Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

As far as I can make out, to coin a phrase, "nothing has changed".

It's the assurances that have been offered all along which have been taken up and the body of the Withdrawal Agreement remains intact.

The DUP for all their many faults aren't usually slow to figure out when they're being schmoozed so I fully expect they will reject this as insufficient. I'm sure Sammy Wilson is looking forward to his many media appearances tomorrow. The ERG will back up the DUP and reject it. May will lose heavily again, although she might get some improved numbers from the last fiasco of a vote.

Westminster won't endorse No Deal either so an extension will be the next step.

tuxy

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.

And a big show of strength from the EU that all members states are united.
If the UK is hell bent on leaving they will and the remaining states will need reassurance that the EU has their best interest at heart.

axer

Even thr unilateral declaration says they can leave if the EU is not acting in good faith but the gfa must be respected and there cannot be a hard border in Ireland. Sounds like a border in the Irish sea still then.

Kermit.de.frog

I think it will pass just about.

Listening to Mogg earlier and he seemed sanguine enough. Also there is a real sense of fatigue now working it's healthy process from all the interviews I have seen.

54and56

bilston wrote: »

The issue for the ERG might be the use of the word "reducing" rather than "removing" when it comes to describing the risk of Britain getting stuck in a backstop indefinitely.

At least according to Sky.

HTF did JRM subject his ERG group to the will of the DUP? Does he miss being dominated in Eton or what?

prawnsambo

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The EU will be OK with the media spreading the fantasy that the UK has secured legally binding changes if it helps pass the House of Commons vote tomorrow. The facts are pretty clear regardless of the media commentary - the UK haven't secured any legally binding changes.

I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.

It would open up an appalling vista for the EU if they were seen to even slightly dump on a member in favour of a member leaving. Especially in the circumstances of the GFA which the EU are heavily involved in. It would be the end of the EU as a bloc.

Spanish Eyes

If the vote fails tomorrow, I understand that an extension would only be granted for something useful. I can't think of a better word, but I am sure you understand.

Kicking the can is not a reason for an extension is it?

So I still wonder. And EU27 will have to approve an extension also, as I understand it anyway.

bilston

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Hi

HTF did JRM subject his ERG group to the will of the DUP? Does he miss being dominated in Eton or what?

The DUP are the ERG's useful idiots. They aren't subject to their will at all.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

So basically if the UK feels that during the negotiations there is no way out they can just walk away.

Not quite, it would require that the UK is able to prove that there is no posibility of there being an agreement being reached and that the process has broken down. According to the declaration, the UK have their right to unilaterally walk away from the backstop, unless the EU says they are happy to keep working on an agreement.

The UK has essentially declared, and this will form a legally binding part of the treaty, that for as long as the EU is willing to talk about a future relatioship, the UK the be bound by the backstop.

We wanted the backstop to be applicable "unless and untill" a suitable replacement is found. If ratified the treaty will provide that the backstop will apply for as long as the EU remains engaged in talks with the UK to find a suitable replacement for the backstop. That is as good as "unless and untill" for me.

bilston

Tory Brexiteer Mike Penning has said he will support the govt now.

1 down, 115 to go...

diggerdigger

What is this talk of the text of a UK unilateral statement? Appeasement of DUP - they don't seem to know about it. We gave support early doors.

54and56

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.

Which is exactly why Leo et al should keep absolutely sthumm (spelling?) about this three card shuffle. Don't gloat, don't protest, just say the backstop remains the backstop and the EU U27 are united.

prawnsambo

I think this sums it up.

54and56

bilston wrote: »

The DUP are the ERG's useful idiots. They aren't subject to their will at all.

On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

Ben D Bus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If the vote fails tomorrow, I understand that an extension would only be granted for something useful. I can't think of a better word, but I am sure you understand.

Kicking the can is not a reason for an extension is it?

So I still wonder. And EU27 will have to approve an extension also, as I understand it anyway.

As a continuing act of good will I'm sure they'll be given a couple of extra weeks to get their house in order (of sorts). The EU 27 will be able to benefit from same.

Spanish Eyes

Time for the leaba. Thank you all for your insights and knowledge.

We are living through history, if that's any consolation.

Hurrache

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

The DUP may take the ladder down though. The recent polls in the north and input from businesses up there have landed punches on them and this could well be their out.

JRM is gutless using the DUP.

Jimjay

Junker said “no 3rd chance. Its this deal or no brexit”. That says to me they will allow an extension so a second ref can be run. If the deal is rejected and a no deal is rejected the only option is to cancel brexit.

ancapailldorcha

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

Dub.

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

Useful for him to blame ERG capitulation on the DUP.

Sierra Oscar

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

May is claiming that she has but she hasn't really achieved anything other than some 'assurances'.

Fann Linn

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

Her 'changes' are getting torn apart on the Sky News Press review as we speak.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

Not really but it might be enough to give the DUP and ERG an honourable discharge. It's not legally binding but it sounds legally binding. Cox's opinion tomorrow will be pivotal.

Headshot

There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

Professor Moriarty

Headshot wrote: »

There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

Dunno if parliament will swallow that though.

SimonTemplar

If the deal fails tomorrow, I can't see how May can possibility continue to be PM.

Jimjay

Headshot wrote: »

There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

Of course they will extend it. If this deal is not passed and then no deal is ruled out then the only option is to cancel brexit or run a second referendum. Junker said its this deal or no brexit

rizzodun

Sky News going full on Fox News with the two eejits on Press Preview.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not really but it might be enough to give the DUP and ERG an honourable discharge. It's not legally binding but it sounds legally binding. Cox's opinion tomorrow will be pivotal.

As lady on SKY said, Cox has pinned his reputation on getting a time limit. Wouldn't be too hopeful on him being positive.

Professor Moriarty

rizzodun wrote: »

Sky News going full on Fox News with the two eejits on Press Preview.

Stig Abell is a very intelligent man.