Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

cryptocurrency

CelticRambler wrote: »

Because (a) they're not ruled by the EU; and (b) all the advantages they had in respect of the other things on your list they've squandered by demonstrating in public that they're not in any fit state to share space on the planet with any other nation.

Their "soft power" is shot to bits as a result of Brexit. They've cut themselves out of the international intelligence community; they've even deliberately cut themselves off from military-grade global positioning satelite imagery, thanks to rules they drafted themselves, so their "blue water navy" will have to rely on third party concessions to know where it is and where it's going.

They are in the only one that matters, the five eyes.

Nody

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So the latest "deal" struck with the EU has been rejected, It was clear that the EU didn't really give Theresa May anything worth going back to parliament that could secure a successful outcome.
Tomorrow the vote is simply "(prey to get a better) Deal" or "no deal", if they can't get a sense of any movement from the EU, a no deal looks the most likely option!

So far the EU is not shifting at all, this leaves Ireland in a difficult position as the EU member most exposed to the fallout of a "no deal" outcome.
One possible outcome is that the republic of Ireland is "quarantined" so as to avoid a hard border with the UK (NI & GB) while having to carry out some customs checks for trade via the mainland EU ports.

Tomorrow they will vote against a no deal simply because there is no majority for a no deal brexit which leads to the charade of voting for an extension without any agreed plan on what to use it for. This will in turn hand all power of brexit to EU so the UK parliament don't have to actually take a decision on what they want. In a word: Pathetic but in line with their behaviour for the last two years and let them continue blame EU for everything.

Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

You're cool with JRM manipulating this to make himself 7 million or thereabouts?

JRM invests a lot of money for both himself and others in "emerging markets". i.e. China/India/Brazil or wherever.


Then proceeds to break the UK out of Europe so that it can do free trade deals with China/India/Brazil or wherever.


People who live in UK = worse off.
People who invest in JRM = better off


:pac:

Kermit.de.frog

Speculation Theresa May may be paid a visit tonight at Downing Street...

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1105553095025672195

Hurrache

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never seen any of them threats. I seen the UK being much more reasonable to Ireland since brexit then the other way around.
Why can't the backstop be time-limited, even five years? If they can't work out arrangements in two years transition and five years backstop then they are seriously not trying. To refuse they just showed the whole plan was clearly a trap.

You've been posting around here long enough. Now assuming you've been reading replies and posts put to you, you know the answer to all this.

And stop trying to wind up people with the trap nonsense. Try be realistic for once on this thread or it'll quickly go to **** again just like you drove it last time.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

No, it's not a possible outcome at all.

They said that about the original Brexit referendum, If the Border communities refuse to allow a physical border to be installed and the UK refuses to put one in the Irish sea, there's only one other place it can go.

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

You're cool with JRM manipulating this to make himself 7 million or thereabouts?

I wish anyone who does 7 million legally the best of luck and so should you.

BlitzKrieg

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If they were one of its rulers they would be anle to come right out and say the UK will insist on no tax harmonisation, no EU army and no federal Europe, and no euro, they would say it in front of barrier, tusk and juncker and make them respond to the British people for the record.

They did

Thats why the EU treaties are full of excemptions for the UK on all of those issues.

Same with Ireland

We have the single strongest block for an EU wide army. A triple lock system that legally requires a referendum in Ireland before an EU wide army can be formed.

Also the likes of Tusk should be made to go on the likes of a question time panel to engage at local level as often as Vince cable. He is no more important.

They would if the offer was there I'd imagine. EU officials have shown up on debates and shows like question time on continental Europe, they've held televised debates for the European commission presidency during the run up of the last EU election (and this one too I expect), but none of that reached UK media because the UK media chose to have Nigel Farage etc on instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j5SOqtZGD0

Irish Praetorian

An Claidheamh wrote: »

The last time Britain had a premier navy, they were fighting Napolean

To be fair the RN was pretty first rate up until after WW2 - one of the reasons for its rapid decline was the fact that during WW2 it had become so large it was unsustainable.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

I am confused...

Help!

If the HOC says tomorrow, "No deal cannot happen", surely that means either revoking A50, or applying or an extension, presumably on the basis of a referendum/GE.
They can no longer vote for the deal itself, so they won't be able to leave on March 29th if shelving the no deal vote wins?

This No Deal vote is ridiculous.

If they vote NO to Taking No Deal off the table...it is STILL No Deal.

Crazy.

jmayo

seamus wrote: »

If they do ask for an extension, the EU might request a legally binding guarantee that the UK will do whatever it is planning. We already know they can't be trusted to follow through on their commitments.

So, for example, if May goes to the EU requesting an extension for a General Election, the EU might only approve on the condition that an Election is held before the end of April. If not, the extension is void and the UK crashes out.

There is a couple of flies in that plan.

Would it be possible to have General election in less than 6 weeks and even if they did how soon could a parliament sit to agree a new government and vote on withdrawal agreement.
If they had hung parliament who negotiates with EU ?
May as acting leader ?

And on top of that the EU parliament elections are on 23rd to 26 May.

An Claidheamh

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never seen any of them threats.

Then you really don't know what your talking about.

How much is your pound worth now by the way, without the EU to help it?

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I am confused...

Help!

If the HOC says tomorrow, "No deal cannot happen", surely that means either revoking A50, or applying or an extension, presumably on the basis of a referendum/GE.
They can no longer vote for the deal itself, so they won't be able to leave on March 29th if shelving the no deal vote wins?

No deal is the default if they do nothing else. The vote tomorrow is meaningless unless it's for a no deal. And that's highly unlikely. But it can't actually stop no deal and never could.

Infini

Deleted User wrote: »

I am confused...

Help!

If the HOC says tomorrow, "No deal cannot happen", surely that means either revoking A50, or applying or an extension, presumably on the basis of a referendum/GE.
They can no longer vote for the deal itself, so they won't be able to leave on March 29th if shelving the no deal vote wins?

I would look at it this way.

No Deal Gets rejected tomorrow,
Extention proposal gets passed Thursday.

This then goes 2 ways:

EU agrees a limited extention IF Britain gives a reasonable plan on what it does. We're stuck in this twilight for god knows how long.

OR

EU bite's the bullet and calls time on their ignorance and basically say's NO extention due to lack of any meaningful plan on the British side.

Should the EU decide the 2nd option and basically call Britain out by basically making them own up to their responsibilities and decide this would then go one of 2 ways.

UK basically crashes out in a vainglorious blaze of ignorance and stupidy BY CHOICE resulting in an utter mess of their own making and all the consequences of that decision.

OR

Teresa May decides not to be the PM who sinks the country or goes down with the ship by basically offering parliament the decision to withdraw A50 pending a 2nd referendum due to simply running out of time, having no plans left and basically using the only OUT from all this they have left. It would have to a 2nd referendum at least because if they withdraw disingeneously they risk a legal challenge by the EU and could be kicked out on short notice automatically if they try this just to restart negotiations.

Hurrache

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They said that about the original Brexit referendum, If the Border communities refuse to allow a physical border to be installed and the UK refuses to put one in the Irish sea, there's only one other place it can go.

They're not comparable, and Ireland won't be put outside the union.

PokeHerKing

Deleted User wrote:

They said that about the original Brexit referendum, If the Border communities refuse to allow a physical border to be installed and the UK refuses to put one in the Irish sea, there's only one other place it can go.

How exactly would "communities" block a physical border ie custom checkpoints going up?

dresden8

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

James O'Brien on LBC tomorrow could be very interesting. He generally is anyway. He is not afraid to call the muppets out.

James is worse than Joe Duffy.

Morons are let on so he can tear them apart.

His shtick is tired disbelief.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This No Deal vote is ridiculous.

If they vote NO to Taking No Deal off the table...it is STILL No Deal.

Crazy.

Exactly, unless they vote to accept a "no Deal", there isn't a deal, but a "no deal" is a deal, to leave without a deal.

Seth Brundle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I am confused...

Help!

If the HOC says tomorrow, "No deal cannot happen", surely that means either revoking A50, or applying or an extension, presumably on the basis of a referendum/GE.
They can no longer vote for the deal itself, so they won't be able to leave on March 29th if shelving the no deal vote wins?

Butif they fail to agree on whether to leave or revoke Art 50 then the current path continues to head towards a no deal...

https://ichef-bbci-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/695/cpsprodpb/4CCB/production/_105995691_brexit_flowchart_what_now_11mar_long_v1_640-nc.png

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I wish anyone who does 7 million legally the best of luck and so should you.

Morals and ethics be damned!


You sound like a person that knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.

gooch2k9

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Speculation Theresa May may be paid a visit tonight at Downing Street...

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1105553095025672195

Not one of them would have the courage to take her place.

PokeHerKing

PokeHerKing wrote: »

How exactly would "communities" block a physical border ie custom checkpoints going up?

Recent history should give you some pretty good hints.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

How long before they return to the glory times of the Three-Day Week? Or the excitement that was the Winter of Discontent? Fun times.

Infini

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

To be fair the RN was pretty first rate up until after WW2 - one of the reasons for its rapid decline was the fact that during WW2 it had become so large it was unsustainable.

To be fair World War 2 was what ultimately broke the UK as a global power, they had to sell tech and stuff to the US and they were forced off the Gold Standard after the war by them as well. The US basically supplanted the UK as a global power after WW2 because ultimately while Britain wasn't invaded only attacked it ultimately bankrupted them and WW2 was ultimately a phyrric victory for Great Britain.

dresden8

Infini wrote: »

To be fair World War 2 was what ultimately broke the UK as a global power, they had to sell tech and stuff to the US and they were forced off the Gold Standard after the war by them as well. The US basically supplanted the UK as a global power after WW2 because ultimately while Britain wasn't invaded only attacked it ultimately bankrupted them and WW2 was ultimately a phyrric victory for Great Britain.

I read somewhere many years ago that on VJ day 800 British warships of all sizes were decommissioned. 100 years of empire and huge debt sold off for pennies on the pound.

PokeHerKing

Deleted User wrote:

Recent history should give you some pretty good hints.

Apples and oranges.

Professor Moriarty

jmayo wrote: »

Well I often wonder why the remainers like Jo Johnson, stick it out and haven't jumped ship. Maybe it is once a tory always a tory ?

Not when it comes down to jingoism versus reality though. Ultimately, and perhaps unbelievably, there are Tories who will put country before party. Soubry springs to mind.

Irish Praetorian

Infini wrote: »

To be fair World War 2 was what ultimately broke the UK as a global power, they had to sell tech and stuff to the US and they were forced off the Gold Standard after the war by them as well. The US basically supplanted the UK as a global power after WW2 because ultimately while Britain wasn't invaded only attacked it ultimately bankrupted them and WW2 was ultimately a phyrric victory for Great Britain.

I'd buy that, with the rider that I'm not sure how sustainable it was for any nation to keep 1/4 of the worlds territory and population under its jurisdiction indefinitely.

EDIT: Anyways back to the Brexity grind

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

How long before they return to the glory times of the Three-Day Week? Or the excitement that was the Winter of Discontent? Fun times.

Very unlikely due to the fact that these were triggered by internal discontent and terrible labour relations resulting in mass strikes and seeding the rise of Thatcher. The current situation could result in a dose of inflation but an increase in local industry, similar to what happened in South Africa during the Apartheid trade embargoes.


Regardless of anything else, it does act as a push back against glolabisation.

Laois_Man

prawnsambo wrote: »

No deal is the default if they do nothing else. The vote tomorrow is meaningless unless it's for a no deal. And that's highly unlikely. But it can't actually stop no deal and never could.

Tomorrow's deal is not meaningless...well, depending on the result.

If they vote to allow no deal, that's it...end of the game
Otherwise, there's still things in play


The former would be a monumentally historic

The latter is far more likely though