Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I read this as intentional briefing to put pressure on the DUP?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47170711?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics

I don't think this threat would work. The DUP might prefer to take their chances on a border poll rather than accept what they'd view as a de-facto annexation.

View

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm open to correcting here but the EU sets the minimum VAT and it's this minimum that forms a countries EU subscription. Isn't it like the first 18% goes to Brussels and the extra over stays at home?


The EU might be best staying away from taxation, least a light be shined on the fact the employees of the EU institutions do not pay income tax.

None of that negates the point I was making.

The member states have agreed a common set of rules for VAT. That doesn’t mean that it results in you paying an indentical VAT rate on a product as a person in Greece or Finland.

Also, it is the member states that tasked the EU with dealing with taxation. Having done that, they can’t expect the EU not to deal with taxation. That doesn’t mean though that the member states will agree a common system.

Strazdas

Laois_Man wrote: »

THIS!

And it also never gets pointed out that the EU simply has no choice on backing us. They surveyed the positions of all 27 member states and took the negotiating position that all would agree to. Permitting a hard border in Ireland was always going to be vetoed by Ireland - therefore, they did not have the authority to negotiate one!

It would be insane for the EU to back a country who was leaving the EU forever over a member state who who is remaining and who is loyal to the EU.

The Brexiteers massively overestimated their own hand and didn't realise they would be completely isolated by choosing to walk away.

FrancieBrady

Enzokk wrote: »

More of the same from May really, she has tried to blackmail MPs using no deal as a threat. She has tried to bribe Labour MPs by giving their constituencies more money and now she is trying to coerce the DUP by talking about a border poll. And I suspect if all of those MPs that voted against her deal votes for it next month then all of her promises and assurances will turn out to be lies. How can May who stood on the steps of Downing Street and talked of the Conservative and UNIONIST party, because they believe in the Union, now all of a sudden call a border poll? Charlatan and a liar.

Said it before - a border poll was always going to be the Tories revenge. Unionism, no harm to it has only managed to bite the hand that feeds it in the modern era.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

It would be insane for the EU to back a country who was leaving the EU forever over a member state who who is remaining and who is loyal to the EU.

The Brexiteers massively overestimated their own hand and didn't realise they would be completely isolated by choosing to walk away.

It wouldn't be insane, it could be just realpolitik. And it was this that the Brexiteers gambled on. Yes, it would have undermined the Union, but the Union has taken action/inaction that had had that outcome before.

If it was a given that the EU would come to a position behind Ireland then Ireland wouldn't have needed to carry out the mighty diplomatic effort to shape and rally that support.

Infini

Enzokk wrote: »

How can May who stood on the steps of Downing Street and talked of the Conservative and UNIONIST party, because they believe in the Union, now all of a sudden call a border poll? Charlatan and a liar.

Quite simple really. Ireland is a nuisance to them, the border is an unwanted cost of Brexit. As things stand however in the event of a Hard Crash, May will be gone or given the boot shortly afterwards. As all this is going on civil disorder and protest along with the corrosive economic effects push opinions in NI into supporting a majority looking for reunification as a way out of the situation. GFA might be strained but its still in effect. Border poll happens and is passed.

Result: Ireland Reunified, NI gets economic benefits, Land Border removed, UK pays any costs of Unification on their side, Most people happy, DUP gets rekt by virtue of Karmic Irony (thats what they get for not even researching the damn costs of their policys and blindly underming their union with their ideological stupidity).

breatheme

Well, this feeds into my Sinn Fein theory:

Step 1: No deal Brexit
Step 2: Border Poll
Step 3: ???
Step 4: Profit!

If that is really what they want then they were good at playing the long game. But it still remains to be seen if there is a No Deal Brexit.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It wouldn't be insane, it could be just realpolitik. And it was this that the Brexiteers gambled on. Yes, it would have undermined the Union, but the Union has taken action/inaction that had had that outcome before.

If it was a given that the EU would come to a position behind Ireland then Ireland wouldn't have needed to carry out the mighty diplomatic effort to shape and rally that support.

It's true that they gambled but it was predicated in the Brexiteer belief that the UK was a superpower and the equal of the EU (or even superior).....Farage told them they simply didn't need the EU and it was holding them back

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Said it before - a border poll was always going to be the Tories revenge. Unionism, no harm to it has only managed to bite the hand that feeds it in the modern era.

The Northern Ireland secretary calls a Border Poll, don't they? And only at such time as there appears to be at least some chance it could pass? If that's correct, it can't really be an issue of revenge to have a Border Poll. If the Tories were petty about it and wanted to get revenge on the Unionists, what I suppose they could do is stagger funding for the region, but that would be pretty extreme as well.

A Dub in Glasgo

Last nights QT episode was the most blatent bit of audience rigging the BBC managed so far. The Brexit loving anti-Scottish independence person is a loyalist and an ex-UKIP canditate and has managed to get into the audience on four different episodes of QT in Scotland, three of which he got to ask questions Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1093854891016159233

breatheme

briany wrote: »

The Northern Ireland secretary calls a Border Poll, don't they? And only at such time as there appears to be at least some chance it could pass? If that's correct, it can't really be an issue of revenge to have a Border Poll. If the Tories were petty about it and wanted to get revenge on the Unionists, what I suppose they could do is stagger funding for the region, but that would be pretty extreme as well.

'Tis true... but the GFA doesn't actually state what the criteria for assessing that is. Theoretically, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland could use whatever criteria they liked and then call it.

So if there's at least one poll that has a majority for unification (and technically, we already have one with that result then, yes. They can call for a border poll.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

The Northern Ireland secretary calls a Border Poll, don't they? And only at such time as there appears to be at least some chance it could pass? If that's correct, it can't really be an issue of revenge to have a Border Poll. If the Tories were petty about it and wanted to get revenge on the Unionists, what I suppose they could do is stagger funding for the region, but that would be pretty extreme as well.

That's the optics of it. And was a sop to the remaining influence unionists had at the time.

You can be sure a border poll will be called when it it is politically expedient to do it. The SOS can massage his/her opinion to suit as it only has to 'appear' to him/her that there is a likely majority.

Hurrache

Negotiations between the UK and Japan not going to well for the UK. Who'd have thought that the UK may end up with a worse deal than the one they would have had when in the EU?

Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU, and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group. 

“The new agreement is not just a copy-and-paste of the existing treaty,” said one Japanese official briefed on the talks. “The tariffs, rules and quotas need to be negotiated separately.”

The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal — a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 — highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ce60af2-2b90-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

More of the same from May really, she has tried to blackmail MPs using no deal as a threat. She has tried to bribe Labour MPs by giving their constituencies more money and now she is trying to coerce the DUP by talking about a border poll. And I suspect if all of those MPs that voted against her deal votes for it next month then all of her promises and assurances will turn out to be lies. How can May who stood on the steps of Downing Street and talked of the Conservative and UNIONIST party, because they believe in the Union, now all of a sudden call a border poll? Charlatan and a liar.

It is not for May to call a border poll, that is something the Secretary for NI is required to do under the GFA if it ever becomes likely that a majority would vote for unification. May is entirely correct that a no-deal Brexit risks a border poll being called because it could cause a majority in NI to back unification.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar trying to claim there are no negotiations going on today on Brexit.

Media are not buying that with the two attorney generals meeting...

breatheme

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It is not for May to call a border poll, that is something the Secretary for NI is required to do under the GFA if it ever becomes likely that a majority would vote for unification. May is entirely correct that a no-deal Brexit risks a border poll being called because it could cause a majority in NI to back unification.

May can totally call a border poll if she wants to.

May: Yo, Secretary of State for NI, call a border poll.
SISNI: OK!

briany

breatheme wrote: »

So if there's at least one poll that has a majority for unification (and technically, we already have one with that result then, yes. They can call for a border poll.

If Sinn Fein were smart about it and wanted to get their goal of Irish unification across the line, they'd want to make sure there really was support for Irish unity on the ground.

I know that's an incredibly obvious thing to say, but it seems to me that SF are so focused on the idea of this Border Poll, that they'd support it even if the only survey shown to favour Irish unity was a 50.1% in something like the South Armagh Leader.

johnnyskeleton

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Another tremendous contribution Columbo, but I had gathered that already.

Mod note:

Serious and respectful comments only please.

Imreoir2

breatheme wrote: »

May can totally call a border poll if she wants to.

May: Yo, Secretary of State for NI, call a border poll.
SISNI: OK!

Perhaps I should rephrase, the calling of a border poll is not dependant on the PM's personal ideological convictions. While a Unionists PM may never want to call a border poll, the Secretary of State for NI is required to call one should the condtions set out under the GFA be met, even if the PM is not delighted about it.

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

May is entirely correct that a no-deal Brexit risks a border poll being called because it could cause a majority in NI to back unification.

Have surveys been done on this, or is it more like things would get so bad that we're confident NI public opinion would swing in favour of a UI?

oscarBravo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The EU might be best staying away from taxation, least a light be shined on the fact the employees of the EU institutions do not pay income tax.

That's not true.

breatheme

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Perhaps I should rephrase, the calling of a border poll is not dependant on the PM's personal ideological convictions. While a Unionists PM may never want to call a border poll, the Secretary of State for NI is required to call one should the condtions set out under the GFA be met, even if the PM is not delighted about it.

Perhaps, but the argument right now is whether or not May can threaten the DUP with a border poll, which she totally can.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

Have surveys been done on this, or is it more like things would get so bad that we're confident NI public opinion would swing in favour of a UI?

A number of polls in NI in recent months have shown that a majority would back unification if Brexit happens, with a stronger majority if it is a no-deal Brexit. Now, it is one thing to say this when asked for a poll before Brexit happens, and quite another to vote for unification after Brexit happens, but in any case there is evidence that Brexit can shift opinion in NI in favour of unification.

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar trying to claim there are no negotiations going on today on Brexit.

Media are not buying that with the two attorney generals meeting...

They might be 'negotiating' wordage in the political declaration. That's a negotiation about optics, meaningless as to future outcomes (beside the purpose of getting the draft withdrawal agreement voted through).

They might be weighing and exploring the Corbyn option. That's not a negotiation (yet: Barnier would need mandating about it, so first it would fneed to do the EU27 rounds, with each putting their tuppence about it, before consensus and then pushing Barnier back onto centre stage with his brief).

They sure as hell aren't renegotiating the draft withdrawal agreement. Which is the real meat and bones of the situation.

SNASFU.

MrMusician18

oscarBravo wrote: »

That's not true.

They pay some sort of levy, but they do not pay income tax. My old housemate works for the ECB

There isn't much difference between gross and nett lets say.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar trying to claim there are no negotiations going on today on Brexit.

Media are not buying that with the two attorney generals meeting...

He stressed on RTE last night that such a meeting is not 'that' unusual and that there is no absolutely question of a bilateral negotiation between the UK and Ireland......everything must go through the EU and Barnier

Fr Tod Umptious

Imreoir2 wrote: »

A number of polls in NI in recent months have shown that a majority would back unification if Brexit happens, with a stronger majority if it is a no-deal Brexit. Now, it is one thing to say this when asked for a poll before Brexit happens, and quite another to vote for unification after Brexit happens, but in any case there is evidence that Brexit can shift opinion in NI in favour of unification.

Do you have a link to these polls

I'd like to review them.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar trying to claim there are no negotiations going on today on Brexit.

Media are not buying that with the two attorney generals meeting...

What? Are the media saying that after 2+ years where Ireland got the EU on its side and watched as Barnier handled the negotiations and thus removed any ability of the UK to use it power over the smaller country, that suddenly Leo is going to turn his back on the EU and decide to go it alone?

TM has held talks with many EU leaders across the last few years, particularly last summer when she went on a diplomatic drive including Macron. That achieved almost nothing.

She might well be trying to achieve something, but all Leo has to do is going to stress that its the UK leaving the EU not leaving Ireland

4068ac1elhodqr

briany wrote: »

If Sinn Fein were smart about it and wanted to get their goal of Irish unification across the line, they'd want to make sure there really was support for Irish unity on the ground.

One event that could be an overnight +5% margin increase would be something not of these shores i.e. Scottish Indep.

They've had one before, and with the Brexit changes (hard or soft), it can easily happen again, and win.

If they were (very) smart their immediate focus would be along the lines of airing 'Braveheart' on STV as much as possible. Once Larne-Stranraer becomes more difficult than a quick jaunt down the M1, dynamics change.

Often, to win a game of chess, you don't go straight for the queen or an early checkmate. Instead take out the two knights, then one bishop and one rook/castle, then you begin to control the board.

View

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They pay some sort of levy, but they do not pay income tax. My old housemate works for the ECB

There isn't much difference between gross and nett lets say.

The “some sort of levy” is the “community income tax”.