Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

alloywheel wrote: »

The UK does not want a hard border. They are right to try to give us every chance to talk, but if Leo continues to be stubborn, we have only ourselves to blame when the EU tells us to erect a hard border. Wait and see.



+1. The EU is going to screw Ireland, same as they done with the credit bubble / repaying the bondholders, wait and see.

Why would the EU need to tell us? We know the rules we signed up to, we know what we have to do to protect our market. The border will be up before the EU has to ask.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

And Singapore is squeaky clean?
How much does Singapore owe?

Singapore is squeaky clean.

Have you see their chewing gum laws :eek:
https://sso.agc.gov.sg/SL/272A-RG4

7. Any person who contravenes any of the provisions of these Regulations shall be guilty of an offence and shall be liable —
(a) on the first conviction to a fine not exceeding $100,000 or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 2 years or to both; and
(b) on the second or subsequent conviction, to a fine not exceeding $200,000 or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 3 years or to both.

Remember that whenever someone suggests Singapore on Thames.
It requires a population kept in check.

zapitastas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Singapore is squeaky clean.

Have you see their chewing gum laws :eek:
https://sso.agc.gov.sg/SL/272A-RG4

Remember that whenever someone suggests Singapore on Thames.
It requires a population kept in check.

I never understood the chewing gum thing while they have a problem with some Chinese tourists defecating in public. A case of skewed priorities . Definitely off topic

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

I thought the UUP were making a bit of ground, but not sure how they would fare overall. They lost one sane voice in Sylvia Hermon who I presume is safe. What about Alliance?

Sylvia is not safe thanks to the DUP and Tory Gerrymandering of constituencies recently.

A thing to remember is that nearly 60% of UK MP's are in safe seats.

They are selected rather than elected.
An inanimate carbon rod would probably do just as well

Remember that when someone in the UK complains about EU unelected.

prawnsambo

alloywheel wrote: »

If you look it up you will see it is the UK who has put the most in to the EEC / EU, after Germany. As I said, and I gave you the link, for the year, "on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out."

What part of "€10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out" do you not understand?

You gave me a link that didn't work. Which I said. Which you ignored. And it was to The Telegraph. Not the actual source of the data.. Which I gave you. So to answer your question. All of it. Is nonsense. And with that, I think I'll take the advice given by others.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

"Project Fear" is predicting that the UK will go into meltdown on the 30th March if there's a no-deal Brexit, and these roaming charges headlines are part of that. As far as the vast majority of the British population is concerned, the UK will not go into meltdown on ND+1. There will be "no change" - there will still be food on the shelves, the trains will still run, schools will be open, ambulances will turn up and take patients to hospital, and few (if any) mobile phone users will pay a penny more for using their phone.

For us on the outside, that is the real danger: Brexiteers bragging that it was all a load of scaremongering, Remainers thinking that things aren't as bad as they feared, and Don'tKnow/PreferNotToAnswers deciding that it all worked out in the end. So none of them will be putting pressure on their MPs to get back to the negotiating table in a hurry. That doesn't mean there aren't problems ahead, but turning a statement of already well-known fact into a screaming headline is not helpful.

In an earlier post, I predicted that it'll be the end of April before the "man in the street" wakes up to the first real inconveniences of Brexit reality; it'll still take time, though, for everyone to feel the pain.

In the case of a crashout Brexit, trade infastructure, especially around the UK's south coast ports is expected to collaps in the initial hours and given what we have heard, this seems like a very credible prediction. While concerns around civil disorder in the UK is hard to quanify and could easily go either way, without doubt there will be civil disorder in NI. I know people in NI who are activly planning to protest and a widespread campaign of civil disobedience.

Imreoir2

alloywheel wrote: »

And a lot of good France done us since that was written 100 years ago. How many jobs did she give us? How much does it trade with us? Did it appreciate tens of thousands of Irishmen (albeit in British uniforms) helping to rescue it from Nazism? Many paying the ultimate price. Did it contribute as much money in to the EU / EEC as our neighbouring island? No.

France sent several armies to aid Ireland at the time, Britian never once aided us in trying to achieve freedom. While Irishmen were saving France from Nazism in British uniform, it was the British who posed the greatest threat to our Independance during that war.

LuckyLloyd

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In the case of a crashout Brexit, trade infastructure, especially around the UK's south coast ports is expected to collaps in the initial hours and given what we have heard, this seems like a very credible prediction. While concerns around civil disorder in the UK is hard to quanify and could easily go either way, without doubt there will be civil disorder in NI. I know people in NI who are activly planning to protest and a widespread campaign of civil disobedience.

First heatwave of the summer; couple of months in; with goods shortages, a tanking Sterling and layoffs starting to hit home: riots and troops on the streets. People are going to realise they were sold an absolute pup and they’ll be outraged about it.

bilston

May has to decide now.

Party or country.

If the country matters more she will go for a soft Brexit. She might just get it through Parliament with Labour's support. Of course if it goes through and Brexit happens she will be out on her ear very quickly. But at least a deal will have been agreed that most people can accept.

If she chooses the party then a no deal Brexit is inevitable and then all bets are off as to what might happen.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

France sent several armies to aid Ireland at the time, Britian never once aided us in trying to achieve freedom. While Irishmen were saving France from Nazism in British uniform, it was the British who posed the greatest threat to our Independance during that war.

I have read accounts of German soldiers taunting Irish soldiers about what the army they were fighting for were doing back in Dublin and Ireland. There were a lot of AWOL as a result apparently. Another Brexit like absurdity.
It is great to see Ireland picking the EU as our future, our children and grandchildren will thank us for the next year if Varadkar and Co. are brave.

*and Robert Emmet's epitaph might finally get written!

Spanish Eyes

FPTP has to be the most undemocratic of election systems. Just had to say that, and I know it was kept even though an alternative system was put to the electorate. But hey ho.

No point in any new party or even established ones like LDs trying to get over the line anymore. Is there?

There will be a deal. It may not be what everyone wants but hey that's tough, and compromise is required.

Place your bets now.

Since NO DEAL is not what Parliament wants, they need to nail their colours to the mast and say exactly what they DO want. That is sorely lacking.

Anyway, all this toing and froing from London to Dublin, and Dublin to Brussels, and so on to my mind suggests that there is something afoot. What that is, is anyone's guess.

I sincerely hope NO DEAL is off the table now, and some serious talk about a compromise solution may result. If Labour's suggestions (albeit with some modifications for optics etc.) are taken on board, the ERG and the DUP are redundant. And May can get it over the line and head off to her hillwalking paradise at last.

Enzokk

alloywheel wrote: »

If you look it up you will see it is the UK who has put the most in to the EEC / EU, after Germany. As I said, and I gave you the link, for the year, "on a net basis, Britain was the second largest contributor to the EU budget last year. It put €10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out."

What part of "€10.8bn more into the EU pot last year than it took out" do you not understand?

You chose one year to prove, or try to prove a point. Have you looked at the 2008 EU budget contributions? If we isolate that year then the UK had a net contribution of 844m euro. France had a net contribution of 3.8b euro. So France contributes 4.5 times more to the EU budget than the UK.

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/figures/2007-2013/index_en.cfm

Laois_Man

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Anyway, all this toing and froing from London to Dublin, and Dublin to Brussels, and so on to my mind suggests that there is something afoot. What that is, is anyone's guess.

She was doing a similar tour of Europe in December pretending to seek clarifications about clarifications about clarifications

Noting was afoot then
Nothing is afoot now

Other than delaying tactics.

Imreoir2

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

First heatwave of the summer; couple of months in; with goods shortages, a tanking Sterling and layoffs starting to hit home: riots and troops on the streets. People are going to realise they were sold an absolute pup and they’ll be outraged about it.

Not to mention that April is the worst possible time for a crashout. The UK imports a lot of food, but in April it imports nearly all its food. UK grown foodstocks are mostly gone and the new yearly harvest is not ready to be brought to market. And then you cut yourself off from your seasonal agri labour to boot. You severly hamper your supply routs and cripple your domestic food production for good measure.

There will almost certainly be panic buying in the UK in late March if there is no deal, it only took a bit of snow to cause panic buying here this time last year. Shelves will be empty and the ports will be too blocked to allow sufficient supplies through to restock them.

alloywheel

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have read accounts of German soldiers taunting Irish soldiers about what the army they were fighting for were doing back in Dublin and Ireland. There were a lot of AWOL as a result apparently.

A lot of AWOL? Like 00.02% ?
There were an awful lot more people who derested from the Irish Army during the same era. Not surprising.

Mr.Nice Guy

Tonight's anti-SNP audience contributor on Question Time has been on before having a pop at them.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1093647741786509313

Pro-independence part of Scotland suddenly sounding like it's East Belfast. You'd think they'd at least try to make these audiences reflective of the location.

FrancieBrady

alloywheel wrote: »

A lot of AWOL? Like 00.02% ?
There were an awful lot more people who derested from the Irish Army during the same era. Not surprising.

Because they got conned into fighting for an army that was suppressing and killing their own back in Dublin and Ireland? Which was the point I was making.
I sincerely doubt it.

*will I stir myself and get the dictionary down or is 'derested' an actual thing?

Capt'n Midnight

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

First heatwave of the summer; couple of months in; with goods shortages, a tanking Sterling and layoffs starting to hit home: riots and troops on the streets. People are going to realise they were sold an absolute pup and they’ll be outraged about it.

Big fire in a cold storage warehouse in the UK a major supplier for Waitrose.

The entire site spans 18 acres

It's death by a thousand cuts. Anyone by itself is not a biggie, but when it's relentless it's not fun.

Roaming charges coming back is just a visible sign of things to come.


Are there any good news stories about Brexit for the UK ?
Brexit: Norbrook planning to stockpile for no-deal

One of Northern Ireland's largest export firms is planning to stockpile six months of product inside the EU to guard against a no-deal Brexit.

Pharmaceutical firm Norbrook employs more than 2,000 people.

...
in a worse case scenario, it may not be able to sell its products in the EU.

In addition to planning to stockpile, the firm has spent about £3m transferring product licenses to the EU.

alloywheel

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Tonight's anti-SNP audience contributor on Question Time has been on before having a pop at them.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1093647741786509313

Pro-independence part of Scotland suddenly sounding like it's East Belfast. You'd think they'd at least try to make these audiences reflective of the location.

Nothing compared to some of the people having a pop on the continent.
"France recalls Rome envoy over worst verbal onslaught 'since the war"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/07/france-italy-ambassador-macron-di-maio-salvini-second-world-war

Folkstonian

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Tonight's anti-SNP audience contributor on Question Time has been on before having a pop at them.

https://twitter.com/bencooper/status/1093647741786509313

Pro-independence part of Scotland suddenly sounding like it's East Belfast. You'd think they'd at least try to make these audiences reflective of the location.

Whatever about one guy, tonight’s audience as a whole were nowhere near as fanatical about a second independence vote and Scottish independence as you’d expect. Especially in a town like Motherwell. Are they as fatigued by endless referendum fallout as everyone else?

Anthracite

alloywheel wrote: »

But our GDP is skewed by multinationals laundering money / profits here that is earns elsewhere, like Apple. The Singapore economy is much more successful than Irelands, it does not owe 200 billion , nor has it received EEC / EU handouts like we have.

Meanwhile, the Singapore economy is largely based on 'mom and pop' cobblers and local artisan chimney sweeps.

Are you even trying?

Spanish Eyes

Laois_Man wrote: »

She was doing a similar tour of Europe in December pretending to seek clarifications about clarifications about clarifications

Noting was afoot then
Nothing is afoot now

Other than delaying tactics.

Yes I know, but it was not as close to the line as it is now though.

Tusk has certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons of not even a Sketch of a Plan. Anyone who objects to that statement is enforcing it really.

We sure do live in interesting times.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is just shoddy journalism. Kuenssburg just misses the real story again and again.


Somehow May is 'winning the perception war'. Really. Look at the head on her there.

She is pushing the line that something will happen at the 11th hour again. She completely ignores the many EU statements that the WA is not open for negotiation and prints this,

Because, while there hasn't been a breakthrough, the EU has agreed to more talks, which at least opens up the possibility of discussing the changes to the troubled backstop that has caused such political difficulty.

So either she is correct and we will be screwed by the EU and those that has been warning us for years that it will happen will be happy, or she is wrong and totally ignoring what the EU has said for the last few days.

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

Whatever about one guy, tonight’s audience as a whole were nowhere near as fanatical about a second independence vote and Scottish independence as you’d expect. Especially in a town like Motherwell. Are they as fatigued by endless referendum fallout as everyone else?

That's probably it alright. Fatigued.

FrancieBrady

Rather than trying to fix the debate for one side or another, the greatest crime of the BBC and Question Time is it's slavery to the PR that public UK opinion is mannered and polite.

It isn't really and leads to the constant bewilderment that some people will violently and vociferously react to events.
Opinion in the UK is much more polarised than they pretend.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Not to mention that April is the worst possible time for a crashout. The UK imports a lot of food, but in April it imports nearly all its food.

Take a wild f*cking guess when the UK tax year ends ?


Guess when a new VAT scheme for sub-contractors comes into effect that screws them over if they can't identify if they are billing the final customer or not ?



Average water bills to rise by 2% from April in England and Wales

Energy prices to increase for millions as Ofgem raises cap
The new cap could see these households typically pay an extra £117 a year.


There will be rises of up to 4.99% on the main portion of council tax bills next April - plus potentially £24 per home for police







Also this might tempt some to leave while they can.
From 6 April 2019 the scope of UK CGT on non-residents is being extended to include all UK real estate property as well as to assets deriving at least 75% of their value from UK land.


Also
Flybe has warned shareholders it will wind up the company if they do not back a sale to a consortium led by Virgin Atlantic and Stobart Air. Not Brexit related unless you include the currency impacts which were caused by triggering Article 50 without an exit strategy.

LuckyLloyd

They’ll be reinvigorated on the question of independence in Scotland pretty quickly when a Brexit Scotland didn’t vote for starts being responsible for goods shortages and layoffs.

Mr.Nice Guy

If there's fatigue it might be from the bus journey into Motherwell.

A bit more on the fellow who spoke earlier:

https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1093658950719934466

https://twitter.com/raymondtcbrown/status/1093662531405729792

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If there's fatigue it might be from the bus journey into Motherwell.

A bit more on the fellow who spoke earlier:

https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1093658950719934466

https://twitter.com/raymondtcbrown/status/1093662531405729792

The BBC’s fall from grace is symptomatic of the destruction of societal discourse in the UK. They’re in a really bad place. A disorderly exit may be a huge blessing in disguise in many ways. A reboot is required.

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ellenjoelle/status/1093335514105688064



This demonstrates how you are being far too confident about Eu support and solidarity.
The single roi flag flying is nothing to do with solidarity - or if it is then you want to panic because today it was replaced with two flags one of which was the UK flag. I assume it goes up when the particular pm is in town.
I worry for you guys and how much confidence you are putting in the Eu.

If so I'll admit I was wrong and move one. However unlike you this wasn't the core of my argument which I was wrong.