Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1105241703655620608

Headshot

What time is the vote for the May's deal tomorrow?

gooch2k9

Mr. Selmayr looked very pleased as they were walking off.

I was glad reporters didn't get to probe too much there.

Strazdas

Mainly smoke and mirrors from May. She's using vague and deceptive language to disguise that not a hell of a lot actually happened tonight.

kingchess

It seems May managed to move a few deck-chairs around on the deck of the Titanic,BUT it will not change the outcome?

Beechwoodspark

So - next big question is how long will the EU allow for the extension?

gooch2k9

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote for the May's deal tomorrow?

It'll be after 7pm. They were saying it may be slightly later than usual due to Cox having to make his statement.

Hurrache

listermint wrote: »

And talking down other countries systems openly as you sit beside them. Well .... Genius.

Wasn't that just bizarre! Leading off with that when the future relationship still has to be negotiated.

The narrative that legal changes have been made to the WA seems to be taking legs with some people. The Sky News anchor leads off with it but then corrected by their Euro guy.

PropJoe10

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote for the May's deal tomorrow?

There'll likely be a full date of debate tomorrow in the Commons, with a vote at about 7-8pm.

Enzokk

Seems like, from the press conference, that there will be arbitration if one party feels the other is not acting in good faith and if this arbitration agrees then the party can back out of the agreement.

But how will the UK prove the EU is not acting in good faith on the first day and they trigger this arbitration?

A Dub in Glasgo

judeboy101 wrote: »

"unless and until" has been countered by "best endevours" , big change big big change

Give up on the 'we are being shafted in 1, 2, 3.... 100, 101.... 900' stance. The WA has not been changed

Dub.

Listening to Rees Mogg on newsnight i reckon the ERG and DUP will vote for this deal tomorrow.

Strazdas

kingchess wrote: »

It seems May managed to move a few deck-chairs around on the deck of the Titanic,BUT it will not change the outcome?

Correct : the deal being passed tomorrow night would actually be a shocker.

Nobody can predict what this will do the vote numbers though, that's up in the air.

jester77

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So - next big question is how long will the EU allow for the extension?

Unless they vote for the agreement, then taking Junkers stance, there doesn't seem any point in an extension. It looking like tomorrows vote is deal or no deal.

VinLieger

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So - next big question is how long will the EU allow for the extension?

Im not sure its on the table any more Juncker was clear about no 3rd chances, does that include an extension?

Its always been said to approve one there needs to be visible potential for progress but if anything today has reinforced that is absolutely impossible.

Beechwoodspark

Dub. wrote: »

Listening to Rees Mogg on newsnight i reckon the ERG and DUP will vote for this deal tomorrow.

Really!? What’s he saying?

Laois_Man

Strazdas wrote: »

Mainly smoke and mirrors from May. She's using vague and deceptive language to disguise that not a hell of a lot actually happened tonight.

We all know how untrustworthy/dishonest she is....but tonight has been the most blatant display of it we have seen yet!

ancapailldorcha

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Twitter, boards.ie and popcorn. Cant wait

Enough of these comments please.

Donald Trump

liamtech wrote: »

This sounds like nonsense -

We have an insurance policy - which we dont want to use

And if we have to use it, we will have an alternative at that point - and if the EU insist the UK use it we can get arbitration to stop it.. and we can leave

Iv studied political science, and i think donald trump could explain this better

I can't explain it when I don't understand who you are referring to with "we". The UK?

Enzokk

Theresa May is in a tight spot either way. She declared that she will seek to reopen the WA and change the backstop when in fact none of this has happened tonight. This will give those MPs a chance to vote against it as it is the same deal with clarifications only and they rejected it before.

As for an extension, if May survives tomorrow and doesn't resign then she may look to extend until after the EU elections. This will be a hard cliff edge as there will be no going back to the EU if the UK hasn't run an election and then the choice will be her deal or no-deal. I think Labour would probably abstain at that point as they will not vote for her deal and will not vote against it to allow no-deal to happen. There will not be enough votes against her in her own party to defeat it either so she will finally win the vote by holding not just the UK ransom to no-deal but the whole of the EU. She would also have gambled with peace in NI to achieve her aim.

Imreoir2

jester77 wrote: »

Unless they vote for the agreement, then taking Junkers stance, there doesn't seem any point in an extension. It looking like tomorrows vote is deal or no deal.

Of course there is a point to an extension, the whole process has largely been a series of kicks to the proverbial can, why not just keep doing that? Six months here, two years there, get past the next UK general election and hey presto you have a new national passtime, delaying Brexit (but this time is the last time, promise).

Fann Linn

No press conference or announcement from Irish govt. Can I take it so we were shafted?

bilston

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Really!? What’s he saying?

Jon Craig saying that the ERG and DUP will study the wording overnight and then decide.

Spanish Eyes

There are no real improvements here at all for the hardliners.

But maybe TM's tactic of WA or No Deal might just work given that it appears there will be nothing more in the tank i.e. extensions etc.. Will be an interesting evening tomorrow. Great for nerds!

I fear that the vote will not get through. If that is the result, then it's No Deal isn't it?

Awful prospect for everyone.

Hurrache

Corbyn said it should be rejected.

dresden8

If the Brits get an extension and have to run euto elections what happens to our extra seats?

axer

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If I remember correctly Invoking A50 required a vote in Parliament, but revoking it doesn't as it doesn't change the status quo.

That would be the biggest revenge IMV. Go Theresa, let the nutjobs take over and head up to the Alps for a long walk.

From what I know the leaving date is already hard set in UK legislation. Didn't they even include it in the title of that legislation? If it is in UK legislation then it requires a vote in parliament which means the default is no deal exit unless there is a positive vote on something that changes that.

Professor Moriarty

It would seem that the word 'reduce' in "reduce the risk" is going to cause a lot of trouble when the ERG and DUP begin to check it out.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

they'll never unilaterally decide to leave the WA/Backstop until there's a permanent deal in place, that would be a "no deal" scenario, and would scupper the country.

Nothing has changed.

bilston

The issue for the ERG might be the use of the word "reducing" rather than "removing" when it comes to describing the risk of Britain getting stuck in a backstop indefinitely.

At least according to Sky.