Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Cosmo Kramer

DUP in a very tight spot here. If they vote for the deal, they must know that they'll be screwed over as soon as they are out of power. Once their votes don't matter it will be a border in the Irish Sea.

If they vote against they risk no deal brexit or no Brexit. Although they'll never admit it I suspect no Brexit looks like quite an appealing option to them now, but they would never be able to publicly support it ahead of any future vote.

They've backed themselves right into a corner on Brexit.

volchitsa

Enzokk wrote: »

It seems that the climbdown has started. Let's remember that David Davis was advocating that the UK do nothing until the last minute and the EU would concede everything the UK wanted. Seems he has blinked.

I can't understand this. How could they have thought the EU was going to collapse at the last minute, and if they genuinely did think that, why are they changing now? It's not actually the last minute. Yet.

But basically, does anyone else think they can never have seriously imagined that would happen in the first place? Although that leaves me entirely unable to explain WTF they thought they were achieving by pretending to think it.

My reading of it, going by EU policy and negotiating capacities with other countries, was that there was never going to be an EU climbdown. Why would the ERG and the DUP have imagined otherwise?

Kiith

Why would the EU trust Britain to negotiate in good faith when they decide to pull out and claim bad faith by the EU? They've shown nothing but contempt for any agreement so far. From what i read, this allows them to pull out of the backstop, as long as they comply with the GFA. They've already shown that the GFA will take a backseat to their demands, so why would this change? Is this not giving Britain an out?

Hopefully i'm missing something.

Fionn1952

Funny enough, even though there was a Remain majority in NI, there was a very large Leave minority. No Brexit at all could potentially leave that hefty portion of the electorate open to being tempted to vote DUP.

I don't reckon they're clever enough to have intentionally engineered that, but they're certainly sly enough to take advantage should the opportunity present itself to be the party the Leave vote of NI rallies behind.

Cryptopagan

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Uh oh

https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1105385297288851456

They have all day. I wouldn't expect the DUP to be the first ones to shift their position from no to yes. They aren't rejecting it out of hand. That's about as positive as you could expect from the DUP.

Nothing has really changed, and the DUP must know that, and yet they aren't dismissing it.

Enzokk

Okay, so for me it seems we are exactly where we were in January before they rejected the deal. The same provisions apply to the same agreement that has only been clarified for the UK. There has been no changes to the backstop nor has there been any meaningful discussions to change the deal May brought back in November.

But the funniest thing is we are starting to see MPs back down on not backing the deal they despised less than 2 months ago. It is quite a sight to see.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1105391205381218305

I still don't think the deal will get through tonight, but it will be close and it will give May the push to put it to another vote in a few weeks again to try and get it through or to at least ask for an extension to get it through. It could also turn out horribly for her though if the AG determines that not much has changed and if he is truly independent as she asserted last night. Then MPs that voted against the same deal will have to somehow square their circles and contort voting for the same deal they rejected.

Cryptopagan

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Funny enough, even though there was a Remain majority in NI, there was a very large Leave minority. No Brexit at all could potentially leave that hefty portion of the electorate open to being tempted to vote DUP.

I don't reckon they're clever enough to have intentionally engineered that, but they're certainly sly enough to take advantage should the opportunity present itself to be the party the Leave vote of NI rallies behind.

Plenty of people who voted leave in NI don't actually want a hard Brexit at all, since they know it's bad for them and their livelihood. I don't think there'd be a significant backlash in the North if Brexit was abandoned.

RobMc59

I don't want May's deal to succeed and I'm disappointed and surprised the EU have given ground to her-the DUP seem happier with what's proposed and nobody from the EU are challenging May's assertion she's won changes -that's shocking.

kalych

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not quite, as I read things.

If the UK thinks that's what's happening, they can refer the matter to the arbitration procedure which the WA provides for, and if the arbitrators agree that "yes, the EU is acting in bad faith", then the UK holds itself free to walk. But they don't claim to be able to walk simply because no agreement can been reached; only if no agreement can be reached because of bad faith on the part of the EU.

Through all of this white noise of misinformation around the deal, do we have clarity on who the "arbiters" are? I can't find this anywhere. Seems like a key piece of the puzzle.

prawnsambo

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

DUP in a very tight spot here. If they vote for the deal, they must know that they'll be screwed over as soon as they are out of power. Once their votes don't matter it will be a border in the Irish Sea.

If they vote against they risk no deal brexit or no Brexit. Although they'll never admit it I suspect no Brexit looks like quite an appealing option to them now, but they would never be able to publicly support it ahead of any future vote.

They've backed themselves right into a corner on Brexit.

To be fair, they've all backed themselves into a corner with brexit. Because there's no brexit that can stand up to the wild promises that were made by the leave side in the referendum. So Theresa May has painted herself into a corner with red lines, the DUP have joined her with a few more of their own and the rest of the Tory party are backed into a corner by the ERG who are threatening all kinds of drastic ends to the party if they don't get their way. But the ERG have also painted themselves into a corner by being so intransigent as to not have any way out either. The Labour party have also backed themselves into a corner, but they've put a fence on it and are sitting on it and demanding that the government get them off it.

farmchoice

Kiith wrote: »

Why would the EU trust Britain to negotiate in good faith when they decide to pull out and claim bad faith by the EU? They've shown nothing but contempt for any agreement so far. From what i read, this allows them to pull out of the backstop, as long as they comply with the GFA. They've already shown that the GFA will take a backseat to their demands, so why would this change? Is this not giving Britain an out?

Hopefully i'm missing something.

well you cant trust them thats for sure, the bit i have highlighted is not quite right. this does not allow them to exit the backstop, at best after a lot of hoops it allows them to go to third party arbitration to decide if the Eu really acted in bad faith, in the highly unlikely event this were ever to occur the EU would then have the opportunity to mend its ways. if it didn't then back to arbitration and then perhaps they could leave.
even then they would have to adhere to the GFA which is back to square one for them.

L1011

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Funny enough, even though there was a Remain majority in NI, there was a very large Leave minority. No Brexit at all could potentially leave that hefty portion of the electorate open to being tempted to vote DUP.

The Unionist side of them likely already do, and the Nationalist side wouldn't ever. There are other minor anti-EU parties many of which are more socially liberal than the DUP (which isn't hard!) for the non-aligned voters.

Cosmo Kramer

One thing that surprised me last night was that Tony Connolly seemed a bit distant from what was going on, when he's usually the first man to know everything. He wasn't even in Strasbourg unlike his BBC and Sky equivalents, instead he waited back in Brussels which, given that he's the Europe correspondent (not the Brussels correspondent) for RTE, seemed very odd. It seemed very strange that he was suddenly so removed from everything. Any ideas why that was the case?

jaykay74

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't want May's deal to succeed and I'm disappointed and surprised the EU have given ground to her-the DUP seem happier with what's proposed and nobody from the EU are challenging May's assertion she's won changes -that's shocking.

They want her to get her deal through. There is no need to challenge her assertions as they are patently untrue. Thats why no much comes from Dublin so far as well. No point in giving the DUP and others more reason to vote down the deal.

prawnsambo

kalych wrote: »

Through all of this white noise of misinformation around the deal, do we have clarity on who the "arbiters" are? I can't find this anywhere. Seems like a key piece of the puzzle.

That's in the actual WA itself. Couldn't tell you exactly, but that's where you'll find it.

ToBeFrank123

I don't think the UK will get a better deal or more guarantees than this.

If the DUP vote down this, I hope they are destroyed at the next election and people finally see this party is ruining NI.

I think the EU are as tired as everyone else at this stage and just want the UK gone. There is so much bad blood that the EU wouldn't want another referendum for them to remain.

joe40

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's in the actual WA itself. Couldn't tell you exactly, but that's where you'll find it.

Tony Connelly mentioned that this morning.

On an aside if the Irish Government want this deal to pass the HoC, why would varadker say the backstop is unchanged.

Would it not have been better to give May the cover that she has received a significant concession from the EU.
Even better throw a hissy fit and say the DUP have got their way the WA has been changed. (they would love that)
Ultimately it is a legal document interpretation down the rod will not be impacted by what the Taoiseach says today.

Hurrache

Cox apparently expressed his reservations last night but was told to go back and find a way for him to give it the go ahead. If this is true, then it's not happening.

Zubeneschamali

volchitsa wrote: »

How could they have thought the EU was going to collapse at the last minute

It cannot be stressed enough that David Davis, the chief cheerleader for this view, is quite extraordinarily stupid and lazy, and got to where he is by being so dim that he doesn't even begin to grasp how unfounded his air of supreme confidence is.

gmisk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't think the UK will get a better deal or more guarantees than this.

If the DUP vote down this, I hope they are destroyed at the next election and people finally see this party is ruining NI.

I think the EU are as tired as everyone else at this stage and just wan the UK gone. There is so much bad blood that the EU wouldn't want another referendum for them to remain.

They wont be....the same people will continue to vote for them, the cash for ash, and Ian Paisley Juniors never ending free holidays havent effected their popularity, thats just how bizarre northern ireland is.

prawnsambo

Hurrache wrote: »

Cox apparently expressed his reservations last night but was told to go back and find a way for him to give it the go ahead. If this is true, then it's not happening.

And pretty robustly :eek: denied it this morning. But then again, there've been so many lies...

jaykay74

Hurrache wrote: »

Cox apparently expressed his reservations last night but was told to go back and find a way for him to give it the go ahead. If this is true, then it's not happening.

Cox has answered that accusation personally with a one word answer. I guess it shows the pressure he is under but you'd wonder why he is on twitter today at all instead of his actual job & task.


https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053

Zubeneschamali

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't want May's deal to succeed and I'm disappointed and surprised the EU have given ground to her-the DUP seem happier with what's proposed and nobody from the EU are challenging May's assertion she's won changes -that's shocking.

Why is it shocking? There is nothing for Ireland or the EU to gain by telling MPs that it is all smoke and mirrors and the deal is unchanged from the one they hated last time.


Our interest is in ensuring that No Deal doesn't happen. May's deal or No Brexit are both fine by us.

20silkcut

farmchoice wrote: »

well you cant trust them thats for sure, the bit i have highlighted is not quite right. this does not allow them to exit the backstop, at best after a lot of hoops it allows them to go to third party arbitration to decide if the Eu really acted in bad faith, in the highly unlikely event this were ever to occur the EU would then have the opportunity to mend its ways. if it didn't then back to arbitration and then perhaps they could leave.
even then they would have to adhere to the GFA which is back to square one for them.

Not if it’s a different UK government not dependent on the DUP.

Professor Moriarty

joe40 wrote: »

Tony Connelly mentioned that this morning.

On an aside if the Irish Government want this deal to pass the HoC, why would varadker say the backstop is unchanged.

Would it not have been better to give May the cover that she has received a significant concession from the EU.
Even better throw a hissy fit and say the DUP have got their way the WA has been changed. (they would love that)
Ultimately it is a legal document interpretation down the rod will not be impacted by what the Taoiseach says today.

Is the Taoiseach not entitled to make a statement to his own citizens? May and Juncker have had their say so why not the leader of a key country. Pussyfooting around the UK hasn't worked to date.

Zubeneschamali

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

It seemed very strange that he was suddenly so removed from everything. Any ideas why that was the case?

He tweeted what was happening at lunchtime. No need to follow all the breathless playacting to Strasbourg.

Seth Brundle

jaykay74 wrote: »

Cox has answered that accusation personally with a one word answer. I guess it shows the pressure he is under but you'd wonder why he is on twitter today at all instead of his actual job & task.


https://twitter.com/Geoffrey_Cox/status/1105393787243778053

Is that legalese now?

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is the Taoiseach not entitled to make a statement to his own citizens?

He has.

joe40

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is the Taoiseach not entitled to make a statement to his own citizens? May and Juncker have had their say so why not the leader of a key country. Pussyfooting around the UK hasn't worked to date.

We haven't been pussyfooting around the UK. by all accounts the backstop is unchanged, we have held our position and the EU have supported us. The expected climbdown by the EU that some in the Britain and NI had expected does not appear to have happened.
That is more important than statements.

If it is in our interest that the WA is passed that should be the priority for today.
Obviously not passing the WA may delay or prevent Brexit altogether (uncertain) so the Irish governments preferred outcome for today seems to be passing the WA

ToBeFrank123

I think it would be a really good move for Labour to back this deal and watch the Conservatives tear themselves apart.

It would be a win-win for all concerned.