Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Not looking good for the deal right now. With DUP 100% against...

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105490036873674752

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1105430540818235392

This is quite true, and depressing.

An Ciarraioch

Hurrache wrote: »

Corbyn continues to be a joke.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105460280069443584

Unfortunately, vote leaching to the Greens merely increases the Tory seat numbers.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

I wonder if there's any chance that a gaggle of sitting and potential MPs could get together and create a single-use-only "national unity for the negotiation and management of Brexit" party? Go to the country on the basis of a one-term mandate, arguing that neither Labour nor the Tories have been able to attract sufficient support for a single, workable Brexit proposal. Given the significance of Brexit for the UK, they could ask the electorate to suspend party allegiances for the duration of one election cycle and return MPs who commit to working together for the good of the country.

It should be the "National Unity for the Management of Brexit" party, then they would be NUMB. :pac:

TIGgers not withstanding, I think the party system is too entrenched in the UK to see any significant realighnment of politics over Brexit, the existing parties will continue on in dysfunction rather than allowing new groupings to emerge.

Laois_Man

joe40 wrote: »

This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

1Passing WA tonight
2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
4Second referendum
5GE
6Labour win go for customs union
7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles

(first part of ) 2, followed by 5, followed by 7, followed by withdrawal with a customs border down the Irish sea

But everyone is guessing of course

Hurrache

Inquitus wrote: »

This could pass without the DUP if all the ERG vote for it.

I think there's some remainer Tories that will vote against it though because they don't want Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

Grieve to vote against

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105504910601306112

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105505917838282752

RobMc59

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Grieve to vote against

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105504910601306112

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105505917838282752

Grieve is one of the few tories who speaks sense.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sammy Wilson (who comes across as a glorified County Councilor way out of his depth in that interview) just confirmed DUP are not abstaining, they are voting against.

To be fair Sammy Shítstirrer isnt even worth listening to. He's a blatent prime example of the 3 I's that landed Britain in this mess: Idiocy, Ignorance and Ideology with a bit of Arrogance mixed in for good measure. Even more he represents the prime examples of how unfit the DUP is for any sort of government.

At this point if the agreements rejected again there should be only 2 options given: Abandon Brexit or Crash Out. Call their BS bluff and let these political idiots sink in the swamp of their own ignominy and stupidity. They want to turn their country into an Internet Meme let em go ahead and just wait it out until they eventually cop on or disintegrate altogether.

There's no point in arguing with these idiots in the end it's better to let em learn the hard way since they were given EVERY opportunity for an out.

Water John

115 have to change from No to Yes, not a chance. The numbers ATM look like 12 Con and 2 Lb. Would think the ERG have about 60 votes who will decide at a meeting at 5 o'clock. They might let everyone vote as they wish, without a recommendation, esp if they have internal differences.

J Mysterio

CelticRambler wrote: »

I've been waiting for it to "tumble" below 1.15 for two months, preferably down to about 1.12-1.10. That's my starting point.

Starting point for what... Are you going to invest

Synode

J Mysterio wrote: »

Starting point for what... Are you going to invest

Can't speak for that poster but if it gets to 0.95 i'll buy sterling and head North to make some large purchases

Leroy42

I just spotted this nugget from the Guardian Live feed on the HoC TM speech today

First, she said the government would legislate to give the Northern Ireland assembly a say on whether the backstop gets brought into force if new border arrangements are not ready by 2020. If Stormont opposed the backstop, ministers would have to extend the transition instead.

So if they cannot agree a deal at any point prior to the start of a backstop, we could, technically see SF having the final say on whether the UK stays within the EU or not?

I mean, even taking out SF, she is saying that NI will have the final say on whether the UK leaves the EU in terms of transition. That is simply mental.

VinLieger

Synode wrote: »

Can't speak for that poster but if it gets to 0.95 i'll buy sterling and head North to make some large purchases

Your assuming any shops will still be open if it hits 0.95

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

That makes a very big assumption that the South isn't decimated too by a hard Brexit. There is a possibility that we would be hit even harder than NI, particularly as we are falling from a higher baseline.

Thats a rather meaningless statement, yes there is a possibility, but very very little probability that we would be hit anything near as hard as NI.

Adamcp898

Synode wrote: »

Can't speak for that poster but if it gets to 0.95 i'll buy sterling and head North to make some large purchases

You're assuming that you'd even be allowed over the border with euros if the rate ever hit that :pac:

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Thats a rather meaningless statement, yes there is a possibility, but very very little probability that we would be hit anything near as hard as NI.

And we will/can recover because we are still part of a strong union. The UK and NI will struggle for a long time to recover.

Synode

VinLieger wrote: »

Your assuming any shops will still be open if it hits 0.95

They'll be open alright. Got my last IMac up there in 08 or 09 when sterling weakened considerably.

Adamcp898 wrote: »

You're assuming that you'd even be allowed over the border with euros if the rate ever hit that :pac:

Revolut is the way forward these days

gooch2k9

Synode wrote: »

They'll be open alright. Got my last IMac up there in 08 or 09 when sterling weakened considerably.



Revolut is the way forward these days

Be aware a lot of tech companies bumped prices 20% up after the referendum when sterling fell then. Wouldn't be surprising if they do the same if it drops further. It's actually better value to buy a OnePlus 6T in Ireland now for example.



Seems to be a lot of different groupings voting against this for a lot of different reasons. They need a tightly regulated referendum to settle this. Then they need to sort out their disfunctional political system. This parties within parties is ridiculous.

Seasoft

The objection to the backstop centered around parts of the UK being treated differently from the rest. TM's assertion to allow NI and only NI to have a say on the backstop in 2020 is treating part of the UK differently than the rest.
Pure hypocrisy.

Kermit.de.frog

Seasoft wrote: »

The objection to the backstop centered around parts of the UK being treated differently from the rest. TM's assertion to allow NI and only NI to have a say on the backstop in 2020 is treating part of the UK differently than the rest.
Pure hypocrisy.

The EU has not agreed to that.

Again it's the UK talking to itself.

First Up

Seasoft wrote:

The objection to the backstop centered around parts of the UK being treated differently from the rest. TM's assertion to allow NI and only NI to have a say on the backstop in 2020 is treating part of the UK differently than the rest. Pure hypocrisy.

Pure reality. It is different.

J Mysterio

Owen Patterson going on about 'consent' in NI, while calling for a No Deal Brexit. What a gimp.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Corbyn continues to be a joke.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105460280069443584

I agree that the polls look terrible for Labour and Corbyn, yet has the NHS been supported in the past 2 years? How has knife crime been going? How about wages for people? It will be easier for Labour to pivot no staying in the EU and starting to fix the problems in the UK through years of austerity than for the Tories who is all in on Brexit which will mean people are worse off.

If politicians believed the poll numbers they would have been agitating for an election already to enhance the Tory majority, the fact that they haven't should tell you something, whatever the polls say at the moment.

Kermit.de.frog

The thing about a lot of these Brexiteers is that it's not even about the UK - or a "sovereign" UK.

It's a deeper (I would describe as almost psychotic with some of them) anti EU agenda. They hate the EU.

I don't understand why even if you take in to account the EU deficiencies there is such hatred for it.

Hurrache

Did the DUP abstain or vote during the first meaningful vote? Surely if they're voting against it today then that's an end to their confidence and supply bribe?

gooch2k9

Hurrache wrote: »

Did the DUP abstain or vote during the first meaningful vote? Surely if they're voting against it today then that's an end to their confidence and supply bribe?

They were against. Neither side will end the deal(C&S) so no it carries on. Ridiculous in the extreme.

J Mysterio

There's actually no one in the HOC? Are they all away plotting?

Hurrache

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that the polls look terrible for Labour and Corbyn, yet has the NHS been supported in the past 2 years? How has knife crime been going? How about wages for people?

None of which has anything to do with Corbyn's epic incompetence of course.

MrMusician18

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The thing about a lot of these Brexiteers is that it's not even about the UK - or a "sovereign" UK.

It's a deeper (I would describe as almost psychotic with some of them) anti EU agenda. They hate the EU.

I don't understand why even if you take in to account the EU deficiencies there is such hatred for it.

Indeed. The hate is visceral, consequently many of them wouldn't be able to tell you why they feel the way they do. Not with any logic anyway.