Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Beechwoodspark

I’m pessimistic. Very much doubt these developments will pass the dup, or the erg’s tests.

So unless she can convince a load of Labour MPs this is all pretty pointless

And even if she does, Tories will go into meltdown and Govt falls?

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1105220691262169089

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hurrache wrote: »

He was never on a plane.

Is that confirmed?

Appears to be.

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1105219598423638016?s=19

Professor Moriarty

From Kevin Rudd, a former Australian PM:

I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union. This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks.

Fox, Boris and Davis know better though.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Seemingly this issue of a unilateral decleration by the UK is far more problematic than it seems. It is not merely the UK talking to itself, if the UK were to unilaterally declare, for example, that if envoked the backstop can only be temprary and as such will become void after 12 months, then unless the EU outright rejects this interpretation, the ratified treaty is held to follow that meaning.

The specific wording of the UK's unilateral statement could be very important.
Perhaps we could see a war of unilateral statements with each side making their own declarations and daring the other to call them on it before this thing is over.

I'm not sure you can play that sort of game with agreements. Unless the actual text of the agreement is so ambiguous as to allow such an interpretation, I can't see how that would work.

judeboy101

prawnsambo wrote: »

Ah, but you knew months ago. What's the analogy for that?

The child who pointed out the emperor was naked while everyone around him praised his new clothes

prawnsambo

judeboy101 wrote: »

The child who pointed out the emperor was naked while everyone around him praised his new clothes

And if the emperor is actually fully clothed?

Lemming

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, frighteningly, Boris is the bookies' favourite to be next Tory leader.

He was one of the media's darling; a lot like Nige. Of course, the bit to remember is that whilst Nige managed to sell an impressive amount of tabloid paper headlines, how many times was he ever elected to Westminster?

The bookies are basing their odds on perceived media populism. That doesn't mean the party members will vote for him; doubly so if he's viewed widely with contempt.

Spanish Eyes

The pity is that Labour MPs like Yvette Cooper and David Lammy have no voice.

If YC had been Labour Leader they would have won the election, she is some terrier and speaks a lot of sense, as does Lammy also. I am sure there are many more In Labour who are rocks of sense, but unfortunately, Momentum has the grip.

And Corbyn will be taken out in a box too. Things could have been so different.....

Laois_Man

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be a general election whether there is a deal or no deal and she has already signalled that she will not lead her party into that election. She wants to leave a legacy of having secured a deal.

I believe what she said was that she won’t lead the Tory’s into the next scheduled General Election....which is 2022

She’s a sneaky cow that one.....you have to examine carefully everything out of her mouth!

Imreoir2

It's strange that this unilateral declaration thing never came up till now, if what Sir Edward Leigh MP had to say is true, and it seems that he knows what he is taling about, then it could really be a silver bullet for the British. It would allow them, if they are so inclined, to essentially change the meaning of the WA unliaterally without the need to reopen the text and essentially daring the EU to refuse to ratify the treaty as a result.

The EU cannot say, “Well, you made this interpretative declaration. We don’t agree with it. We are going to carry on and ignore it, and we will impose this backstop on you for ever.” There is only one way out of it. I had better be careful in what I say, but I think I am right in saying that at the time of the ratification of the treaty, or within a reasonable time limit, the EU has to refuse to ratify the treaty, otherwise it is bound by it and that declaration is part of that treaty. As far as I am aware, there is absolutely no wiggle room. I know this issue is terribly important for the DUP. There is a lack of trust, and the DUP wants to shut down all possible wiggle room for the EU to get out of this. As far as I am aware, however, there is no way out other than for the EU to refuse to ratify the treaty.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-02-21/debates/0E0E3780-FB6B-4C3C-B64F-D110042F6B78/NorthernIrelandBackstopConditionalInterpretativeDeclaration

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure you can play that sort of game with agreements. Unless the actual text of the agreement is so ambiguous as to allow such an interpretation, I can't see how that would work.

The EU don't do ambiguity, it's entirely rules based so it would be a departure if something like this was left open to interpretation by someone down the line.

Professor Moriarty

Lemming wrote: »

He was one of the media's darling; a lot like Nige. Of course, the bit to remember is that whilst Nige managed to sell an impressive amount of tabloid paper headlines, how many times was he ever elected to Westminster?

The bookies are basing their odds on perceived media populism. That doesn't mean the party members will vote for him; doubly so if he's viewed widely with contempt.

Indeed. And he's favourite by a tiny margin - closely followed by Gove (God help us), Javid, Hunt and Raab. A motley crew. Other contenders are very long odds.

Kermit.de.frog

hmmmm, holding out on something?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105217962171088899

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

The EU don't do ambiguity, it's entirely rules based so it would be a departure if something like this was left open to interpretation by someone down the line.

Yes they do, they are masters at it. just look at the fudge over the recent Swiss treaty and the accession of Greece both of who have exemptions to the fOm despite having access to the Bloc

Imreoir2

This unilateral declaration is going to be important, while the UK could just throw a hail mary and put in a full on Brexiteer interperation and hope the EU lets them off with it, in reality the wording of this declaration is probably the subject of intense discussion to make sure the EU/Ireland can accept it.

It could be that the UK will get its declaration tonight without objection from the EU, just to see if that is enough to get the deal over the line in the commons tomorrow, if not then it does not matter, if yes then the EU could presumablly make a unilateral "unless and untill" declaration of its own to take the sting out of whatever the UK come out with.

Either way, we need to be very carefull of whatever the UK declaration says, this is the best chance the UK has to get the EU to throw us under the bus at this stage if they really wanted to push it in that direction.

WoollyRedHat

Anyone else have a live stream of Parliament? Place is very busy for nearing 10pm. Liddingtons lookout.

An Ciarraioch

All reheating old ideas, according to the Guardian live feed at 21:38

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/11/brexit-latest-news-vote-tuesday-tories-suspect-may-could-pull-tuesdays-key-vote-after-talks-fail-to-deliver-progress-politics-live

Enzokk

I am sure there was discussions earlier today in the HoC about the vote tomorrow and actually tabling it this evening and allowing enough time for amendments as well.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1105137800662401024

So all the while there is a deadline for May to get to tonight as well to make the needed amendments for the vote tomorrow and also to allow time for MPs to make amendments to the Govt amendment.

Spanish Eyes

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This unilateral declaration is going to be important, while the UK could just throw a hail mary and put in a full on Brexiteer interperation and hope the EU lets them off with it, in reality the wording of this declaration is probably the subject of intense discussion to make sure the EU/Ireland can accept it.

It could be that the UK will get its declaration tonight without objection from the EU, just to see if that is enough to get the deal over the line in the commons tomorrow, if not then it does not matter, if yes then the EU could presumablly make a unilateral "unless and untill" declaration of its own to take the sting out of whatever the UK come out with.

Either way, we need to be very carefull of whatever the UK declaration says, this is the best chance the UK has to get the EU to throw us under the bus at this stage if they really wanted to push it in that direction.

I truly hope it will be a legalistic fudge of some sort.

But I agree with you. Feeling a bit nervous of buses tonight. The irony of that when you think about it.

But hopefully EU will back us to the hilt. If not, well I don't know how that kind of humiliation from the UK will work here at all.

But I remain hopeful.

Kermit.de.frog

Liddington speaking now.

Itssoeasy

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Anyone else have a live stream of Parliament? Place is very busy for nearing 10pm. Liddingtons lookout.

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Commons

Lemming

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. And he's favourite by a tiny margin - closely followed by Gove (God help us), Javid, Hunt and Raab. A motley crew. Other contenders are very long odds.

As I alluded to earlier; with such a fine list of contenders like that, it's cold comfort that Bojo is the proverbial joker in the pack. That said, of those, only Javid and Raab might have any standing within the Tory ranks (and it's the Tory ranks, not the general public that matter here) although they too would appear to be quickly running out of capital with the general incompetence on display. Bojo & Gove went down together, and Hunt is despised with his only saving grace being that Grayling sits on the cabinet. It's a low bar ....

Hurrache

Connelly's analysis out, the unilateral declaration is going to be a bitch.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1105225621062541312?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

Talks still ongoing says Liddington(!)

Beechwoodspark

Nothing new.

Won’t satisfy the erg.

No dice tomorrow so

listermint

Bombardier compulsory redundancies in the North

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/bombardier-seeking-compulsory-redundancies-at-sites-in-north-1.3822230

Flex

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This unilateral declaration is going to be important, while the UK could just throw a hail mary and put in a full on Brexiteer interperation and hope the EU lets them off with it, in reality the wording of this declaration is probably the subject of intense discussion to make sure the EU/Ireland can accept it.

It could be that the UK will get its declaration tonight without objection from the EU, just to see if that is enough to get the deal over the line in the commons tomorrow, if not then it does not matter, if yes then the EU could presumablly make a unilateral "unless and untill" declaration of its own to take the sting out of whatever the UK come out with.

Either way, we need to be very carefull of whatever the UK declaration says, this is the best chance the UK has to get the EU to throw us under the bus at this stage if they really wanted to push it in that direction.

I agree with you. The UK are making it completely clear their intention is to remove or neuter the backstop so they can use the border and threaten the EU via Ireland in future negotiations. They are acting in bad faith here; we can’t allow them any wiggle room or anything for the purpose of helping them pass this in the HOC. Barnier’s tweet saying that Britain can leave the backstop so long as it applies to Northern Ireland until an alternate solution is found is all that should be offered as it demonstrates that the EU has no intention of ‘trapping’ the UK in the backstop. That’s all they need and all that should be offered

If there is any such declaration or whatever out of tonight I’ll be contacting TDs in my constituency urging them to veto it as the British government is completely untrustworthy and is acting against us (which they’re being very open about)

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's strange that this unilateral declaration thing never came up till now, if what Sir Edward Leigh MP had to say is true, and it seems that he knows what he is taling about, then it could really be a silver bullet for the British. It would allow them, if they are so inclined, to essentially change the meaning of the WA unliaterally without the need to reopen the text and essentially daring the EU to refuse to ratify the treaty as a result.



https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-02-21/debates/0E0E3780-FB6B-4C3C-B64F-D110042F6B78/NorthernIrelandBackstopConditionalInterpretativeDeclaration

The thing is that the EuCo has already ratified the agreement. So unless it's to be redrafted, this 'declaration' is not part of the agreement. It also has to get through the EuroParl and that could be even trickier if there's perfidy about.

Spanish Eyes

Hurrache wrote: »

Connelly's analysis out, the unilateral declaration is going to be a bitch.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1105225621062541312?s=19

Sorry now, but I have little faith in UK government at the moment.

Have we been thrown under a bus to guffaws from the Brexiteers in HoC or am I just over thinking this?