Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

LuckyLloyd

Mezcita wrote: »

I'd agree. Conscious of not dragging this off topic as this talk is better suited to the gambling forum. It does however represent a value bet in my opinion.

I am pretty heavily invested!

LuckyLloyd

LordBasil wrote: »

Everything about Brexit is so depressing. A never ending nightmare.

The 2010s started with Ireland being in complete political, economic and social disarray and now the UK is going through an even worse crisis. We are 7 weeks from catastrophe and no-one seems to know how to stop it.

Well, ultimately, it is up to the UK to figure that out - if indeed it can be stopped. We must never forget that.

fash

I would think Tusk's comments were partly aimed at having those against no deal ( including labour, remainers, soft brexiters etc.) that they need to let their illusions die and that there are only 2 real options left: no deal or WA. Nothing else exists - no extension, no real return as too many bridges have been burnt (whatever the ECJ says), and no other form of WA: the EU has moved as far as it will and diplomacy no longer works.

There is still the possibility that May wants to have her deal over the line - and will present it to the HOC as such. In which case this statement could be of help to her.
That is if May intends that.

Quin_Dub

seamus wrote: »

There's something of a bitter irony in the US's position. They've been making all sorts of kissy-faces at the UK, but once the UK has left the EU, the US will backtrack on whatever promises they made about trade deals and offer the UK a terrible deal that they have no choice but to accept.
Which, given the UK's own backtracking on promises and refusal to accept the best deal available, makes it all the more sad.


While I'm as guilty as anyone of using the markets as a political weathervane, we mustn't forget how badly wrong they get it, on a frequent basis. The markets didn't see Brexit coming in the first place, so their confidence about no-deal shouldn't be overestimated.

Absolutely.. Any trade deal with the US will have to include allowing all of food stuffs currently banned under EU to be sold in the UK.

Chlorinated Chicken , GMO Crops , carcinogenic food preservatives and colourings etc. etc.

And because it's cheap and nasty the local producers won't be able to compete on price and they'll have no other market to sell to as they won't be competitive in the EU under WTO rules so they'll kill their agriculture sector within a matter of a few years (or they'll end up having to increase taxes to pay for the subventions to keep the Agri sector alive...

Irishmale0399

LordBasil wrote: »

Everything about Brexit is so depressing. A never ending nightmare.

The 2010s started with Ireland being in complete political, economic and social disarray and now the UK is going through an even worse crisis. We are 7 weeks from catastrophe and no-one seems to know how to stop it.

Trust me at the very last minute TM will stop/delay it if the EU dont give her what she wants. Spin will be we tried and the EU prevented us leaving. We are doing this for the safety of our people or some sh1te like that.

LordBasil

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Well, ultimately, it is up to the UK to figure that out - if indeed it can be stopped. We must never forget that.

Yeah but the UK is lumbered with one of it's most useless PMs ever who is held hostage by the Tory Brextremists and the DUP.

For Forks Sake

Guess who's coming to visit on Friday?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1093168226303918080?s=19

Quin_Dub

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Trust me at the very last minute TM will stop/delay it if the EU dont give her what she wants. Spin will be we tried and the EU prevented us leaving. We are doing this for the safety of our people or some sh1te like that.

Of course it will all be blamed on the EU.

Just like almost every unpalatable decision made in the UK in the last 30+ years.

UK Politicians (and large parts of the Media) using the EU for decades as a patsy for their failings is what got people to vote for Brexit in the 1st place!

Hurrache

A nice coincidence as Fraser Nelson was discussed a short time ago, Have I got News for You has found that place in hell.
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1093137319916462080

Panrich

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Guess who's coming to visit on Friday?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1093168226303918080?s=19

And still with the attitude. This is from a Downing St spokeperson just now as reported in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/06/brexit-latest-news-developments-pmqs-theresa-may-faces-further-backlash-after-backstop-comments-in-belfast-speech-politics-live?page=with:block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4#block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4

Leo Varadkar said that they want the UK to leave with a deal, Donald Tusk said earlier today their priority is avoiding no deal.

The fact is that the deal that was on the table has been rejected by 230 votes.

So if, as they state, they wish for us to leave with a deal there are going to have to be changes made in order to address concerns which MPs have on the backstop.

Professor Moriarty

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Of course it will all be blamed on the EU.

Just like almost every unpalatable decision made in the UK in the last 30+ years.

UK Politicians (and large parts of the Media) using the EU for decades as a patsy for their failings is what got people to vote for Brexit in the 1st place!

Andrea Leadsom setting the tone at lunchtime today talking about the EU's intransigence leading to No Deal. Also wondering why the EU won't discuss matters rationally. Chuckle.

RobMc59

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Trust me at the very last minute TM will stop/delay it if the EU dont give her what she wants. Spin will be we tried and the EU prevented us leaving. We are doing this for the safety of our people or some sh1te like that.

She can announce it in swahili for all I care just as long as she is forced to stop brexit when reality bites!

Seth Brundle

Unelected brexiteer Arlene Foster is upset with Tusk's comment...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1093176910689886208


She should speak to John Bercow...
https://twitter.com/RagnarWeilandt/status/1093150042662334464

Irishmale0399

RobMc59 wrote: »

She can announce it in swaheli for all I care just as long as she is forced to stop brexit when reality bites!

At this point I personally wish the EU would put an end to it all and tell them the hard Brexit is on and no more talking or dealing. The EU accepts they voted against the WA and the only way is the hard way.......Good Bye UK with a bang.

lawred2

Panrich wrote: »

And still with the attitude. This is from a Downing St spokeperson just now as reported in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/06/brexit-latest-news-developments-pmqs-theresa-may-faces-further-backlash-after-backstop-comments-in-belfast-speech-politics-live?page=with:block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4#block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4

Leo Varadkar said that they want the UK to leave with a deal, Donald Tusk said earlier today their priority is avoiding no deal.

The fact is that the deal that was on the table has been rejected by 230 votes.

So if, as they state, they wish for us to leave with a deal there are going to have to be changes made in order to address concerns which MPs have on the backstop.

what are these concerns and have all these objecting MPs elucidated these concerns?

AtomicHorror

Hurrache wrote: »

What's great about what Tusk said is that while it was aimed only at those without a plan (although were there any other type) that promoted Brexit, it seems like every single person who was in favour of Brexit feels like the barb was pointed at them. Maybe because deep down they know too that they had no plan?

Or many, many wildly different albiet underdeveloped plans?

As with every vote on the matter since the referendum, the referendum was a vote on what they didn't want, not on what they did want.

The request thread for a Brexit forum: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057953333
You have to +1 or Thank it I believe.

Mods, this isn't spam. Different people are online at different times. That thread has good support so far.

briany

Theresa May's meeting Varadkar for dinner on Friday? Sounds like an awkward affair. If Leo flatly turns her down, do they continue to eat in silence or what?

VinLieger

Panrich wrote: »

And still with the attitude. This is from a Downing St spokeperson just now as reported in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/06/brexit-latest-news-developments-pmqs-theresa-may-faces-further-backlash-after-backstop-comments-in-belfast-speech-politics-live?page=with:block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4#block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4

Leo Varadkar said that they want the UK to leave with a deal, Donald Tusk said earlier today their priority is avoiding no deal.

The fact is that the deal that was on the table has been rejected by 230 votes.

So if, as they state, they wish for us to leave with a deal there are going to have to be changes made in order to address concerns which MPs have on the backstop.

Have they voted to agree on exactly what changes they want?

briany

Anyone watched the Inside Europe: Ten Years of Turmoil on BBC? Really lays out how this whole fiasco developed quite well.

FrancieBrady

Panrich wrote: »

And still with the attitude. This is from a Downing St spokeperson just now as reported in the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/06/brexit-latest-news-developments-pmqs-theresa-may-faces-further-backlash-after-backstop-comments-in-belfast-speech-politics-live?page=with:block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4#block-5c5b0f5ae4b04a6f567da1b4

Leo Varadkar said that they want the UK to leave with a deal, Donald Tusk said earlier today their priority is avoiding no deal.

The fact is that the deal that was on the table has been rejected by 230 votes.

So if, as they state, they wish for us to leave with a deal there are going to have to be changes made in order to address concerns which MPs have on the backstop.

The concessions have been made and STILL there have been no changes to the red lines.

Ball in the UK court.

Midlife

Getting interesting now.

Tories really in a bind.

Given three years of gvt control in the lead up to this, the blame will wholly be placed on them for whatever comes.

They'll try to shift the blame to Europe or whatever but it will come back to the party who spent all the time negotiating a deal that they voted down themselves. Less than two months and they still don't know what they want.

A hard brexit will bring a recession and the people will blame them. Tory party will face a massive massive voter backlash and wil take years and years to recover.

So what's to be done to avoid this.

I reckon the path to least resistance is to throw the DUP's under the bus and place a border in the Irish sea.

Enzokk

VinLieger wrote: »

Have they voted to agree on exactly what changes they want?

The state of all of this. All they want is the removal of the backstop. They are like the dog chasing a car, once they have caught the car it will not know what to do with it. If they managed to get the backstop removed, what, if any, further plans do they have? I am guessing it would be along the lines of single market access without any of the four freedoms, customs union membership while being able to negotiate their own trade deals as well.

briany

Midlife wrote: »

Given three years of gvt control in the lead up to this, the blame will wholly be placed on them for whatever comes.

They'll try to shift the blame to Europe or whatever but it will come back to the party who spent all the time negotiating a deal that they voted down themselves. Less than two months and they still don't know what they want.

I think everybody who's going to blame them is already doing so. What'll be hard will be unite the country in blaming them. Is there anything that can happen, be done or be said that will make Brexiteers turn on the Conservatives (plus Farage) en masse? I don't know.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

The state of all of this. All they want is the removal of the backstop. They are like the dog chasing a car, once they have caught the car it will not know what to do with it. If they managed to get the backstop removed, what, if any, further plans do they have? I am guessing it would be along the lines of single market access without any of the four freedoms, customs union membership while being able to negotiate their own trade deals as well.

EU agencies moved to London with the UK having access to them while not being bound by them or paying into them.

Quin_Dub

Midlife wrote: »

Getting interesting now.

Tories really in a bind.

Given three years of gvt control in the lead up to this, the blame will wholly be placed on them for whatever comes.

They'll try to shift the blame to Europe or whatever but it will come back to the party who spent all the time negotiating a deal that they voted down themselves. Less than two months and they still don't know what they want.

A hard brexit will bring a recession and the people will blame them. Tory party will face a massive massive voter backlash and wil take years and years to recover.

So what's to be done to avoid this.

I reckon the path to least resistance is to throw the DUP's under the bus and place a border in the Irish sea.

The problem with that is that whilst it's the logical solution to the issue , by losing the DUP's support that then means that Corbyn pulls his no confidence vote and wins thereby collapsing the Government.

And given that virtually everything that they have done in recent weeks and months has been about protecting the Tory party above all , they simply will not do that.

Without question , Theresa Mays decision to call that Snap Election will go down as the single greatest example of National self-sabotage in history.

Macy0161

Panrich wrote:

So if, as they state, they wish for us to leave with a deal there are going to have to be changes made in order to address concerns which MPs have on the backstop.

I must have missed the UK/ May moving on any of their red lines in order to get a deal?

It's still all take from the UK in terms of renegotiating the WA, whereas the EU has been clear they'll reopen if the red lines are also on the table.

briany

Macy0161 wrote: »

I must have missed the UK/ May moving on any of their red lines in order to get a deal?

It's still all take from the UK in terms of renegotiating the WA, whereas the EU has been clear they'll reopen if the red lines are also on the table.

Is there a red line that May can remove and get that deal through parliament?

MrMusician18

briany wrote: »

Is there a red line that May can remove and get that deal through parliament?

All of them, if she doesn't mind losing somewhere between 30 and 80MPs of her own, perhaps fatally wounding the Tory party forever more.

Brexit needed to be a cross party project from the outset tbh.

PeadarCo

briany wrote:

Is there a red line that May can remove and get that deal through parliament?

Is this not the issue. The red lines are in conflict with each other. This has been obvious from the day they were set out. It is incredible that internally there has not been a conflict about them. The fact we are even still talking about them indicates how far away from the reality of the compromises the UK will need to make to get a deal. Even Brexiters don't seem to understand their implications. The backstop is a consequence of the red lines and its existence/proposal should not have come as a surprise given the UKs red lines.