Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is he offering changes to the WA in return for something?


The WA is suppose to be closed.

Clearly not. It's a rhetorical question. The UK want changes, his point is that they aren't offering anything for the changes they want.

It's just another way of saying she's wasting her time.

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

More Mark Francois on Politics Live...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1103998192859799552

She made the mistake that nearly all of them do, she moved onto a new area even before getting an answer to the first. She never let him, and he was quite happy, explain why the MP's get multiple votes but the people get one shot.

Instead she threw out the line about lies etc, which is far too easy for these guys to simply talk around.

VinLieger

Seth Brundle wrote: »

More Mark Francois on Politics Live...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1103998192859799552



Incidentally, he is ignoring his ERG compadre JRM who supported a second referendum.

Ohh god reading the twitter replies makes my brain hurt



"Me my family and friends wasn’t motivated to vote leave because of lies we was motivated to leave a super state project we was never asked to join"


"I didn't get to vote in the 70's - I've had to wait over 40 years to get my say so "back of queue" new voters and come back when you've had 40 year plus of a system you don't support."

gooch2k9

VinLieger wrote: »

Ohh god reading the twitter replies makes my brain hurt



"Me my family and friends wasn’t motivated to vote leave because of lies we was motivated to leave a super state project we was never asked to join"


"I didn't get to vote in the 70's - I've had to wait over 40 years to get my say so "back of queue" new voters and come back when you've had 40 year plus of a system you don't support."

More than a few here in NI would have similar sentiments.

josip

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/08/end-of-the-booze-cruise-calais-wine-stores-run-dry-amid-pre-brexit-stockpiling


I wonder does the "they need us more than we need them " argument apply to the wine and alcohol warehouses on the French side of the channel.
Although individual outlets on the French side will close, there are a lot of people in the UK reliant on their shopping trips south.
Especially retirees, the majority of whom voted to leave.
Sobering times ahead for them.
I just can't fathom how any semi-intelligent nation of people could do this to themselves, regardless of what they've been spun in the media.

Inquitus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

More Mark Francois on Politics Live...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1103998192859799552



Incidentally, he is ignoring his ERG compadre JRM who supported a second referendum.

Grace just caught herself from saying Fecking Lies in the nick of time there!

LeinsterDub

The EU are not happy with May's Pallet Speech

Lots of similar on twitter

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1104040377051504641

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The EU are not happy with May's Pallet Speech

Lots of similar on twitter

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1104040377051504641

https://twitter.com/Colin00007/status/1104041737742356480

The EU is going to blame the EU :pac:

Seth Brundle

...another one from Katya...

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1104033604185804800

black forest

If it wouldn’t be the back stop the hard line brexiteers would find something else. TM knows this exactly and knows as well that the EU can and will not get rid of it. All the past negotiations have shown that one can not trust the UK. Katy Hayward shows once more why the back stop is not popular.

https://twitter.com/hayward_katy/status/1104004251649564675?s=21

Or directly here:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-true-cause-of-our-backstop-obsession

The obsession with the backstop can be understood because it is the clearest iteration we have had to date of the difficult choices and challenges facing the UK on exiting the EU. Such dilemmas all centre on what it means to “take back control” of national borders.

The Protocol has been written up in some detail precisely because the UK and EU need to be sure how to handle this most sensitive of borders if (and this is a big “if”) the relationship between the UK and EU becomes much more distant or even more frosty in future. Or, more likely, if they are simply bogged down in the detail of negotiating the future trade agreement and the alarm clock—that the UK insisted on setting for a short time hence—starts ringing. We could run up against our self-imposed deadline for the pursuit of other options.

People don’t like the backstop for different reasons, and this reflects the various dimensions of border control. Some don’t like the whole UK being in a customs territory with the EU as a means of avoiding customs controls. Some don’t like the differentiated arrangements for Northern Ireland as a means of avoiding regulatory barriers across the Irish border. Many don’t like the fact that the backstop itself has no expiry date, so as to ensure it is there as a safety net for unforeseen events. Others do not like the condition that both parties have to agree for it to be discontinued, in order to ensure orderly and cooperative border management.

The truth is that implementing the backstop would be uncomfortable. If being part of it is a darn nuisance, then the hope would be that this concentrates minds on trying to come up with more stable alternative arrangements. (And let me note here that those “alternative arrangements” will not be technological solutions per se. Technology is not an “arrangement” in itself but a means of improving the efficient implementation of laws and policies).

The back stop is a hugh compromise from the EU and not only a single sided thing with negatives for the UK alone. There are quite a bit of negative vibes about that on the EU side as well.

And it entails compromise of the single market. For it breaks up the four freedoms: effectively allowing free movement of goods to and from Northern Ireland but not the other three. It also means that Northern Ireland would be outside the EU but treated as if it were part of the single market in some areas, including agriculture—a privilege that even the non-EU members of the European Economic Area do not have. This is a huge ask of the EU, which is so protective of its single market and so suspicious (with no small cause) of British agri-food, especially meat products.

I really like these papers, reports and short articles from Katy Hayward. Exact analysis and precisely on the point.

Hurrache

Barnier's thread on what he briefed the ambassadors about this afternoon. So the UK were offered an option to unilaterally exit the single customs territory part of the WA.

So in theory this should placate the ERG, but hang out the DUP to dry.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1104052367274713088

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Barnier's thread on what he briefed the ambassadors about this afternoon. So the UK were offered an option to unilaterally exit the single customs territory part of the WA.

So in theory this should placate the ERG, but hang out the DUP to dry.

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1104052367274713088

and this nonsense was the first response

https://twitter.com/gerald_gouriet/status/1104053688178565121

Kermit.de.frog

Back to Northern Ireland only...

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1104052380088393733


DUP explosion in 3, 2, 1...

eire4

munstermagic11 wrote: »

I've suspected that a no-deal Brexit was the likely outcome for some time and the incompetence on the British side continues to increase my suspicions. Scaremongering tactics now by May towards MPs to vote for her deal .............. politically the UK is a mess.

It's going to interesting to see how Brexiteers react when they leave the EU, and actually have to look at themselves for blame/fault rather than Brussels for their issues.

I have long suspected that the crazy out come of no deal on their exit from the EU would be what comes to pass. But as far as who they will blame when the harsh realities start to hit them square between the eyes expect to see a lot of anti Irish rhetoric as we will be blamed and I still think to a lesser extent the EU will be a punching bag to blame for their own failures. I simply have not seen anything to suggest they are even capable yet of looking in the mirror never mind actually facing up to the consequences of their own actions and owning those consequences.

Akrasia

Guy Verhofstadt was giving an update yesterday on the state of the EU negotiations. When he got to Theresa May's proposed extension, he said that they had put the proposal of a short extension to the council (of 27 remaining member states) and it was not their preferred option. There is resistance unless it is purely a technical extension to allow the parliament to pass legislation enabling the Withdrawal agreement.

Theresa May's idea that the EU will agree to a short extension without any agreement on the withdrawal agreement is likely going to run into a brick wall with the EU

I can see the votes next week going against Mays deal and against No deal, but when they come to vote for the extension, if May insists on a short extension only (and this isn't challenged by an opposition or back bench ammendment) then they're looking at running out of time as it could take a few days for the EU to reject their proposal and then a few more days for the HOC to get their sh1t together to request a longer extension.

Alternatively, the EU could already have a rejection response prepared to release moments after the HOC vote is over (as they have done in the past) and this might allow the House to move quickly enough to agree a extension request that allows for a longer extension, most likely including a referendum.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

and this nonsense was the first response

https://twitter.com/gerald_gouriet/status/1104053688178565121

Seriously, he's literally replying in a thread showing what the EU have offered the UK complaining about their intransigence.

robinph

Akrasia wrote: »

Alternatively, the EU could already have a rejection response prepared to release moments after the HOC vote is over (as they have done in the past) and this might allow the House to move quickly enough to agree a extension request that allows for a longer extension, most likely including a referendum.

Most likely the same as previously.

May defeated in the commons, EU immediately tweets a response, May goes back to the commons a couple of days later ignoring the EU response and says that she'll head back to Brussels and ask for a meaningful assurance on legally binding brexit means brexit will of the people and come back to the commons in two weeks to start the whole thing off again.

At some point she'll have to wake up to reality and try something different, but no sign of it happening yet.

Ted Plain

Kalyke wrote: »

He may be, but he has read the WA, which he reiterates ad naseum during EVERY flipping interview he gives!

The stare off..

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1104006646395633667

He's absolutely spot on.

What's also true, and I'm sure it's been said many times already, is that while not everyone who voted for Brexit is thick, all the thicks voted for Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

on the one hand clearly TM is asking the EU for help and on the other she is telling them that the outcome they really want (EU to remain as it is) can be possibly achieved by doing nothing!

The seeming contradiction is because she is not speaking to the EU at all.

The appeal for help is intended to paint the EU as the bad guys to the UK audience since she knows they will say no.

The threat of delay or a referendum is to scare reluctant Brexiteers that if not her deal, they get no Brexit at all.

It's all the same stuff since November, but she is running out of time to bluff anyone, and we can all see her cards.

intellectual dosser

The DUP are going to go nuts.

Laois_Man

intellectual dosser wrote: »

The DUP are going to go nuts.

Only if they think the HoC are going to pass the vote - which the DUP won't vote for...so it needs all of the other Tory's and a few of the rest to vote for it.

It's hard to know for sure but it probably wouldn't pass!

Despite all of today's rambling about the backstop, it's not the only issue many people have!

GM228

https://independent.ie/business/brexit/uk-government-should-understand-brexit-is-a-problem-of-their-creation-varadkar-37893243.html

More on Leo's comments previously mentioned:

"It requires a change of approach from the UK government to understand that Brexit is a problem of their creation"

“They have failed to secure ratification of this so it should be a case of what they are now willing to offer us rather than the opposite"

intellectual dosser

Laois_Man wrote: »

Only if they think the HoC are going to pass the vote - which the DUP won't vote for...so it needs all of the other Tory's and a few of the rest to vote for it.

It's hard to know for sure but it probably wouldn't pass!

Despite all of today's rambling about the backstop, it's not the only issue many people have!

I'm wondering if this is a division strategy by the EU.

JRM, BJ, Kate Hoey etc all visited NI recently and reaffirmed support for them and how NI is the UK etc etc. It will be interesting if some of them suddenly pounce on the opportunity for Brexit without the backstop applying to GB, screwing over NI.

Even Leo Varadkar's comments today were blatantly careless, I wonder if he's trying to shepard UK politicians into seizing Brexit while they can. Mind you the idea of the Irish Govt playing a competent role in strategic soundbites is new to me.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1104068132472270849

Great thread by Tony (yet again), laying all of this out and how Mays speech was received.

It's really beginning to get tasty now.

Igotadose

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1104068132472270849

Great thread by Tony (yet again), laying all of this out and how Mays speech was received.

It's really beginning to get tasty now.

Just heard the same on Newstalk. Basically sounds like what was nearly agreed to, in December 2017. So... if this is what passes, can we pretend last year didn't happen?

GM228

First hints at a DUP response and as expected...

https://twitter.com/Britain247/status/1104080872955932673?s=19

EDIT: Now on Sky News feed:-

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1104079768654438401?s=19

Interestingly the only Tweet thus far from a member of the DUP (Lee Reynolds) on the matter was a retweet of this:-

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1104078621193449473?s=19

ancapailldorcha

I don't really know what it would take to convince ardent pro-Brexit voters and supporters of Brexit that this is going to hurt. All the evidence, polls and expert opinion in the world seems to have no effect. It's so frustrating being dragged along in this tide of... emotion and ignorance. I don't want to be disrespectful towards 17.4 million people I share this island with but some of the absurdities that I've seen on vox pops and utter venom from Tories like Patel are truly beyond the pale.

I don't know if it is too late. I can't see the deal passing on the 12th next week. On the 13th there will be a vote to avert no deal with a possible extension to be voted on a day after.

Infini

intellectual dosser wrote: »

The DUP are going to go nuts.

To be honest the Dumbass Unionist Party is unfit for any sort of power, they arent even competent enough to run a county council yet alone should ever have been allowed to have any influence in the Brexit debate expecially in how they didnt even research their position before the whole Brexit referendum. To be quite honest at this stage they should only be useful as a group to ridicule and make fun considering how they put idiotic ideology before the common good and not listened to while they continue to do so.

As for May shes just wasting time at this stage she should just put the damn thing to a vote beteen remain and her deal either in the commons or a referendum. Make a choice and live with it or risk the disintegration of her country as at this point everyone is tired of this farcical stupidity and those who are driving it.

Laois_Man

DUP wrote:

The offer presented by EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier shows no respect to the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK and is a non-starter

When did the UK get a constitution?

Fr Tod Umptious

Are there enough numbers in the HoC to sideline the DUP ?

With Tories + Independent Group ?