Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

Cox saying the legal risk is unchanged

Laois_Man

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

:pac: A legally binding reinforcement of what the DUP and ERG hated in the first place!

:eek:

That is exactly what has just been read out on Sky News

They're all in a bit of a flap though so wait and see

farmchoice

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

"the legal risk is unchanged"

ya confirmed,
jesus what an absolute shambles the uk is i bet she will pull the vote.

Adamcp898

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Did I hear that correctly on Bloomberg just now, Cox unchanged?

But is simultaneously saying the risk is reduced.

Finally some clarity.

Kermit.de.frog

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Cox saying the legal risk is unchanged

It's dead then for the ERG and presumably DUP.


Nothing has changed in practical terms. It is just assurances.

cmac2009

Hurrache wrote: »

Cox is expected to expand on his declaration of 'bollox' at 12:30 with a speech on the agreement.

Really is a sad state of affairs that the AT for the UK would use such language. Just shows what a state the political landscape is in these days.

ToBeFrank123

Laois_Man wrote: »

AG's legal opinion has been published as "a substantive and binding legal reinforcement of the WA"

Vague!

Nope. Its clear. Its legally binding guarantees. The documents are quite clear about that. The UK can leave after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith such as trying to trap the UK in the backstop permanently. Further work will be required on the backstop but we all knew that.

There was never going to be a perfect Brexit. This is as good as it gets for all concerned.

jaykay74

farmchoice wrote: »

ya confirmed,
jesus what an absolute shambles the uk is i bet she will pull the vote.

The only point in having the vote is to know the numbers involved in opposing it which I guess won't be far off the last vote. A touch under 200 maybe. She'll be gone soon enough I think. Theres nothing left for her to do.

ToBeFrank123

cmac2009 wrote: »

Really is a sad state of affairs that the AT for the UK would use such language. Just shows what a state the political landscape is in these days.

I thought he put it quite well.

Kermit.de.frog

UK would have no lawful means of exiting the backstop, save by agreement

Cox legal advice, last line.

EKRIUQ

I imagine now that Cox has says nothing has changed, it means that the vote tonight won't be passed.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope. Its clear. Its legally binding guarantees. The documents are quite clear about that. The UK can leave after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith such as trying to trap the UK in the backstop permanently. Further work will be required on the backstop but we all knew that.

There was never going to be a perfect Brexit. This is as good as it gets for all concerned.

the same process is outlined in the WA, nothing has changed, even according to the AG you were waiting for.

"the legal risk in unchanged"

Imreoir2

Hurrache wrote: »

No, no there isn't.

Legal experts like these? You also don't need to be a legal expert to understand what the EU negotiators meant when they said, and consistently said, they're not reopening the WA.

https://twitter.com/livuninews/status/1105394967885869056

Thanks for that, nice to have an expert opinion to back up my reading of the situation. I didn't realise that even the right to disapply the backstop should the EU be found to be in breach of it's obligation to engage in good faith, as set out in the UK's unilateral declaration is in itself not anything new. But of course, the obligation on the EU to engage in good faith is already a provision of the treaty, if the EU were to breach that provision of the treaty by not engageing in good faith then UK would be within its rights to suspend the treaty on foot of that breach, so nothing new indeed.

boggerman1

Cox saying nothing has changed?.a loss of between 150 and 200 so will be a victory for may

Laois_Man

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope. Its clear. Its legally binding guarantees. The documents are quite clear about that. The UK can leave after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith such as trying to trap the UK in the backstop permanently. Further work will be required on the backstop but we all knew that.

There was never going to be a perfect Brexit. This is as good as it gets for all concerned.

Not after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith. It is if the EU engage in bad faith and are found guilty of so by arbitration.

That's a huge difference!

farmchoice

boggerman1 wrote: »

Cox saying nothing has changed?.a loss of between 150 and 200 so will be a victory for may

i think this might be her waterloo, if she loses tonight by more then 50 then surly she has to go.

i think she might go all in and try and pull the vote.

Enzokk

The new question now is will May survive the week? She has astounded me in being able to come back from the brink many times before but surely now this has to be it for her if she loses the vote tonight. She has said she will go and get changes and herself voted for it, then comes back with the same deal and tries to sell it as new and expects it to pass and keep her job if it doesn't?

The pound has been reacting to this news.

https://twitter.com/RJPartington/status/1105425643175579649

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope. Its clear. Its legally binding guarantees. The documents are quite clear about that. The UK can leave after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith such as trying to trap the UK in the backstop permanently. Further work will be required on the backstop but we all knew that.

There was never going to be a perfect Brexit. This is as good as it gets for all concerned.

Perhaps, but that was the case anyway, nothing changed last night.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

Not after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith. It is if the EU engage in bad faith and are found guilty of so by arbitration.

That's a huge difference!

And also the EU would have time to engage again in good faith which would bring the whole process back to where the UK is "trapped" in the backstop.

jaykay74

farmchoice wrote: »

i think she might go all in and try and pull the vote.

If she pulled the vote then surely there would be a few Cons that would support a Lab motion of no confidence ?

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

The new question now is will May survive the week? She has astounded me in being able to come back from the brink many times before but surely now this has to be it for her if she loses the vote tonight. She has said she will go and get changes and herself voted for it, then comes back with the same deal and tries to sell it as new and expects it to pass and keep her job if it doesn't?

The pound has been reacting to this news.

https://twitter.com/RJPartington/status/1105425643175579649

She'll have to be dragged out kicking and screaming - no doubt!

LeinsterDub

farmchoice wrote: »

i think this might be her waterloo, if she loses tonight by more then 50 then surly she has to go.

i think she might go all in and try and pull the vote.

She's already been cut off at that particular pass. Any attempt to pull the vote will allegedly result in her losing a vote of confidence

joe40

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nope. Its clear. Its legally binding guarantees. The documents are quite clear about that. The UK can leave after arbitration or if the EU engage in bad faith such as trying to trap the UK in the backstop permanently. Further work will be required on the backstop but we all knew that.

There was never going to be a perfect Brexit. This is as good as it gets for all concerned.

They can take the ball and leave the game, but only if the ref allows it.

(Someone else's analysis but I'm going to steal it)

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

And also the EU would have time to engage again in good faith which would bring the whole process back to where the UK is "trapped" in the backstop.

I didn't know that bit - that's interesting!

The entire charade is even more ridiculous then!

Beechwoodspark

So as suspected the vote will be lost

The big choice now is how long they would like the extension to be

Of course the EU can largely dictate that to them

Humiliation on top of humiliation for the Brits

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

You have to say fair play to Cox for not capitulating on this.

Cryptopagan

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So as suspected the vote will be lost

The big choice now is how long they would like the extension to be

Of course the EU can largely dictate that to them

Humiliation on top of humiliation for the Brits

She'll pull the vote.

ToBeFrank123

farmchoice wrote: »

i think this might be her waterloo, if she loses tonight by more then 50 then surly she has to go.

As its the best deal she is ever going to get from the EU, then yes if she can't get it through its hard to see her staying on.

Beechwoodspark

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

You have to say fair play to Cox for not capitulating on this.

He’s eyeing Number 10 I suspect

Laois_Man

jaykay74 wrote: »

If she pulled the vote then surely there would be a few Cons that would support a Lab motion of no confidence ?

Such has been the shambles of the performance of parliament and the divide in the country, I think every MP would be afraid of a GE at the moment!