Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

J Mysterio wrote: »

There's actually no one in the HOC? Are they all away plotting?

LOL, I literally tried counting the few that were there before the camera moved away from the wide shot. I got to 16 on one side anyway.

Frank Bullitt

What time is the vote at?

Headshot

Gintonious wrote: »

What time is the vote at?

7pm

First Up

Boris has had a haircut - his most significant contribution for quite some time. Might he be expecting May's resignation or another heave?

Itssoeasy

I've just seen a bit of Theresa May talking earlier in the HOC. Jaysus help us she sounded shook.

CelticRambler

J Mysterio wrote: »

Starting point for what... Are you going to invest

My use of the phrase "starting point" was borrowed from Enzokk's response to my earlier post about Sky using a 24-hour time frame to illustrate the plunge in the value of sterling. This is only the same as [who was it? banned since] using comparisons with 10 years ago to show how the British economy is doing really well.

I last bought sterling at 1.10 (0.91) (Dec) and last sold it at 1.15 (0.87) (Feb). I have an English shopping trip planned for April so was hoping sterling would plunge in value before I go. Right now, if you ignore 24-hour spikes and troughs, it's been on a steady upward trend for the last three months.



So yes, there are some speculators gambling on Attorney General announcements and HoC meaningless votes, but overall, the currency markets have not reacted negatively to anything Westminster has done or said in the last three months. That could be taken to mean that the markets (taking their lead from the City of London?) don't believe there'll be a chaotic Brexit, that the TM will somehow get the WA approved by the 29th. I'm coming 'round to the idea that that's the same false confidence that was recently reported in the (UK) government's Brexit Impact Assessment. If that bubble bursts on the rock of a no-deal exit, there'll be hell to pay for British businesses.

Kermit.de.frog

BTW the debate is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KilLxiMO50A

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

Tacitus Kilgore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

:pac:

Kermit.de.frog

Mod: Enough one-liners please.

Water John

Sky were saying earlier that it feels strange. That you don't have the feverish rushing around of the whips etc.
Chris Walker Con MP, I think was on earlier and said Gov't cannot continue in this way.
A defeat for TM this evening means the end of this Govn't, maybe not immediately but will be it's death knell.
Getting her Deal passed with it then being put to the people, may be coming attractive.

enda1

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

First Up

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

So is the Parliament.

BluePlanet

enda1 wrote: »

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

Exactly, which is why as things stand today, the EU should say No to an extension.

J Mysterio

Crabb saying the Backstop was an EU concession and an achievement of UK diplomacy, despite the fact the UK didnt plan enough and didn't think ahead.

Says that those believing it 'traps the UK' are conspiracy theorists and people must not trash the Backstop . Supporting May deal.

prawnsambo

May never used the nuclear weapon against the ERG: Vote for my deal or I'll call a general election. Nothing would concentrate minds more than the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn getting into No. 10.

Akrasia

enda1 wrote: »

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

Because the chance of them revoking article 50 without a 2nd refeeendum is very remote, and if the EU tries to play hardball in the last two weeks it makes a crash out more likely because even if they vote to rule out No Deal, unless they vote for something the default is still no deal

BluePlanet

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Indeed. The hate is visceral, consequently many of them wouldn't be able to tell you why they feel the way they do. Not with any logic anyway.

It's an emotional reaction.
I think its because the "EU" represents the French and Germans getting along greatly and the Brits are the odd man out.
They hate the French and Germans ergo they hate the EU.

robindch

enda1 wrote: »

Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

One obvious choice is for the EU to extend Article 50 to December 2020 or 2021 to allow a Final Agreement to be negotiated. That would mean there’s no WA needed, hence no backstop either.

It would require the EU and UK to agree to conclude this final agreement by then in the first place - which they’ve already done, kind of - but given the UK’s erratic behaviour, negligible negotiating talent and preference for internal bickering over external discussions, it’s perhaps a little ambitious to expect this to arrive on time.

robindch

prawnsambo wrote: »

May never used the nuclear weapon against the ERG: Vote for my deal or I'll call a general election.

Didnt TM say last year that she would not lead the Tories in the next general election campaign?

Throughout this omnishambles, TM has been quite consistent in only two things a) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep the Tories united and b) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep her in as PM.

L1011

robindch wrote: »

Didnt TM say last year that she would not lead the Tories in the next general election campaign?

Throughout this omnishambles, TM has been quite consistent in only two things a) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep the Tories united and b) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep her in as PM.

Next *scheduled* GE was the claim. Allows weaselling out of it for a snap one

GM228

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1105531020575678466?s=19

Let there be no illusions here.

demfad

Choices now:
1: Short extension=May's deal will pass during extension
2: Long extension=no-brexit
3: No-deal can only happen now on March 29th IMO

If the vote is close tonight 1: is more likely.

Expect zealots to try and induce chaos and true saboteurs to try and force default no-deal

Mr.Nice Guy

Was watching the report from the BBC's Emma Vardy on the border. Speaks to some schoolkids and is sure to include the one boy who thinks Brexit would be a good idea in her report. Also the inclusion of the 'Welcome to Muff' sign since it's all a big laugh.

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

Strongly disagree. Leaving the EU could make you and your local community worse off for 50 years.

10000maniacs

joe40 wrote: »

This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

1Passing WA tonight
2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
4Second referendum
5GE
6Labour win go for customs union
7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles

The EU are not going to extend Article 50 if May's deal fails.

prawnsambo

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1105531020575678466?s=19

Let there be no illusions here.

Completely pant-wettingly bonkers that he has to say this. To a parliament. Of an EU member state. Who have been in the throes of an exit negotiation based on a five section Article of the Treaty of Lisbon for almost three years.

joe40

demfad wrote: »

Choices now:
1: Short extension=May's deal will pass during extension
2: Long extension=no-brexit
3: No-deal can only happen now on March 29th IMO

If the vote is close tonight 1: is more likely.

Expect zealots to try and induce chaos and true saboteurs to try and force default no-deal

I thought juncker said there would not be a third vote.
The clown Jeffrey Donaldson was on this morning still spouting the nonsense line that more concessions can be gotten between now and the 29th

Calltocall

So projections are that tm will lose this vote by over 100 votes, all that effort, last minute talks for nothing, are they that inept that they couldn’t see this was the likely outcome, a waste of time, only outcome now realistically is an extension

Spanish Eyes

Calltocall wrote: »

So projections are that tm will lose this vote by over 100 votes, all that effort, last minute talks for nothing, are they that inept that they couldn’t see this was the likely outcome, a waste of time, only outcome now realistically is an extension

An extension for what though? No one in Parliament or HoC seems to know what might be achieved by an extension to A50.

Baffled again me.

liamtech

a short term extension is pointless - i think a longer one but it would be contingent on a complete change of approach and that would be a General Election