Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

joe40 wrote: »

It is the 28th March. The EU have refused an extension.
May has refused to revoke A50, or call an election or a second referendum.
(I don't think a mechanism exists to force her hand in either of these, could be wrong there, one of the amendments seems to be looking at that)

She decides to put the current WA to the House one last time.

All other options have been exhausted what do you do. Support the WA or crash out the next day?

The Kyle-Wilson amendment solves that problem.

josip

Guy Verhofstadt gives some other good reasons not to grant an extension.

I don’t want a long extension. I say that very openly. An extension, where we go beyond the European elections, and the European elections will be hijacked by the Brexiters, and by the whole Brexit issues. We will talk only about that, and not about the real problems, and the real reforms we need in the European Union.

The only thing we will do, we will give a new mandate to Mr Farage. That’s exactly wants. Why he wants that? For two reasons. First of all, he can continue to have a salary that he can transfer to his offshore company. And the second thing is that he can continue to do his dirty work in the European Union, that is to try to destroy the European Union from within ...

Hurrache

German MEP's were saying the same thing last night.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Theresa May expected to vote against No Deal. What happened to No Deal is better than a Bad Deal?

She doesnt think the WA is a bad deal.

Hurrache

Just in case anyone over there missed his spoken interviews, Verhofstadt tweets it for emphasis.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1105784292553211907

Calltocall

Watching live sky news coverage of brexit with Adam Boulton and some fella in the background keeps interrupting and singing we’re not going to brexit, no we’re not going to brexit, we’re not going to brexit anymore, gas, make that man prime minister!

robindch

Roger_007 wrote: »

I've never heard any of the hard brexiteers explain why it is preferable to be a relatively small player in WTO than being a big player in the EU.

Because the brexiters* are only interested in removing EU co-operation and oversight from the UK which they want to turn into a low-tax, low-regulation environment for their own personal gain.

* Not 'brexiteers' which provides these crooks with a sheen of derring-do.

Mitch Connor

So... is the plan this?

1. reject No-Deal.
2. Extension gets rejected or accepted.
3. Vote either May-Deal (with some small change if there is an extension?) or revoke A50.

Result - feck knows.

Gerry T

All this talk of zero tariffs from EU to NI just clouds the issue. If NI is outside the SM, then IRL will have to put up a border to protect the EU's market, so I see no reason why the UK is taunting the WTO. All so they can say their not putting up a border. However their actions are causing the border.
This might be the time to open a NI business "Gerry T trading" and manage the shipment/sales of goods from NI to the rest of the UK !

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please stop using insults or I'll have to start issuing sanctions. Posts deleted.

VinLieger

Heres the idiot projecting his own personal ethics of acting in bad faith during negotiations onto the EU in any future trade deal, the only party who has acted in bad faith thus far is the tory government

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1105777683177172992

CelticRambler

First Up wrote: »

NI is not a separate jurisdiction. It is part of the UK and will be treated as such by WTO. Unless there are procedures between NI and Britain of course, which remains the most practical solution outside of the whole UK being in a CU

D'you know what? I think Theresa May has already started the process of shafting of the DUP. Revenge served cold.

As discussed above, this new 12-month no/low tariff regime is of very little importance in the grand scheme of things, except for one corner of the UK. While a steel manufacturer in India or a gagdet maker in China or a sweat-shop knicker-weaver in Bangladesh will be too far away or tied into existing arrangements to exploit the NI back door, there's one group of home-grown ... entrepreneurs :rolleyes: who will be agile and crafty enough to exploit it.

Now the UK says publicly they're not going to impose checks on the NI-RoI border, and they're not going to even try collecting import duties - but will check and charge duties on goods entering GB.

The Government insists that this will not create a border down the Irish Sea, as there will be no checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Instead, normal compliance and intelligence methods will be used to detect any traders attempting to abuse the system.

Well, the only way they're going to be able to apply "normal compliance and intelligence methods" will be to have checks on trade across the Irish Sea, meaning anyone wanting to manipulate the situation to their advantage only has to ensure that a sufficient number of abuses are discovered to require HMRC to carry out more and more checks, until an effective hard border is created between NI and GB.

If I was a member of the DUP, I would be very worried by this sudden change in the wind, as summarised by the Belfast Telegraph headline
Northern Ireland 'wild west of UK' - PM's no-deal Brexit plan treats region differently to Britain

ArmaniJeanss

nice_guy80 wrote: »

its called politics
Bertie knows the game

Cox couldn't really lie. Every AG is terrified of ending up in a 2 year Chilcott Inquiry situation a decade from now when they should be should be enjoying themselves.

Inquitus

CelticRambler wrote: »

D'you know what? I think Theresa May has already started the process of shafting of the DUP. Revenge served cold.

As discussed above, this new 12-month no/low tariff regime is of very little importance in the grand scheme of things, except for one corner of the UK. While a steel manufacturer in India or a gagdet maker in China or a sweat-shop knicker-weaver in Bangladesh will be too far away or tied into existing arrangements to exploit the NI back door, there's one group of ... entrepreneurs :rolleyes: who will be agile and crafty enough to exploit it.

Now the UK says publicly they're not going to impose checks on the NI-RoI border, and they're not going to even try collecting import duties - but will check and charge duties on goods entering GB.
Well, the only way they're going to be able to apply "normal compliance and intelligence methods" will be to have checks on trade across the Irish Sea, meaning anyone wanting to manipulate the situation to their advantage only has to ensure that a sufficient number of abuses are discovered to require the HMRC to carry out more and more checks, until an effective hard border is created between NI and GB.

If I was a member of the DUP, I would be very worried by this sudden change in the wind, as summarised by the Belfast Telegraph headline
Northern Ireland 'wild west of UK' - PM's no-deal Brexit plan treats region differently to Britain

As has already been noted the goods will still be dutied on import to the EU, so there is no change for the UK in that regard.

intellectual dosser

Northern Ireland poised to get the best of both worlds and become a hive of economic activity, will the DUP actually come out against the Tarriff proposals?

Duane Dibbley

Even Farage saying in the EU Parliament the EU should Veto the extension and move on. I agree with him for once

Hurrache

Calltocall wrote: »

Watching live sky news coverage of brexit with Adam Boulton and some fella in the background keeps interrupting and singing we’re not going to brexit, no we’re not going to brexit, we’re not going to brexit anymore, hilarious, make that man prime minister!

That lad has been around for months!

Infini

Hurrache wrote: »

Just in case anyone over there missed his spoken interviews, Verhofstadt tweets it for emphasis.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1105784292553211907

Pretty clear from that alone that an extention isnt happening unless theres a significant development in Westminster. Basically walk GB or Quit this nonsense already.

Leroy42

The Government insists that this will not create a border down the Irish Sea, as there will be no checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Instead, normal compliance and intelligence methods will be used to detect any traders attempting to abuse the system.

What compliance checks and what will they be checking?

There are no tariffs at the NI border, as such there are no tariffs payable. Under what jurisdiction would they stop goods coming from NI, with all the required tariffs (ie zero) already paid being imported into GB at the correct tariff rate (ie zero).

There is nothing they can do to stop it. And nothing the EU will do once the goods meet their tariffs regime. So, French wine for example gets a tariff of 10% (I didn't look it up as its an example). So instead of paying the tariff and customs checks at Dover they reroute through Dublin-NI-GB.

Can't see any issues in terms of tariffs of compliance in that scenario

CelticRambler

Inquitus wrote: »

As has already been noted the goods will still be dutied on import to the EU, so there is no change for the UK in that regard.

That's not the point. Anyone can import selected goods into NI at a rate different to that which would apply in GB. There only needs to be a significant volume of dubious transfers from NI to GB to trigger additional controls on that trade. There's one side of the political divide in NI who would see that as an easy way to get one over on their opponents. The monetary value of the exercise would be irrelevant.

joeysoap

Is it not the attorney generals job (any attorney general including our own) to examine the legal consequences of any proposal put in front of him/her and say what those consequences are. I can vaguely remember our AG saying that before the president signs a piece into law that he/she wasn’t happy with it and referring it to some other body. Cox might well have worded it differently but if that’s how he saw it..........

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

What compliance checks and what will they be checking?

There are no tariffs at the NI border, as such there are no tariffs payable. Under what jurisdiction would they stop goods coming from NI, with all the required tariffs (ie zero) already paid being imported into GB at the correct tariff rate (ie zero).

There is nothing they can do to stop it. And nothing the EU will do once the goods meet their tariffs regime. So, French wine for example gets a tariff of 10% (I didn't look it up as its an example). So instead of paying the tariff and customs checks at Dover they reroute through Dublin-NI-GB.

Can't see any issues in terms of tariffs of compliance in that scenario

Other than avoiding the queue at Dover though, any cost the importer is trying to save being imposed by avoiding the tariffs will be matched by the extra transport cost. Still end up with their product costing more on the shelf in the UK, just the Irish get to collect a bit more in fuel duty from filling up the lorries on their long round trip.

Hurrache

The EU throws its hat into the UKs plans for a no tariff regime in NI
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1105794665817747456

Penn

I really don't understand the No Deal vote tonight. No Deal happens by default if they can't agree something. Are they really wasting time and energy to vote on something that will happen anyway if they can't agree on what should happen next?

What's the point? All it's poised to do is humiliate them as there's a strong chance they'll vote to say they don't want to proceed with a No Deal scenario, and then by March 29th when they can't agree on an alternative, that's exactly what will happen anyway. Or, they apply for an extension which would have to be on the basis of a second referendum or a general election. Both of which could still end up with a No Deal scenario anyway.

This is ending up becoming an even greater clusterf*ck than I think most even thought it might.

rob316

No deal is the default option, it can't actually be taken off the table, can it? This vote is absolutely pointless again.

robinph

I can see a slight point behind having the vote against no-deal tonight as when it's agreed that no-deal isn't what anyone wants that makes the vote for asking for an extension more likely to pass. If they just went straight for the asking for an extension vote then that would almost certainly fail.

They still need to figure out why they are going to ask for an extension of course, but they might stick amendments in to clarify that tomorrow.

Leroy42

The vote tonight is meaningless, it was put there to try to influence the vote yesterday on the basis that voting down TM's deal would lead to No deal being taken off the table which would then lead to extension/delay to Brexit.

It, obviously, didn't work. But they have to go through the charade now that they created it.

joe40

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

re: HMRC not checking goods entering NI
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-businesses-have-been-hung-out-to-dry-industry-leaders-1.3824145

So let me get this straight,

brexiteers have claimed that the EU would throw Ireland under a bus, which did not happen, if anything EU repeteadly stood up for us

While here we have UK throwing NI under the bus

Madness.

In this this new arrangement is there any legal impediment to an Irish exporter sending their good to the UK market via NI
I would imagine there been massive logistical issues, but would it be unlawful.

Inquitus

joe40 wrote: »

Madness.

In this this arrangement is there any legal impediment to an Irish exporter sending their good to the UK market via NI
I would there been massive logistical issues, but would it be unlawful.

It would be lawful and allowed unless and until the UK puts up a border in the Irish Sea.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

re: HMRC not checking goods entering NI
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-businesses-have-been-hung-out-to-dry-industry-leaders-1.3824145

So let me get this straight,

brexiteers have claimed that the EU would throw Ireland under a bus, which did not happen, if anything EU repeteadly stood up for us

While here we have UK throwing NI under the bus

Given the tariff schedule, it's more like the UK throwing itself under the bus.