Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Folkstonian

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They’ll be reinvigorated on the question of independence in Scotland pretty quickly when a Brexit Scotland didn’t vote for starts being responsible for goods shortages and layoffs.

Absolutely. But voting to leave the U.K. will simply be a case of wading further into the swamp for the Scots. To return to frictionless trade and travel between itself and the European Union, it will be confronted with a hard border with England, with whom it does 75% of its trade.

It definitely puts them between a rock and a hard place, but honestly I don’t feel particularly sorry for them. I expect England is as tired of everything being its fault for the Scots as you as the EU are tired of everything being your fault according to the british

Imreoir2

Folkstonian wrote: »

Absolutely. But voting to leave the U.K. will simply be a case of wading further into the swamp for the Scots. To return to frictionless trade and travel between itself and the European Union, it will be confronted with a hard border with England, with whom it does 75% of its trade.

It definitely puts them between a rock and a hard place, but honestly I don’t feel particularly sorry for them. I expect England is as tired of everything being its fault for the Scots as you as the EU are tired of everything being your fault according to the british

That used to be us, independance and EU membership is the road away from that kind of unhealthy economic dependance.

robindch

zapitastas wrote: »

I never understood the chewing gum thing while they have a problem with some Chinese tourists defecating in public. A case of skewed priorities. Definitely off topic

Not all that off-topic.

Out of interest, a few years ago, I imported a few tabs of chewing gum from Jakarta into Singapore and chewed my way around town for a few days without trouble. To add insult to injury, and caught short on the way back from a pub, I had to relieve myself in a relatively public bush and was neither caught, nor caned within an inch of my fine Irish life.

This year, for added interest and galactic kudos, I hope to meet a member of the European Research Group (a loose, disputative grouplet of angry individuals who are anti-European and carry out no research) and will attempt the dangerous task of introducing a verifiable fact to their cloud of words and their sold drop of reason.

Folkstonian

Imreoir2 wrote: »

That used to be us, independance and EU membership is the road away from that kind of unhealthy economic dependance.

Possibly. Though you never had a land border with a market of 50 million so the circumstances are somewhat different.

I’m not trying to make a case for them to stay in the union, lots of good people in Scotland but the hostility towards England is extremely unhealthy and probably requires drastic change to release the pressure

Imreoir2

Folkstonian wrote: »

Possibly. Though you never had a land border with a market of 50 million so the circumstances are somewhat different.

I’m not trying to make a case for them to stay in the union, lots of good people in Scotland but the hostility towards England is extremely unhealthy and probably requires drastic change to release the pressure

Ahhh... we do have a land border with the UK, it's been in the news recently.

robindch

J Mysterio wrote: »

Kuenssburg just misses the real story again and again.

Kuenssburg misses the point so often and so consistently that a suspicious mind might think her less than fully honest.

Folkstonian

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Ahhh... we do have a land border with the UK, it's been in the news recently.

Really? I’ll do some googling around that one.

But in all seriousness, there isn’t a consumer market of 50 million just across that border. The context is quite different.

Folkstonian

Folkstonian wrote: »

Really? I’ll do some googling around that one.

But in all seriousness, there isn’t a consumer market of 50 million just across that border. The context is quite different.

Same would apply for NI then. GB is as much our market as it is theirs.

Spanish Eyes

Last word,

It is all a total and absolute fnk joke, but it will be sorted without a NO DEAL.

Does anyone agree?

Spanish Eyes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Last word,

It is all a total and absolute fnk joke, but it will be sorted without a NO DEAL.

Does anyone agree?

You cant really ask a question with, Last word," at the start.

What do you want, the last word or an answer? How very Brexit of you

4068ac1elhodqr

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Last word,

It is all a total and absolute fnk joke, but it will be sorted without a NO DEAL.

Does anyone agree?

You forgot the other options an 'extension' of some sort, or even a 'revoke', to allow more time, leading to another ref or space for a general election.

Anyway the bookies are offering a generous 325% ROI for 'no deal' and leave by due date, which adds to indications that it's still somewhat unlikely.

JC has also come out with proposals today for a 'permanent customs union with the EU', he realised it's time to play his hand/any hand. A hard exit won't win him/Labour many future votes in years to come.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

She is pushing the line that something will happen at the 11th hour again. She completely ignores the many EU statements that the WA is not open for negotiation and prints this,

So either she is correct and we will be screwed by the EU and those that has been warning us for years that it will happen will be happy, or she is wrong and totally ignoring what the EU has said for the last few days.

That people have the 'perception' that this is possible is difficult to comprehend. The EU will only now discuss the Political Declaration, if need be. That's it now, as evidenced by Tusk's exasperated outburst.

To renegotiate there would have to be a gamechanging moment and it's incumbent on May to deliver this: she would need to change her redlines. But May likes the red lines and renegotiation would require an extension. May really wants to deliver Brexit on the 29th March and few have the appetite to prolong this miserable affair.

And though May is loathe to change her position, she is doubly so now given how divisive Brexit is. There are just so many camps - both in Parliament and the country at large - and many are frustrated and angry. It's not even the cliche Brexiteers VS Remainers anymore, its extremes of both and all shades in between: Hard Brexiteers, Soft Brexiteers, Custom Union advocates, Single market-'ers', EFTA, WTO, Remainers, Swiss Model, blah, blah, blah. And just as it is not Brexiteers VS Remainers, neither is it really Tories VS Labour, both parties having virtually split into various groupings themselves. Very difficult to move in a new direction at this 11th hour and in so doing unify parliament and the country in the stinking mess she directed. So, extremely challenging at this point for May to suddenly change tack and neither will she.

But let's also not forget that the deal is actually really good in the context of May's redlines.

If there is anyhing that can be said for May - not long list - it is that she is impressively obdurate, has little shame and she is really good at time wasting. A masterful time waster. Despite everything thrown at her - lost votes, confidence votes, motions of contempt, amendments, etc. etc., she somehow just obstinately fast forwards through it and survives to suffer another day.

Well, only 50 days to go now, so May will try to get as much mileage out of these 'talks' as she can.

I think May has a strategy now and it's dangerous... Pretend to work away and battle for Britain as the clock counts down, but really just waste time (there will be another stunt or set piece to distract). Ol' Davis always said the deal would be struck in the 11th hour! And then.... Finally... With the UK on the precipice of anarchy and everyone suffering from shock, she will put it to Parliament: accept the deal or we crash out on the 29th. Not long to wait really.

Remember when she refused the precondition to Corbyn for talks - she would not take no deal off the table. You would presume that if it came to it, Parliament would vote the deal through (as it stands) rather than crash out.

Peregrinus

Folkstonian wrote: »

Absolutely. But voting to leave the U.K. will simply be a case of wading further into the swamp for the Scots. To return to frictionless trade and travel between itself and the European Union, it will be confronted with a hard border with England, with whom it does 75% of its trade.

It definitely puts them between a rock and a hard place, but honestly I don’t feel particularly sorry for them. I expect England is as tired of everything being its fault for the Scots as you as the EU are tired of everything being your fault according to the british

Folkstonian wrote: »

Possibly. Though you never had a land border with a market of 50 million so the circumstances are somewhat different.

I’m not trying to make a case for them to stay in the union, lots of good people in Scotland but the hostility towards England is extremely unhealthy and probably requires drastic change to release the pressure

Couple of thoughts:

First, there’s a curious contradiction here. Given that Scotland doesn’t want to Brexit at all, you’d think that, the harder the Brexit into which they are dragged, the greater the boost this gives to the Scottish independence movement. But, the harder the Brexit, then the higher will be the barriers to trade between independent Scotland and rump UK with whom, as you point out, they do most of their trade. Therefore, the harder the Brexit, the greater the economic impact of independence.

This is not a healthy dynamic. (Healthy for the British Union, I mean). A hard Brexit gives the Scots more reasons to want independence, but also more pain if they opt for independence. That might (or might not) keep Scotland in the Union, but it’s certainly not conducive to keeping Scotland happily in the Union. For a unionist, this is a lose-lose situation.

Secondly, as to England being tired of “everything being its fault”, the problem here is that the union is currently structured and operated so that everything is its fault. This is a hugely skewed union, completely dominated by England. We see this in lots of ways. There is, for example, no English parliament/government, not because the English are oppressed by comparison with the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish, but because they are politically privileged. They take it for granted - and they are quite correct - that the UK parliament and government will always find time to deal with English concerns, will always attach great weight to English interests, will always do what England wants or needs to be done. England has such effective control over the institutions of the UK that it does not need its own institutions. And very few people in England find this remotely surprising, or pause to ask themselves whether it is right that the affairs and concerns of England should have such a high priority in the UK’s political institutions. They take their privilege for granted. Mostly, they do not even recognise that they are privileged.

Brexit is a case in point. Before the referendum was held, the question was raised in the UK parliament as to whether a qualified majority should be required for the referendum to be carried. Perhaps, for instance, such a major change should require both a majority of the UK as a whole, and a majority in a majority of the countries that make up the UK? (This, as it happens, is the requirement for amending the Australian constitution.) The government’s answer was to say no, the referendum was purely advisory, and therefore Parliament could make a judgment, after the result was known, as to whether it gave a sufficient mandate for any particular action, and could take that question into account. And yet when the referendum result was known, that question was never considered. Scotland opposed Brexit, and by a larger majority than England favoured it, but no consideration at all was given to the question of whether a Leave majority depending entirely on English votes should be applied to the whole UK. Having been deferred at first, the issue was simply ignored.

So, if the Scots do have a “blame the English” streak to them, perhaps that’s an understandable or expected response to the political realities of the UK. And if, as you say, “drastic change” is required to address the problem, that change may well be constitutional change in the UK to prevent the Scots from being sidelined in the affairs of the UK simply because (a) they are less numerous than the English, and (b) the UK has a strong, simplistic, majoritarian “winner-takes-all” culture and political institutions.

In other words, the change that is needed may be for the English to surrender the entrenched privilege that comes from being by a long measure the largest nation in a United Kingdom which is rules on simple majoritarian lines.

(But that's probably outside the scope of the Brexit thread.)

J Mysterio

Peregrinus wrote:

(But that's probably outside the scope of the Brexit thread.)

I think it's entirely relevant and I agree, but I also think that if the UK has a crash out Brexit (or maybe even the May deal), no amount of constitutional change or political restructuring will keep Scotland in the UK - it will be too late.

J Mysterio

Leo will be in Belfast tomorrow to talk with the 'main political parties', before dinner with May back in Dublin tomorrow evening.

Would love to be a fly on the wall for the meeting with the DUP. I wonder will Sammy attend?

Irish officials on Thursday played down the significance of Friday’s meeting over dinner, which was requested by Downing Street. Officials stressed that it will not be a bilateral negotiation on Brexit, as negotiations with Britain are handled by the European Commission team led by Michel Barnier."

Mr Varadkar will be in Belfast earlier on Friday for meetings with Northern Ireland’s main political parties.

"These meetings will provide an opportunity to discuss the ongoing political impasse in Northern Ireland which has been without an Executive and an Assembly for more than two years, and to get the parties’ views on how progress can be made to break the current deadlock.

"The Taoiseach will also hear the parties’ concerns on the latest Brexit developments and [the meetings] will allow the Taoiseach to brief them on his meetings in Brussels earlier in the week,” the Government said on Thursday night.

Mr Varadkar and Mrs May will discuss the continued suspension of the Stormont institutions, as well as Brexit.

Irish Times

No-deal Brexit: UK exporters risk being locked out of world's harbours

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/07/no-deal-brexit-uk-exporters-risk-being-locked-out-of-world-harbours

Something I had never considered. These ships are embarking on journeys with no certainty. It could be like the Suez Canal debacle but in peacetime.

Calina

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No-deal Brexit: UK exporters risk being locked out of world's harbours

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/07/no-deal-brexit-uk-exporters-risk-being-locked-out-of-world-harbours

Something I had never considered. These ships are embarking on journeys with no certainty. It could be like the Suez Canal debacle but in peacetime.

This has been flagged alright as the start of February approached. It is really just another sign of how utterly incoherent the UK's approach to Brexit, its own policy. It is like having a policy of baking bread and failing to ensure you had a supply of yeast.

Calina

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is just shoddy journalism. Kuenssburg just misses the real story again and again.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1093643616201986048

Somehow May is 'winning the perception war'. Really. Look at the head on her there.

The interesting thing here, is she is winning the perception war. But that particular warzone extends only to the UK. She doesn't care what the European press and Europeans think and aside from a few people who keep an eye on Tony Connolly, most British people pay no attention to press outside the UK.

In absolutely normal terms, the extent to which the press is complicit in not addressing reality here would be worrying. Ultimately, the morms by which UK power structures are held to account are not working here as neither the media nor the opposition are reflecting harsh light on the government. HoC is in total disarray. And May only has to control what British people think here. She is definitely winning on that front.

She _knows_ what the EU position is here but it is irrelevant in the context.

spacecoyote

alloywheel wrote: »

But our GDP is skewed by multinationals laundering money / profits here that is earns elsewhere, like Apple. The Singapore economy is much more successful than Irelands, it does not owe 200 billion , nor has it received EEC / EU handouts like we have.

Ah ok, so you agree with the majority of people on here then...Ireland would be in much worse shape if we were outside the EU, because we wouldn't have received any of those evil EU handouts!!!

And as to the UKs EU membership and contributions, you do realise that there is more to EU membership than just how much money you put in & get out.

To name just a couple of them:
You're getting free access to a market of around 500m for your business

You're getting the benefit of the 60-70 international trade deals that they have negotiated, at length on their members behalf, so can trade internationally on their terms.

You have access to all that transient seasonal cheap labour that the British seem to hate, even though they're doing the jobs the British themselves don't want to do & which prop up their agricultural industry (alongside the agro subsidies the farmers are getting from the EU)

woohoo!!!

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

That's pretty much what I'd have expected. Happy with our government and the people's view on all of this.

Peregrinus

alloywheel wrote: »

But our GDP is skewed by multinationals laundering money / profits here that is earns elsewhere, like Apple. The Singapore economy is much more successful than Irelands, it does not owe 200 billion , nor has it received EEC / EU handouts like we have.

Singapore is not in the EU, but it is right at the centre of ASEAN, a regional supramational organisation which is building a single market constructed on the four freedoms, intentionally and explicitly modelled on . . . oh, I can't remember which supranational union, but I'm sure it'll come to me in a minute.

So, maybe not the best examplar for how a European country might fare, were it to leave the EU.

Oh, and Singapore owes a lot more than we do. It's debt-to-GDP ratio is 177.4%; Ireland's is 70%.

Customary reminder for Brexit Forum: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057953333

Good support so far. You need to thank it or +1.

gimli2112

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

It's funny but I'm still surprised as many as 1 in 5 think we should cut ties with the EU. I don't understand how someone can arrive at that conclusion particularly looking at the mess across the water.

VinLieger

gimli2112 wrote: »

It's funny but I'm still surprised as many as 1 in 5 think we should cut ties with the EU. I don't understand how someone can arrive at that conclusion particularly looking at the mess across the water.

There literally is an anti everything base of voters in Ireland, i think 1 in 5 probably over estimates them but think of the kind of person who constantly retweets or likes stuff by gemma o doherty and john waters and that's the kind of person we are dealing with who thinks we should leave the EU.

Peregrinus

gimli2112 wrote: »

It's funny but I'm still surprised as many as 1 in 5 think we should cut ties with the EU. I don't understand how someone can arrive at that conclusion particularly looking at the mess across the water.

They don't think we should cut ties with the EU. They think that if we had to choose between the two we should cut ties with the EU rather than the UK - a very important qualification.

And their choice to opt for the UK may not be based on anything that goes on across the water, but on the consideration that a signficant part of this country is in the UK.

seamus

Peregrinus wrote: »

And their choice to opt for the UK may not be based on anything that goes on across the water, but on the consideration that a signficant part of this country is in the UK.

UK exports account for around 20% of the total. The preference is probably economic more than anything else.

Hurrache

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I'll just leave this here.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

I was one of those polled
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

Tell me how

Think the Brexiteers are feeling sheepish? Think that they have realised they were daydreaming as to how difficult this would be?

Think again. (especially last 5 seconds)

https://twitter.com/Dave_Burns_/status/1093674203658833920

They are going to have such a f*cking party on the 30th of March if they are out with No Deal, they don't care a picogram as to what might be left behind.

Anthracite

gimli2112 wrote: »

It's funny but I'm still surprised as many as 1 in 5 think we should cut ties with the EU. I don't understand how someone can arrive at that conclusion particularly looking at the mess across the water.

There is a large percentage of cranks and uninformed in any population.

Peregrinus

seamus wrote: »

UK exports account for around 20% of the total. The preference is probably economic more than anything else.

if so, it's not a well-informed preference. Our exports to the EU-26 are several times greater than our exports to the UK; if we want to choose the option which does least damage to our exports, we should cut ties with the UK rather than the EU.