Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

prawnsambo wrote: »

Are you making up these headlines and posting them in large font size in a clickbaity way? Because the headline in that Bloomberg article bears no relationship to what you posted above.

Bloomberg changed the story.

What I posted, and was reported on Bloomberg, is in fact accurate as Reuters reports

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/uk-to-set-up-brexit-advisory-groups-to-find-alternative-arrangements-for-irish-border-idUSKCN1QN2UO

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bloomberg changed the story.

What I posted, and was reported on Bloomberg, is in fact accurate as Reuters reports

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/uk-to-set-up-brexit-advisory-groups-to-find-alternative-arrangements-for-irish-border-idUSKCN1QN2UO

But your link had "eu-said-to-be-pessimistic-that-brexit-breakthrough-in-reach" in it.

Those links are generated automatically from the article title.

Peregrinus

Bloomberg does in fact have the story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/may-outlines-brexit-plan-to-avoid-hard-border-with-ireland. It has the headline that Kermit said it had.

I think Kermit inadvertantly pasted the wrong url in when setting up his dynamic link, so it's linking to the wrong Bloomberg story.

As I read it, the right Bloomberg story, the one Kermit meant to link to, implies that May has accepted that there's not going to be any agreement with the EU on an alternative to the backstop, either in the WA or in the political declaration, and her strategy is now to persade the Commons to approve the WA as it stands on the grounds that the provisions it already has about alternative arrangements can be used to avert the application of the backstop, because these new technical groups will infallibly come up with a whiz-bang technical solution for keeping the border open that will supersede the backstop.

Akrasia

She has literally wasted 5 months of valuable time and countless millions of Euros in British and EU members money from the date the Withdrawal agreement was published on 15/11/18. And worse, the backstop remains unchanged since December 2017, 15 months ago.

She has lied to literally everyone, telling everyone what they wanted to hear but in such a hamfisted way that everyone knows that they're being lied to

Whats her strategy? To waste another 3 months, billions more Euros and hundreds of thousands of jobs before forcing the HOC to sign the exact same withdrawal agreement at the barrel of a gun or see them leap over the edge of a cliff in exacerbated defiance of her stubborn refusal to honestly engage with any of the stakeholders.

That is the price of keeping the Tory party together that she is foisting on the continent of Europe.

Peregrinus

Akrasia wrote: »

She has literally wasted 5 months of valuable time and countless millions of Euros in British and EU members money from the date the Withdrawal agreement was published on 15/11/18. And worse, the backstop remains unchanged since December 2017, 15 months ago.

Nitpick; the backstop has changed since December 2017. From being an NI-only arrangement, parts of it (including, signficantly, the customs union aspect) have expanded to being all-UK. That was a UK demand, and getting it was a big UK victory but, inexplicably, May has allowed the ultras to spin it as a defeat for the UK

Akrasia wrote: »

She has lied to literally everyone, telling everyone what they wanted to hear but in such a hamfisted way that everyone knows that they're being lied to

Whats her strategy? To waste another 3 months, billions more Euros and hundreds of thousands of jobs before forcing the HOC to sign the exact same withdrawal agreement at the barrel of a gun or see them leap over the edge of a cliff in exacerbated defiance of her stubborn refusal to honestly engage with any of the stakeholders.

That is the price of keeping the Tory party together that she is foisting on the continent of Europe.

As a strategy for keeping the Tory party together, it hasn't exactly been a resounding success. The party is more deeply divided, and more openly divided, than at any time in living memory.

As a strategy for keeping May in Downing Street, though it has worked suprisingly well (so far, at any rate). And, as a strategy for getting Brexit on the terms of May's deal, it could still work.

Sam Russell

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The Secretary of State Karen Bradley's incredible comments today that murders committed by security forces during the Troubles were 'not crimes' to me has the DUP's fingerprints all over it.

There seems to be a very strong push right now in Westminster to try and absolve British soldiers of any responsibility for what happened during the conflict. I don't think the timing of this is coincidental. I think the DUP will make this front and centre of any election campaign they have to fight in the coming years, counting on their base being placated by this even if the economy takes a bad turn. Sadly, I think they're likely to be right that their core supporters will lap this up.

What is appalling is she is now applying the 'the Nuremberg' defence - just following orders, and we know how that worked out for the Nazi generals.

A (small) number of British soldiers have been convicted of murder in NI, but never actually served their sentences before returning to their regiments. Clearly the British Army does not respect the rule of law - but then we knew that anyway. So now it is Gov policy.

Leroy42

once could argue that it really was the only strategy available. There was never going to be a consensus. Cross party would never work, as any converts she did get would be cancelled by defectors to the other side.

The real issue, and its not solely down to TM, is that the HoC is deeply divided on this issue. Not only divided on the issue itself, but past that starting point there are serious divisions on how to go forward.

Corbyn has put GE front and centre, that only a calling of a GE would see him getting involved. She then had the ERG and the likes of Johnson, Davis, Raab etc within her own party to content with.

So the delay and running down the clock was really the only option left. She is trying to drag them into the agreement, and agreement they are only ever going to agree to with the noose around their necks.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

What is appalling is she is now applying the 'the Nuremberg' defence - just following orders, and we know how that worked out for the Nazi generals.

A (small) number of British soldiers have been convicted of murder in NI, but never actually served their sentences before returning to their regiments. Clearly the British Army does not respect the rule of law - but then we knew that anyway. So now it is Gov policy.

The cynic in me wonders if elements within the British Gov are now going to try and collapse the GFA through words like these. Sow as much division and rancour as it can in hope of a destabilising reaction. I don't think a SOS would have either, said this pre Brexit or be allowed to stay in office after saying it and more or less doubling down on it.

Sinister times.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The cynic in me wonders if elements within the British Gov are now going to try and collapse the GFA through words like these. Sow as much division and rancour as it can in hope of a destabilising reaction. I don't think a SOS would have either, said this pre Brexit or be allowed to stay in office after saying it and more or less doubling down on it.

Sinister times.

Personally i think Bradley is just an idiot. I don't believe she understands the magnitude of what she originally said or the fact that she then used the Nuremburg defence to try and clear things up.

lawred2

VinLieger wrote: »

Personally i think Bradley is just an idiot. I don't believe she understands the magnitude of what she originally said or the fact that she then used the Nuremburg defence to try and clear things up.

She may be an idiot but idiots can be useful. Especially when used as a puppet.

VinLieger

lawred2 wrote: »

She may be an idiot but idiots can be useful. Especially when used as a puppet.

Indeed i don't think someones is in her ear telling her what to say but i think there are people willing to take advantage of what shes saying

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

Personally i think Bradley is just an idiot. I don't believe she understands the magnitude of what she originally said or the fact that she then used the Nuremburg defence to try and clear things up.

Whether it's stupidity or cynical politicking, her credibility within in the Nationalist community is gone. I would expect all Nationalist politicians to boycott any meetings convened by her. Otherwise, they can never look the relatives of British Army murder victims in the eye again.

Enzokk

I do wonder what is happening in Brussels right now. The tweets we are seeing is fascinating but I take it with a pinch of salt seeing as we are supposed to be in the tunnel once more. But if some of these tweets are true it provides an interesting view of Theresa May and her absolute incompetence she has displayed and continues to. I mean you could argue that she was handed an impossible task with Brexit, that doesn't explain why she thought Chris Grayling is in any way fit to be in charge of the morning coffee run, never mind a department (not just once either), or how she thinks Karen Bradley should be anywhere near anything of importance either. You could say this is her plan, I think that she is on the same level as Grayling and Bradley, people who are way out of their comfort zone and shouldn't be anywhere near where they currently find themselves.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1103567553664876546

Igotadose

Enzokk wrote: »

But if some of these tweets are true it provides an interesting view of Theresa May and her absolute incompetence she has displayed and continues to. I mean you could argue that she was handed an impossible task with Brexit, that doesn't explain why she thought Chris Grayling is in any way fit to be in charge of the morning coffee run, never mind a department (not just once either), or how she thinks Karen Bradley should be anywhere near anything of importance either.

Because this is what she's got to work with - the likes of Raab, Grayling, Davis, et al. I remember (US) high school 30+ years ago with one teacher decrying the fact that the bright people don't go into politics anymore. And, that recent quote of Michelle Obama's rings true yet again - CEO's and board members aren't all that good. Neither are politicians, not here in Ireland (points at the Healy-Rae's as my local laughably corrupt and dumb politicos) nor anywhere else. It's not like if magically overnight if May's government and cabinet were replaced with Corbyn and his cronies that we'd be singing their praises, far from it.

Politicians go into it for whatever reasons, but they succeed based on how they appear to the media and to a lesser extent what they actually do.

swampgas

Enzokk wrote: »

But if some of these tweets are true it provides an interesting view of Theresa May and her absolute incompetence she has displayed and continues to. I mean you could argue that she was handed an impossible task with Brexit, that doesn't explain why she thought Chris Grayling is in any way fit to be in charge of the morning coffee run, never mind a department (not just once either), or how she thinks Karen Bradley should be anywhere near anything of importance either.

Not only is she incompetent, she knows she is.

I've seen terrible managers in the private sector who were so deeply insecure that they were afraid to promote anyone obviously talented or capable in case that person became a threat to their position.

Theresa May has promoted obvious incompetents into senior roles, possibly because she does not feel threatened by them.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

I do wonder what is happening in Brussels right now. The tweets we are seeing is fascinating but I take it with a pinch of salt seeing as we are supposed to be in the tunnel once more. But if some of these tweets are true it provides an interesting view of Theresa May and her absolute incompetence she has displayed and continues to. I mean you could argue that she was handed an impossible task with Brexit, that doesn't explain why she thought Chris Grayling is in any way fit to be in charge of the morning coffee run, never mind a department (not just once either), or how she thinks Karen Bradley should be anywhere near anything of importance either. You could say this is her plan, I think that she is on the same level as Grayling and Bradley, people who are way out of their comfort zone and shouldn't be anywhere near where they currently find themselves.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1103567553664876546

Apparently Grayling has the support of TM because he was one of the first to support her in her bid to become PM. If not the actual first. There's a number of other reasons, but they all boil down to loyalty. Then there's how the party is split and how that works out in terms (again) of her support. It's still the same inward looking nonsense that's bedevilled the government since it took power. Karen Bradley was junior minister in the Home Office under Theresa May and got the Ministry for fun job in TM's first cabinet.

demfad

Bradley's comments were not accidental and this is part of a pattern.
(see Johnson below). Clear signalling of a return of authoritarian attitudes to NI.

Is the goal to completely undermine the trust that supports the GFA? To provoke violence to further weaken it?
These actions make these outcomes far more likely.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1102318578047565829

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

Bradley's comments were not accidental and this is part of a pattern.

I'm sure the Irish Govt are set to downplay these attempts to provoke, the last thing we need at this point in Brexit negotiations is a giant diplomatic fight about Bloody Sunday.

lawred2

demfad wrote: »

Bradley's comments were not accidental and this is part of a pattern.
(see Johnson below). Clear signalling of a return of authoritarian attitudes to NI.

Is the goal to completely undermine the trust that supports the GFA? To provoke violence to further weaken it?
These actions make these outcomes far more likely.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1102318578047565829

the picture with that article is mind boggling

the 'great work' of the armed forces in holding unarmed people at gunpoint against a wall

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'm sure the Irish Govt are set to downplay these attempts to provoke, the last thing we need at this point in Brexit negotiations is a giant diplomatic fight about Bloody Sunday.

The correct thing to is not respond. Coveney having a quiet word is best from an Irish Government point of view.

But this is a blatant deliberate provocation to the Nationalist community in NI by the British Government. Both sides know this. This is extreme gaslighting and could be the start of "othering" NI nationalists (again).

ancapailldorcha

The House of Lords has just inflicted a defeat on the government by voting in favor of the UK staying in a customs union with the EU. From the Independent:

Theresa May faces a fresh headache over her Brexit strategy after peers inflicted a defeat on the government in favour of keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU.

The House of Lords supported a cross-party bid to keep Britain in a tariff-free trade bloc with Brussels, which means the legislation will bounce back to the Commons for approval.

Supporters of the Labour-led amendment to the Trade Bill argued MPs should have the opportunity to "think again" on the issue.

It makes sense to me. The customs union is the only solution, short of revoking Article 50 to the Northern Irish border problem. It also solves what is tragically being considered a side issue, that of the precipice being stared down by UK-based manufacturers of losing their JIT supply chains.

Havockk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The House of Lords has just inflicted a defeat on the government by voting in favor of the UK staying in a customs union with the EU. From the Independent:



It makes sense to me. The customs union is the only solution, short of revoking Article 50 to the Northern Irish border problem. It also solves what is tragically being considered a side issue, that of the precipice being stared down by UK-based manufacturers of losing their JIT supply chains.

So the solution Corbyn was pushing all along?

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

So the solution Corbyn was pushing all along?

Yep. Corbyn always specified "A customs union" as opposed to "THE customs union". Looks like the upper house agrees.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The House of Lords has just inflicted a defeat on the government by voting in favor of the UK staying in a customs union with the EU. From the Independent:



It makes sense to me. The customs union is the only solution, short of revoking Article 50 to the Northern Irish border problem. It also solves what is tragically being considered a side issue, that of the precipice being stared down by UK-based manufacturers of losing their JIT supply chains.

The Customs Union is only part of the picture for JIT supply chains. The SM is also needed so that trucks roll off the ferries with only the traffic lights delaying them. Without SM integration, there are quite a few checks, and just look to see what happens at the Turkish border, where delays can be measured in days.

Revoking Art 50 is the only solution to this madness.

jmayo

prawnsambo wrote: »

There was a good deal less international trade back then (I think the traffic through Dover has quadrupled). The single market made it a lot easier for specialist manufacturers to grow and provide components for other manufacturers and that's why you now have British made Nissans that have parts coming from all over Europe that go together to make the final end product.

Not alone Nissan, parts for the Minis (something like over 60%) are imported into UK from all over Europe.

There is also a huge British automotive parts industry that will be hit if the manufacturers leave.

But since all of those are manufactured in the majority for export markets (80% - of which 40% to EU), they will undoubtedly fall foul of the rules of origin, which stipulate that 60% of the product must be made locally in order to avoid much higher tariffs. The average for UK built cars is 44%.

Not quite as high as 60% I think, but 55%.

This is also major reason that they can't rewrite EU trade agreements with likes of Canada, Japan and slap a UK label on them.

Also EU manufacturers cannot export the cars manufactured in UK as part of these trade agreements.
This also has knock on consequence that cars manufactured in Slovakia, Germany, Spain, France cannot have components from UK.

Not alone are there 40 odd vehicle manufacturers in the UK, but there are 3,000 companies involved in the automotive industry.
You have the likes of Unipart, Lucas, GKN Driveline, Caterpillar (Perkins) which are major players in some areas.

The head of Jaguar/Land Rover spelt out how the company could lose over a billion in revenue due to hard Brexit and as good as said they would have to review operations.

All that is left of the once mighty British tractor industry is home owned JCB and the old Ford, now New Holland, plant in Basildon which employs a 1,000.
It is only an assembly plant and the engines are shipped in from Fiat in Italy.
They will probably just shift production to one of it's plants in either Austria or Italy.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Except that doesn't show if the Nissan employees themselves or those in dependent sectors voted remain or leave.

It's hard to defend people who are losing their jobs and still thinking Leave is the way to go but anyone else deserves sympathy IMO.

Actually caught part of radio interview of Nissan production supervisor who claimed he wanted Brexit, voted for it and knows Nissan will probably go so he is lining up job in Europe.
He wants Britain to suffer so that it will rejoin EU down the road and become a major player. He sees it as the necessary wake up call for Britain.

Every now and then you get some business man interviewed that voted leave and wants to still leave even though they know it will make things economically tougher.
They of course often reference the war or some such as to how the plucky Brits will win out in the end.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Everyone is aware that there is need for reform and streamlining of the EU - the discussion between UK/EU at this stage should be moving back to significant reform of the EU and UK revoking Article 50.

Professor Moriarty

jmayo wrote: »

Not quite as high as 60% I think, but 55%.

This is also major reason that they can't rewrite EU trade agreements with likes of Canada, Japan and slap a UK label on them.

Also EU manufacturers cannot export the cars manufactured in UK as part of these trade agreements.
This also has knock on consequence that cars manufactured in Slovakia, Germany, Spain, France cannot have components from UK.

Not alone are there 40 odd vehicle manufacturers in the UK, but there are 3,000 companies involved in the automotive industry.
You have the likes of Unipart, Lucas, GKN Driveline, Caterpillar (Perkins) which are major players in some areas.

The head of Jaguar/Land Rover spelt out how the company could lose over a billion in revenue due to hard Brexit and as good as said they would have to review operations.

All that is left of the once mighty British tractor industry is home owned JCB and the old Ford, now New Holland, plant in Basildon which employs a 1,000.
It is only an assembly plant and the engines are shipped in from Fiat in Italy.
They will probably just shift production to one of it's plants in either Austria or Italy.



Actually caught part of radio interview of Nissan production supervisor who claimed he wanted Brexit, voted for it and knows Nissan will probably go so he is lining up job in Europe.
He wants Britain to suffer so that it will rejoin EU down the road and become a major player. He sees it as the necessary wake up call for Britain.

Every now and then you get some business man interviewed that voted leave and wants to still leave even though they know it will make things economically tougher.
They of course often reference the war or some such as to how the plucky Brits will win out in the end.

If I may: "Every now and then you get some business man interviewed that voted leave and wants to still leave even though they know it will make things economically tougher"...for other people.

murphaph

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Everyone is aware that there is need for reform and streamlining of the EU - the discussion between UK/EU at this stage should be moving back to significant reform of the EU and UK revoking Article 50.

Meh. We know the EU needs some work but it's pretty damn good. It is envied in many parts of the world! If you allow member states to threaten leaving every time they want the EU to move in a particular direction, the whole thing will unravel. It has to be a case of cooperation, not threats of walking out.

Seth Brundle

Two tweets that I came across today which I found interesting.

Firstly, James O'Brien sends out this reminder of what it is that the brits are objecting to...

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1103565546535174144

Separately, this is a positive step by the EP...

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1103576792454086656

lawred2

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Everyone is aware that there is need for reform and streamlining of the EU - the discussion between UK/EU at this stage should be moving back to significant reform of the EU and UK revoking Article 50.

is there?

everyone is aware?

says who? you?

what reform are you referring to specifically?

what would you like streamlined?

because that just reads like a tabloid editorial really..