Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

Once again your balanced view is the voice of reason.I think posters who live outside Ireland have a more realistic view of brexit/Britain which although the whole concept of Brexit is a total car crash can see not all Brits are crazed brexiteers.

They are being totally failed by the media though. There is no need for 'balance' any longer : the BBC and others should be informing the public that Brexit is more than likely a complete disaster and that the cheerleaders for it are not coming up with any evidence that it isn't.

The time for balance in Brexit coverage was summer 2016. We're now in March 2019 and three weeks away from a potential No Deal.

Hurrache

Barnier may concede a lot to the UK next week on the subject of the backstop. He's at the game at the moment.

gooch2k9

Hurrache wrote: »

Barnier may concede a lot to the UK next week on the subject of the backstop. He's at the game at the moment.

Opening up the WA like a French defensive line!

S.M.B.

Strazdas wrote: »

They are being totally failed by the media though. There is no need for 'balance' any longer : the BBC and others should be informing the public that Brexit is more than likely a complete disaster and that the cheerleaders for it are not coming up with any evidence that it isn't.

The time for balance in Brexit coverage was summer 2016. We're now in March 2019 and three weeks away from a potential No Deal.

I was at a recording of a BBC Worldwide Brexit debate during the week and it was a lot more balanced than anything I've seen from the traditional UK BBC service. If anything the crowd was heavily made up of remainers.

I find it odd how there is such a difference in platforms.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Once again your balanced view is the voice of reason.I think posters who live outside Ireland have a more realistic view of brexit/Britain which although the whole concept of Brexit is a total car crash can see not all Brits are crazed brexiteers.

I think you are wrong. I think posters who live outside the UK get full well what the average person on the street thinks of the EU. We know it because we've heard it for decades.

It's a facile argument to pretend just because we call these people crazed doesn't mean that we don't understand that they aren't bothered scratching beneath the surface of the lies that are peddled to them.

There is no balance from pretending to listen to these people. The EU is the fault and not the austerity that successive Tory governments have inflicted on them. And they vote them in again.



Yeah good luck with that. Average Brit is welcome to it. If that's what they want to believe.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

I think you are wrong. I think posters who live outside the UK get full well what the average person on the street thinks of the EU. We know it because we've heard it for decades.

It's a facile argument to pretend just because we call these people crazed doesn't mean that we don't understand that they aren't bothered scratching beneath the surface of the lies that are peddled to them.

There is no balance from pretending to listen to these people. The EU is the fault and not the austerity that successive Tory governments have inflicted on them. And they vote them in again.



Yeah good luck with that. Average Brit is welcome to it. If that's what they want to believe.

I think you've just proved my point-you seem to tar all British with the same brush and it's obvious the British(and I'd put money on specifically the English)aren't on your Christmas list-what I meant in my post was a number of Irish posters who don't live in Ireland(France,Germany and UK to name a few ) seem to be more balanced in their opinion and view of the UK and the importance of things like a UI.

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

It's a facile argument to pretend just because we call these people crazed doesn't mean that we don't understand that they aren't bothered scratching beneath the surface of the lies that are peddled to them.

Ah now that's a bit harsh! There are Leavers that have tried scratching beneath the surface, and have found "evidence" that supports what they first heard, and some that dig a bit deeper and find that there are still "facts" that confirm what they've been told. You can't really blame Joe Ordinary for layer upon layer upon layer of lies and propaganda and deliberate misinformation that's been built up over years.

Unless you've lived in parts of the EU where people speak positively of the EU and your life is noticeably improved by rules and regulations with EU stamped on them, it's going to be very hard to get the perspective that we have.

When it comes to apportioning blame in all of this, the Tories should be in first, second and third place, with Labour following in a close fourth. Between them, they have destroyed the chance to maintain and extend political engagement by "the common man".

Both parties should have seen the writing on the wall a decade ago and pushed for electoral reform; instead, they tried to tighten their grip on (or potential to grab) power by sticking with safe-seat FPTP-and-feck-the-rest representation.

Similarly, the government could, at any time, have issued guidelines on the promotion/broadcast of information by old-school and social media, but they didn't and there's no likelihood that they're going to in the near future. This is exactly like the Irish government doing nothing while banks in Ireland lent money to Irish eejits who borrowed more than they could afford to build houses in places no-one wanted to live. One bailout and several NAMA ghost estates later, Ireland and the Irish have (hopefully) learnt their lesson.

If either Leavers or Remainers are going to learn any lessons from the Brexit farce, they'll be learnt in the future; and if we (citizens of Europe) believe in the merits of the EU, we need to be ready to encourage and support those Brits who try to drag the country back from the abyss ... or out of it, if the current inmates of the HoC don't start taking the appropriate medication. :P

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think you've just proved my point-you seem to tar all British with the same brush and it's obvious the British(and I'd put money on specifically the English)aren't on your Christmas list-what I meant in my post was a number of Irish posters who don't live in Ireland(France,Germany and UK to name a few ) seem to be more balanced in their opinion and view of the UK and the importance of things like a UI.

It's not harsh.

We deal on realities. And the reality now is the 27 are bored. They are tired of dealing with incompetence and it very well may be hard brexit.

Frankly I'm tired of it myself so it's time the ordinary Joe learned exactly what trade is.

Anteayer

listermint wrote: »

It's not harsh.

We deal on realities. And the reality now is the 27 are bored. They are tired of dealing with incompetence and it very well may be hard brexit.

Frankly I'm tired of it myself so it's time the ordinary Joe learned exactly what trade is.

To be honest, that's not really how I'm reading it.

I would agree that there's a sense of frustration and even bewilderment coming from most countries at this stage, but there's also a sense that they want to ensure that there's some kind of future relationship that allows things to trade as reasonably as possible. They can't grant the UK access to the EU markets as if it were still a member, as that would be totally unfair on the other EU members and also doesn't give the UK the freedom to do whatever it wants in terms of trade deals, but they will probably come to some solution that is at least warm and friendly.

It's also worth noting that the UK isn't actually the most Eurosceptic country in the EU. Rather, it has a rather unusual print media and has managed to get itself into a situation where a referendum has tripped it into going down a rather insane exit strategy. There are there countries in the EU who have political dilemmas that could potentially cause similar chaos, although it doesn't look all that likely in most cases.

In general, I think think you have to understand it in the context that the overarching raison d'être of the EU is to promote peace, stability and prosperity in Europe and also it's founded on the notion that it builds bridges and strong neighbourly relations with other European countries whether or not they're in the EU itself.

My view of it is that it won't be all that pleasant and there will definitely be significant economic and logistical disruption but that there is a political will in the EU to be friendly and positive going forward and come up with a deal. The problem is that there doesn't seem to be any deal emerging that satisfies Westminster, because British politics in a state of absolute chaos at the moment.

In the medium term, I think you're likely to see some kind of new EU-UK relationship emerge and I really don't think it's going to be an unfriendly one. It's just going to be different - whether the UK ends up doing well or not is really a matter for domestic policy and decisions made in Westminster. At present they're frightening the hell out of investors and businesses as the whole political and regulatory environment is in turmoil. That's not something you'd expect to see in a developed country.

There's a limit to what the EU and its members can do and I think that's being politely reached. It's not going to be a case of any sort of frustrated reaction, it's just that eventually things reach a point where they're beyond the scope of what the EU is. That's really where Brexit is going. Many of the demands would require the EU to fundamentally change what it is to satisfy the demands of an ex-member. That's really not going to happen and I think that's the metaphorical wall that the Brexiteers are now banging their heads against.

It isn't a simple, Laissez-faire, low-regulation, apolitical trade bloc. It's balanced the need to protect living standards, employment, environmental standards, human rights and all of that against the aim of having a single, open free market. What the UK's largely asking is for the EU to dissolve itself and become nothing but a zero-regulation free trade area. That isn't going to happen as there's no political demand for that outside of the Tory Party HQ and maybe the GOP. It is a political project. It always was. It's been about stability, peace, human rights, open but high standards to facilitate trade and market access and all of those things and I don't think that there's anything negative about that or that it's something the EU should be apologising for.

If the UK doesn't want to be part of that, nobody's forcing them to be. I see rants comparing the EU to the USSR or to some empire. It's not and the fact you can walk away from it with a simple referendum or parliamentary process shows precisely why it's not. It can't eliminate the practical consequences of leaving the world's largest (in money terms) single market and developed mixed economy. That's not a punishment - it's just reality.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wonder will Varadkar get anything from Trump next week...


Because that would kick Britain where it really hurts.

The UK know the influence of the "Irish Vote" in the US.
"There's No One As Irish As Barack Obama"

The UK know the US involvement in the peace process in the North.

The UK know our politicians go over to the US every March 17th for a meet and greet PR stunt.


And they still triggered Brexit to happen near the end of March.

Professor Moriarty

Anteayer wrote: »

To be honest, that's not really how I'm reading it.

I would agree that there's a sense of frustration and even bewilderment coming from most countries at this stage, but there's also a sense that they want to ensure that there's some kind of future relationship that allows things to trade as reasonably as possible. They can't grant the UK access to the EU markets as if it were still a member, as that would be totally unfair on the other EU members and also doesn't give the UK the freedom to do whatever it wants in terms of trade deals, but they will probably come to some solution that is at least warm and friendly.

It's also worth noting that the UK isn't actually the most Eurosceptic country in the EU. Rather, it has a rather unusual print media and has managed to get itself into a situation where a referendum has tripped it into going down a rather insane exit strategy. There are there countries in the EU who have political dilemmas that could potentially cause similar chaos, although it doesn't look all that likely in most cases.

In general, I think think you have to understand it in the context that the overarching raison d'être of the EU is to promote peace, stability and prosperity in Europe and also it's founded on the notion that it builds bridges and strong neighbourly relations with other European countries whether or not they're in the EU itself.

My view of it is that it won't be all that pleasant and there will definitely be significant economic and logistical disruption but that there is a political will in the EU to be friendly and positive going forward and come up with a deal. The problem is that there doesn't seem to be any deal emerging that satisfies Westminster, because British politics in a state of absolute chaos at the moment.

In the medium term, I think you're likely to see some kind of new EU-UK relationship emerge and I really don't think it's going to be an unfriendly one. It's just going to be different - whether the UK ends up doing well or not is really a matter for domestic policy and decisions made in Westminster. At present they're frightening the hell out of investors and businesses as the whole political and regulatory environment is in turmoil. That's not something you'd expect to see in a developed country.

There's a limit to what the EU and its members can do and I think that's being politely reached. It's not going to be a case of any sort of frustrated reaction, it's just that eventually things reach a point where they're beyond the scope of what the EU is. That's really where Brexit is going. Many of the demands would require the EU to fundamentally change what it is to satisfy the demands of an ex-member. That's really not going to happen and I think that's the metaphorical wall that the Brexiteers are now banging their heads against.

It isn't a simple, Laissez-faire, low-regulation, apolitical trade bloc. It's balanced the need to protect living standards, employment, environmental standards, human rights and all of that against the aim of having a single, open free market. What the UK's largely asking is for the EU to dissolve itself and become nothing but a zero-regulation free trade area. That isn't going to happen as there's no political demand for that outside of the Tory Party HQ and maybe the GOP. It is a political project. It always was. It's been about stability, peace, human rights, open but high standards to facilitate trade and market access and all of those things and I don't think that there's anything negative about that or that it's something the EU should be apologising for.

If the UK doesn't want to be part of that, nobody's forcing them to be. I see rants comparing the EU to the USSR or to some empire. It's not and the fact you can walk away from it with a simple referendum or parliamentary process shows precisely why it's not. It can't eliminate the practical consequences of leaving the world's largest (in money terms) single market and developed mixed economy. That's not a punishment - it's just reality.

The UK is actually the most Eurosceptic country. A binary in/out opinion poll late last year showed that 35% of British voters would vote Leave. This is 9% higher than the next country which is Cyprus at 26%.

Anteayer

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The UK is actually the most Eurosceptic country. A binary in/out opinion poll late last year showed that 35% of British voters would vote Leave. This is 9% higher than the next country which is Cyprus at 26%.

It varies a lot depending on which survey - across a range of issues France rates as more annoyed with the EU in general.
The issue in the UK is that it’s been condensed down to in vs out.

When you start getting down to brass tacks the UK eueoscepticism tends to driven by jingoistim rather than genuine arguments.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Open to correction, but I think Schengen is a requirement too.

Short version. The UK say good bye to all their opt-outs.

So Schengen, unless we use our CTA exemption as a reason to hobble our travelling.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

New EU entrants need to sign up to
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis_en

So Schengen and the Euro. And signing up to ERM and Charter of Fundamental Rights and Area of freedom, security and justice. Things the UK have opt-outs for now.

Any one of those is a major RED LINE. So humble pie would have to be eaten if Brexit goes pear shaped and the EU goes "what did you think would happen ?"


Also potentially citizens barred from working in some EU countries for up to seven years like the A8 Countries if Brexit is worse than predicted.

Also the rebate would be gone so that's a couple of billion a year.

lawred2

Anteayer wrote: »

It's also worth noting that the UK isn't actually the most Eurosceptic country in the EU..

Fairly sure it is actually

tuxy

lawred2 wrote: »

Fairly sure it is actually

Many polls show other EU countries who have a higher level of distrust for the EU but that does not mean they want to leave.

Anteayer

lawred2 wrote: »

Fairly sure it is actually

Have a read through a broader selection of surveys. It in the lower rungs usually but it’s not consistently the most anti EU, particularly when questions are broader than just asking in/out.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah now that's a bit harsh! There are Leavers that have tried scratching beneath the surface, and have found "evidence" that supports what they first heard, and some that dig a bit deeper and find that there are still "facts" that confirm what they've been told. You can't really blame Joe Ordinary for layer upon layer upon layer of lies and propaganda and deliberate misinformation that's been built up over years.

Unless you've lived in parts of the EU where people speak positively of the EU and your life is noticeably improved by rules and regulations with EU stamped on them, it's going to be very hard to get the perspective that we have.

When it comes to apportioning blame in all of this, the Tories should be in first, second and third place, with Labour following in a close fourth. Between them, they have destroyed the chance to maintain and extend political engagement by "the common man".

Both parties should have seen the writing on the wall a decade ago and pushed for electoral reform; instead, they tried to tighten their grip on (or potential to grab) power by sticking with safe-seat FPTP-and-feck-the-rest representation.

Similarly, the government could, at any time, have issued guidelines on the promotion/broadcast of information by old-school and social media, but they didn't and there's no likelihood that they're going to in the near future. This is exactly like the Irish government doing nothing while banks in Ireland lent money to Irish eejits who borrowed more than they could afford to build houses in places no-one wanted to live. One bailout and several NAMA ghost estates later, Ireland and the Irish have (hopefully) learnt their lesson.

If either Leavers or Remainers are going to learn any lessons from the Brexit farce, they'll be learnt in the future; and if we (citizens of Europe) believe in the merits of the EU, we need to be ready to encourage and support those Brits who try to drag the country back from the abyss ... or out of it, if the current inmates of the HoC don't start taking the appropriate medication. :P

Politics is almot always dominated by the gray vote. The current gray generation in the UK is one that has nostalgia for the time before EU membership.

In 30 or 40 years time the then gray vote will be the generation that grew up in the 90s and 00s, in the warm embrace of the EU. If the UK has not rejoined the EU by then, they will once that generation comes to dominate the UK political scene.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

Fairly sure it is actually

For certain : most Eurosceptics on the continent merely want to reform the EU.

British Eurosceptics want to get out of it forever and many want to destroy the union

lawred2

Anteayer wrote: »

It varies a lot depending on which survey - across a range of issues France rates as more annoyed with the EU in general.
The issue in the UK is that it’s been condensed down to in vs out.

When you start getting down to brass tacks the UK eueoscepticism tends to driven by jingoistim rather than genuine arguments.

Those annoyances do not translate to ever having a majority which would vote for leaving the EU.

Regardless of whether the average British Joe has real tangible grievances or not; the fact of the matter is is that enough people were aggrieved enough to vote to leave. And remain to be so despite everything now having been laid out in detail in front of them.

There is not one other country even close to that stage.

lawred2

Anteayer wrote: »

Have a read through a broader selection of surveys. It in the lower rungs usually but it’s not consistently the most anti EU, particularly when questions are broader than just asking in/out.

There ain't a more accurate measure of EU skepticism than leaving the shagging thing- is there?

You could survey every country in the EU on micro matters and find a majority aggrieved about something or other..

But never on a macro in out two fingers to the EU level.

The UK is without doubt on it's own in that regard.

Anteayer

Well, without the second round system in the French elections, it is very likely France could end up in a similar situation. The only thing that prevents it is that you’ve a voting system that includes a second round run off between the top two candidates, so you have to really get a majority of the whole electorate.

Professor Moriarty

Anteayer wrote: »

It varies a lot depending on which survey - across a range of issues France rates as more annoyed with the EU in general.
The issue in the UK is that it’s been condensed down to in vs out.

When you start getting down to brass tacks the UK eueoscepticism tends to driven by jingoistim rather than genuine arguments.

This survey was of 28,000 people across the EU. It also asked if the EU was a good or bad thing for 'our country'. France had a much more positive view of the EU than the UK. These polls also show that while a country can have a negative view of the EU, it doesn't necessarily translate into wanting to leave the EU.

Anteayer

Well yes, but again if you condense everything down to an in / out question, this is what you get. Oversimplification.

The UK has also been utterly poisoned against the EU in a way that no where else has been - it’s also been through the whole Brexit campaign which has really taken things to a new level.

When you start to pick away at it and look at the range of issues - the picture isn’t the same.

I’ve read a lot of these surveys and the UK hasn’t always been at the bottom of every survey.

McGiver

lawred2 wrote:

Denmark and Sweden both got exemptions like the UK because they were current members at the time of adoption.

Sweden doesn't have an opt out from the the euro. They are obliged to adopt it but have been successfully stalling the adoption.
Denmark has an opt-out but Danish Krone is pegged to the euro so its technically a "Danish Euro", to give them a false sense of independence currency.
All of members are obliged to adopt the euro unless opt-out is negotiated and these opt-outs are not on the table anymore. They were one-offs.

CelticRambler

Anteayer wrote: »

Well, without the second round system in the French elections, it is very likely France could end up in a similar situation. The only thing that prevents it is that you’ve a voting system that includes a second round run off between the top two candidates, so you have to really get a majority of the whole electorate.

Not exactly. The two-round system in France is no longer fit for purpose. It's better than FPTP, but only because it's effectively First Two Past The Post, then we'll have the real election. Round 1 has traditionally been the time when the electorate casts it protest vote, knowing that Round 2 will be a run-off between the usual major Left and Right parties that have always contested every election, when it becomes a "vote against the one you don't want".

In other words, pretty much the same as in the UK, which led to two decades of political stalemate, a stagnant economy and a disenfranchised populace. Voters gave themselves a bit of a shock when they accidentally voted Jean-Marie Le Pen into the second round in 2002 thanks to a Brexit-like we-didn't-think-he'd-win protest in R1, so they played it safe in the next two presidential ballots. And then, in 2016, Macron successfully gamed the system to win both the presidental and national campaigns.

Now while the French system is ridiculously easy to manipulate (Macron was elected on just 24% of votes for - which, incidentally, is pretty much where his popularity has stayed to date) the moral of the story is that every other party in France fell apart after the 2017 elections, and so despite that low headline figure, Macron & Co. are still polling highest in the EP polls ... Oh, and France is actually starting to get its act together again! :cool:

This, I think, is what needs to happen in the UK: not just a bit of seat-shuffling, between the two English parties with opt-ins and opt-outs from the provincial lookers-on, but some new force to appear on the scene and rip the seating arrangements in Westminster to pieces. Sadly, there doesn't seem to be anyone from any walk of life with the guts and the platform to make that happen.

Anteayer

I'm not saying that the French system is particularly good. What I'm saying is it blocked Le Pen from getting into office on a smaller than 50% vote.

Macron is in on votes borrowed from socialists and others purely because he was less unpalatable than Le Pen. That's not exactly an endorsement or a wonderful mandate but there isn't a majority in favour of Le Pen. She's capable of being polarising enough to make socialists and greens vote for Macron.

I mean, it was so bad when her father was up against Chirac that left and centre left voters symbolically wore rubber gloves to the polling stations when casting votes against him and for Chirac.

It's just first past the post with a run off and it (along with the history of ludicrously long 7 year terms until the 2000s) meant a lot of people feel unrepresented and tend to express their political opinions on the street as they don't have the option of doing so through the ballot box.

However, to get back on topic, if you look at UK polling on the EU it hasn't ever been positive but it's only been this negative since the Brexit campaigns kicked off.

Everything has been condensed into a binary choice.

listermint

Anteayer wrote: »

Well yes, but again if you condense everything down to an in / out question, this is what you get. Oversimplification.

The UK has also been utterly poisoned against the EU in a way that no where else has been - it’s also been through the whole Brexit campaign which has really taken things to a new level.

When you start to pick away at it and look at the range of issues - the picture isn’t the same.

I’ve read a lot of these surveys and the UK hasn’t always been at the bottom of every survey.

I'm confused...


We all know the population has been poisoned with anti EU sentiment.

It's precisely that which as resulted in them being the most Eurosceptic country.

So yes ordinary Joe can now get to taste what trade and membership actually means. It's not up to the EU nor Ireland to save British citizens from their own jingoism. That's on them.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Politics is almot always dominated by the gray vote. The current gray generation in the UK is one that has nostalgia for the time before EU membership.

In 30 or 40 years time the then gray vote will be the generation that grew up in the 90s and 00s, in the warm embrace of the EU. If the UK has not rejoined the EU by then, they will once that generation comes to dominate the UK political scene.

Most of the grey vote in the UK never had it so good. When they were young the economy picked up, they've always had the NHS, and now they insulated from the economy by triple lock state pensions, or have the last of the defined benefit pensions.

There's no downside from Brexit for them, at least on first glance. Even if there were they are quite prepared for hardship , at least for others.

From August 2017, has anything changed since ? https://www.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-leave-voters-happy-for-relatives-to-lose-jobs-over-brexit-2017-8?r=US&IR=T

61% of all Brexit-backers believe that significant damage to the British economy would be a "price worth paying for Brexit," according to the new YouGov poll.

A further 39% of all Leave voters would also be willing for their own family members to lose their jobs as a price for Brexit, with just 38% opposed.

Older pensioners who remember the war or rationing voted remain.

Anteayer

I'm not saying it's up to anyone to save the UK from itself. All I'm saying is that arguing logic and rationality to a population that doesn't want to know isn't going to work.

The argument has been lost and there's no real coming back from that. As far as I can see the UK's relationship with the EU is over, as a member anyway.

If you go issue by issue the UK isn't that Eurosceptic, but if you ask them so they want to leave they say yes. It's just a terrible shame that it was condensed down to that.

So I think we are really having a pointless debate. They're going to leave. It's just a question of whether they leave sanely or try to torch the building on the way out.

From an Irish point of view all that really matters at this stage is preventing a return to chaos in NI and minimising disruption to Irish trade and maintaining the CTA within reason. I'm also of the view that we should ruthlessly maximise any brexit benefits by grabbing as much business as we can. They've put our economy at risk and I don't think we owe them any great loyalty or respect after doing that. They didn't give one moment's consideration to what was going to happen here and I don't think we should be shy about encouraging as much business to move in here as possible. We will need it.

Beyond that it's entirely down to the UK to figure itself out. It would be patronising to suggest otherwise.

Water John

Might be time to reset peoples perception. As it stands the majority of UK citizens don't wish to leave the EU. All people are hearing are the loud brexiteers.