Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

joe40 wrote: »

Or they just vote a third time and accepts May's.
A lot of the no vote are people trying to stop/ delay brexit. So if there is no extension I think they would take Mays deal rather than crash out. Apart from Erg and DUP would anyone serioussly allow no deal to happen.

The remainers always have the option of unilaterally withdrawing A50 at the last minute

It depends on the margin in tomorrows vote. If it's an overwhelming defeat for the No Deal option, then, if on the 29th of March there still isn't any extension on the table, then someone will just table a motion to withdraw Article 50 and if this is the last chance saloon, there will likely be a majority support for it

The margin for tomorrow will tell us how many nutters there are in the HOC who are prepared to scuttle the ship rather than remain in the EU (in any capacity)

I imagine many EU PM's will be feling the same way.
https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1105562597347282945

jmayo

Infini wrote: »

To be fair World War 2 was what ultimately broke the UK as a global power, they had to sell tech and stuff to the US and they were forced off the Gold Standard after the war by them as well. The US basically supplanted the UK as a global power after WW2 because ultimately while Britain wasn't invaded only attacked it ultimately bankrupted them and WW2 was ultimately a phyrric victory for Great Britain.

Lend-lease finished them.

Oh and don't forget how the moronic Labour government (Nene blunder) gave Stalin jet technology in late 40s, on his promise he would not use it for military purposes.
FFS what a bunch of muppets.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Infini wrote: »

To be fair World War 2 was what ultimately broke the UK as a global power, they had to sell tech and stuff to the US and they were forced off the Gold Standard after the war by them as well. The US basically supplanted the UK as a global power after WW2 because ultimately while Britain wasn't invaded only attacked it ultimately bankrupted them and WW2 was ultimately a phyrric victory for Great Britain.

Absolutely.

Between 1945 and 1965, the number of people under British rule outside the UK itself fell from 700 million to five million, three million of whom were in Hong Kong.

They really did lose all of their cash cows following WW2.

kalych

cryptocurrency wrote: »

While interesting I listen to laugh at him moan in his monologues. Hard brexit will be worth it just to annoy the extreme left like him alone for so many people.
Mogg made mincemeat of him if you check the interview recently on YouTube..i was shouting ”finish him” with five mins to go.

you posts have no relation to reality. blocked.

PokeHerKing

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Apples and oranges.

Maybe so as for the causes of the troubles, but the anger of border communities will be against any physical infrastructure and those who operate it.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

I would look at it this way.

No Deal Gets rejected tomorrow,
Extention proposal gets passed Thursday.

This then goes 2 ways:

EU agrees a limited extention IF Britain gives a reasonable plan on what it does. We're stuck in this twilight for god knows how long.

OR

EU bite's the bullet and calls time on their ignorance and basically say's NO extention due to lack of any meaningful plan on the British side.

<snip>

OR

Teresa May decides not to be the PM who sinks the country or goes down with the ship by basically offering parliament the decision to withdraw A50 pending a 2nd referendum due to simply running out of time, having no plans left and basically using the only OUT from all this they have left.

OR the third way: TM agrees to the Kyle-Wilson proposal - vote (next week) for the current WA conditional on a promise to put it to a people's vote. That justifies the EU granting an extension (T&Cs apply); the peoples vote is kicked out to 2020 and no-deal is avoided for at least a year.

gimli2112

BBC interviewing a business man in Sunderland. He's totally prepared for either outcome, just wants it over. Asked what his contingency plans were I think he said he's going to start manufacturing in Taiwan and licensing his IP in the US. There'll be winners in a no deal but thousands of miles away and the already rich.

seamus

Laois_Man wrote: »

Tomorrow's deal is not meaningless...well, depending on the result.

If they vote to allow no deal, that's it...end of the game
Otherwise, there's still things in play


The former would be a monumentally historic

The latter is far more likely though

If they vote against No Deal though, that's little more than a statement of intent.

The legislation to repeal Brexit would still have to be officially debated and approved by the HoC, and I can guarantee at that debate you'd still have the same old faces claiming that they can go back and get another deal and that cancelling Brexit cannot be allowed to happen.

It is possible, nay standard, for politicians to occupy two opposing positions at once. They will vote against No Deal while also fighting to ensure that Brexit isn't cancelled.

CelticRambler wrote: »

OR the third way: TM agrees to the Kyle-Wilson proposal - vote (next week) for the current WA conditional on a promise to put it to a people's vote. That justifies the EU granting an extension (T&Cs apply); the peoples vote is kicked out to 2020 and no-deal is avoided for at least a year.

The EU will not grant an extension beyond May 23rd. It really can't.

gooch2k9

Sky just had one amendment from Baker, JRM, Morgan, IDS, Dodds and more for an extension until 22nd May. Weren't sure if it was for tomorrow or Thursday. Trying to head off a long extension early.

Trying to run the Malthouse idea again supposedly.

milhous

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

theguzman

Hard Brexit is looking very likely as it is the defacto outcome of all of this. Let the EU see that National Sovereignty cannot be undermined as they are doing across the continent.

An Ciarraioch

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

Beechwoodspark

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Sky just had one amendment from Baker, JRM, Morgan, IDS, Dodds and more for an extension until 22nd May. Weren't sure if it was for tomorrow or Thursday. Trying to head off a long extension early.

Trying to run the Malthouse idea again supposedly.

Aka the madhouse proposals

An Ciarraioch

theguzman wrote: »

Hard Brexit is looking very likely as it is the defacto outcome of all of this. Let the EU see that National Sovereignty cannot be undermined as they are doing across the continent.

And what credible hard right groupings are there here, exactly?

gimli2112

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC interviewing a business man in Sunderland. He's totally prepared for either outcome, just wants it over. Asked what his contingency plans were I think he said he's going to start manufacturing in Taiwan and licensing his IP in the US. There'll be winners in a no deal but thousands of miles away and the already rich.

I would imagine that there are also businessmen who have national markets rather than international ones who will see the opportunities that import tariffs will provide him to grow his business with less external competition from cheaper imports.

Professor Moriarty

Belgian MEP on Sky looking and sounding very frustrated.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

Iain Duncan Smith signed his name wrong :pac:

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

Akrasia

milhous wrote: »

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

The vote on thursday will go like this 'Theresa May tables a motion for a short extension to the end of June to 'renegotiate her deal'. This passes and the EU tweet out 1 minute later that they will not accept such a short extension without a definite purpose and they will only accept a longer extension if it includes participation in the EU elections and a 2nd Referendum

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Belgian MEP on Sky looking and sounding very frustrated.

There's been a steady stream of them across Sky and BBC, each equally and as obviously annoyed and frustrated with the jokers in the HoC tonight.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

j8wk2feszrnpao

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

He actually said on SKY that he wants it on the table to use as part of a threat of No-Deal. He's clueless. EU don't see it as a threat, and probably moving ahead with plans for No-Deal.

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

They want to extend but not take part in EU parliamentary elections, thereby guaranteeing that they wont be allowed to extend again past July

Atlantic Dawn

The tariffs she will announce tomorrow will be interesting.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never seen any of them threats. I seen the UK being much more reasonable to Ireland since brexit then the other way around.

this level of ignorance certainly helps to explain your ability to

Either accede to partition or terrible and immediate war: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Irish_Treaty

"Irish should know their place" (from a favourite source of yours in sure too: www.rt.com/op-ed/446691-ireland-britain-brexit-border/amp/

Patel's proposal to use threats of starvation to force Ireland to give up the backstop:
https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2018/12/09/a-british-member-of-parliament-proposes-starving-ireland-as-a-negotiating-tactic/
However this is just a very small amount of the anti-Irish statements made.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why can't the backstop be time-limited, even five years? If they can't work out arrangements in two years transition and five years backstop then they are seriously not trying. To refuse they just showed the whole plan was clearly a trap.

The backstop can't be 5 years because there is no technological solution possible- the Brexiters lied to you (shock)- the only way to avoid a hard border is to have regulatory alignment - of which the Brexiters are perfectly aware - otherwise the current "new and improved" backstop now with "bad faith" opt out would be more than sufficient to satisfy them.
It is only a "trap" if the UK (again) wants to hold Northern Ireland and the Irish people hostage- against the will of the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland who wanted to remain in the EU and want the (NI only) backstop.

Now please answer my questions.

Spanish Eyes

dresden8 wrote: »

James is worse than Joe Duffy.

Morons are let on so he can tear them apart.

His shtick is tired disbelief.

To be absolutely fair, he is well able to suss out the idiots. That is his job. And he has proven it too.

Joe Duffy has no such intelligence IMV.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

Except anyone with a clue can see how it makes a UI far more likely

Headshot

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

well i'm shocked, shocked I say...........

What a horrible bunch to do this to to their own country which voted to say in the EU.

They are really nasty pieces of work

j8wk2feszrnpao

Akrasia wrote: »

The vote on thursday will go like this 'Theresa May tables a motion for a short extension to the end of June to 'renegotiate her deal'. This passes and the EU tweet out 1 minute later that they will not accept such a short extension without a definite purpose and they will only accept a longer extension if it includes participation in the EU elections and a 2nd Referendum

I don't think they'd state the final part, that's an internal decision for the UK.
But would fully expect a rejection of a short extension as part of a request for more negotiations on something that they have repeatedly said won't change.