Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

Seems to me that Brittania think they will rule the waves (sorry the EU) forever more.

Good luck with that.

Infini

milhous wrote: »

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

Honestly the UK needs to propose a solid and viable reason for an extension. Now the EU could simply agree not to suit the UK but to do any additional no deal preperations and throw em under the bus in May of course if they give em 2 months. On the other hand they could easily kick em out come 29th of March and literally hit them with all their Brexit means Brexit carry on etc simply because the UK hasnt given a justifiable reason to agree to an extention either.

The simple truth is that it might be better off just letting them crash out and then force em to decide if they want Brexit or Cancel it entirely for one reason: It would give far more certainty than anything the UK says at this point. If they withdraw A50 then at the very least there can be no Brexit without a 2nd referendum simply because any attempt to use it to dodge the 2 year timer to start this all over again would be likely defeated by a court of law and they get kicked out ignominously afterwards. It would also give legal clarity to the EU parlimentary elections as well as if they're gone theyre gone and if not then the parliment would not be on legally perilous grounds if the UK changes it mind at the last minute.

Kermit.de.frog

VinLieger wrote: »

Except anyone with a clue can see how it makes a UI far more likely

Does it?


I'm not sure how it does to be honest.

j8wk2feszrnpao

fash wrote: »

The backstop can't be 5 years because there is no technological solution possible- the Brexiters lied to you (shock)

But Moggy said it was really really easy to implement. He never said how it could be done, or what it'd even look like.....but Moggy wouldn't lie......

road_high

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

Spot on- anything that cements the border and brings NI as close to the UK as possible is their reason d’etre.

bilston

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

I don't think that's right. They are genuinely concerned about diluting Northern Ireland's position in the UK. I think they are fundamentally wrong, but I don't think they want a hard border. Apart from anything else a hard border will be very bad news for a lot of their voters.

lawred2

Headshot wrote: »

well i'm shocked, shocked I say...........

What a horrible bunch to do this to to their own country which voted to say in the EU.

They are really nasty pieces of work

They don't see Ireland as their country. They would love nothing more than the dissolution of the GFA and the hardest of hard borders with the Republic.

I hope they get routed in NI but I fear they could slide dogshoite through constituent's front doors and still hold their vote.

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Does it?


I'm not sure how it does to be honest.

Unionism needs moderate (soft) nationalists for to maintain the union. A hard border alienates that part of the population who identify with Ireland and Europe. It’s a very short sighted approach if that is DUP mindset never mind the anger within business community.

An Ciarraioch

Spelman-Dromey amendment more explicitly rules out no deal:

http://twitter.com/MaryCreaghMP/status/1105573029940260864

boggerman1

More idiots on lbc now with the usual waffle of lets go WTO and were Britain were great.they need to crash out now.no extension,no more clarification's or any other crap to drag out this torture

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

There's been a steady stream of them across Sky and BBC, each equally and as obviously annoyed and frustrated with the jokers in the HoC tonight.

It's one thing to be mad about it, what's needed is to show them exactly how mad everyone else is outside the UK and how tired they are of this pantomime: Refuse the UK's request for an extension and head for the end of this farce one and for all.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Does it?


I'm not sure how it does to be honest.

Because the demographics are already going that way and every poll shows a majority in favour of UI in the case of no deal.

Without brexit it could have taken more than 20 years, with no deal i would bet on a border poll in less than 10.

Beechwoodspark

I also think that the dup would love as much separation from ROI as possible and a hard border would achieve that. Unfortunately for them it would hasten the end of their little statelet.

I predict a lot of them will end up as almost refugees in some sink estate in Glasgow rather than the “indignity” of living in a United ireland.

Akrasia

Reminder that the EU floated a 21 month extension back in February. They have no issues with a longer extension if there is a change of course from the UK

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

road_high

bilston wrote: »

I don't think that's right. They are genuinely concerned about diluting Northern Ireland's position in the UK. I think they are fundamentally wrong, but I don't think they want a hard border. Apart from anything else a hard border will be very bad news for a lot of their voters.

This isn’t about sensible pragmatism or economy. This is about ideology and one upmanship. So long as NI is further distanced from the south it’s all they want

VinLieger

bilston wrote: »

Apart from anything else a hard border will be very bad news for a lot of their voters.

They care about nothing more than beating the "taigs" even if it means shooting themselves in the head at the same time

Beechwoodspark

The sooner the likes of Dodds and Wilson etc are relegated back to their appropriate level of back bench irrelevancy the better

PokeHerKing

Deleted User wrote:

Maybe so as for the causes of the troubles, but the anger of border communities will be against any physical infrastructure and those who operate it.

They'll be no different to sections of society angry at the current housing situation or the state of the HSE.

They certainly won't have a say in trade policy or national security and to think they will is up there with the dilusional type thinking of ERG/DUP.

diggerdigger

Akrasia wrote: »

Reminder that the EU floated a 21 month extension back in February. They have no issues with a longer extension if there is a change of course from the UK

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

Not what they are signaling now. May 23rd is the max extension.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

Reminder that the EU floated a 21 month extension back in February. They have no issues with a longer extension if there is a change of course from the UK

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

Can't see how the HoC can agree to anything in the next two weeks that would give the EU reason to offer a long extension. There is also genuine anger now in the EU and I imagine some influential people are beginning to think about leaving them to twist in the wind.

dresden8

Sky news guy must be reading my posts.

Havockk

Akrasia wrote: »

Reminder that the EU floated a 21 month extension back in February. They have no issues with a longer extension if there is a change of course from the UK

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal

Need a WA though. No chance witout.

Infini

Headshot wrote: »

well i'm shocked, shocked I say...........

What a horrible bunch to do this to to their own country which voted to say in the EU.

They are really nasty pieces of work

To be honest it's why I'd refer to them as the Dumbáss Unionist Party: That whole organization is proven more each day how utterly unfit for any sort of government that they are: They'll put their narrow minded tunnel vision of never, never, never before the good of their own province yet alone their own country. The BBC reported how they didn't even do research before the referendum how it would affect NI before deciding their decision, the cash for ash scandal, Sammy Shítstirrers "send em to the chippy" comment, the mysterious Brexit campaign funding, I mean how on earth do people up the North Still justify electing these fools to represent them when they're clearly incompetent and reek of corruption.

Not like the Ulster Unionist Party is exactly better but the stench of corruption from the DUP from all the information we see here is nauseating. They're literally pushing a policy that's going to backfire spetacularly on them if a Hard Brexit happens as NI will take the worst of it and when you take thing's away from people suddenly and all at once SF will literally be waiting to pounce on them with a UI which is not only a clear OUT from the Brexit fiasco but a way back into the EU with funding, oppertunities and JOBS to boot!

Water John

That Spellman-Dromey Motion, dropping the second part of the motion, was flagged as an obvious amendment by the Sky Political Correspondent.

Spanish Eyes

The "moderate voice" of Northern Unionists died when UUP died.

I often wonder why that was?

Probabably similar to SDLP and SF.

There is no Assembly up there and no hope of any agreement either between the sides. Terrible tribalism.

road_high

People in the North vote DUP as they are a genuine representation of what votes for them. It’s hard for us in the south to comprehend but they are still fighting several wars up there

dalyboy

Can anyone explain how in the hell sterling is trading at 86 pence at the moment. Where is this confidence in a dying on it’s feet economy. Am I missing something as I would have forecast a parity (at least) scenario at this point in the ticking clock exit

Spanish Eyes

dalyboy wrote: »

Can anyone explain how in the hell sterling is trading at 86 pence at the moment. Where is this confidence in a dying on it’s feet economy. Am I missing something as I would have forecast a parity (at least) scenario at this point in the ticking clock exit

Well it ain't over yet. Spot and forward.

CelticRambler

seamus wrote: »

The EU will not grant an extension beyond May 23rd. It really can't.

It really can! See Akrasia's post above.

TM says "we need more time, we're having another vote"
EU says "21-months or more, and you'll have to hold EP elections"
TM says "done"

TM says to HoC "I had no choice, the EU made me do it"
HoC says "rahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh"
Speaker says "oooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrdddddddddddddaaaaaahhhhhhhh"
Then everyone goes home and enjoys a few months of no Brexit.

Incidentally, I'm delighted with my prediction last night on how today's vote would go! Spot on - I'm going to invest all my money in crypto tonight. :pac:

road_high

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The "moderate voice" of Northern Unionists died when UUP died.

I often wonder why that was?

Probabably similar to SDLP and SF.

There is no Assembly up there and no hope of any agreement either between the sides. Terrible tribalism.

Northern Ireland is a disaster since its inception. Any imaginary “country” based purely on a sectarian headcount is doomed to failure. It’ll never work, never did and with the demographic changes we are seeing it’s tottering on the brink. The election two years ago told the story, SF were within a hairs breath of DUP now.
There’ll be a nationalist majority in Stormont very soon hence the DUP reticence and non interest in power sharing