Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10

briany wrote: »

Doesn't there need to be a parliamentary majority to revoke A50?

Yep, I'd imagine so. It's about the only unilateral move they can make - not saying that this sort of move is imminent, but it's not as far away as people might think, with the way things are going. They don't need the EU approval for revoking Article 50, far as I know.

GM228

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Junker clearly stated last night that there will be no third chance, no further clarifications or assurences if the deal is rejected today. Clearly ruling out an extension for the purpose of getting further concessions/assurnaces from the EU, no?

And he has stated the same again this morning:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1105433411592818688?s=19

10000maniacs

DUP is Rejecting the deal, a report at the BBC says.

Kermit.de.frog

MP Andrew "entitled to an Irish passport by virtue of being an Englishman" Bridgen saying he's likely to vote against.


"Nothing has changed", "they'll be laughing in Brussels" etc etc

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

Doesn't there need to be a parliamentary majority to revoke A50?

Yes and no. Technically invoking and revoking A50 is for the executive aka May . However the withdrawal act states the UK are leaving on the 29th. So you could end up with a constitutional nightmare.

Cryptopagan

Dytalus wrote: »

Then it's a No Deal Brexit. This is why I hate the whole "vote on No Deal" they're doing. It's a waste of time, No Deal is the default of their current situation.

Say No to the WA -> Vote on extension -> Either a No vote or the EU27 refuse -> No Deal.

The only way to avoid No Deal either now or after an extension is to either cancel Brexit, or accept the WA. There's no point voting on whether No Deal is acceptable or not, it's an extraneous vote.

It’s worth it to establish the scale of opposition to no deal, which will be very large. If May’s deal is rejected, and a request for an extension to Article 50 is rebuffed on the grounds that she isn’t offering any alternative way forward, that’s when a second referendum might become acceptable to parliament. Though May might pull the vote and reschedule it for the last possible moment, so it really wil become this deal or no deal.

liamtech

Im a bit late to the party - have the DUP made their intentions clear - seeing 'not opposed to extension' and 'everything hinges on DUP' - but no Yay or nay -

catching up ATM

ToBeFrank123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's unlikely though. Juncker tweeted yesterday that they would agree to an extension. That, and Cox's negative opinion, should set alarm bells ringing for the Brexiteers.

The line from the EU is there would only be an extension for a meaningful reason.

Extension to negotiate a new agreement? Nope
Extension for further legally binding clarifications? Unlikely - The EU have given all they will give after last night.
Extension for GE in the UK? - unlikely - deckchairs on the Titanic and all that.

This leaves extension for a second referendum, ie 21 month extension. I can't see the Conservatives going for that.

So it is very possible the UK's membership will lapse on 29th March unless another last minute fudge can be found.

Inquitus

The deal or no Brexit getting some ERG traction

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105443867799834624

Kermit.de.frog

The booming voice is speaking now in the commons!

Professor Moriarty

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The line from the EU is there would only be an extension for a meaningful reason.

Extension to negotiate a new agreement? Nope
Extension for further legally binding clarifications? Unlikely - The EU have given all they will give after last night.
Extension for GE in the UK? - unlikely - deckchairs on the Titanic and all that.

This leaves extension for a second referendum, ie 21 month extension. I can't see the Conservatives going for that.

So it is very possible the UK's membership will lapse on 29th March unless another last minute fudge can be found.

Assuming May's deal tanks today, then they will go through the motions of voting against a no deal and voting for an extension. If the EU believes that a snap election were to take place, or a second referendum, then they would grant an extension. Basically, for Brexiteers, it would mean No Deal or a soft Brexit/Remain.

Infini

If they reject this again their only options are crash out or abandon Brexit. I honestly think the EU should simply refuse any further extentions telling then they MUST make a decision or crash out will be the default. The simple truth is the conservatives are cowards refusing to face reality and its better to be done with this toxic failure of a party until such a time as Britain sorts itself out.

Inquitus

Ulster officially says NO it seems! It all depends on how many of the ERG split off and vote for the deal worried about the possibility of no Brexit. Personally I can't see this getting through without the DUP, there are not enough Labour leavers to swing it.

Professor Moriarty

Inquitus wrote: »

Ulster officially says NO it seems! It all depends on how many of the ERG split off and vote for the deal worried about the possibility of no Brexit. Personally I can't see this getting through without the DUP, there are not enough Labour leavers to swing it.

1/33 with Paddy Power on it being defeated.

Inquitus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

1/33 with Paddy Power on it being defeated.

Aye that sounds about right, tonight will be fun!

Cryptopagan

Infini wrote: »

If they reject this again their only options are crash out or abandon Brexit. I honestly think the EU should simply refuse any further extentions telling then they MUST make a decision or crash out will be the default. The simple truth is the conservatives are cowards refusing to face reality and its better to be done with this toxic failure of a party until such a time as Britain sorts itself out.

Why would the EU refuse if it was to enable a referendum or ge? Those would be positive developments.

LeinsterDub

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Why would the EU refuse if it was to enable a referendum or ge? Those would be positive developments.

I don't see a GE as positive unless Corybn gets his **** together

Laois_Man

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Why would the EU refuse if it was to enable a referendum or ge? Those would be positive developments.

The EU will want to know what the options on the ballot paper will be before they'd be willing to give an extension long enough to facilitate a second referendum. So I think there'd have to be 2 extensions. One until maybe the end of April to sort out what would be on a ballot paper, and a second to give time for the second referendum itself in the event that the EU are happy to proceed.

These basket cases will find it tough enough to agree the question by the end of April, impossible by March 29th.

Cryptopagan

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't see a GE as positive unless Corybn gets his **** together

Labour would win a GE handily. It has a vision for Brexit it’s parliamentary party can get behind with relatively little dissent.

Laois_Man

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't see a GE as positive unless Corybn gets his **** together

If it achieves noting else but removes the DUP influence, it's worth it!

Border down the Irish sea happens immediately!

Professor Moriarty

Corbyn is a disaster. However, a snap GE right now would essentially be a Brexit referendum. With, probably, the Tories campaigning on a relatively hardish Brexit and Labour campaigning on a relatively softish Brexit/second referendum.

jester77

Dytalus wrote: »

Then it's a No Deal Brexit. This is why I hate the whole "vote on No Deal" they're doing. It's a waste of time, No Deal is the default of their current situation.

Say No to the WA -> Vote on extension -> Either a No vote or the EU27 refuse -> No Deal.

The only way to avoid No Deal either now or after an extension is to either cancel Brexit, or accept the WA. There's no point voting on whether No Deal is acceptable or not, it's an extraneous vote.

It lets the UK deflect the No Deal blame towards the EU and they will point the finger at the EU for not extending the deal.

Inquitus

Laois_Man wrote: »

If it achieves noting else but removes the DUP influence, it's worth it!

Border down the Irish sea happens immediately!

If the polls are to be believed we'll end up with a hard Brexit leader of the Tories and a Tory majority, not sure that's a direction we want them to move in?

I'd happily take a border in the Irish sea though.

Cryptopagan

Inquitus wrote: »

If the polls are to be believed we'll end up with a hard Brexit leader of the Tories and a Tory majority, not sure that's a direction we want them to move in?

I'd happily take a border in the Irish sea though.

What did the polls say last time May called an election?

Adamcp898

Presumably, a loss this evening for May would seriously raise the prospect of another no-confidence motion. Labour have indicated that they will only table one when they feel it can pass, and Ian Blackford said this morning that the SNP would support any no-confidence motion.

A no-confidence motion passing would precipitate a request for A50 extension presumably, but would tabling such a motion immediately change the timeline on Wednesday & Thursday's "no-deal" and A50 extension votes respectively, whether it is carried or not?

jmayo

Hurrache wrote: »

There was a veiled suggestion in Junker's speech last night saying if they're not gone by the time of the EU elections they'll have to elect MEPs, so you could extract that he may be suggesting that any extension will only be up until that point, if there even was to be an extension.

If there is extension beyond summer then they have to run European elections.

Otherwise all decisions by EU parliament could be legally argued as being null and void, including agreements on things like the commission.

Hell the UK will have to appoint replacement for or leave commissioner Julian King in his job.

Imagine what a European election will look like in Britain if Brexit is postponed ?

What platform would the parties run their candidates on ?

liamtech

jmayo wrote: »

If there is extension beyond summer then they have to run European elections.

Otherwise all decisions by EU parliament could be legally argued as being null and void, including agreements on things like the commission.

Hell the UK will have to appoint replacement for or leave commissioner Julian King in his job.

Imagine what a European election will look like in Britain if Brexit is postponed ?

What platform would the parties run their candidates on ?

probably remain or leave

ToBeFrank123

Don't suppose Sinn Fein voting in the HoC would help in any way avoid a Hard Border?

It would be gas if they replaced the DUP as holding the balance of power. Pie in the sky I know. But its a shame large sections of the nationalist community have essentially no say in Brexit.

PokeHerKing

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

It would be gas if they replaced the DUP as holding the balance of power. Pie in the sky I know. But its a shame large sections of the nationalist community have essentially no say in Brexit.

They have the Irish government and the EU fighting their corner. An infinitely better option than a few votes in the HoC.

c.p.w.g.w

Seth Brundle wrote: »

TM: We want assurances
EU: See this bit in the WA about adjudication? You can have that.
TM: We want more - we don't want to be trapped by the backstop. It cannot be permanent.
EU: As we've said before, you won't be once alternative arrangements are agreed by UK & EU.
TM: OK I win

That's pretty much what I thought had happened