Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Dub.

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Really!? What’s he saying?

Not a lot, i`m just reading between the lines. He did say that his vote will depend on which way the DUP is voting.

Itssoeasy

I caught some of the press conference and junker looked like a guy in control while Theresa May looked tired and unhappy. Sky news were very clear to point out that "not one word of the withdrawal agreement has changed" so how exactly can they claim they have gotten legally binding changes to the backstop if the wording of the backstop in the WA hasnt had a comma or full stop changed ?

Professor Moriarty

Fann Linn wrote: »

No press conference or announcement from Irish govt. Can I take it so we were shafted?

Au contraire, I think. Keeping heads down and mouths shut so as not to feed the DUP and ERG when they start their blame game.

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted.

Strazdas

Gina Miller saying on Newsnight that the WA is a "disaster". People are nearly forgetting that many Remainers are opposed to the agreement, never mind Leavers.

WoollyRedHat

So basically, if UK decided EU were acting in bad faith, it could then unilaterally exit the backstop, what that essentially means is a no deal Brexit but instead of being in March 2019 it will be just be later on that they decide to torpedo . Likewise if EU decided the UK was acting in bad faith,they could pull out of negotiations and therefore by default this too would lead to a no deal Brexit. Arbitration was always on the table if either party disputed the others position, although we know who is the more likely party to play a game of political masquerading.

Nothing has changed at all.

Spanish Eyes

axer wrote: »

From what I know the leaving date is already hard set in UK legislation. Didn't they even include it in the title of that legislation? If it is in UK legislation then it requires a vote in parliament which means the default is no deal exit unless there is a positive vote on something that changes that.

You could be right, I was only going on what I myself interpreted at the time.

Itssoeasy

Fann Linn wrote: »

No press conference or announcement from Irish govt. Can I take it so we were shafted?

No. Are the other 27 having press conferences ? Junker was the EUs repsonse.

liamtech

Corbyn against it - sky news

Look i honestly dont see what is going on very clearly at all

Take 'We' as the UK in this case

We have an insurance policy in the form of a back stop

We dont want to use it, but its wise to have it

If we have to use it, we wont, because we will have something better at that point..

If the EU say we have to use it, we can challenge this in arbitration



And the EU position - nothing has change in the WA

This is surely not gonna pass

L1011

dresden8 wrote: »

If the Brits get an extension and have to run euto elections what happens to our extra seats?

Last MEP elected in South and Dublin are furloughed until they leave, if ever.

FrancieBrady

Why are the cabinet still in meeting if Leo has agreed to the deal?

LuckyLloyd

Fann Linn wrote: »

No press conference or announcement from Irish govt. Can I take it so we were shafted?

We're good, no shaft from what I can see. We're saying nothing so as to not annoy the DUP.

Imreoir2

Fann Linn wrote: »

No press conference or announcement from Irish govt. Can I take it so we were shafted?

No, you can't. There has been no change to anything and the only thing that had a chance of making a change, the UK's unilateral declaration is nothing but useless hot air from TM's comments during the press conference.

The Irish government could hold a press conference to confim what we already know, is, nothing to see here, but that is not going to help the commons to hold their nose and vote for the WA so why make life harder?

Itssoeasy

L1011 wrote: »

Last MEP elected in South and Dublin are furloughed until they leave, if ever.

That's a mess of a situation and very unfair on whoever that person will be come May.

Fann Linn

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why are the cabinet still in meeting if Leo has agreed to the deal?

That's what I cannot underatand. No announcement and yet Leo has agreed to it.

prawnsambo

In case it wasn't posted before, here's the declaration.

Enzokk

I have a couple of tweets here that interprets what has happened;

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1105241945138438144

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105243673485287425

It seems they think nothing has changed at all tonight.

Then we have this from the unilateral declaration.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1105243210388029441

So basically if the UK feels that during the negotiations there is no way out they can just walk away. But they will still have their obligations to the GFA to think about and they will not have a free trade agreement with the EU at that stage. So the chances of this happening without blowing the economy up at that stage, none.

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why are the cabinet still in meeting if Leo has agreed to the deal?

They are probably looking at the documents that have come from the meeting tonight and may also be getting legal advice just like others are getting.

dresden8

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why are the cabinet still in meeting if Leo has agreed to the deal?

To keep them away from the cameras.

SimonTemplar

Both the BBC and RTE websites have headlines saying that legally binding changes have been agreed. I think that is misleading. The WA has not changed one bit. 'Legally binding assurances' is more accurate.

Hurrache

The text on these pages from the documents released have these interesting paragraphs.
https://twitter.com/timoconnorbl/status/1105242443375673344?s=19

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

They are probably looking at the documents that have come from the meeting tonight and may also be getting legal advice just like others are getting.

But they have already agreed.

liamtech

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Both the BBC and RTE websites have headlines saying that legally binding changes have been agreed. I think that is misleading. The WA has not changed one bit. 'Legally binding assurances' is more accurate.

Its waffle to TRY and get the ERG and the HOC in general to pass the deal

Will it be enough

Spanish Eyes

Tomorrow's vote will be very interesting.

Anyone guess what the next move is if WA is voted down (again).

Listening to Juncker earlier, the gate is closed now.

tuxy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Tomorrow's vote will be very interesting.

Anyone guess what the next move is if WA is voted down (again).

Listening to Juncker earlier, the gate is closed now.

Vote to avoid no deal will win on the 13th then it's all about how long should they ask for an extension and what will the EU27 agree on.

Beechwoodspark

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Tomorrow's vote will be very interesting.

Anyone guess what the next move is if WA is voted down (again).

Listening to Juncker earlier, the gate is closed now.

They’ll vote the deal down tomorr

On wed they’ll vote either no deal or extension

On Thur they’ll vote on how long an extension they’d prefer

Then may will go back over to see her good buddy Jean Claude and ask (beg) for an extension and EU will have all the cards.

Kermit.de.frog

Kevin Doyle's tweet has just been mentioned in the Commons...

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1105235128689807362

Sierra Oscar

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Both the BBC and RTE websites have headlines saying that legally binding changes have been agreed. I think that is misleading. The WA has not changed one bit. 'Legally binding assurances' is more accurate.

The EU will be OK with the media spreading the fantasy that the UK has secured legally binding changes if it helps pass the House of Commons vote tomorrow. The facts are pretty clear regardless of the media commentary - the UK haven't secured any legally binding changes.

I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.

PropJoe10

As I see it, the only way the WA will pass tomorrow is if enough MPs get freaked out about No Deal and decide to back any deal at all that rules that out. So May's strategy to push this as close to the deadline as possible might in fact work. I don't think that's what'll happen, but you never know.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Anyone guess what the next move is if WA is voted down (again).

Listening to the UK Parliament, and the waffle from the Deputy Prime Minister. Not a chance it passes.

Extension or full Brexit is on the cards. Honestly, I don;t think anything is to be gained from the extension (unless it just goes on for years) as nothing is gonna change before the next MEP voting.