Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

View wrote: »

The “some sort of levy” is the “community income tax”.

And it's far from a marginal rate of 50%. It's SFA.

prawnsambo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Do you have a link to these polls

I'd like to review them.

The BelTel published a few of them. LucidTalk are running them every month afaik. Look back through my posting history, because I linked to one of them. LucidTalk should be your search term.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

What? Are the media saying that after 2+ years where Ireland got the EU on its side and watched as Barnier handled the negotiations and thus removed any ability of the UK to use it power over the smaller country, that suddenly Leo is going to turn his back on the EU and decide to go it alone?

TM has held talks with many EU leaders across the last few years, particularly last summer when she went on a diplomatic drive including Macron. That achieved almost nothing.

She might well be trying to achieve something, but all Leo has to do is going to stress that its the UK leaving the EU not leaving Ireland

It could be a situation where a wording has to be run by us first before going to Brussels. Or it could be something completely unrelated like tryiing to get Stormont back up and running.

Peregrinus

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And it's far from a marginal rate of 50%. It's SFA.

The tax is levied on a sliding scale that starts at 8% and rises to 45%. On top of that is a 12.4% contribution to pensions and healthcare (equivalent to social insurance for an Irish-taxed employee) plus a 6% "solidarity levy" (7% for senior officials). The total marginal rate can easily exceed 50%, though the average rate rarely does.

Leroy42

So Japan has come and and said that the recent trade deal with the EU will not be rolled over to the UK in a No Deal scenario.

An entirely new trade deal will need to be negotiated.

Water John

This is an interesting piece by Roland Alter
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/08/brexit-northern-ireland-backstop

He puts forward the idea, not of a border poll but a poll in NI asking them do they want to remain in the EU CU.
BTW he gives an example of a part of Austria that used to be in Germany's CU, but politically was part of Austria.

Now I'd say the DUP would be aghast at such a poll.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1093902106069745664

A marked shift in PR this week. Some are suggesting that this means that EU have completely given up hope getting a deal. I'm not sure about that myself, what benefit is there from tweets like this?

Tell me how

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1093902106069745664

A marked shift in PR this week. Some are suggesting that this means that EU have completely given up hope getting a deal. I'm not sure about that myself, what benefit is there from tweets like this?

To finally jolt the UK in to reality of what is happening.

People like Katya Adler still adds the line to every report from Brussels that "this is what the EU do, they stall, and stall and stall and then they compromise."

The UK thinks they can get away with their WW2 rhetoric and that they EU will come round to offer compromises while being insulted.

It's time they woke up.

Imreoir2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1093902106069745664

A marked shift in PR this week. Some are suggesting that this means that EU have completely given up hope getting a deal. I'm not sure about that myself, what benefit is there from tweets like this?

And leo weighed in too

https://twitter.com/complainforleo/status/1093902806484963328

Somehow I don't think @complainforleo is a verified account.

Dytalus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And leo weighed in too

https://twitter.com/complainforleo/status/1093902806484963328

That's a parody account, not the actual account for Varadkar. Unfortunately, I'd enjoy seeing the reaction if that were Leo's actual response.

Leonard Hofstadter

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And leo weighed in too

That's not Leo's account....

Seth Brundle

In terms of the discussion on a border poll, this unelected commentator seems to think she has the final say...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1093886628148346880


Meanwhile, in the real world, another country has prepared itslf for a hard Brexit...

https://twitter.com/business/status/1093871000343597056

spacecoyote

Hurrache wrote: »

Negotiations between the UK and Japan not going to well for the UK. Who'd have thought that the UK may end up with a worse deal than the one they would have had when in the EU?



https://www.ft.com/content/5ce60af2-2b90-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

So they were trying a cheeky one by trying to lump into the TPP as well. That would be a pretty big stretch given the UKs geographical position relative to the Pacific!

One wonders is that the height of their negotiator's talents:

1. Can you just give us the same deal you gave the EU?
2. If not, can you let us in to the TPP?

Doesn't bode well for them if that's their best attempts! They'll be taken to the cleaners by the guys who've been playing this game for years putting together deals

LeinsterDub

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Somehow I don't think @complainforleo is a verified account.

****e very similar to his account handle . Damn fake news!

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

It could be a situation where a wording has to be run by us first before going to Brussels. Or it could be something completely unrelated like tryiing to get Stormont back up and running.

The official line is that the meeting is primarily about GFA issues, and getting Stormont up again, but of course there is overlap there with Brexity issues, so Brexit is likely to come up.

But it would be delusional, or grasping at straws, to imagine that as soon as Varadkar meets May he's going to lead Ireland into ploughing its own furrow on the backstop, separately from the EU line. Of course he's not going to do that. He's going to tell May that Ireland is very happy with the EU line and sees no need for it to change. And that Ireland will of course look with interest at any alternative proposals the UK may eventually get around to advancing, but will judge them against the criteria set out in the Joint Report. And that to the extent that any alternative arrangements depend on technological arrangements not yet agreed or not yet deliverable, the backstop will of course still be needed to provide protection in the event that they never do get agreed or delivered.

tuxy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And leo weighed in too

https://twitter.com/complainforleo/status/1093902806484963328

Why does that account fool so many people. It has very few follows and is even labelled as a parody account.
Twitter is a joke, filled we people just looking for something to be outraged by.

Personally I think politicians should stop using it as a platform to voice opinion.

briany

Water John wrote: »

This is an interesting piece by Roland Alter
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/08/brexit-northern-ireland-backstop

He puts forward the idea, not of a border poll but a poll in NI asking them do they want to remain in the EU CU.
BTW he gives an example of a part of Austria that used to be in Germany's CU, but politically was part of Austria.

Now I'd say the DUP would be aghast at such a poll.

An NI referendum on whether to go ahead with the backstop would have been the sane choice, but British politics reached an insane place where political point scoring and party politics overrode what was best for the country. That's even before the DUP waded right into the middle of the fray.

When we look back on this whole fiasco, we're going to increasingly realise how crazy it was that the people of NI were roundly ignored by the British media and their politicians. I mean Brexiteers love to trumpet the fact that they got 17.4 million votes, but the other fact that NI voted remain is doesn't even seem to register in the debate.

It's like two parents at war over who gets custody of the child, and they're so wrapped up in their opinions that the child is never consulted.

And with that in mind, it couldn't be any crazier than the current state of British politics to suggest that the solution is to let the UK have NI on Mon, Wed and Fri, and let the EU have NI on Tue, Thur and Sat, with Sundays rotating....

Peregrinus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1093902106069745664

A marked shift in PR this week. Some are suggesting that this means that EU have completely given up hope getting a deal. I'm not sure about that myself, what benefit is there from tweets like this?

Tusk, at any rate, has given up any hope that May will get her deal approved by ERG elements in the UK, and is going out of his way to make clear his disdain for them. Vefhofstadt is lending his weight to the campaign.

My guess is that his view is that May ought to seek cross-party consensus (which is what would happen in a normal European democracy, and the EU is frankly bewildered and frustrated that May is not attempting it). So he is perhaps trying to increase the incentive for her to do this by making it very plain, very publicly, that while she may get some tweaks to the PD they are not going to be the kind of tweaks that anyone could imagine might win over the ERG, and she should be targetting different tweaks altogether.

(Hoey, of course, is not in the ERG. But for these purposes she is a useful proxy for ERG positions.)

Water John

Yes the option of TM turning towards the Opposition for an agreed position is being openly pushed, with no sublety, by the key figures in the EU

MrMusician18

Peregrinus wrote: »

The tax is levied on a sliding scale that starts at 8% and rises to 45%. On top of that is a 12.4% contribution to pensions and healthcare (equivalent to social insurance for an Irish-taxed employee) plus a 6% "solidarity levy" (7% for senior officials). The total marginal rate can easily exceed 50%, though the average rate rarely does.

You forgot the expatriation allowance of 16%.

The average percentage tax for commission employees lies in the range of 12-25%

The average EU salary is €78503 rising to €91064 if you get the expatriation allowance. Taking averages, a take home of€70k would be what, gross salary of €145k in Ireland. The average


Pensions are 70% of final basic salary as well.

lawred2

tuxy wrote: »

Why does that account fool so many people. It has very few follows and is even labelled as a parody account.
Twitter is a joke, filled we people just looking for something to be outraged by.

Personally I think politicians should stop using it as a platform to voice opinion.

I don't know - brings out the village idiots for all to see

LeinsterDub

tuxy wrote: »

Why does that account fool so many people. It has very few follows and is even labelled as a parody account.
Twitter is a joke, filled we people just looking for something to be outraged by.

Personally I think politicians should stop using it as a platform to voice opinion.

Because it's very easy to miss the blue tick and a slightly different handle

tuxy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because it's very easy to miss the blue tick and a slightly different handle

And the description that says it's a parody account?
I agree it is very easy to miss all these things if you are looking to be outraged!

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

This is an interesting piece by Roland Alter
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/08/brexit-northern-ireland-backstop

He puts forward the idea, not of a border poll but a poll in NI asking them do they want to remain in the EU CU.
BTW he gives an example of a part of Austria that used to be in Germany's CU, but politically was part of Austria.

Now I'd say the DUP would be aghast at such a poll.

Here's that section of the LucidTalk poll from December:

Imreoir2

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Do you have a link to these polls

I'd like to review them.

Sure, Lucid Talk are the main polling company that works in NI, they have done several polls over the last year.

This one from December 2018 for example: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf

It shows that a poll held just after Brexit, in the case that the Deal is accepted, would come out at 48% Remain in the UK vs 48% in favour of a United Ireland. Lucid talk suggest that in this scenario a border poll would be close but probably result in a Pro UK result.

Another question in the same poll shows that if it was a no-deal Brexit, the result would be 42% Remain in the UK vs 55% in favour of a United Ireland. Lucid talk suggest that in this scenario a border poll would be close but probably result in a Pro UI result.

Interestingly Unionists remain just about as strongly in favour of remaing in the UK either way, but Nationalists almost 100% vote for a UI in a no-deal scenario and Neutrals hugely break in favour of a UI in a no-deal scenario too.
Also, for some reason, women seem to be a lot more republicen than men. Who knows why?

Peregrinus

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You forgot the expatriation allowance of 16%.

Not everybody gets the expatriation allowance. Depends on where you're posted.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The average percentage tax for commission employees lies in the range of 12-25%

That figure is badly out of date. It dates from before the solidarity levy was applied, IIRC. It's signficantly higher now - 18-31%. That's lower than the Irish rate, but not hugely lower - an Irish person on 75k would be paying about 35% in tax, depending on personal circumstances.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The average EU salary is €78503 rising to €91064 if you get the expatriation allowance. Taking averages, a take home of€70k would be what, gross salary of €145k in Ireland. The average

"Taking averages"? The person on the average salary of €78503from the EU is not taking home €70k after community income tax, levy and pension/health contributions.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Pensions are 70% of final basic salary as well.

Only with service of 30 years or more, which is a small minority of the staff. And EU fonctionaires pay much more towards their pensions than Irish public servants do.

Infini

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1093902106069745664

A marked shift in PR this week. Some are suggesting that this means that EU have completely given up hope getting a deal. I'm not sure about that myself, what benefit is there from tweets like this?

Once again a great laugh at how a dope like Hoey spout's untruths only to be given a factual slap down by the person they're criticising. Just another example of how so many MP's are so utterly ignorant of how the world actually works.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

In terms of the discussion on a border poll, this unelected commentator seems to think she has the final say...

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1093886628148346880


Meanwhile, in the real world, another country has prepared itslf for a hard Brexit...

https://twitter.com/business/status/1093871000343597056

Agony Arelene can delude herself all she want's just as she deluded herself on the cash for ash scandal but they're proven to be utterly incompetent, corrupt and blatently stupid expecially that report showing how for such a critical subject they didnt even bother to RESEARCH the subject before deciding what way to side in the Brexit Referendum and when a UI happen's she and her friends can either blame themselves for their own stupidity or adapt to that new reality but they brought it on themselves and did more for a UI than the IRA and troubles ever could have.

No suprise though about the German responce it's nearly guaranteed at this stage the Brit's are intent on crashing out and if there's one way to make them cop on it's to basically state were ready and expecting this.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Sure, Lucid Talk are the main polling company that works in NI, they have done several polls over the last year.

This one from December 2018 for example: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf

It shows that a poll held just after Brexit, in the case that the Deal is accepted, would come out at 48% Remain in the UK vs 48% in favour of a United Ireland. Lucid talk suggest that in this scenario a border poll would be close but probably result in a Pro UK result.

Another question in the same poll shows that if it was a no-deal Brexit, the result would be 42% Remain in the UK vs 55% in favour of a United Ireland. Lucid talk suggest that in this scenario a border poll would be close but probably result in a Pro UI result.

Interestingly Unionists remain just about as strongly in favour of remaing in the UK either way, but Nationalists almost 100% vote for a UI in a no-deal scenario and Neutrals hugely break in favour of a UI in a no-deal scenario too.
Also, for some reason, women seem to be a lot more republicen than men. Who knows why?

It's an interesting poll all the same. Couple of questions struck me. Asked if they thought the Irish government's actions have been helpful, 48% agreed, with 11% in the don't know camp. On the other hand, asked if the DUP's tactics have been correct, only 26% agreed with 7% don't know.

MrMusician18

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not everybody gets the expatriation allowance. Depends on where you're posted.


That figure is badly out of date. It dates from before the solidarity levy was applied, IIRC. It's signficantly higher now - 18-31%. That's lower than the Irish rate, but not hugely lower - an Irish person on 75k would be paying about 35% in tax, depending on personal circumstances.


"Taking averages"? The person on the average salary of €78503from the EU is not taking home €70k after community income tax, levy and pension/health contributions.


Only with service of 30 years or more, which is a small minority of the staff. And EU fonctionaires pay much more towards their pensions than Irish public servants do.

A small minority of staff for the moment.
I was including the expatriation allowance which applies to most Irish people posted to the EU, so yeah it would take an Irish person to be on about 145k to match the average commission salary after tax (25% of 90k).

And it isn't even the best and the brightest either in the ECB anyway. My old housemate said the staff are pretty ordinary not the superstars you might expect given the renumeration, no better than what you'd find in the Irish Central Bank and appointment can be down to luck as much as anything else.

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's an interesting poll all the same. Couple of questions struck me. Asked if they thought the Irish government's actions have been helpful, 48% agreed, with 11% in the don't know camp. On the other hand, asked if the DUP's tactics have been correct, only 26% agreed with 7% don't know.

Let's be fair in regards to their view's on the DUP's tactics they're not all fools and ideologues I would be suprised that many realise the DUPs anti's are totally counterproductive and that "Send em to the chippy" comment from Sammy won't go down well. Just show's how they treat their voters with utter contempt. I wouldn't be suprised if there's a few thinking about a UI and pondering how it will work out for them.