Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

robinph

Asking the question of what party MP do you want is also the wrong question to be asking if the answer you are looking for is to do with the deal/ no deal/ remain in the EU question. You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

Unless they say they are going to run another GE again 6 months afterwards and they have dealt with Brexit one way or another. A general election of MP's is the wrong way of deciding a referendum question just as much as asking a vague non-binding referendum question that you've not properly thought through the options and consequences of is.

PokeHerKing

blanch152 wrote:

Northern Ireland needs them now more than ever in order to avoid a hard Brexit, yet they sit on their hands.

What are you talking about? What could sinn fein do to stop a hard BREXIT?

4068ac1elhodqr

(€1.16) GBPvEUR is running at it's strongest value since May 2017,
yet the DUP (and others) still aren't keen on the latest plan.

ToBeFrank123

CelticRambler wrote: »

In other words, nothing new. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. For once, I agree with the DUP on something!

There isn't going to be a better deal than this, unless you tear up the GFA which I have a feeling is the DUP's long game.

This is the deal. So everyone takes the deal and we kick a Hard Border several years down the road hopefully to a point where a future UK government is not dependent on the DUP, or they reject the WA and a hard border becomes far more likely.

Why have people trouble accepting the least worst option? There's no good options, just the least worst one. The worst one is Hard Brexit, the least worst is WA. Simple!

The Brexiteers will do everything in their power to prevent a second referendum as they know they probably will lose.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can't imagine that Momentum have been quiet about this though. They can't just have switched to being pro-People's Vote. They must have had this stance for a while. I suspect the left-Eurosceptics like McDonnell and Milne are the ones who are really standing in the way.

Probably. But they are a small cabal and there is significant and growing pushback under Watson. If there isn't an election, 81% of Momentum members want a second referendum. If Momentum abandons Crobyn and McDonnell then they have no support whatsoever within the Labour party.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105471645920182272

CelticRambler

robinph wrote: »

Asking the question of what party MP do you want is also the wrong question to be asking if the answer you are looking for is to do with the deal/ no deal/ remain in the EU question. You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

I wonder if there's any chance that a gaggle of sitting and potential MPs could get together and create a single-use-only "national unity for the negotiation and management of Brexit" party? Go to the country on the basis of a one-term mandate, arguing that neither Labour nor the Tories have been able to attract sufficient support for a single, workable Brexit proposal. Given the significance of Brexit for the UK, they could ask the electorate to suspend party allegiances for the duration of one election cycle and return MPs who commit to working together for the good of the country.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Probably. But they are a small cabal and there is significant and growing pushback under Watson. If there isn't an election, 81% of Momentum members want a second referendum. If Momentum abandons Crobyn and McDonnell then they have no support whatsoever within the Labour party.

They might be small but they are wielding disproportionate influence over Labour policy. In other areas like Health and Education, they might be in sync with the membership but on Brexit they are miles out.

It'll be interesting to see how the Watson endeavour pans out.

Kermit.de.frog

Has Theresa May just promised Stormont a veto on the backstop coming in to force!?

I'm fairly sure she has just said that in the commons.

ancapailldorcha

On another note, as someone who fervently wants to remain I have no idea whether or not I want the WA to pass tonight. Funnily how the Tweet from An Ciarraioch above only pictures little more than a 10% reduction in the margin by which the WA was defeated last time.

Enzokk

Cryptopagan wrote: »

No, Labour's proposals are for a permanent Custom Unions, removing the need for the backstop in its present form.

And yet that will still not solve the border issue but it will go a good chunk of the way. You will still need to have some new checks between NI and the UK to ensure no borders but saying that aloud will not be the way to go for Labour as it will be spun that they are breaking up the UK.

CelticRambler wrote: »

OFFS - with much dramatic arm waving, Sky business guy reporting sterling's "tumble" and showing a 24-hour chart.

Put up a 3-month chart, mister, so that people can see the big picture! :mad: Sterling has steadily risen from £1=1.10€ to £1=1.16€.

"Nothing has changed" in the last week (unless you're into swapping huge sums)

It has to start from somewhere though and it has lost £0.02 value in a morning in a currency that is usually quite stable against the EUR.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They might be small but they are wielding disproportionate influence over Labour policy. In other areas like Health and Education, they might be in sync with the membership but on Brexit they are miles out.

It'll be interesting to see how the Watson endeavour pans out.

It will. There were 160 MPs at his recent meeting. Not a bad start.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

It has to start from somewhere though and it has lost £0.02 value in a morning in a currency that is usually quite stable against the EUR.

I've been waiting for it to "tumble" below 1.15 for two months, preferably down to about 1.12-1.10. That's my starting point.

kilns

What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc

Professor Moriarty

kilns wrote: »

What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc

Check out the graph about ten posts up.

Enzokk

kilns wrote: »

What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc

She needs 115 MPs to change their minds from the last vote. At last count she is at 10.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1105481060714987521

So worst case scenario is she loses by a small enough margin to give May the will to fight for another vote in a few weeks instead of resigning, right?

kilns

I wonder what are the chances more Labour jump ship and vote for the deal too?

Seth Brundle

PokeHerKing wrote: »

What could sinn fein do to stop a hard BREXIT?

They could pop into Westminster and encourage every MP to side with them and support a hard Brexit. That will get everyone in behind May before long.

Leroy42

TM has just stated in HoC

May says the government will legislate to ensure that regulatory standards in Great Britain remain the same as in Nothern Ireland. This will address concerns that the backstop could lead to regulatory divergence between NI and GB.

The government has already promised to do this, but May is now committing to make this a legislative obligation.

So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?

Seth Brundle

kilns wrote: »

I wonder what are the chances more Labour jump ship and vote for the deal too?

Well their leader had this to say earlier...

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1105367225051996161

boggerman1

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM has just stated in HoC


So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?

Making it up as she goes along.its plain to see the pressure has got to the woman and someone needs to shout enough is enough.

Kermit.de.frog

The Moggster is on Sky News now.

ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

kilns

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Well their leader had this to say earlier...

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1105367225051996161

Corbyn is a lame duck also, Labour MPs could easily go against his wishes. If Labour had strong leadership, a GE would be the best solution, take away all the power the DUP and ERG have

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Moggster is on Sky News now.

ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And this hardline attitude makes a hard border all the more likely.

A hard Brexit with a hard border on the Island will decimate NI, and make a United Ireland more likely as moderates look across the hard border at EU membership. SF win again.

kilns

lawred2 wrote: »

ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP

He is very dangerous, he holds so much power, if the ERG decide to en bloc support May, you can be sure he financially will be ready i.e going long GBP and will make millions

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Why have people trouble accepting the least worst option? There's no good options, just the least worst one. The worst one is Hard Brexit, the least worst is WA. Simple!

Wrong!


The least worst is Remain.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Moggster is on Sky News now.

ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

Or just as likely, if not more, abstain.

robindch

lawred2 wrote: »

ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP

ERG only give shoites about the ERG.

robindch

Leroy42 wrote: »

So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?

If NI remains in the Customs' Union (which it has to do in order to avoid a border between RofI and NI, as required by the GFA), then (in order to prevent a border between NI and GB, as required by the DUP) GB must remain within the Customs' Union too.

Customs' Union membership means remaining subject to ECJ rulings and that was one of the red lines which TM plonked onto the floor, apparently before she'd either understood what the Customs' Union is, nor what the ECJ is for, nor anything at all about NI, RofI or the GFA.

It's all a bit three-letter-acronymy.