is not doing something about it now that the reality is coming out. Now that the promises of the campaign have turned out to be lies. Now that it is clear that few, if any, understood the EU or any of the benefits it could bring.

That the politicians have failed to deliver anything even remotely like they said they could. When the likes of Liam Fox has completely failed in his job. When the likes of Davis and Raab failed and yet continue to pontificate from the sidelines. When not one of them has been able to point out even a single tangible benefit to all of this.

The vast amounts of money that have been spent, money that could have been used on other things.

And yet, and yet, we see only small drifts in any polls. We see people demanding the following of the democratic will of the people whilst watching as the very democracy that they seemingly love is being torn to shreds.

prawnsambo

I'm not sure if anyone here ever read Riverbend's blog on the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. In her last post in April 2013, she said something that resonates strongly today.

We are learning that ignorance is the death of civilized societies and that everyone thinks their particular form of fanaticism is acceptable.

We are learning how easy it is to manipulate populations with their own prejudices.

ancapailldorcha

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Why feel sorry for them or the people of Sunderland?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-sunderland-result-vote-brexit-leave-live-latest-remain-a7098776.html



Ignorance is no defense as they say.

Except that doesn't show if the Nissan employees themselves or those in dependent sectors voted remain or leave.

It's hard to defend people who are losing their jobs and still thinking Leave is the way to go but anyone else deserves sympathy IMO.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Except that doesn't show if the Nissan employees themselves or those in dependent sectors voted remain or leave.

It's hard to defend people who are losing their jobs and still thinking Leave is the way to go but anyone else deserves sympathy IMO.

A Nissan worker wrote a blog post recently and he estimates that around 50% of Nissan Sunderland workers voted Leave. He says from conversations with them that they thought the plant would be completely immune to a Leave vote and was 'too big to fail'.

Professor Moriarty

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Why feel sorry for them or the people of Sunderland?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-sunderland-result-vote-brexit-leave-live-latest-remain-a7098776.html



Ignorance is no defense as they say.

I know. But they were manipulated and deceived. The ordinary Brit is fine - no more or less than the ordinary Irish person - it's the Tory elite and its media that I blame.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

A Nissan worker wrote a blog post recently and he estimates that around 50% of Nissan Sunderland workers voted Leave. He says from conversations with them that they thought the plant would be completely immune to a Leave vote and was 'too big to fail'.

Would you have a link? My curiosity has been piqued.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I know. But they were manipulated and deceived. The ordinary Brit is fine - no more or less than the ordinary Irish person - it's the Tory elite and its media that I blame.

They were but political discourse here has been mired in an absurd false dichotomy where saying that is taken to mean that 17.4 million people are morons. Or worse. Or undemocratic. Or... Well, you see what I'm getting that. Else, you must proclaim Brexit the will of the people as if it were divinely ordained.

So, the remain side has taken to throwing out tedious anodyne statements which dodge the underlying issues as to why people voted leave and discussion has stagnated as a result.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Would you have a link? My curiosity has been piqued.



They were but political discourse here has been mired in an absurd false dichotomy where saying that is taken to mean that 17.4 million people are morons. Or worse. Or undemocratic. Or... Well, you see what I'm getting that. So, the remain side has taken to throwing out tedious anodyne statements which dodge the underlying issues as to why people voted leave.

They primarily voted because of immigration and sovereignty. Two dog whistle issues that the likes of Farage and Johnson gleefully exploited. And then they lied about future trade deals, the NHS etc. Frustrated ordinary people who were conditioned over decades and then deceived.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

A Nissan worker wrote a blog post recently and he estimates that around 50% of Nissan Sunderland workers voted Leave. He says from conversations with them that they thought the plant would be completely immune to a Leave vote and was 'too big to fail'.

I've often felt that this is the same 'philosophy' that has leave voters believing that everything will be fine and Britain is too big to fail also. It's easy to look around your local area of [whatever]ham and see the big high street chains, the football stadia, the industrial parks and the massive buildings that house some of these factories and just think that they are too big and too permanent to be rocked by disconnecting from countries that may have no similar frame of reference for them. The EU is just a notion, a phantasm of faceless bureaucrats who make rules and nothing else. What connection it has to their daily lives has been obscured by an unfettered press and political class who only see it as a handy scapegoat for all the ills that beset them.

prawnsambo

The French can always be relied upon to come up with some outside the box thinking.

Here's what it's going to be like mes amis.

J Mysterio

Boris showing great diplomatic skill again during a trip to India - calling Juncker, Tusk, Tajani et all 'bastards'.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1875544/Video-particular-b-Boris-Johnson-lays-EU-democracy.html

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Boris showing great diplomatic skill again during a trip to India - calling Juncker, Tusk, Tajani et all 'bastards'.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1875544/Video-particular-b-Boris-Johnson-lays-EU-democracy.html

Par for the course for Boris. He's speaking to his base much as Trump speaks to his. I doubt if Tusk or Juncker will give it the oxygen of a reply.

Reminds me of a line from The Professionals when Grant says to Rico "You bastard.". To which, Rico replies "Yes sir. In my case an accident of birth. But you, you're a self-made man.".

blanch152

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

A hard Brexit would not be ideal for European car manufacturers either.

I would imagine a lot of high end cars, especially German cars, like Mercs, Audis, BMWs are sold in the UK. A hard Brexit will hit sales if tariffs are applied.

The UK is a huge car market so I don't think the car makers can abandon manufacturing there fully.

Brexit really is a lose-lose for everyone, particularly the European car makers. However, if tariffs were not applied to electric vehicles it might encourage the car makers to prioritize these models so there might be a win there. Wishful thinking possibly.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

But that would mean a tariff which could be around 20% - I'm not sure of WTO rules around manufactured goods.

So a 50K car becomes a 60K car. 10K is a lot when buying a car.

Likewise they could manufacture within the UK and sell it within the UK for 10K less. It could in turn mean more new jobs in the UK for suppliers of car parts.

You'd wonder how countries survived before the SM!

Within five years of Brexit, all car manufacturers will have pulled out of the UK.

For the masses, a UK-only production of something like a Lada or a Dongfeng could be produced locally with UK parts for the domestic market. Anyone with a bit of money would pay the tariff for a European car.

Irishmale0399

Very interesting was Macrons comment today about an EU border police force. German insiders today saying that a force is already being put into place to support the Irish in the event of a hard Brexit, training started some time ago. That way the Irish government wont be breaking the GF agreement...it will be the EU dealing with the UK and their moaning and groaning.

Harry Palmr

Channel 4 news now - interesting piece which will apparently prove Russian interference in Brexit. Arron Banks might want to consult a lawyer.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Would you have a link? My curiosity has been piqued.

I'm trying to remember the blog's name. The guy posted anonymously and said he couldn't be scientific in his numbers but he felt the Leave voters at the plant must have been in and around 50%.

It shows just how many people were sucked in by Vote Leave propaganda, even workers with a huge amount to lose. They bought into the idea of an effortless exit from the EU that would go as smoothly as anything and even result in people being better off and with more money in their pocket.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm trying to remember the blog's name. The guy posted anonymously and said he couldn't be scientific in his numbers but he felt the Leave voters at the plant must have been in and around 50%.

It shows just how many people were sucked in by Vote Leave propaganda, even workers with a huge amount to lose. They bought into the idea of an effortless exit from the EU that would go as smoothly as anything and even result in people being better off and with more money in their pocket.

Was the same at the German car plant in Wales. Cameras interviewing workers after it was announced it was going to close and no one was blaming Brexit. They said that it was a sign of the global car industry and that it had been on the cards for a long time. That area voted to leave also.

The company hat cited Brexit as a partial cause in their statement announcing the closure.

An Ciarraioch

Milton Friedman would be in his element - plan to slash up to 90% of tariffs in a no-deal Brexit:

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-government-to-slash-up-to-90-of-trade-tariffs-if-uk-leaves-eu-with-no-deal-11656093

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Milton Friedman would be in his element - plan to slash up to 90% of tariffs in a no-deal Brexit:

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-government-to-slash-up-to-90-of-trade-tariffs-if-uk-leaves-eu-with-no-deal-11656093

China and India are saying decades of the Rosary that this might happen.

Capt'n Midnight

The BMW are getting ready to decimate the UK car industry.

It's simple economics.

UK parts, like engines, will no longer be considered EU parts when the UK leaves. This will push the total level in some cars below the threshold of around 55-60% required in many international trade agreements.

So moving engine production from the UK to Austria would solve issues issues within the EU 27 and the 70 other countries that the EU has trade deals with.

And since the UK are going low tariffs on imported parts, it's not even an issue for UK domestic production.



It's an issue for UK exporters though as less cars will meet the international deal threshold for local parts.

Roanmore

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1102888826857414656

IDS telling porkies again, amazing how they never get pulled on it.