Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

dresden8

Enzokk wrote: »

The new question now is will May survive the week? She has astounded me in being able to come back from the brink many times before but surely now this has to be it for her if she loses the vote tonight. She has said she will go and get changes and herself voted for it, then comes back with the same deal and tries to sell it as new and expects it to pass and keep her job if it doesn't?

The pound has been reacting to this news.

https://twitter.com/RJPartington/status/1105425643175579649

There's another yacht for someone.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Don't suppose Sinn Fein voting in the HoC would help in any way avoid a Hard Border?

It would be gas if they replaced the DUP as holding the balance of power. Pie in the sky I know. But its a shame large sections of the nationalist community have essentially no say in Brexit.

time and again people peddle this nonsense

the SF MPs are elected on an abstentionist platform, and were elected as so in 2017.

CelticRambler

Cryptopagan wrote: »

If May’s deal is rejected, and a request for an extension to Article 50 is rebuffed on the grounds that she isn’t offering any alternative way forward, that’s when a second referendum might become acceptable to parliament.

I heard Peter Kyle say at the weekend that he & Wilson were sitting on their amendment "until the time is right". Could be that that time will be next week: - May puts the same WA to a vote with a (legally binding ) guarantee to put it to a people's vote;
- WA passes at the eleventh hour;
- TM goes to EU to ask for an extension to hold the referendum, EU says fine, but minimum 21 months and put "no Brexit" on the ballot paper;
- TM says "thanks, that gives me time to kick the people's vote into the future and keep my place in No.10";
- Lots of huffing and puffing in the HoC but ERG and DUP secretly happy they don't have to face the music of a choatic Brexit next month, Labour happy that they've scored a win of sorts, Remainers happy that they've got a year or more to prepare for a second ref.

GM228

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1105454734058708992?s=19

blanch152

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

time and again people peddle this nonsense

the SF MPs are elected on an abstentionist platform, and were elected as so in 2017.

We all know that, but your country calls and you choose whether to answer or not.

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't see a GE as positive unless Corybn gets his **** together

Not sure, a romping conservative win would be as good for us, it would sideline the ERG and the DUP and allow May to get whatever deal she wants to agree over the line through the whip.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

We all know that, but your country calls and you choose whether to answer or not.

It's not their country

ToBeFrank123

PokeHerKing wrote: »

They have the Irish government and the EU fighting their corner. An infinitely better option than a few votes in the HoC.

The Irish government and EU can't vote in the HoC where the decision will ultimately be made if there's a hard border or not.

Hurrache

Cox is doing his best to sell the agreement in the HoC.

maynooth_rules

PokeHerKing wrote: »

They have the Irish government and the EU fighting their corner. An infinitely better option than a few votes in the HoC.

Sinn Fein have been an utter shambles throughout all of the Brexit negotiations. The utter definition of hurlers in the ditch. The Nationalist community in the North deserve much better

ToBeFrank123

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1105454734058708992?s=19

Ah well don't think the EU or May could have done any more.

It seems like nothing short of a hard Brexit will satisfy ERG and DUP.

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The Irish government and EU can't vote in the HoC where the decision will ultimately be made if there's a hard border or not.

Of course. But neither will they find any deals for themselves with the EU or even the US if they impose one. Decisions made against the interest of the common good expecially those made by fools and ideologues with pig ignorance of the realities on the ground will come back to haunt them.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Ah well don't think the EU or May could have done any more.

It seems like nothing short of a hard Brexit will satisfy ERG and DUP.

In fairness the EU has given as much as it is willing to. May landed herself in this position shes where the buck stops. As for the European Troll Group and Dumbàss Unionist Party these 2 reek of incompetence and corruption and hopefully karma will have a way of coming back to haunt them for this whole excercise.

Hurrache

David Blevins saying that the DUP won't be supporting it, an official statement is imminent.

farmchoice

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been an utter shambles throughout all of the Brexit negotiations. The utter definition of hurlers in the ditch. The Nationalist community in the North deserve much better

im no sinn feiner but i could not agree with you there. hey have played it very well, kept off the pitch and let the dup run around shooting at themselves.

ToBeFrank123

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

time and again people peddle this nonsense

the SF MPs are elected on an abstentionist platform, and were elected as so in 2017.

And this hardline attitude makes a hard border all the more likely.
Sad really but there you go.
As I said it was pie in the sky that they would intervene to help Ireland in its hour of need. They are just going to sit on their hands and take the wages and expenses and do nothing.

I get it.

maynooth_rules

farmchoice wrote: »

im no sinn feiner but i could not agree with you there. hey have played it very well, kept off the pitch and let the dup run around shooting at themselves.

They keep bringing up the topic of a border poll which is horrific timing at the moment. They are the first to voice their opinion on any issue regards Brexit, despite refusing to take their seats in Westminster (but not refusing to take expenses from there ) and high tailing it straight to the opposition benches when they could have formed a government here after the last election

ToBeFrank123

farmchoice wrote: »

im no sinn feiner but i could not agree with you there. hey have played it very well, kept off the pitch and let the dup run around shooting at themselves.

And if them playing on the pitch could in some small way prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland?

They've left the pitch entirely to the DUP in the HoC.

Infini

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been an utter shambles throughout all of the Brexit negotiations. The utter definition of hurlers in the ditch. The Nationalist community in the North deserve much better

In fairness they're playing the long game here. The DUP and friends has through Brexit done more to advocate for a UI than any time in the past. Why get involved when all one needs to do is let the DUP set itself up as the wrecker of the NI economy then slaughter them when a Hard Brexit happens and hammer home the fact they were in Westminster engineering this. Its a sound strategy to be fair expecially should a crash occur as a UI then becomes a legitimate "Out" from all this Brexit fiasco and at the same time shows that Westminster doesnt care bout NI.

ToBeFrank123

If the long game includes a hard border, they've played that really well! Because that what they are going to get.

LeinsterDub

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Labour would win a GE handily. It has a vision for Brexit it’s parliamentary party can get behind with relatively little dissent.

That's not what the polls suggest

gooch2k9

JRM asking what the consequences would be if a future parliament just pulled out of the backstop. These people have the cheek to talk about good faith.

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If the long game includes a hard border, they've played that really well! Because that what they are going to get.

A Hard Border though is a catalyst for a UI because theres significant opposition to it and a UI negates its existence. Noone wants it but if one is implimented then the strategy turns to removing it.

PokeHerKing

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

The Irish government and EU can't vote in the HoC where the decision will ultimately be made if there's a hard border or not.

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

If the long game includes a hard border, they've played that really well! Because that what they are going to get.

Sinn fein campaigned for a no vote for Brexit. They did as much as they could really. I'm not a sinn fein supporter by any stretch.

Taking their seats in HoC would also have had no effect on where we find ourselves today. So your point is moot and could be seen as a snipe at sinn fein for the sake of it.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And if them playing on the pitch could in some small way prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland?

They've left the pitch entirely to the DUP in the HoC.

Ah, give over. The last vote was lost by 200 votes; SF's handful of members wouldn't make any difference. I thought you claimed earlier that you were a master of political intrigue?

BonnieSituation

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been an utter shambles throughout all of the Brexit negotiations. The utter definition of hurlers in the ditch. The Nationalist community in the North deserve much better

Do they deserve the SDLP?

If they think SF were poor they will surely vote for other parties.

J Mysterio

10000maniacs wrote: »

DUP is Rejecting the deal, a report at the BBC says.

This is what happens when you get into bed with the DUP.

The NI government which they should be working in has been shut for two years because they wont even offer Irish language rights to 1/2 the population of Northern Ireland.

Sore way to learn an obvious lesson. Maybe if the UK government paid more attention to a consitutent part of their 'kingdom' they wouldn't be in such a mess, but then this is the UK government who appointed Karen Bradley as NI Secretary, a woman who didnt realise Nationalists and Unionists dont vote for each other and who thinks UK soldiers shooting NI civilians is proper order.

joe40

maynooth_rules wrote: »

They keep bringing up the topic of a border poll which is horrific timing at the moment. They are the first to voice their opinion on any issue regards Brexit, despite refusing to take their seats in Westminster (but not refusing to take expenses from there ) and high tailing it straight to the opposition benches when they could have formed a government here after the last election

Sinn fein have been very clear in their position, their overarching aim is the establishment of a united Ireland.
Whether or not agree with this is up to yourself, but they are were elected in the north on a platform of non attendance at Westminster. That was their manifesto.
Now people think that should be torn up. Things like democratic mandate must mean nothing to some people.
Every single person that voted for a Sinn Fein MP knew they would not attend Westminster.
The way some people talk you would think that was a decision they made on a whim. I don't support Sinn Fein but I totally support their position in this.

Plus that last sentence that they were in a position to form a government... What are you talking about?

CelticRambler

J Mysterio wrote: »

The NI government which they should be working in has been shut for two years because they wont even offer Irish language rights to 1/2 the population of Northern Ireland.

Heard in the background a little while ago that the leaders of the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies are taking umbridge at the fact that Arlene's been getting favourable treatment (pre-agreement consultations, an effective veto on any decision) even though she's nothing more than the leader of a phantom regional government whereas Scotland and Wales have a functioning government.

Imreoir2

farmchoice wrote: »

im no sinn feiner but i could not agree with you there. hey have played it very well, kept off the pitch and let the dup run around shooting at themselves.

As it turns out, you can only score own goals when you control both sides of the pitch.

SF being in westminster is not really all that important, the only thing the UK can do there is decide to invoke a nuclear option of a no-deal Brexit. If the UK is so inclined, a handfull of SF MP's won't deter them. For everything else, SF representation in the EU parliament and the Dáil is far more influential on the shape of the final deal.

Cryptopagan

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That's not what the polls suggest

The polls said May would romp home to a large majority last time, but her lead collapsed over the course of the campaign. In the context of a GE called specifically to break the Brexit impasse, Labour would be campaigning on the basis of a Brexit policy the vast majority of their candidates will support. The Tories would still be hopelessly divided. That's a recipe for a thumping defeat.