Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123

Send ERG and DUP to Brussels next time to negotiate.

These guys are so pathetic, sniping from the sidelines but never prepared to take to the field or get involved in negotiations. And if you ask them if May should step down or one of them wants to be leader they always say No. Hopeless bunch.

Laois_Man

I feel like the only one who sees tonight's vote as an important exercise. It is phenomenally historic if tonight's vote results in majority support for no deal. NO deal Exit will be so, as per T May's statement last night.

That being extremely unlikely, it is still worthwhile to have a formally recorded vote as to how many MPs want to avoid a "no deal" - as of now, it is untested formally and having the view confirmed does play a useful part in setting the path forward.

Amazingly, on Sky News, they still have Brexiteers going on about having to keep "no deal" on the table as it is needed for a stronger negotiating position. When will these pillocks get it thru their head....THERE ARE NO, AND WILL BE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS HAPPENING!!

ancapailldorcha

Penn wrote: »

I really don't understand the No Deal vote tonight. No Deal happens by default if they can't agree something. Are they really wasting time and energy to vote on something that will happen anyway if they can't agree on what should happen next?

What's the point? All it's poised to do is humiliate them as there's a strong chance they'll vote to say they don't want to proceed with a No Deal scenario, and then by March 29th when they can't agree on an alternative, that's exactly what will happen anyway. Or, they apply for an extension which would have to be on the basis of a second referendum or a general election. Both of which could still end up with a No Deal scenario anyway.

This is ending up becoming an even greater clusterf*ck than I think most even thought it might.

Surely a People's Vote is the only way forward if this passes. The EU will likely veto an extension as it would be a waste of time otherwise. They might accommodate a general election but at the moment it looks like the Tories would win again.

CelticRambler

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's a more comprehensive list here. Gives commodity codes and breaks it down by product.

Some issues trying to figure it out because you have things like this:


I'm assuming the 6.8 is a percentage, otherwise it doesn't make sense to separate it out.

Edit: And now there's a spreadsheet for your ease of use.

Is that a list of exceptions to the zero-tariffs? I.e., if it's not on the list, I can export tariff-free to the UK? Because if so, the Brits can continue to drink continental beers, wines and spirits (other than rum) at no extra charge.

But I thought the Brexiteers said that France (amongst others) would be demanding a great FTA to save their wine producers, and Spain would want one to save their tomato growers? And now the UK is going to give them unconditional free access to the UK market because ... they need us more than we need them???

How many feet does the UK have left to shoot?

joe40

Laois_Man wrote: »

I feel like the only one who sees tonight's vote as an important exercise. It is phenomenally historic if tonight's vote results in majority support for no deal. NO deal Exit will be so, as per T May's statement last night.

That being extremely unlikely, it is still worthwhile to have a formally recorded vote as to how many MPs want to avoid a "no deal" - as of now, it is untested formally and having the view confirmed does play a useful part in setting the path forward.

Amazingly, on Sky News, they still have Brexiteers going on about having to keep "no deal" on the table as it is needed for a stronger negotiating position. When will these pillocks get it thru their head....THERE ARE NO, AND WILL BE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS HAPPENING!!

I agree with this. An extension will be hard enough to get but passing this vote will help.
A large number of the people rejecting Mays deal are doing so in order to frustrate the Brexit process or achieve softer Brexit.
This vote will give a definitive number on the hard brexiteers and DUP clowns.

As for the last bit I heard Nigel Dodds at the same nonsense. They think this process is like buying a used car, don't let the salesman know you are keen.

Seth Brundle

CelticRambler wrote: »

D'you know what? I think Theresa May has already started the process of shafting of the DUP. Revenge served cold.

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Surely a People's Vote is the only way forward if this passes. The EU will likely veto an extension as it would be a waste of time otherwise. They might accommodate a general election but at the moment it looks like the Tories would win again.

Honestly I think the only workable solution is basically cancel A50 and revisit the subject after a 2nd referendum and if leave win again though remain winning ends this altogether. The cannot commit therefore they must quit (brexit). An extention isnt really an option at this point they need to decide once and for all and once they do they need to take a long bloody hard look in the mirror and sort themselves out. This shambles is a disaster of their own making and it shows them as a country of fools right now.

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

The British don't love NI. It's something most people would never think about pre-referendum. It has no impact on mainstream British politics and I'd say most people would be happy to see it leave the union, Brexiters for the Irish border issue and Remainers to be rid of the DUP.

ancapailldorcha

Infini wrote: »

Honestly I think the only workable solution is basically cancel A50 and revisit the subject after a 2nd referendum and if leave win again though remain winning ends this altogether. The cannot commit therefore they must quit (brexit). An extention isnt really an option at this point they need to decide once and for all and once they do they need to take a long bloody hard look in the mirror and sort themselves out. This shambles is a disaster of their own making and it shows them as a country of fools right now.

Playing Devil's Advocate here but if I were a Brexiter, I'd be a liberal Brexiter. I would advocate staying in the single market and customs union along with all that this entails for however long a transition period until a consensus can be reached on the Irish border issue, free movement, etc...

Doing this in two years has been shown to be impossible. A mature democracy would have plumped for the Norway option with as many opt-outs as possible at least for the interim term until the deal could be done. Alas.

There is going to be another People's Vote march in London on the 23rd. I hope it makes a difference. They seem to have organised a lot of coaches.

Seth Brundle

Is it paranoia or stupidity? I can't tell at this stage.

DUP's Sammy Wilson hits back at Civil Service head

“I don’t care if he’s head of civil service or Santa Claus”, Sammy Wilson has said in a scathing attack on the head of the NI Civil Service David Sterling.

During Westminster's Northern Ireland Affairs committee, Lady Sylvia Hermon quoted David Sterling who warned of grave, profound and long-lasting consequences of no-deal on Northern Ireland in a letter on Tuesday.

Inability to prepare, EU tariffs and significant changes to exports could cause business distress, failure or the relocation of some companies to the Republic, a report from Mr Sterling said.

Mr Wilson replied: "I have no doubt this was written for a political motive." When the letter arose in conversation again, Mr Wilson said the letter "was a scare tactic".

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2019-03-06/dups-sammy-wilson-hits-back-at-civil-service-head/

CelticRambler

joe40 wrote: »

In this this new arrangement is there any legal impediment to an Irish exporter sending their good to the UK market via NI
I would imagine there been massive logistical issues, but would it be unlawful.

Logistics can be overcome with a decent bit of software!

Produce raw materials in RoI as today, export tariff-free to a packaging plant in NI, seal container, send it to Dublin for transfer (unopened) to usual end-user in GB as today. Due to the enormous volume of movements, containers crossing the intra-Ireland border may not be all be physically checked but suggestions that the container never actually went to NI are outrageous ... :rolleyes:

Seth Brundle

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government pretend to have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

The British don't love NI. It's something most people would never think about pre-referendum. It has no impact on mainstream British politics and I'd say most people would be happy to see it leave the union, Brexiters for the Irish border issue and Remainers to be rid of the DUP.

Apologies - had meant to include "pretend to" (in above quote).

An Ciarraioch

So, presumably Irish farmers would sell their meat and cheese to cross-Border processors, they then gets finished and packaged in NI factories, and then enter the GB supply chains as "NI" products? Edit - see CelticRambler's post above!

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, presumably Irish farmers would sell their meat and cheese to cross-Border processors, they then gets finished and packaged in NI factories, and then enter the GB supply chains as "NI" products? Edit - see CelticRambler's post above!

Great minds! :pac:

Although they don't even need to be finished - much of Ireland's agri-output is primary ingredients for further processing; no reason why an NI wholesaler can't buy it and sell it on to a GB customer.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

T'was ever thus. But if she is trying to shaft the DUP, the people of NI do have the option of expressing their dissatisfaction in the next election, and choosing representatives who are better able to negotiate in the interests of their country.

CelticRambler

BTW there's a noticeable absence of headlines today reporting sterling's SURGE against the euro. Up 1p/ct since the PLUNGE yesterday, to bring it back into 18-month high territory.

Enzokk

This is an interesting tweet and how, even if the UK asks for an extension we may see it rejected. The problem with this is if May holds a vote on revoking article 50 instead.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105798053171208192

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105799662798323712

This is basically wondering if a deal has been made between LeaveEU and Lega Nord of Italy to not agree to an extension.

Inquitus

What time can we expect the No Deal vote? 7pm per yesterdays vote or earlier in the day?

j8wk2feszrnpao

Enzokk wrote: »

This is basically wondering if a deal has been made between LeaveEU and Lega Nord of Italy to not agree to an extension.

“Show me who your friends are, and I’ll tell you who you are”

strawdog

joe40 wrote: »

I agree with this. An extension will be hard enough to get but passing this vote will help.
A large number of the people rejecting Mays deal are doing so in order to frustrate the Brexit process or achieve softer Brexit.
This vote will give a definitive number on the hard brexiteers and DUP clowns.

As for the last bit I heard Nigel Dodds at the same nonsense. They think this process is like buying a used car, don't let the salesman know you are keen.

Yep I think tonight's vote is meaningless but still worthwhile having as it puts in the open more starkly the no deal nutters who have been camouflaged a bit by the various different groupings voting with them for divergent reasons. It might help clarify that the real choice is between the deal or revoking A50, otherwise minority of hard liners win, literally, by disastrous default.

Seth Brundle

If a former Irish PM can give his opinion on last night's events to the media then why not a former UK PM...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1105789004165857281

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Inquitus wrote: »

What time can we expect the No Deal vote? 7pm per yesterdays vote or earlier in the day?

Yes, that's correct as it stands.

Enzokk

And it seems that lobbying of Poland to block an extension has been happening as well.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105812667384635392

It would look better for Italy if other countries are also blocking the request for an extension. I still hope that if they do this if the UK requests an extension to hold new elections, whether a second referendum or GE, the UK will vote on rescinding article 50 to avoid no-deal and then their lobbying would have been for nothing.

MrMusician18

CelticRambler wrote: »

Is that a list of exceptions to the zero-tariffs? I.e., if it's not on the list, I can export tariff-free to the UK? Because if so, the Brits can continue to drink continental beers, wines and spirits (other than rum) at no extra charge.

But I thought the Brexiteers said that France (amongst others) would be demanding a great FTA to save their wine producers, and Spain would want one to save their tomato growers? And now the UK is going to give them unconditional free access to the UK market because ... they need us more than we need them???

How many feet does the UK have left to shoot?

The idea is that it will still be bad for EU suppliers to the UK as they will have to compete in the UK market with low cost goods from the rest of the world.

theguzman

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

MadYaker

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If a former Irish PM can give his opinion on last night's events to the media then why not a former UK PM...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1105789004165857281

Fcuk him! He deserves a very large chunk of the credit for this mess we are now in.

farmchoice

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

all 27 need to agree the extension but i would not put too much heed on all that stuff, in the past the brexitees have claimed that their allies in Europe would frustrate Brussels over various things but it has not happened once to date.

prawnsambo

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

Yes. It has to be unainmous. Section 3 of article 50:

unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

ancapailldorcha

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

The British have been historic allies of the Eastern States. They were instrumental in the accession of the Baltic states so I would say that those states would be much happier if the British stayed.

Hurrache

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

It's likely that a few countries won't agree to it anyway, a few have already come out the last week saying what would be required for them to agree to one, none of which will be met, and I think a couple were a flat out no regardless. Prominent German MEPs have said they don't want to give one.

Macy0161

Laois_Man wrote: »

When will these pillocks get it thru their head....THERE ARE NO, AND WILL BE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS HAPPENING!!

With May's red lines. Tonights vote is the next step towards the HoC taking control, which would ultimately most likely put a customs union (with likely close alignment to the Single Market) back on the table. Which would mean the EU would renegotiate. The EU has been consistent in no renogotiation with the UK red lines, not no renegotiation.