Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Macy0161

Listened to the lunch time news on Radio 4. Both the political editor of the sun, and Matthew Parris both see it going back to the people, either via a referendum on May's Deal or a General Election. Both also saw a Tory defeat iirc. It followed on from an interview with someone from the 1922 committee saying defeat meant an election was inevitable, essentially (my take) as it can't be countenanced that the House would take control from the executive.

robinph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is a disaster. However, a snap GE right now would essentially be a Brexit referendum. With, probably, the Tories campaigning on a relatively hardish Brexit and Labour campaigning on a relatively softish Brexit/second referendum.

I don't see how it would be a referendum?

You'd be voting for the Withdrawal Agreement on one hand, but only in a few constituencies where there is someone following the Tory party line and in the Mogg following constituencies you'd still be voting for No Deal. The alternative option being another bunch of negotiations to come to the same result, but the negotiations carried out by a bloke with a beard which would be the only significant difference in the end.

Would just be a party that is offering the WA versus a party that will re negotiate the WA and come back in a couple of months with exactly the same thing on different coloured paper.

trellheim

wonderful tweet going around "well that was a billion pounds well spent" to the DUP

Cryptopagan

robinph wrote: »

I don't see how it would be a referendum?

You'd be voting for the Withdrawal Agreement on one hand, but only in a few constituencies where there is someone following the Tory party line and in the Mogg following constituencies you'd still be voting for No Deal. The alternative option being another bunch of negotiations to come to the same result, but the negotiations carried out by a bloke with a beard which would be the only significant difference in the end.

Would just be a party that is offering the WA versus a party that will re negotiate the WA and come back in a couple of months with exactly the same thing on different coloured paper.

No, Labour's proposals are for a permanent Custom Unions, removing the need for the backstop in its present form.

kalych

joe40 wrote: »

Sinn fein have been very clear in their position...

Reads exactly like "Brexit means Brexit"..."Red lines...", etc.

I'm not in the business of bashing SF, but surely their electorate might have a changed their opinion since 2017 after all that's happened. To claim that nothing has changed is as diluted as the DUP position of "no regulatory divergence from the UK" while refusing to align on marriage rights and pro-choice.

SF could have at least done a party members poll on this.

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

I don't see how it would be a referendum?

You'd be voting for the Withdrawal Agreement on one hand, but only in a few constituencies where there is someone following the Tory party line and in the Mogg following constituencies you'd still be voting for No Deal. The alternative option being another bunch of negotiations to come to the same result, but the negotiations carried out by a bloke with a beard which would be the only significant difference in the end.

Would just be a party that is offering the WA versus a party that will re negotiate the WA and come back in a couple of months with exactly the same thing on different coloured paper.

I wouldn't agree. Labour's stated position (and that of the bearded bloke) is to have a Customs Union plus other closer ties. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members (despite the bearded bloke who has now fallen into step) want a Norway style Brexit.

lawred2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And this hardline attitude makes a hard border all the more likely.
Sad really but there you go.
As I said it was pie in the sky that they would intervene to help Ireland in its hour of need. They are just going to sit on their hands and take the wages and expenses and do nothing.

I get it.

zzzzzz

Every few weeks this lame tripe gets trotted out.

Brexit is not a problem of SF's making. They are not going to go back on decades (arguably centuries) worth of abstentionist policy.

Kermit.de.frog

Jaysus, Theresa May does not look or sound well opening the debate.

CelticRambler

OFFS - with much dramatic arm waving, Sky business guy reporting sterling's "tumble" and showing a 24-hour chart.

Put up a 3-month chart, mister, so that people can see the big picture! :mad: Sterling has steadily risen from £1=1.10€ to £1=1.16€.

"Nothing has changed" in the last week (unless you're into swapping huge sums)

lawred2

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

ToBeFrank123

joe40 wrote: »

Sinn fein have been very clear in their position, their overarching aim is the establishment of a united Ireland.
Whether or not agree with this is up to yourself, but they are were elected in the north on a platform of non attendance at Westminster. That was their manifesto.
Now people think that should be torn up. Things like democratic mandate must mean nothing to some people.
Every single person that voted for a Sinn Fein MP knew they would not attend Westminster.
The way some people talk you would think that was a decision they made on a whim. I don't support Sinn Fein but I totally support their position in this.

Plus that last sentence that they were in a position to form a government... What are you talking about?

There isn't the slightest prospect of a United Ireland in the next 50 years, none. NI will suffer under a hard border but will in the long run cope. Likewise according to recent polls 19% of the population in the south oppose unity and would likely oppose it even more if NI is impoverished. So the long game isn't working for them.

A hard border on the other hand is very possible, and not in 50 years time.

Its all hypothetical anyways - I said that in my original post.

Wheeliebin30

Can they not come to some agreement like the GFA where the people in the north vote in a few years to keep the backstop or not?

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Do you understand what the documents are?

And please don't say nothing has changed because if you say that, you don't understand what they are.

I will ask you again to explain what the documents are. Here's your big chance to prove you understand what happened last night.

Regards the DUP, they have a long history of saying No when they don't understand something. They are certainly consistent in that regards.

So TBF123, are you seeing something that almost no one else is seeing in these documents?

The AG, the ERG legals boffiins, the DUP, EU, Irish government. Everyone else is simply wrong because they don't seem to have the deep understanding that you have.

I don't need to prove anything. You claimed that things had significantly changed. I am asking you to provide details of these significant changes as it appears that most don't agree.

Cryptopagan

lawred2 wrote: »

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

ToBeFrank123

lawred2 wrote: »

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

Agreed. They and other brexiteers sh*t their pants at the last leadership election. They don't want to be leaders only to shout from the sidelines. Pathetic.

lawred2

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

At least she tried though.

robinph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wouldn't agree. Labour's stated position (and that of the bearded bloke) is to have a Customs Union plus other closer ties. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members (despite the bearded bloke who has now fallen into step) want a Norway style Brexit.

But they would still need to get 50% of the MP's to agree to it, would be closer than currently but is there enough who will go for it? Admittedly any new Labour seats would presumably be onside, but unless they got a massive majority and didn't need SNP or LibDem votes as well not sure you could be certain of a clear decision being possible still regardless of what colour tie the PM is wearing.

kilns

If this gets voted through it would not be a surprise as alot of these MPs are gutless, some who voted against are coming out saying they will vote yes due to significant changes, who are they kidding!!

ToBeFrank123

Leroy42 wrote: »

So TBF123, are you seeing something that almost no one else is seeing in these documents?

The AG, the ERG legals boffiins, the DUP, EU, Irish government. Everyone else is simply wrong because they don't seem to have the deep understanding that you have.

I don't need to prove anything. You claimed that things had significantly changed. I am asking you to provide details of these significant changes as it appears that most don't agree.

I'm seeing legally codified mechanisms to leave, not a gentleman's agreement that its ok to leave which is not worth the paper its (not) written on.

It also forces everyone to act in good faith.

It also forces everyone to come up with an alternative to the backstop.

And it prevents the EU keeping the UK tied in permanently to the backstop.

As a last resort, a hard border between NI/UK mainland will come into force but only after all other mechanisms have been tried.

IT KICKS THE HARD BORDER YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.

This last sentence is important. It will give everyone time to breathe but most importantly it gives a chance to a future UK government who doesn't have the DUP breathing down their necks or is not dependent on them.

There's no perfect WA. Its either an imperfect WA or potentially hard Brexit.

Hurrache

Official No from the party that likes to say no. The clowns finish by saying the EU has been intransigent and says that all sides need to be reasonable.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1105470836042067968

Larbre34

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

At least she tried until she ran out of road, used up all political capital and destroyed any legacy she had as a public servant. Cameron just ****ed off when things warmed up.

The earliest practical date for a UK GE is April 25th, (or even May day tee hee). An request to extend A50 and a Tory leadership contest will have to come very quickly now, assuming the required 2/3 of Parliament back the GE being called.

Right now, my money would be on Jezza Hunt to win the leadership.

Kermit.de.frog

Tory MPs openly saying to journalists now that if the deal is voted down tonight it will lead to a general election. "Dysfunctional parliament".

upupup

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Jaysus, Theresa May does not look or sound well opening the debate.

She looked bad last night too!...The stress of all this is clearly affecting her now.

Leroy42

Didn't JCJ state at yesterday presser that any extension could only be until May elections?

And what is forgotten in all this talk of extensions is that it really doesn't matter if its May or June. The Parliament closes in mid April to prepare for new elections, so any new agreement, in terms of different from the current WA, would need to be ratified by the parliament and that requires the parliament to be sitting.

So Mid April is really where any extension actually runs to (on the basis that changes are required).

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

But they would still need to get 50% of the MP's to agree to it, would be closer than currently but is there enough who will go for it? Admittedly any new Labour seats would presumably be onside, but unless they got a massive majority and didn't need SNP or LibDem votes as well not sure you could be certain of a clear decision being possible still regardless of what colour tie the PM is wearing.

If the next GE is focused on Brexit only, and Labour campaigns on a second referendum and/or Norway style Brexit, then it will be a binary choice between Labour and a hardish Brexit Tory party. While a number of Leave Labour MPs will drift away to being independent, I think more soft Brexit Tories will have had enough of the ERG and will join the TIGs/become independent.

In that scenario, Labour could well increase their number of MPs. Also, until Brexit is resolved, the SNP, Lib Dems and Tigs would happily provide confidence and supply support which should give Labour a comfortable majority to work with the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the next GE is focused on Brexit only, and Labour campaigns on a second referendum and or Norway style Brexit, then it will be a binary choice between Labour and a hardish Brexit Tory party. While a number of Leave Labour MPs will drift away to being independent, I think more soft Brexit Tories will have had enough of the ERG and will join the TIGs/become independent.

In that scenario, Labour could well increase their number of MPs. Also, until Brexit is resolved, the SNP, Lib Dems and Tigs would happily provide confidence and supply support which should give Labour a comfortable majority to work with the EU.

That's what Labour should have done from the beginning. Instead, they dithered and dallied and now they're behind in the polls and have lost 9 MP's. Corbyn isn't going to change now. It's too late unless there's a second referendum and he picks the right side for once.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what Labour should have done from the beginning. Instead, they dithered and dallied and now they're behind in the polls and have lost 9 MP's. Corbyn isn't going to change now. It's too late unless there's a second referendum and he picks the right side for once.

I think Corbyn is under enormous pressure. Even Momentum disagrees with him now. He doesn't wield anything like the power he used to and, increasingly, he's looking like a stranger in his own party. I think he will either slip away or represent what the overwhelming majority of Labour members want, which is a second referendum. He won't be given a choice.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's not their country

Northern Ireland isn't the country of the SF MPs? Seriously?

Northern Ireland needs them now more than ever in order to avoid a hard Brexit, yet they sit on their hands.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think Corbyn is under enormous pressure. Even Momentum disagrees with him now. He doesn't wield anything like the power he used to and, increasingly, he's looking like a stranger in his own party. I think he will either slip away or represent what the overwhelming majority of Labour members want, which is a second referendum. He won't be given a choice.

I can't imagine that Momentum have been quiet about this though. They can't just have switched to being pro-People's Vote. They must have had this stance for a while. I suspect the left-Eurosceptics like McDonnell and Milne are the ones who are really standing in the way.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm seeing legally codified mechanisms to leave, not a gentleman's agreement that its ok to leave which is not worth the paper its (not) written on.
Already in the WA

It also forces everyone to act in good faith.
You can't force someone to act in good faith, only force them to pretend that's what they're doing, so any such "guarantee" is not worth the paper it's written on

It also forces everyone to come up with an alternative to the backstop.
You can't force someone to come up with an alternative, only force them to pretend that what they're doing, so any such "guarantee" is not worth the paper it's written on

And it prevents the EU keeping the UK tied in permanently to the backstop.
Not if you believe that the EU is duplicitous, in which it can pretend it's being compliant (see above)

As a last resort, a hard border between NI/UK mainland will come into force but only after all other mechanisms have been tried.
Already provided for by the WA

IT KICKS THE HARD BORDER YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.
Already provided for by the WA

This last sentence is important. It will give everyone time to breathe but most importantly it gives a chance to a future UK government who doesn't have the DUP breathing down their necks or is not dependent on them.
Already provided for by the WA

In other words, nothing new. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. For once, I agree with the DUP on something!