Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

So if leaks are to be believed, the WA which Leo, simon and the gang said would not be reopened, has been reopened and a new bit on arbitration added? And the Brits have seen enough that Coxy can stand up in HoC and say on behalf of the queen that the Brits can leave the Deal if they want?

There are no such 'leaks'

Hurrache

I would not be a bit surprised that after the DUP finish with the chief whip, and when the cabinet finishes their meeting, there'll be no announcement and May will be on her way home without the support to even declare she has additional declarations.

tuxy

Exactly, rewording and further non legally binding assurances is not reopening the WA

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

So if leaks are to be believed, the WA which Leo, simon and the gang said would not be reopened, has been reopened and a new bit on arbitration added? And the Brits have seen enough that Coxy can stand up in HoC and say on behalf of the queen that the Brits can leave the Deal if they want?

From what I have heard, the WA has not been reopened, the assurances are to be part of a seperate legally binding document. Being assurances, they don't change the WA, mearly further clarify what the WA means.

Anteayer

I'd suspect it's just legal clarifications - they were very firm on the WA all along and I don't really see much changing.

maynooth_rules

Hurrache wrote: »

I would not be a bit surprised that after the DUP finish with the chief whip, and when the cabinet finishes their meeting, there'll be no announcement and May will be on her way home without the support to even declare she has additional declarations.

Wouldn't this just be a copy of last December. The DUP scauld May like a bold school girl until she backs off.

Hurrache

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Wouldn't this just be a copy of last December. The DUP scauld May like a bold school girl until she backs off.

Exactly.

It'll be all down to how, and by whom, arbitration is defined.

Headshot

I heard on sky news that they are expecting to have documents outlining the agreement at 10-10:30pm

Hurrache

Seems reasonable
https://twitter.com/CaminoMortera/status/1105210118239674369?s=19

And this is what Danish PM has said
https://twitter.com/OleRyborg/status/1105214661761425408?s=19

Anteayer

Bear in mind too that the DUP's a history of Arleen and the 'friendly' parts of the party making it look like it's fine and when the rest of them get the facts all hell breaks loose and then they go back to No, No, Never!

An Ciarraioch

Headshot wrote: »

I heard on sky news that they are expecting to have documents outlining the agreement at 10-10:30pm

Looks like they'll literally be burning the midnight oil!

http://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1105213270619762688

Sierra Oscar

Hurrache wrote: »

I would not be a bit surprised that after the DUP finish with the chief whip, and when the cabinet finishes their meeting, there'll be no announcement and May will be on her way home without the support to even declare she has additional declarations.

I'd imagine May is looking for cross party support beyond the DUP at this stage. It really is her last chance to secure a deal so if they aren't happy she will be looking for support from remainers and soft Brexiteer's 'in the national interest'.

She will happily throw the DUP under the bus if needs be. It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be a general election whether there is a deal or no deal and she has already signalled that she will not lead her party into that election. She wants to leave a legacy of having secured a deal.

Calina

Whatever is agreed they need an extension.

So if it were me I would make the extension contingent on the agreement passing.

Hurrache

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'd imagine May is looking for cross party support beyond the DUP at this stage. It really is her last chance to secure a deal so if they aren't happy she will be looking for support from remainers and soft Brexiteer's 'in the national interest'.

She will happily throw the DUP under the bus if needs be. It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be a general election whether there is a deal or no deal and she has already signalled that she will not lead her party into that election. She wants to leave a legacy of having secured a deal.

We'd probably get a good idea some 10:30 or so. If the announcement and release of documents are not forthcoming we can guess there's a spanner in the works somewhere.

Water John

I'm waiting to see are you right this time Judeboy and will ROI be thrown under the bus?

An Ciarraioch

Hurrache wrote: »

We'd probably get a good idea some 10:30 or so. If the announcement and release of documents are not forthcoming we can guess there's a spanner in the works somewhere.

And Tony Connelly should have a good idea in the coming minutes.

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

Exactly.

It'll be all down to how, and by whom, arbitration is defined.

Arbitration is clearly defined in the WA, clear as crystal. Any changes to it, any at all is a reopening of the WA and a massive betrayal of the Irish people by FG and the EU who consistently stated that not a single comma would be changed.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1105217646239338499

Tony has heard our calls. Not all heroes wear a cape.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

I'm waiting to see are you right this time Judeboy and will ROI be thrown under the bus?

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1105180608408547328

FrancieBrady

Lord Lilley, looking a No Deal, invoking the Millennium Bug and Keep Calm We Are British line.

judeboy101

Water John wrote: »

I'm waiting to see are you right this time Judeboy and will ROI be thrown under the bus?

more like a frog in a slow boiling pot, we won't know we are cooked til its too late.

20silkcut

Water John wrote: »

I'm waiting to see are you right this time Judeboy and will ROI be thrown under the bus?

Throwing ROI under the bus throws the whole island and wider EU solidarity under the bus.

Throwing the DUP under the bus just throws the DUP under the bus.
Who cares about them???

Hurrache

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1105217646239338499

Tony has heard our calls. Not all heroes wear a cape.

He's a bit in the dark himself other than what we already know, the unilateral declaration and its implementation.

GM228

https://twitter.com/mattyfromle/status/1105218520177147906?s=19

I like the point made here:-

How come MPs are allowed to vote twice on the Brexit deal? How come they can vote twice, and more recently than the original offerings? Why are they allowed to change their mind, but y'know - the people that DID vote for/against it in the first place aren't allowed to?!

Lemming

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno. A snap GE which sees the Tories with a decisive margin, a shift to the right and a new PM like Boris would change the political landscape. In such a scenario, the EU would need everything bolted down.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Fine off you go lads. Back to no deal. No flights, no nothing. Come back to us when you're feeling sane again

I'm jumping ahead here as I'm playing catch-up (on page 537 out of 540), but just wanted to comment on the above; I think people may be over-estimating Bojo's capital within the Tory ranks. From what I recall being reported at the time of the 2018 Tory party conference, he would appear to have really p1ssed on his chips with his carry-on. The general attitude towards him by rank & file Tory party members was/is reportedly one of contempt.

So, I don't think it would ever get as far as LeinsterDub's scenario because Bojo isn't going to be PM; at least not the next successive Tory PM. Cold comfort when so much of the rest of the parliamentary ranks are filed with such .... calibre ...

Imreoir2

Seemingly this issue of a unilateral decleration by the UK is far more problematic than it seems. It is not merely the UK talking to itself, if the UK were to unilaterally declare, for example, that if envoked the backstop can only be temprary and as such will become void after 12 months, then unless the EU outright rejects this interpretation, the ratified treaty is held to follow that meaning.

The specific wording of the UK's unilateral statement could be very important.
Perhaps we could see a war of unilateral statements with each side making their own declarations and daring the other to call them on it before this thing is over.

Professor Moriarty

Lemming wrote: »

I'm jumping ahead here as I'm playing catch-up (on page 537 out of 540), but just wanted to comment on the above; I think people may be over-estimating Bojo's capital within the Tory ranks. From what I recall being reported at the time of the 2018 Tory party conference, he would appear to have really p1ssed on his chips with his carry-on. The general attitude towards him by rank & file Tory party members was/is reportedly one of contempt.

So, I don't think it would ever get as far as LeinsterDub's scenario because Bojo isn't going to be PM; at least not the next successive Tory PM. Cold comfort when so much of the rest of the parliamentary ranks are filed with such .... calibre ...

Well, frighteningly, Boris is the bookies' favourite to be next Tory leader.

prawnsambo

judeboy101 wrote: »

more like a frog in a slow boiling pot, we won't know we are cooked til its too late.

Ah, but you knew months ago. What's the analogy for that?

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Seemingly this issue of a unilateral decleration by the UK is far more problematic than it seems. It is not merely the UK talking to itself, if the UK were to unilaterally declare, for example, that if envoked the backstop can only be temprary and as such will become void after 12 months, then unless the EU outright rejects this interpretation, the ratified treaty is held to follow that meaning.

The specific wording of the UK's unilateral statement could be very important.
Perhaps we could see a war of unilateral statements with each side making their own declarations and daring the other to call them on it before this thing is over.

Also, all of this talk of how the UK can potentially get out of the backstop sounds well dodgy. They're practically flagging up and shouting from the rooftops that they intend quitting the temporary customs union, irrespective of anything to do with the Irish border.

Thargor

Looks like the pressure is getting to her: