Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

diggerdigger

Hurrache wrote: »

JRM is gutless using the DUP.

Whatever about the DUP and JRM, they are pure victims of circumstances.

I blame the makers of spitting image. A whole generation in the UK grew up watching caricature politicians on TV, and now subconsciously a whole country thinks they have to vote for the grinning idiot/buffoon/ gammon/Tim Nice but dim.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As lady on SKY said, Cox has pinned his reputation on getting a time limit. Wouldn't be too hopeful on him being positive.

Exactly. As was said in the HoC, he'll be marking his own homework tomorrow.

Hurrache

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

That's her achievement I think. I caught a bit of Clare Byrne and a leaver said he was happy to see these changes.

Donald Trump

Headshot wrote: »

There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

Why give them any extension now? This deal or else cancel Brexit or exit with no deal. Choice between the 3 and that shouldn't change regardless of how long they have to think about it. Time for them to make up their minds and $$$$ or get off the pot

Sierra Oscar

Jimjay wrote: »

Of course they will extend it. If this deal is not passed and then no deal is ruled out then the only option is to cancel brexit or run a second referendum. Junker said its this deal or no brexit

Indeed and the threat of a second referendum is what might spook the ERG into accepting this deal. It's a watered down Brexit or the very real possibility of no Brexit at all if its put to a second referendum.

GM228

Headshot wrote: »

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

EU: We will only give you two years extension, no more, no less. Oh and don't forget to run the salt on wounds exercise (aka the European elections).

PropJoe10

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

That'll all have changed tomorrow once they've had a chance to digest the fact that she's achieved feck all. She looked absolutely defeated in that press conference earlier.

Imreoir2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

Yes and no, according to the Unilateral Declaration the UK does actually now have the right to unilaterally walk away from the backstop if the talks break down and no future agreement is possible.

In theory the UK got what they want, but in reality what they wanted is largely meaningless. They don't have cart blanche to walk away, it is conditioned on talks breaking down which means that the EU can prevent the UK from walking away away from the backstop simply by being available to engage in talks about a future relationship.

Instead of a backstop applying unless and untill an agreement is reached, the backstop applies unless and untill the EU decides to walk away from talks with the UK on the future relationship. In practice the backstop is as solid as ever.

Itssoeasy

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

That's like a turkey saying they trust Bernard Mathews to do right by them.

Christy42

PropJoe10 wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

That'll all have changed tomorrow once they've had a chance to digest the fact that she's achieved feck all. She looked absolutely defeated in that press conference earlier.

It will suit them to pretend. Vote through her deal and claim victory over the huns. Have a photo op in front of a few spitfires and claim everything is better when there are less jobs in the country (but possibly not a complete crash so you can get away with the lies).

Still we can avoid a head border and the UK can't decide to stick one up whenever it wants as the EU can always have someone around " available for negotiations ". A good day for Ireland if it gets through.

diggerdigger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. As was said in the HoC, he'll be marking his own homework tomorrow.

I think (hope) tomorrow is a day that some of the yahoo's can take some shaky, seeking step back from their stupid grandstanding.

Kermit.de.frog

Fascinating theatrics this evening.

I suspect she has done just enough to get this passed tomorrow.

Goodnight.

Professor Moriarty

diggerdigger wrote: »

I think (hope) tomorrow is a day that some of the yahoo's can take some shaky, seeking step back from their stupid grandstanding.

Some might, but it's still very likely that she'll be defeated anyway.

10000maniacs

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think it will pass just about.

Listening to Mogg earlier and he seemed sanguine enough. Also there is a real sense of fatigue now working it's healthy process from all the interviews I have seen.

It won't be 220 this time, but I'm afraid it will be rejected again by a substantial amount. You have to realise that the issues around the backstop were just a convenient excuse for opposition to the deal.

Laois_Man

"The Father of Brexit" (Fox News' description) has had his say:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1105239833348399106

munsterlegend

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

joe40

Whatever happens tomorrow will be an interesting day.
Just a wee word of thanks to the many knowledgeable contributors on this thread.
It is a great place for a good understanding of the many twists and turns in this cluster**** that is Brexit.

FrancieBrady

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

It will have to be a complete climbdown though. The backstop remains in it's entirety.

backspin.

Over the course of its history the DUP has defaulted to NO when the pressure comes on. I'm expecting nothing different here.

Cosmo Kramer

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

If they cave now the next British government, that doesn't rely on them for votes, will solve the border problem by putting it in the Irish Sea at the first possible opportunity. Surely, if they have any small amount of common sense, they can see that.

munsterlegend

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It will have to be a complete climbdown though. The backstop remains in it's entirety.

Yeah but they know a no deal would be catastrophic. I was expecting outright rejection but far from it. The fact JRM said he will be guided by DUP really puts the squeeze on too. They have been backtracking for the last couple of weeks from no backstop to temporary backstop. I think they might have expected a deal to go over their heads with labour support in the national interest but now they are snookered I think.

Jim2007

Imreoir2 wrote: »

... which means that the EU can prevent the UK from walking away away from the backstop simply by being available to engage in talks about a future relationship.

A job for some junior, just listen to them, say no and round and round the loop goes.

Sierra Oscar

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah but they know a no deal would be catastrophic. I was expecting outright rejection but far from it. The fact JRM said he will be guided by DUP really puts the squeeze on too. They have been backtracking for the last couple of weeks from no backstop to temporary backstop. I think they might have expected a deal to go over their heads with labour support in the national interest but now they are snookered I think.

I reckon you're fairly spot on regarding the DUP thinking a deal would have passed with Labour backing.

At the end of the day the DUP know that a hard Brexit will be a disaster for Northern Ireland which could lead to the fragmentation of the UK and the bringing about of a United Ireland in the not too distant future. I don't think they ever thought it would get this down to the wire.

Laois_Man

SimonTemplar wrote: »

If the deal fails tomorrow, I can't see how May can possibility continue to be PM.

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

Cosmo Kramer

A DUP Spokesperson wrote:

"We will measure this latest text against the Brady amendment, and the commitments made by the Prime Minister on 29 January.”

It won't stack up well on those measurements...

Cosmo Kramer

Laois_Man wrote: »

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

In theory, no. However, in practice once enough of her MPs turn on her she'll be gone within hours.

joe40

What about labour leave supporters, is there any chance they will support the WA agreement tomorrow in an effort to stop extension and possible new vote.
I wonder will leave supporters be spooked about letting brexit slip away on them if tomorrow vote is lost

Hurrache

Laois_Man wrote: »

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

That's an internal Tory thing, the opposition can still go for a no confidence vote.

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I reckon you're fairly spot on regarding the DUP thinking a deal would have passed with Labour backing.

At the end of the day the DUP know that a hard Brexit will be a disaster for Northern Ireland which could lead to the fragmentation of the UK and the bringing about of a United Ireland in the not too distant future. I don't think they ever thought it would get this down to the wire.

The DUP assumed that the referendum would not pass and then that the British would make a pragmatic deal. They are accustomed to beating the Lambeg drum and having the British hold them back, not so in this case.

Laois_Man

Hurrache wrote: »

That's an internal Tory thing, the opposition can still go for a no confidence vote.

They already did - and they lost
No reason to think it would be any different now