Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Roanmore wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1102888826857414656

IDS telling porkies again, amazing how they never get pulled on it.

Was that interview done in recent days?

Akrasia

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Channel 4 news now - interesting piece which will apparently prove Russian interference in Brexit. Arron Banks might want to consult a lawyer.

Here's the Channel 4 report from today

Very serious allegations about Banks which directly contradict his statements saying that he had no intention of pursing deals with Russian gold or diamond interests in the lead up to the referendum, but C4 have seen emails discussing multiple meetings Banks had with Russians who are known to be very closely linked to the Kremlin.

It could be impossible to prove, but when Bank's own statements on the matter are shown to be false, then the conclusions have to be that he is hiding something.

Roanmore

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Was that interview done in recent days?

I presume so, Bloomberg have put it up on today's page, timed 3.25pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/u-k-in-last-ditch-talks-to-fix-divorce-deal-brexit-update

Professor Moriarty

Roanmore wrote: »

I presume so, Bloomberg have put it up on today's page, timed 3.25pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/u-k-in-last-ditch-talks-to-fix-divorce-deal-brexit-update

Thanks. He's lying though his teeth. Of course the interviewer was either clueless or an American supporter of Brexit as it undermines the EU. Or both perhaps. Either way, IDS was allowed to lie unchallenged. From your link:

Pro-Brexit Conservative Iain Duncan Smith said in a Bloomberg television interview that the "vast majority" of Britons want to get on with leaving the bloc, and that a "majority are happy" to leave with no deal. His comments prompted criticism on Twitter in the increasingly febrile atmosphere of British politics.

While polls paint a mixed picture, most show that Remain vs Leave is still tight, and support for a no-deal exit is low. A YouGov poll in January put support for no-deal at 28 percent, a result that’s in line with other surveys.

Bloomberg making the point that he's a liar. Except for their useless interviewer.

Laois_Man

Massive cuts on tarrifs on imports into the UK in the event of a hard Exit - would also have to be with the EU.


https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-government-to-slash-up-to-90-of-trade-tariffs-if-uk-leaves-eu-with-no-deal-11656093

Surely this is Teresa May applying pressure - there's no way they'd do this!

Capt'n Midnight

Laois_Man wrote: »

Massive cuts on tarrifs on imports into the UK in the event of a hard Exit - would also have to be with the EU.

Surely this is Teresa May applying pressure - there's no way they'd do this!

Unless it's part of a FTA they'd have to offer the same low, low tariffs to anyone and everyone. ( unless they want to go down the road of taking advantage of how long it takes for WTO rulings , but that's trading a once off short term gain for long term pain that will cost them in the long run )

So the EU could export stuff to the UK while keeping tariffs to block UK imports and protect EU industries. Stuff like cars.

reslfj

prawnsambo wrote: »

.....
But since all of those are manufactured in the majority for export markets (80% - of which 40% to EU), they will undoubtedly fall foul of the rules of origin, which stipulate that 60% of the product must be made locally in order to avoid much higher tariffs. The average for UK built cars is 44%.

1.
I think country of origin for cars is more like 55%

2.
British produced components is produced from non-UK parts. The UK added value of cars is often down to just 25% - a far cry from the 55% needed.
/source UK auto industry.

Lars

briany

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Very interesting was Macrons comment today about an EU border police force. German insiders today saying that a force is already being put into place to support the Irish in the event of a hard Brexit, training started some time ago. That way the Irish government wont be breaking the GF agreement...it will be the EU dealing with the UK and their moaning and groaning.

I wonder would this consist of specialists from around the EU, or native Irish with jackets that say "EU BORDER POLICE"?

And like anyone else, EU officials are going to have a hell of a time effectively policing the border.

Would Irish-side border infrastructure and personnel become a target for dissidents?

Leonard Hofstadter

Sure if there's no tariffs, then what's the point in doing free trade agreements with the UK? Isn't that their whole negotiating leverage gone, or am I missing something?

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

1.
I think country of origin for cars is more like 55%

2.
British produced components is produced from non-UK parts. The UK added value of cars is often down to just 25% - a far cry from the 55% needed.
/source UK auto industry.

Lars

55% - 60% depending on the FTA involved.

The problem is that each cut in output means it's harder for the UK parts companies. The origin rules will also affects them exporting to the EU. Double whammy.

Fine for a while, but there's a tipping point where it's no longer viable to assemble cars in the UK using enough local parts to qualify for tariff free access to third countries.

80% of UK car production is exported. Without UK parts companies there is no UK car export industry.

Kermit.de.frog

briany wrote: »

I wonder would this consist of specialists from around the EU, or native Irish with jackets that say "EU BORDER POLICE"?

And like anyone else, EU officials are going to have a hell of a time effectively policing the border.

Would Irish-side border infrastructure and personnel become a target for dissidents?

There are no "EU border police". It's up to the country with the border to police the border with it's own officials/police/infrastructure.

Ireland will have to pay and police a border somewhere.

johnnyskeleton

Roanmore wrote: »

IDS telling porkies again, amazing how they never get pulled on it.

He also said that what we have in the EU is a bunch of people who you'd think would want to do a deal with us, but instead go around insulting us and making threats, so no wonder we have hardened our stance.

Maybe he was just confusing the EU with with Westminster Parliament.

Capt'n Midnight

What's happening in the car industry is happening in the rest of manufacturing. And activity is temporally up because of stockpiling.

This means the UK may become more dependent on the services sector that's being cut off from it's biggest market.


Manufacturing job losses 'at six-year high'

The IHS Markit/CIPS survey found that of those companies who offered a reason for the build-up of stocks, 70% attributed it to Brexit.
...
"The sector's sickness was also visible in employment levels with the steepest job losses in six years and with business optimism at its lowest levels since 2012, firms are unlikely to start hiring any time soon."

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

55% - 60% depending on the FTA involved.

The problem is that each cut in output means it's harder for the UK parts companies. The origin rules will also affects them exporting to the EU. Double whammy.
....
Without UK parts companies there is no UK car export industry.

Without a trade deal that allow EU parts to be counted as "country of origin" there is no hope for any UK car export, except with full MFN WTO tariffs (EU MFN for cars 10%).


Lars

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/AilbheConneely/status/1102993625816932353

Regardless of the origin of applications, the 20% continual rise has been consistent since Brexit.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There are no "EU border police". It's up to the country with the border to police the border with it's own officials/police/infrastructure.

Ireland will have to pay and police a border somewhere.

Thats incorrect while Ireland isnt in shengen there is an EU agency responsible for managing the shengen borders

A Dub in Glasgo

Away from Westminster today, this happened. Non-binding just like the referendum result

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1102995136982761474

Irish Praetorian

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Sure if there's no tariffs, then what's the point in doing free trade agreements with the UK? Isn't that their whole negotiating leverage gone, or am I missing something?

Tariffs on goods aren't the only way to restrict trade, and in fact, when most developed economies are dominated by their tertiary (or services) sector, they may not even be the most significant. There are other non-tariff limitations on providing services between two countries, a simple example might be lawyers, where qualification and jurisdiction in one country does not correlate with any other - you might still need to take a bar exams or similar.

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/AilbheConneely/status/1102993625816932353

Regardless of the origin of applications, the 20% continual rise has been consistent since Brexit.

I heard that report on the radio earlier. I think roughly 7,000 last year and 10,000 this year were from NI in those figures. You'd have to assume that the vast majority were from the UK mainland.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There are no "EU border police". It's up to the country with the border to police the border with it's own officials/police/infrastructure.

Ireland will have to pay and police a border somewhere.

You may have missed this which is where the conversation started:

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Very interesting was Macrons comment today about an EU border police force. German insiders today saying that a force is already being put into place to support the Irish in the event of a hard Brexit, training started some time ago. That way the Irish government wont be breaking the GF agreement...it will be the EU dealing with the UK and their moaning and groaning.

Capt'n Midnight

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Tariffs on goods aren't the only way to restrict trade,

Car industry would have typical margins of 4%. 2% at the low end, 6% is a goal to aim for.


Tariffs of 4-5% on imported parts and 10% on exported cars is going to hurt , a lot. Especially if you are making generic boxes.

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There are no "EU border police". It's up to the country with the border to police the border with it's own officials/police/infrastructure.

Ireland will have to pay and police a border somewhere.

VinLieger wrote: »

Thats incorrect while Ireland isnt in shengen there is an EU agency responsible for managing the shengen borders

Nope. There's no specialist agency; Schengen policy is dealt with by the Council and the Commission just like any other EU policy. And, like other EU policies, the rules are actually implemented by the member states. If Ireland were to join Schengen Irish ports, airports and borders would be policed by the guards and the Revenue, exactly as they are now. All that would change is that they would be implementing the Schengen visa/migration policy, not the current Irish visa/migration policy.

murphaph

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. There's no specialist agency; Schengen policy is dealt with by the Council and the Commission just like any other EU policy. And, like other EU policies, the rules are actually implemented by the member states. If Ireland were to join Schengen Irish ports, airports and borders would be policed by the guards and the Revenue, exactly as they are now. All that would change is that they would be implementing the Schengen visa/migration policy, not the current Irish visa/migration policy.

Indeed. We were stopped entering Sweden by road in August as they are temporarily suspending Schengen right now.

Peregrinus

murphaph wrote: »

Indeed. We were stopped entering Sweden by road in August as they are temporarily suspending Schengen right now.

Schengen rules allow a state to impose temporary border controls for a short period in response to a serious threat to public policy or internal security. Sweden has had a rolling series of temporary controls for a couple of years now, in response to the European migrant crisis. The current control notice expires on 11 May, but may be renewed for another three months.

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. There's no specialist agency; Schengen policy is dealt with by the Council and the Commission just like any other EU policy. And, like other EU policies, the rules are actually implemented by the member states. If Ireland were to join Schengen Irish ports, airports and borders would be policed by the guards and the Revenue, exactly as they are now. All that would change is that they would be implementing the Schengen visa/migration policy, not the current Irish visa/migration policy.

They are called Frontex and they work with Shengen members to organise border control of the Shengen area.

Im not saying they will be used in Irelands case as because i already said we arent in shengen, just pointing out the original claim that there is no EU border agency is factually incorrect.

Peregrinus

VinLieger wrote: »

They are called Frontex and they work with Shengen members to organise border control of the Shengen area.

Im not saying they will be used in Irelands case as because i already said we arent in shengen, just pointing out the original claim that there is no EU border agency is factually incorrect.

On checking, you're quite right.

However SFAIK Frontex doesn't have its own front-line operatives; there isn't an EU border force that exists independently of, and alongside, the border control agencies of the Member States. Rather the Member States commit to making staff and resources available to Frontex operations as the occasions requires. Frontex is a co-ordinating and planning agency, mainly. It lacks the resources on the ground to conduct its own operations. For that, it relies on the European Border and Coast Guard, which is a fancy term for the combined border control agencies and coast guard services of the member states.

So, for example, the Irish naval service's activities in the Mediterranean, dealing with migrants from North Africa, are part of a Frontex operation.

So, could we have, say, Dutch border operatives posted to Ireland to assist in controlling the EU's external border with the UK? Potentially, yes, at any rate if Ireland joined Schengen. But they wouldn't be doing that instead of the Irish officials; they'd be doing it alongside and in support of the Irish officials, and probably on an interim basis while a crisis passed, or while the Irish agencies geared up in terms of staff and resources to meet the long-term need.

murphaph

Realistically of course as long as Ireland shares a land border with Northern Ireland, there will be no chance of joining Schengen as policing the external Schengen frontier is politically impossible, even if controls are required for goods. there's just no way Ireland would ask Irish citizens resident in NI to show a passport to enter the state. Even post a hypothetical UI it's still a political issue because the large unionist minority will feel very hard done by if the CTA was ended unilaterally by Ireland and practically I suspect there are just as many passengers flying GB-Ireland as EU26-Ireland.

Peregrinus

murphaph wrote: »

Realistically of course as long as Ireland shares a land border with Northern Ireland, there will be no chance of joining Schengen as policing the external Schengen frontier is politically impossible, even if controls are required for goods. there's just no way Ireland would ask Irish citizens resident in NI to show a passport to enter the state. Even post a hypothetical UI it's still a political issue because the large unionist minority will feel very hard done by if the CTA was ended unilaterally by Ireland and practically I suspect there are just as many passengers flying GB-Ireland as EU26-Ireland.

I agree. Ireland and the UK are not in Schengen largely because they have, and have long had, their own mini-Schengen which fits their circumstances rather better than Schengen does. I don't think Brexit changes this judgment in any way. I don't expect the EU to press us to join Schengen, and I certainly don't see us pursuing that ourselves, at the cost of the CTA with the UK.

We might join Schengen if the UK were to unilaterally abrogate the CTA, but tat doesn't look likely to happen.

What we might see, though, is the remit of Frontex and the European Border and Coast Guard extended to embrace all EU member states, and not just the Schengen countries. It seems a no-brainer that Frontex's remit should cover the whole of the EU's external border and, post-Brexit, for the first time a part of the EU's external border will be in a member state which is neither a member of Schengen, nor moving towards Schengen membership.

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

What we might see, though, is the remit of Frontex and the European Border and Coast Guard extended to embrace all EU member states, and not just the Schengen countries. It seems a no-brainer that Frontex's remit should cover the whole of the EU's external border and, post-Brexit, for the first time a part of the EU's external border will be in a member state which is neither a member of Schengen, nor moving towards Schengen membership.

I think this makes a lot of sense going off Macrons proposals which to me all sounded quite sensible. I just hope they get actioned in some way.

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

Realistically of course as long as Ireland shares a land border with Northern Ireland, there will be no chance of joining Schengen as policing the external Schengen frontier is politically impossible, even if controls are required for goods. there's just no way Ireland would ask Irish citizens resident in NI to show a passport to enter the state. Even post a hypothetical UI it's still a political issue because the large unionist minority will feel very hard done by if the CTA was ended unilaterally by Ireland and practically I suspect there are just as many passengers flying GB-Ireland as EU26-Ireland.

Happens at Dublin Airport for every passenger entering the country, or even those coming from Shannon. Of course they could and would.