Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I think it would be a really good move for Labour to back this deal and watch the Conservatives tear themselves apart.

It would be a win-win for all concerned.

Corbyn already came out last night saying it should not be voted for.

Fionn1952

L1011 wrote: »

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Funny enough, even though there was a Remain majority in NI, there was a very large Leave minority. No Brexit at all could potentially leave that hefty portion of the electorate open to being tempted to vote DUP.

The Unionist side of them likely already do, and the Nationalist side wouldn't ever. There are other minor anti-EU parties many of which are more socially liberal than the DUP (which isn't hard!) for the non-aligned voters.

I spent long enough living in the North, I dont really need to be told that the VAST majority of Nationalists won't vote for the DUP! (Note that isnt meant to come across aggressively, difficult to get vocal tone across in text form!) There are a small number who could well decide Brexit is more important to them than their nationalism however.

It's the latter group who could potentially shed a more significant number of their voters to the DUP though. Depending on how No Brexit is spun, there could easily be defection away from more moderate Unionism and middle ground 'non-aligned' types should the DUP appear to be a party who could actually get something done, when the more socially liberal parties are too small to have any weight.

This isn't something new, nor is it a certainty of course, just a possibility worth considering/exploring.

Cosmo Kramer

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I think it would be a really good move for Labour to back this deal and watch the Conservatives tear themselves apart.

It would be a win-win for all concerned.

That would be political suicide. Labour would get the blame for the Tory's hopeless deal.

ToBeFrank123

Hurrache wrote: »

Corbyn already came out last night saying it should not be voted for.

That's a completely foolish thing for him to do and will backfire.

The conservatives will go into the next election reasonably united with a hardline brexiteer as leader claiming they are the only ones who can deliver on Brexit.

Labour has major divisions at the moment.

Corbyn always shoots himself and the party in the foot at crucial times.

Leroy42

I have to say, I was worried when things started to move yesterday, was this the 11th hour climb down as promised by Davis and a few on this thread.

Well, I wake this morning to find that nothing really has changed and that we are exactly where we were in November and that the EU have not dropped Ireland for the sake of a deal with the UK.

And JCJ was very clear yesterday that this was as good as it is ever going to get. So all the talk from MP's, journalists etc that there is still time, a better deal is just around the corner etc has turned out to be false. The UK are facing the same decisions they faced on the day they voted and still are fighting with the reality that that brings.

ToBeFrank123

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

That would be political suicide. Labour would get the blame for the Tory's hopeless deal.

Most people want Brexit done. If Labour can help get it done, they will gain from that.

If however they try to prolong this sh*tshow longer, they will suffer in the polls.

A non technical extension is not going to come up with anything new. The EU sound like they are ready to pull the deal and all concessions off the table and let the UK sink if this isn't voted through.

Its last chance saloon for the UK.

Hurrache

All legal analysis over there this morning points to the fact of what we already know, there's no changes to the WA and gives nothing that the likes of the ERG, the DUP and other leavers demanded such as a unilateral withdrawal from the backstop.

Ordinarily then it would be odd, but this is Brexit, that many MPs are now coming out publicly saying that they're happy with what May has come back from Strasburg with and they'll be voting for it this evening.

Just shows the bull**** in parliament, it's just politics and in fact had nothing to do with the backstop really.

ToBeFrank123

There is unilateral withdrawal in the deal as per last night.

I don't think the ERG or the DUP have the brains to understand that.

The UK can withdraw after arbitration and/or if the EU show bad faith.

ArmaniJeanss

5 days ago.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There's a very slim chance of Labour backing her deal but they'd want something in return such as the promise of a GE after all the Brext legislation is voted through - she needs them for that too. Its unlikely however Labour will come to her aide. They want a second referendum now. Why would they dig her and the conservatives out of a hole? So the conservatives can go into the next GE saying they successfully delivered Brexit? Corbyn like May will always put the good of the party before the good of the country.

Now.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

That's a completely foolish thing for him to do and will backfire.

The conservatives will go into the next election reasonably united with a hardline brexiteer as leader claiming they are the only ones who can deliver on Brexit.

Labour has major divisions at the moment.

Corbyn always shoots himself and the party in the foot at crucial times.

Literally 5 days ago you said it'd be stupid of Labour to back the Tories and help them deliver Brexit.

Now it's foolish of him not to back her deal, and Corbyn is shooting himself in the foot.

Cosmo Kramer

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Most people want Brexit done. If Labour can help get it done, they will gain from that.

If however they try to prolong this sh*tshow longer, they will suffer in the polls.

A non technical extension is not going to come up with anything new. The EU sound like they are ready to pull the deal and all concessions off the table and let the UK sink if this isn't voted through.

Its last chance saloon for the UK.

Trust me, you're miles off on this. 72% of Labour voters favour a second referendum. 88% would vote remain in a second referendum. There's a reason why Corbyn has had to come out backing a second referendum even though he doesn't personally want one. Your tactic would amount to political suicide for Labour.

Apparently Cox has made his decision and its now at Cabinet.


https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105411200903512064

ToBeFrank123

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

5 days ago.


Now.


Literally 5 days ago you said it'd be stupid of Labour to back the Tories and help them deliver Brexit.

Now it's foolish of him not to back her deal, and Corbyn is shooting himself in the foot.

A week is a long time in politics. Things chance massively in a couple of days.

You knew that already?

Of course you didn't

funkey_monkey

Does anyone have a link to BBC news this morning at 9am where jrm was interviewed outside commons?
He was asked if he would support deal. He said it depended on the advice of their lawyers AND the opinion of the DUP!

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

Just shows the bull**** in parliament, it's just politics and in fact had nothing to do with the backstop really.

Many voted down May's deal because they thought they could get more from the EU. May tried to get more. This is it, this is all they get.

So anyone who voted down May's deal to get a better one can forget that now.

It's this deal, No Deal or No Brexit.

funkey_monkey

Found it:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1105408544352813058?s=20

ToBeFrank123

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Trust me, you're miles off on this. 72% of Labour voters favour a second referendum. 88% would vote remain in a second referendum. There's a reason why Corbyn has had to come out backing a second referendum even though he doesn't personally want one. Your tactic would amount to political suicide for Labour.

We won't know until the next election. I guess people haven't been following either Labour's implosion over anti Semitism.

The latest legal additions to the deal last night represent the last chance saloon for everyone in UK politics. Its either sign or face the wrath of the electorate who are sick to death of this sh*tshow. People want it done and to move on.

Up to last night there was a slim case for a second referendum - ie Labour's idea.

That slim case is now gone - in other words Labour's big idea is gone. So now they have to act fast, think on their feet and move to plan B. That's what good politics is about, thinking on your feet, not sticking to a policy that has been undermined by fast moving events. I wouldn't expect most people to understand that though.

ArmaniJeanss

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

A week is a long time in politics. Things chance massively in a couple of days.

You knew that already?

Of course you didn't

I understand that minor changes have happened last night.
Maybe it's the whole 'shooting himself in the foot', 'completely foolish' language that gets me. Especially when you are applying it to him not doing the complete opposite of what you thought was sensible just a few days ago.

Its Daily Express level of simplistic thinking, things in real-politik are generally a bit more subtle.

intellectual dosser

I think the chances of a second referendum are stronger than ever. The deal will not pass in the HoC this evening, and avoiding a No Deal Brexit will pass tomorrow.

That puts us on the path for an extension, and with the EU requiring cause the UK Govt will need to put forward either a general election or a second referendum.

Cosmo Kramer

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

We won't know until the next election. I guess people haven't been following either Labour's implosion over anti Semitism.

The latest legal additions to the deal last night represent the last chance saloon for everyone in UK politics. Its either sign or face the wrath of the electorate who are sick to death of this sh*tshow. People want it done and to move on.

Up to last night there was a slim case for a second referendum - ie Labour's idea.

That slim case is now gone - in other words Labour's big idea is gone. So now they have to act fast, think on their feet and move to plan B. That's what good politics is about, thinking on your feet, not sticking to a policy that has been undermined by fast moving events. I wouldn't expect most people to understand that though.

Ok, I'm not going to delve into this one much further because at this stage your proposed tactic for Labour is "we're in a bad place because of the anti-semitism issues, let's finish ourselves off completely by supporting the brexit deal our voters hate."

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The latest legal additions to the deal last night represent the last chance saloon for everyone in UK politics.

There are no additions, legal or otherwise, to the deal. It's the exactly the same offer that TM took back from Brussels last year.

ToBeFrank123

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I understand that minor changes have happened last night.
Maybe it's the whole 'shooting himself in the foot', 'completely foolish' language that gets me. Especially when you are applying it to him not doing the complete opposite of what you thought was sensible just a few days ago.

Its Daily Express level of thinking, things in real-politik are generally a bit more subtle.

Things have moved on. Politics is like chess. Corbyn makes a move ie Call for a second referendum. May makes a move of her own, gets legal concessions from the EU, largely a fudge I agree, but a fudge everyone can sign up to to get them out of the massive hole they are in. The EU have given the means for UK politicians from all parties to get out of that hole. They'd be foolish not to accept it. This is the best deal the UK will ever get, no mistake.

A non technical extension or attempting to have a second referendum is just going back into the whirl pool from which they seem incapable of escaping.

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

This is the best deal the UK will ever get, no mistake.

No, it is worse than the deal they have now.


MPs can keep the better deal, better than No Deal, better than May's deal, by voting No to May's deal and then No to No Deal. What's left? No Brexit.

volchitsa

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Does anyone have a link to BBC news this morning at 9am where jrm was interviewed outside commons?
He was asked if he would support deal. He said it depended on the advice of their lawyers AND the opinion of the DUP!

Dont have a link but I heard that. The irony of a fairly traditionalist catholic like JRM being in cahoots with the DUP is just gob smacking.

Although TBF it looks like the DUP are the dominant partners so maybe that's why they're ok with it.

ToBeFrank123

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it is worse than the deal they have now.


MPs can keep the better deal, better than No Deal, better than May's deal, by voting No to May's deal and then No to No Deal. What's left? No Brexit.

Its this deal or back on the guinea pig wheel to try and find something else or kicking the can down the road - and the same deal offered again in several months which the DUP and ERG are still not happy with.

No-one wants a No Deal.

And there isn't a majority in the HoC for a second referendum.


So its this deal or possibly two more years of this sh*tshow which would be nearly as bad as a No Deal for the UK in that investment would stall and companies would continue to move out of the UK.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Things have moved on. Politics is like chess. Corbyn makes a move ie Call for a second referendum. May makes a move of her own, gets legal concessions from the EU, largely a fudge I agree, but a fudge everyone can sign up to to get them out of the massive hole they are in.

Nothing has moved on; May has not got a single concession from the EU. It's not even a fudge - it's just the EU writing "Brexit means Brexit, and Backstop means Backstop, but we respect your right to have a strop about it"

Labour will, quite rightly, point out that "nothing has changed" and on that basis maintain their position of last week (the one you supported :P.) Today is going to be all about variations on the theme of Tory and DUP backtracking and climbdowns.

RobMc59

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why is it shocking? There is nothing for Ireland or the EU to gain by telling MPs that it is all smoke and mirrors and the deal is unchanged from the one they hated last time.


Our interest is in ensuring that No Deal doesn't happen. May's deal or No Brexit are both fine by us.

This will probably fail but the brexiteers will be heartened that the EU has apparently buckled-they will be thinking in their warped minds-"just how far can we push them for concessions?"
It's a sad day for remainers as this will drag the whole sorry affair out longer.

mayordenis

Mod: Stop posting nonsense please.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it is worse than the deal they have now.


MPs can keep the better deal, better than No Deal, better than May's deal, by voting No to May's deal and then No to No Deal. What's left? No Brexit.

The one option that the UK can take unilaterally is to revoke Art 50. Why is no-one talking about it?

Today's vote on deal - lost. Deal lost.

Tomorrows vote on No Crash out - passed - No Deal Brexit off the table.

Thursday's vote - Extension or revoke ? We will see. Extension requires EU agreement, revoke does not. Extension might require a 2nd vote or a GE. Both these mean **** today, while revoke means **** tomorrow, and another day in No 10.

Imreoir2

Kiith wrote: »

Why would the EU trust Britain to negotiate in good faith when they decide to pull out and claim bad faith by the EU? They've shown nothing but contempt for any agreement so far. From what i read, this allows them to pull out of the backstop, as long as they comply with the GFA. They've already shown that the GFA will take a backseat to their demands, so why would this change? Is this not giving Britain an out?

Hopefully i'm missing something.

It's not quite so simple as that. The UK does not get to walk away just because they claim there has been bad faith by the EU, only if there actually is bad faith by the EU. Proving bad faith under an international treaty like this is nigh on impossible unless the other side acts in such an outlandish way as to make it obvious to everyone. Thinking that the EU will act in such an outlandish way as to bring activating the UK's unilateral declaration into play is akin to praying for Brexit unicorns.

If the UK were to try to walk away under the terms of their unilateral declaration citing bad faith by the EU when in reality there had been no bad faith on the part of the EU, the EU would be within its rights to suspend the whole treaty because the UK is in breach of its terms.

What matters is what the international community accepts as the valid interpertation of events, will they go along with the UK who in this scenario is acting as a rogue state playing fast and loose with international law, or will they agree with the EU which is a sober rules based organisation living within the terms of agreements it has made?

The UK could always have agreed the treaty and then later breached it and walked away, nothing has changed there.

TCDStudent1

Pat Kenny just said he is hearing Sammy Wilson has stated DUP will reject it. Said he will have more updates soon.