Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Junkyard Tom

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Maybe Victorian levels of growth.

Victorian levels of material inequality, at best.

The sole reason the EU won't budge on the backstop is to trap the UK in the CU

This is utter nonsense. Even if Ireland didn't exist T-May would still have lost that vote.

as they know the UK will make mincemeat of them in a competitive market out there.

Except Britain wouldn't be up against the EU in a race to the bottom, it would be up against regions like South East Asia. Let's just say if the Tories managed to 'slash slash slash' like excites you, well, the riots would make 2011 look like a marshmallow toasting festival.

Seth Brundle

dresden8 wrote: »

Default crash out is a no deal crashout. Forbidden by Parliament.

Is this the great gamble and end game?

It cant be forbidden. It is the current path unless they change course. They've 17 days to go and It will be a no deal exit

cryptocurrency

Popeleo wrote: »

Libertarian nonsense. That explains the username.

Seems I am allowed to be abused. Yes I am a libertarian and strong believer in free markets. You are right my interest in Crypto come from my libertarian beliefs.

joe40

dresden8 wrote: »

No deal vote wins tomorrow.

Extension vote passes, EU says NON!

Parliament has blocked no deal. Parliament doesn't accept current deal.

Logically and legally does that mean an Article 50 revocation is unavoidable?

Or they just vote a third time and accepts May's.
A lot of the no vote are people trying to stop/ delay brexit. So if there is no extension I think they would take Mays deal rather than crash out. Apart from Erg and DUP would anyone serioussly allow no deal to happen.

prawnsambo

dresden8 wrote: »

No deal vote wins tomorrow.

Extension vote passes, EU says NON!

Parliament has blocked no deal. Parliament doesn't accept current deal.

Logically and legally does that mean an Article 50 revocation is unavoidable?

Parliament can block no deal as an action of parliament. It can't stop it happening though. They're on the slope and can't get off unless they actually do something about it. Sitting there and bleating that they don't want no deal is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard. The edge is only a couple of weeks away.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How would that happen if Parliament voted against No Deal. Do you mean that because EU refuse to carry on the debacle (no extension), that UK will just HAVE to leave with no deal.

My apologies, it is difficult to keep up sometimes.

That's my understanding. The default legal position is to leave without a deal as they HoC vote has no bearing on the EU or EU law. Open to correction.

Seth Brundle

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I see the anti-Democratic and anti-competition the EU club has become. I am seriously concerned about its protectionist nature and its drive for centralisation. They have made no secret of their plans for a federal Europe and a single army. Merkel yesterday even suggested an EU aircraft carrier. I find this profoundly alarming and hope great nations like the US and the UK will put a stop to this expansionary ideas. I see Brexit as a significant step towards the ultimate break up of the EU to a free trade club is 28 nations with standards. That's it, that all it should ever be.

Jesus does your nonsense ever stop?

dresden8

Donald Trump wrote: »

No. I wouldn't think so. Their Parliament saying they don't want "no deal" is just another example of them saying what they don't want rather than what they want.


Brexit means Brexit out on their arses on 29th March is the default position unless something else happens. Doesn't matter what the talk about internally in their own parliament.

Parliament not agreeing a deal and not allowing no deal gives May a mandate to revoke.

And then resigning giving everybody two fingers.

She has said this deal or no Brexit already.

Popeleo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Seems I am allowed to be abused. Yes I am a libertarian and strong believer in free markets. You are right my interest in Crypto come from my libertarian beliefs.

That is 100% not abuse.

seamus

copperhead wrote: »

Ii would be surprised if the EU caved at this stage and offered a better deal, from my limited understanding I thought iy was a good deal that was on the table, the EU cannot be seen to give too much away as it creates a dangerous precedent

The EU can't cave on the backstop.

If the EU caves, then it might as well start dismantling itself.

The integrity of the EU is more important than letting the UK leave with a deal.

So the UK has ironically left the EU with no more options. The UK produced a list of demands so specific and so ignorant of geopolitics, that it left no wiggle room in the final deal.

The UK needs to understand that the EU will not sacrifice itself to save the UK. That is why the deal is the only deal.

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

No chance of the EU rejecting an extension request.

Ireland will support it, and a No Deal crash out hits Ireland worse than any member state.

Rejecting an extension request would allow the DUP, ERG et. al continue to play the 'intransigent EU' card, and wax on about the bullies in Brussels. EU not that stupid.

We're looking at an extension and more months of Westminster trying to put off facing reality.

Eh, there's definitely a chance of the EU rejecting it or insisting on accompanying terms that the UK can't stomach. Ireland is but one voice of 27:

https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/under-which-conditions-would-the-eu27-agree-to-an-article-50-extension/

jmayo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is a disaster. However, a snap GE right now would essentially be a Brexit referendum. With, probably, the Tories campaigning on a relatively hardish Brexit and Labour campaigning on a relatively softish Brexit/second referendum.

But what about the Tories that want remain ?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what Labour should have done from the beginning. Instead, they dithered and dallied and now they're behind in the polls and have lost 9 MP's. Corbyn isn't going to change now. It's too late unless there's a second referendum and he picks the right side for once.

Ehh some of those MPs left due to other things like Corbyn's unwillingness to deal with antisemitism.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Labour/Corbyn's dithering serves a purpose. If Britain crashes out the CONs will take the blame leaving Labour to promise a new Britain in the wake of Brexit allowing it to reorganise the British economy.

Corbyn's ideas, given free rein, would finally sink the place.
He would reorganise what would be left of Britain's economy back to the early 70s, without all the industry that actually still existed back then.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Posted here a while. Strong anti EU feelings are met with some sort of disbelief here. I see the short term pain of brexit as a massive long term gain for mankind.

I am anti federalist EU and I know that is frowned upon by a lot around here, but what the Brits think they can do and get is laughable.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Maybe Victorian levels of growth. Slash regulation and taxes...slash slash slash. The sole reason the EU won't budge on the backstop is to trap the UK in the CU as they know the UK will make mincemeat of them in a competitive market out there.

Oh jaysus the delusion.
Have you been on Question Time recently by any chance ?

Donald Trump

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How would that happen if Parliament voted against No Deal. Do you mean that because EU refuse to carry on the debacle (no extension), that UK will just HAVE to leave with no deal.

My apologies, it is difficult to keep up sometimes.

Article 50 was triggered about 2 years ago. They gave notice that they would leave at the end of this month


Basically, the train was set on its tracks and since then has been hurtling towards a wall.


The 2 year period could be extended by unanimous agreement of all EU members.



Or the European court found that UK could unilaterally revoke their triggering of Article 50.


Other than that, the process continues as expected. Regardless of what happens in the HoC. HoC is internal to UK.

Spanish Eyes

dresden8 wrote: »

Parliament not agreeing a deal and not allowing no deal gives May a mandate to revoke.

And then resigning giving everybody two fingers.

She has said this deal or no Brexit already.

Well that's what I heard from TM also, but it was low key, i.e. was not foremost in MSM or commentary. Could come in from left field though.

We shall see.

I always thought that if everything failed she would revoke and resign same day.

We can live in hope.

prawnsambo

dresden8 wrote: »

Parliament not agreeing a deal and not allowing no deal gives May a mandate to revoke.

And then resigning giving everybody two fingers.

She has said this deal or no Brexit already.

I'm not sure that would follow the 'constitutional provisions' test that the ECJ set. It doesn't actually follow logically that a vote against no deal is a vote to rescind.

cryptocurrency

Chong wrote: »

Sky and journalists seem hell bent no deal will be taken off the table , what is the consensus here it seems the opposite.

It will be taken off. The Parliament is remain.

The best hope is a general election as the EU has insulted and threatened its way to ensure that an election would see a much harder parliament against it.

The current parliament know full well most will lose their seats in leave areas especially the independent group North of Watford but are refusing byelections or democracy to get this signed and over the line. And election is toast for remainers.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

The EU can't cave on the backstop.

If the EU caves, then it might as well start dismantling itself.

The integrity of the EU is more important than letting the UK leave with a deal.

So the UK has ironically left the EU with no more options. The UK produced a list of demands so specific and so ignorant of geopolitics, that it left no wiggle room in the final deal.

The UK needs to understand that the EU will not sacrifice itself to save the UK. That is why the deal is the only deal.

This is what gets brushed aside time and time again. I read, possibly in the Economist a quote by a senior official in either Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania that they're backing Ireland so strongly as they know the EU's solidarity is its strength and that said strength might be needed to deter any potential threat they might face from Russia.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Jacob Rees-Mogg refuses to answer allegation that he has made £7 million since Brexit vote

If that is true it really puts a much more sinister slant on Rees-Mogg. I know that his investment firm have already pulled out of the UK, but him making millions of £ from Brexit feels criminal.

Professor Moriarty

jmayo wrote: »

But what about the Tories that want remain ?

How have things worked out for them to date?

Junkyard Tom

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Seems I am allowed to be abused. Yes I am a libertarian and strong believer in free markets. You are right my interest in Crypto come from my libertarian beliefs.

And that's all they are, beliefs, there is no such thing as a 'free market'. I mean, you're not supposed to take that stuff seriously.

Mr.Nice Guy

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Eh, there's definitely a chance of the EU rejecting it or insisting on accompanying terms that the UK can't stomach. Ireland is but one voice of 27:

https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/under-which-conditions-would-the-eu27-agree-to-an-article-50-extension/

The EU have strongy pushed the message of solidarity with Ireland ever since the referendum result.

Unthinkable that they would overrule Ireland on an extension at this stage. Little incentive to do so either from the EU side.

Infini

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Maybe Victorian levels of growth. Slash regulation and taxes...slash slash slash. The sole reason the EU won't budge on the backstop is to trap the UK in the CU as they know the UK will make mincemeat of them in a competitive market out there.

No they wont: Why? ♪"Hello Tarrif's My old friend, I've come to price you out of the market again!"♪, EU is the trend setter in terms of regulations and Britain is part of the European Continent not Asia or America. No Deal means disaster for them economically and politically. They crash out there wont be a UK in 10 years time but likely a rump state of Wales/England, Republic of Scotland and a United Ireland this is the biggest risk of a no deal: A political void of conflicting interests ultimately causing the country to fall apart and fade away.

ancapailldorcha

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh some of those MPs left due to other things like Corbyn's unwillingness to deal with antisemitism.

Can't disagree.

The head of the Liverpool Wavertree Labour party, Alex Scott-Samuel has appeared on TV with David Icke. It's not a stretch to believe Ms. Berger's allegations of anti-Semitism in that branch of the party at least.

Donald Trump

dresden8 wrote: »

Parliament not agreeing a deal and not allowing no deal gives May a mandate to revoke.

And then resigning giving everybody two fingers.

She has said this deal or no Brexit already.

You are being logical. Don't expect the UK to be logical.


Some people will vote for a "no deal" because for them "no deal" = "no brexit".


Others will be from the Raab et. al. school of delusions who will vote for "no deal" to be taken off the table because they "know" the EU will blink at the last minute and that the UK will be able to get a great deal at 5 minutes to midnight (ok, 11pm) on the last day.




So if they vote to take "no deal"off the table, there will be different stances on "what 17m people voted for".

Faisal Islam

Faisal Islam wrote:

(@faisalislam)
NEW When PM loses my understanding is that Government has received advice not to push A50 extension to a vote - out of concern it will be amended to something unnegotiable with EU27 (who must approve it unanimously)

March 12, 2019

Have they not said they're voting on
A: May's Deal
B: Blocking No Deal
C: A50 extension vote

Surely to not have that last vote would be... (illegal is too strong a word, but surely refusing that vote would be very wrong?)

Frank Bullitt

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I see the anti-Democratic and anti-competition the EU club has become. I am seriously concerned about its protectionist nature and its drive for centralisation. They have made no secret of their plans for a federal Europe and a single army. Merkel yesterday even suggested an EU aircraft carrier. I find this profoundly alarming and hope great nations like the US and the UK will put a stop to this expansionary ideas. I see Brexit as a significant step towards the ultimate break up of the EU to a free trade club is 28 nations with standards. That's it, that all it should ever be.

Not really sure what any of that means to be honest. Europe doesn't want a single army, it has NATO. You don't like the protectionist nature but then cite the USA as some sort of example to be admirable of, despite the very protectionist nature of that country.

Anti-Democratic? There are E.U elections in a few months.

Try harder.

Kermit.de.frog

That's it according to the EU

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1105553733684023310

dresden8

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg refuses to answer allegation that he has made £7 million since Brexit vote

If that is true it really puts a much more sinister slant on Rees-Mogg. I know that his investment firm have already pulled out of the UK, but him making millions of £ from Brexit feels criminal.

Every time these rich politicians make a statement the markets move and somebody makes money. I am not convinced of their altruistic motives.

cryptocurrency

jmayo wrote: »

I am anti federalist EU and I know that is frowned upon by a lot around here, but what the Brits think they can do and get is laughable ?

Why are you dismissive of a nation on the in security council, a blue water navy, intelligence agencies that lead the world, the city, one of the , most powerful soft power nations? Why shouldn't the UK look at itself and think they shoUld not be ruled by the EU.

dresden8

Conservative guy on Sky, we can squeeze a deal out of the EU. Just named as Johnny Maher.