Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

fly_agaric

Anteayer wrote: »

There's a limit to what the EU and its members can do and I think that's being politely reached. It's not going to be a case of any sort of frustrated reaction, it's just that eventually things reach a point where they're beyond the scope of what the EU is. That's really where Brexit is going. Many of the demands would require the EU to fundamentally change what it is to satisfy the demands of an ex-member. That's really not going to happen and I think that's the metaphorical wall that the Brexiteers are now banging their heads against.

It isn't a simple, Laissez-faire, low-regulation, apolitical trade bloc. It's balanced the need to protect living standards, employment, environmental standards, human rights and all of that against the aim of having a single, open free market. What the UK's largely asking is for the EU to dissolve itself and become nothing but a zero-regulation free trade area. That isn't going to happen as there's no political demand for that outside of the Tory Party HQ and maybe the GOP. It is a political project. It always was. It's been about stability, peace, human rights, open but high standards to facilitate trade and market access and all of those things and I don't think that there's anything negative about that or that it's something the EU should be apologising for.

If the UK doesn't want to be part of that, nobody's forcing them to be. I see rants comparing the EU to the USSR or to some empire. It's not and the fact you can walk away from it with a simple referendum or parliamentary process shows precisely why it's not. It can't eliminate the practical consequences of leaving the world's largest (in money terms) single market and developed mixed economy. That's not a punishment - it's just reality.

Very interesting post.

Anteayer wrote: »

In the medium term, I think you're likely to see some kind of new EU-UK relationship emerge and I really don't think it's going to be an unfriendly one.

I'd worry about that future relationship (with the current government & the Conservative party generally anyway).

Like a divorce, it will be messy even if people are trying hard to make the best of it.

There is I think a lot of goodwill on the EU side to make it work but it is not reciprocated by current government in the UK. As someone following along, it looks to me like it negotiated in bad faith for the last 2 years, tried to divide the EU members, or sought things that would badly damage their supposed allies in the EU (or as you said, effectively dissolve the EU) if accepted.

Their negotiators agree things and politicians in the UK later claim they meant something else (original NI backstop).

Conservatives make angry threats against the EU (UK resident EU citizens rights as leverage, withdrawing sharing of intelligence information, "starving" Ireland into submission/destroying the Irish economy).

They make commitments which cannot pass through the political system and then turn around and blame the intransigence of the EU side.

I can't see building a future relationship getting easier unless the Conservatives (and the now rabid anti-EU obsessed contingent in them who have managed to drive the whole "Brexit" process almost off a cliff since 2016) are given a good long holiday from power in the UK.

I don't see that period in the wilderness happening (as an outsider going by the polls in the UK), and negative impacts of Brexit will not change any minds that are set, as the politicians and media will just blame everything on the EU.

kevthegaff

How will Cameron legacy be viewed upon in ten years? Didn't Cameron go to Europe before the referendum with reform, and most of these were approved. I do wonder why Cameron even started this mess

LuckyLloyd

kevthegaff wrote: »

How will Cameron legacy be viewed upon in ten years? Didn't Cameron go to Europe before the referendum with reform, and most of these were approved. I do wonder why Cameron even started this mess

He’ll be viewed as an egotistical hubristic buffoon who sacrificed his country at the altar of his own party political concerns.

Tell me how

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He’ll be viewed as an egotistical hubristic buffoon who sacrificed his country at the altar of his own party political concerns.

Maybe. He might not get even that much attention. He certainly will get a footnote in having called the referendum, losing it and then resigning but after that, is he not fairly forgettable.

Blair had the Iraq war.
Theresa May has the Brexit negotiations.

In future I think these two will get most analysis over this 20 year period. Cameron may slide in to insignificance aside from the above.

Hurrache

I see Raab was back in TV this morning decrying "the total intransigence of the EU" and saying that it's the EU that can make moves in order to get the vote through on Tuesday. He's one of the guys throwing his hat in for next Tory leader.

kevthegaff

Tell me how wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He’ll be viewed as an egotistical hubristic buffoon who sacrificed his country at the altar of his own party political concerns.

Maybe. He might not get even that much attention. He certainly will get a footnote in having called the referendum, losing it and then resigning but after that, is he not fairly forgettable.

Blair had the Iraq war.
Theresa May has the Brexit negotiations.

In future I think these two will get most analysis over this 20 year period. Cameron may slide in to insignificance aside from the above.

Tell me how wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He’ll be viewed as an egotistical hubristic buffoon who sacrificed his country at the altar of his own party political concerns.

Maybe. He might not get even that much attention. He certainly will get a footnote in having called the referendum, losing it and then resigning but after that, is he not fairly forgettable.

Blair had the Iraq war.
Theresa May has the Brexit negotiations.

In future I think these two will get most analysis over this 20 year period. Cameron may slide in to insignificance aside from the above.

Maybe this could be the answer as we haven't heard about him

Capt'n Midnight

Tell me how wrote: »

Maybe. He might not get even that much attention. He certainly will get a footnote in having called the referendum, losing it and then resigning but after that, is he not fairly forgettable.

Blair had the Iraq war.
Theresa May has the Brexit negotiations.

In future I think these two will get most analysis over this 20 year period. Cameron may slide in to insignificance aside from the above.

It depends on the outcome.

If it goes full Hard Brexit then yeah he'll be blamed.
One of the basic rules in politics is never asking a question you don't already know the answer to. Like a gambler on a "lucky streak" he kept winging it. And then bailed.


Brexit was fundamentally a sop to appease the right wing of the Tory party, for now.

The reality about Tory unity ? £40 BILLION A YEAR later , the ERG who are only a part of the euro scetics have a split. ( even Guido have that )

It's not like the ERG are even a solid block anymore. Just in case anyone was wondering how much of an omnishambles Brexit is.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

For certain : most Eurosceptics on the continent merely want to reform the EU.

British Eurosceptics want to get out of it forever and many want to destroy the union

The Eurosceptic fanatics (half of England as far as I can see) want to destroy the EU more than actually want to leave it. It’s a pretty unique type of poisonous bitterness not really present anywhere else in Europe. I find it hard to comprehend myself but I guess it goes back to the hatred of the democratic nature of the EU itself (gives smaller nations a good say) and the never ending legacy of WW1 and WW2 with their failure to deal with the legacy of that in the way France and Germany genuinely have and are now the powerhouse of the EU. I like the EU, it’s good for ireland and we have genuine friends all over the continent- I look forward to further integration and growing those ties as we move even further beyond our UK history. I think ultimately once this all gets sorted the EU is well rid of an uncommitted tiresome member

Anteayer

I think what you're seeing in the Tory Party and also in the US Republican Party (and not necessarily directly around Trump) is the rise of ideologically driven ultra libertarians. The vision being presented for the UK is something more modern mercantilism, with no regulation and a tiny state that only exists to create economic opportunity for businesses. Some of the stuff these guys come out with in books and papers is quite astonishingly lacking in any kind of concept of a society or a social contract. It's all about the idea of protecting your own wealth, having no supports and being a 'sovereign individual' and so on.

They're often city banker types who viciously oppose the EU because the EU has dared to try and reign in "The City" excesses and that's become more of a conflict since the 2008 crash. The UK (more so the Tories) have been very hostile towards any moves that the EU's made to regulate financial services, even where it would have only involved the Eurozone. They've also been extremely hostile towards the Euro itself, even though they're not in it. There are strong parallels in the mindset of some US Republicans who are seeking to dismantle the US federal government agencies that they see as impeding business. You're seeing the same attacks on multilateral organisations the US is involved in: NAFTA, NATO, the UN and even swipes at the EU which is nothing to do with them.

There's a notion amongst some of the Tories and UKIP people that they can turn the UK into Singapore. To do so would require massive reductions in public expenditure and basically isn't feasible with a large mixed economy and a welfare state. You've people talking about no regulations, no tariffs and so on. All of that would cause serious problems in parts of the country that they simply don't care about, yet it's being bought into by the very people who'd suffer most if it were to happen.

They've found all the nationalistic hate, fear and fantasy buttons to push to get the UK to vote in favour of a policy that will just allow massive deregulation of the British economy. I don't think most people in the UK actually agree with these policies, and I would suspect we're probably looking at a decade of political chaos as things start to rebalance. I would predict something more like the 1970s and 80s level of social unrest will happen should this thing continue along the path it's on at the moment.

It's also going to get very 'interesting' as the Trump administration gets replaced by a democrat and the Senate turns democratic too (next elections for both are Nov 2020)

I'm at the stage where I think I would nearly prefer to see the UK leave the EU, if that's the agenda that it's pushing. I don't really want to live in a society based on totally unregulated capitalism and i don't really think the EU should bend over backwards to undo decades of social democracy in Europe to suit a narrow agenda of one side of British or American politics.. I'd much rather have a balance.

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

The Eurosceptic fanatics (half of England as far as I can see) want to destroy the EU more than actually want to leave it. It’s a pretty unique type of poisonous bitterness not really present anywhere else in Europe. I find it hard to comprehend myself but I guess it goes back to the hatred of the democratic nature of the EU itself (gives smaller nations a good say) and the never ending legacy of WW1 and WW2 with their failure to deal with the legacy of that in the way France and Germany genuinely have and are now the powerhouse of the EU. I like the EU, it’s good for ireland and we have genuine friends all over the continent- I look forward to further integration and growing those ties as we move even further beyond our UK history. I think ultimately once this all gets sorted the EU is well rid of an uncommitted tiresome member

As a scapegoat for most of Britain's problems, the EU is an utterly absurd one. Go to any country in Europe (including Ireland of course) and virtually no ordinary citizen on the street is discussing EU membership, the Euro currency or anything else.

The British press and the right wing politicians have pulled an almighty con and convinced ordinary Joe Soap types that EU membership is the defining issue of the times and more important than anything else. It must be the biggest smoke and mirrors job in a developed country in the last 50 years.

ilovesmybrick

Meet the Irish in Britain who voted for Brexit: ‘My views can offend dinner-party sentiment’

Now, as an immigrant to another European country I do think there is a certain truth to what the lad means when he says:

I think you only get to know your own country when you live outside it

However, you'd have to be a complete tool to go back home living abroad and spout the nonsense about Ireland surrendering their independence etc. etc. I can empathize with British brexiteers to a certain extent, but the Irish and other foreign nationalities based in the UK that support it (including members of my own family) I have nothing but contempt for.

gooch2k9

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Meet the Irish in Britain who voted for Brexit: ‘My views can offend dinner-party sentiment’

Now, as an immigrant to another European country I do think there is a certain truth to what the lad means when he says:



However, you'd have to be a complete tool to go back home living abroad and spout the nonsense about Ireland surrendering their independence etc. etc. I can empathize with British brexiteers to a certain extent, but the Irish and other foreign nationalities based in the UK that support it (including members of my own family) I have nothing but contempt for.

That's just a laundry list of Express headlines being spouted as informed knowledge on the EU.



This Y2K thing has to stop as well!

McGiver

gooch2k9 wrote:

That's just a laundry list of Express headlines being spouted as informed knowledge on the EU.

The next step, he says, is for Ireland to leave the EU. “Ireland has no choice,†Kelly says. “I don’t understand it – you spend 800 years trying to gain independence and within 60 years sign up to another imperial power.â€

This is truly shocking.

If EU is an imperial power - where are the colonies?

This is incredible bullshít. And also it's outright insulting to compare UK treatment of the Ireland to the membership of Ireland in the EU. Mr Kelly didn't read enough or maybe too much of a particular type of publication (gutter press).

pauldla

McGiver wrote: »

This is truly shocking.

If EU is an imperial power - where are the colonies?

This is incredible bullshít. And also it's outright insulting to compare UK treatment of the Ireland to the membership of Ireland in the EU. Mr Kelly didn't read enough or maybe too much of a particular type of publication (gutter press).

Do you remember when EU troops burned down Cork city centre? :pac:

Those who compare UK treatment of Ireland to Ireland's membership of the EU have very limited understanding of either, I'd reckon.

Leroy42

There was an MP on 5Live this morning (sometime after 7 but didn't catch her name) and one of the questions she was asked was "Which is worse, No Deal or Extension?", to which she replied, without any hesitation, "Oh, Extension of course". Now the presenter asked her about the possible impact of No deal to which she replied it was all made up, but he failed to ask what was so wrong with an extension.

Why, even if you believe that the NO deal impact would be minimal, would you risk doing something when clearly the UK is not ready for it. The only reason I can ascertain thus far, based on other interviews like Davis this weekend, is that delay is the inevitable start of No Brexit.

IMO, that is where the conversation in the UK currently is. There is no debate about whether Brexit is a good or bad idea, or even whether a plan, any plan, is good or bad. The mantra has been successfully woven into the mainstream that people voted for Brexit, Brexit means 29th March and anything that doesn't deliver Brexit by 29th is thus anti democratic.

You have MPs coming onto TV and radio shows saying that it would be the end of democracy if the HoC did not fulfil its promises, when at the same time they have all, from whatever party, stood by governments that went against the very manifestos they ran on. Its nauseating to hear it.

Havockk

Leroy42 wrote: »

There was an MP on 5Live this morning (sometime after 7 but didn't catch her name) and one of the questions she was asked was "Which is worse, No Deal or Extension?", to which she replied, without any hesitation, "Oh, Extension of course". Now the presenter asked her about the possible impact of No deal to which she replied it was all made up, but he failed to ask what was so wrong with an extension.

Why, even if you believe that the NO deal impact would be minimal, would you risk doing something when clearly the UK is not ready for it. The only reason I can ascertain thus far, based on other interviews like Davis this weekend, is that delay is the inevitable start of No Brexit.

IMO, that is where the conversation in the UK currently is. There is no debate about whether Brexit is a good or bad idea, or even whether a plan, any plan, is good or bad. The mantra has been successfully woven into the mainstream that people voted for Brexit, Brexit means 29th March and anything that doesn't deliver Brexit by 29th is thus anti democratic.

You have MPs coming onto TV and radio shows saying that it would be the end of democracy if the HoC did not fulfil its promises, when at the same time they have all, from whatever party, stood by governments that went against the very manifestos they ran on. Its nauseating to hear it.

BBC TV Had Mark Francois rolled out today again too, spouting his nonsnse. Everyone should be preparing for a no deal in my opinion.

lawred2

Havockk wrote: »

BBC TV Had Mark Francois rolled out today again too, spouting his nonsnse. Everyone should be preparing for a no deal in my opinion.

that lad was on with Piers Morgan :rolleyes: this morning as well

busy lad if he was on the BBC as well

surprisingly little to say beyond cliches but seems like that's all that's needed

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

that lad was on with Piers Morgan :rolleyes: this morning as well

busy lad if he was on the BBC as well

surprisingly little to say beyond cliches but seems like that's all that's needed

It is all that is needed. As the campaign showed, cliches and slogans are simple and easy to remember and seemingly people don't want to know any more than that.

What is the phrase? 'A lie can get around the world before the truth puts on its shoes'.

They are not being asked to provide any details, simply repeat the various claims and by the time somebody does raise a question they simply move onto something else or wave away the concern.

Take for example the claim that No Deal is harmless based on claims, prior to the ref vote on the remain side from the government about recession etc, were incorrect. There is simply no time to indulge in a discussion about what the BoE did to stop the recession, there is no time to discuss the drop in overall GDP. And there is little point in asking, if they don't believe the official forecasts, what are they basing their claim that No Deal will have no impact on? Bring up the clear trajectory that business confidence is down, that jobs are, at best, in clear danger of being lost, and the response is either its all made up, the good news is being buried, or that these companies are terrible at what they do and UK is better off without them anyway.

An the majority of the UK public is simply standing aside and letting this happen, and in their name. You had what? a million people protest against the war in Iraq during Blair's time, which whilst noble and IMO correct, would in reality effect a very small amount of people in the UK.

Brexit is going to impact, directly or indirectly, on nearly every person, and probably have a lasting effect on the UK as whole, yet most people are simply doing and saying nothing.

Kermit.de.frog

More talk of Theresa May resigning by some MPs.

I don't think any MP who would be in contention wants her job at the moment.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't think any MP who would be in contention wants her job at the moment.

Several already have election teams in place, so there's 3 or 4 already lining it up.

BonnieSituation

McGiver wrote: »

This is truly shocking.

If EU is an imperial power - where are the colonies?

This is incredible bullshít. And also it's outright insulting to compare UK treatment of the Ireland to the membership of Ireland in the EU. Mr Kelly didn't read enough or maybe too much of a particular type of publication (gutter press).

I like how we signed up to another imperial power.

Must be the first such "colony"?

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

Several already have election teams in place, so there's 3 or 4 already lining it up.

Yes, but they don't want it NOW. First they need May to be forced to do something, anything - Brexit with or without a deal, delay, revoke A5, whatever it is she finally does, and take the blame for it.



Then they will swoop in to bravely continue blaming May for 5 years or so.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but they don't want it NOW. First they need May to be forced to do something, anything - Brexit with or without a deal, delay, revoke A5, whatever it is she finally does, and take the blame for it.



Then they will swoop in to bravely continue blaming May for 5 years or so.

The that is exactly what Labour are doing as well.

This is what has exacerbated the whole thing. Nobody wants to actually stand up and cal lout TM for fear that she collapses and they are left to pick up the pieces. Even after Cameron quit, the 'Leadership contest' in the Tory party was a disaster. TM was basically the last person standing. At one point it was going to be a run off between TM and Leadsom! Good grief. IN a time when the UK needed strong leadership, this was the best the Tories had to offer?

So without the party everybody has an opinion and 'knows' how to fix everything, but nobody actually wants to do anything. And Labour are doing exactly the same,. Corbyn happy enough to watch as the disaster unfolds on the basis that the bigger the mess that better chance he has of becoming the next PM.

So everybody has opted to forget about the good of the country and instead are focused purely on what is in their narrow interests, and I include the voters in that as well.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

The that is exactly what Labour are doing as well.

This is what has exacerbated the whole thing. Nobody wants to actually stand up and cal lout TM for fear that she collapses and they are left to pick up the pieces. Even after Cameron quit, the 'Leadership contest' in the Tory party was a disaster. TM was basically the last person standing. At one point it was going to be a run off between TM and Leadsom! Good grief. IN a time when the UK needed strong leadership, this was the best the Tories had to offer?

So without the party everybody has an opinion and 'knows' how to fix everything, but nobody actually wants to do anything. And Labour are doing exactly the same,. Corbyn happy enough to watch as the disaster unfolds on the basis that the bigger the mess that better chance he has of becoming the next PM.

So everybody has opted to forget about the good of the country and instead are focused purely on what is in their narrow interests, and I include the voters in that as well.

It is incredible to see a nation swayed in to following the words of Farage, Davis, Johnson and having the absolute derth of talent at the head of governent.

Corbyn, May, Abott, Gove, Cameron, Johnson, Thornberry, Javid, Davis.
How has it happened that this is what they have become?
Who is truly at fault?

Was Brian Clough right?

I would love to hear what the likes of Angela Merkel or Obama thinks of the whole thing on a personal level. Both are close to having no skin in the game (obama never had) but are astute globally experienced politicians who have seen a lot.

Water John

Even though he's treacherous, the best on the Brexiteer side would probably be Gove.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

Raab on TV said yesterday that if she extends article 50 she'll find herself in an even trickier situation with regards to holding on. And according to the Sunday Times they're lining up to try oust her if she does extend it, with some senior cabinet ministers thinking about telling her to leave this week.

So the new leader is expected to be one of Johnson, Raab, Hunt and Javid, what a horrid bunch.

Wouldn't it be great if an initially grey but ultimately safe, truly conservative (in comparison) pair of hands like John Major would emerge from the chaos.

An Claidheamh

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Meet the Irish in Britain who voted for Brexit: ‘My views can offend dinner-party sentiment’

Now, as an immigrant to another European country I do think there is a certain truth to what the lad means when he says:



However, you'd have to be a complete tool to go back home living abroad and spout the nonsense about Ireland surrendering their independence etc. etc. I can empathize with British brexiteers to a certain extent, but the Irish and other foreign nationalities based in the UK that support it (including members of my own family) I have nothing but contempt for.

Two grotesque individuals.

I think people have this stereotypical view of the Irish in Britain as victims, in the modern day, many are failures.

Essentially, they spout the same nonsense the British press tell them and ingratiate with the people they feel inferior too.

It's always been pointed out that the Irish far right have always been pro-British Sindo FG voters (Irish Nationalists eg Irexit types are really serving British Nationalists and against Irish sovereignty)

The whole pig ignorant nonsense regarding Ireland "surrendering it's independence" by those who were against it, support partition and want Ireland to be their British commonwealth subjects.

Journalist ought to have challenged him on that.

Ireland has an extremely low unemployment rate.
These modern immigrants aren't victims, manumy are twits.

Imagine Ireland where half the voting population where as thick as Mr Malone.

Doesn't bear thinking about.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Raab on TV said yesterday that if she extends article 50 she'll find herself in an even trickier situation with regards to holding on. And according to the Sunday Times they're lining up to try oust her if she does extend it, with some senior cabinet ministers thinking about telling her to leave this week.

So the new leader is expected to be one of Johnson, Raab, Hunt and Javid, what a horrid bunch.

But how would they oust her? They would have to do it in a way that doesn't harm the party in the eyes of the voters and seeing that they cannot do it from a party perspective only as the ERG shot that load last year already, the only way is to cause even more chaos for the party.

Water John wrote: »

Even though he's treacherous, the best on the Brexiteer side would probably be Gove.

No, just no. There is no way someone who is so duplicitous should be anywhere near power. He has run away from responsibility in regards to Brexit and the knife he stuck in Johnson's back is still there. He has no fondness for the GFA to boot so he is just as bad, if not worse, than the rest of them.

Tell me how

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Meet the Irish in Britain who voted for Brexit: ‘My views can offend dinner-party sentiment’

Now, as an immigrant to another European country I do think there is a certain truth to what the lad means when he says:



However, you'd have to be a complete tool to go back home living abroad and spout the nonsense about Ireland surrendering their independence etc. etc. I can empathize with British brexiteers to a certain extent, but the Irish and other foreign nationalities based in the UK that support it (including members of my own family) I have nothing but contempt for.

I believe in democracy, and I don’t believe Europe is democratic. It’s not just the fact they are unelected, it is the broader feeling about a lack of control.”

How the f.u.c.k are people still talking about Europe being uneleceted?

'Jacob Rees-Mogg really believes in what he is saying and he respects the working man. He is far more in touch because of his honesty'

Words fail me.

ArmaniJeanss

Looks like tomorrows vote will be pulled. Plenty of time left to play with I guess .

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-vote-must-be-put-on-hold-mps-warn-theresa-may-3jkhl37gm

Behind paywall but you'll get the gist from the first 3 paragraphs.