How can someone in their 30s afford a house - PLEASE READ MOD WARNING IN OP

Cyrus

Yurt! wrote: »

Particularly when the notional value of your asset is increasing.

anyone preoccupied with the unerlying value of their property is misguided.

your home needs to suit your needs and be affordable to you, anything else is noise.

lainey_d_123

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

More patronising nonsense. I don't know any single person who expects a 3-bed semi. The problem is that it's even almost impossible to buy a one-bed flat on an average wage. It would take over a decade to save enough for even a 10% deposit on the very cheapest property available right now in a bad area, according to your own calculations, and that's assuming the prices don't go up.

Of course they can! The flat may not be in their preferred area of Dublin.
What average wage are you taking?

RedXIV

RedXIV wrote: »

Just want to say thanks for a very entertaining and educational thread

Learned about the Help To Buy scheme which may actually speed up my chance of buying something! Thanks guys!

Same. Great thread.

Yurt2

Cyrus wrote: »

anyone preoccupied with the unerlying value of their property is misguided.

your home needs to suit your needs and be affordable to you, anything else is noise.

Agreed, but I don't think I'm overstating it that many in an erratic market are irrationaly scared of intervention as they deduce it might affect the underlying value of their property, and fight it all the way. I think it's particularly acute with those that bought high, are in 35 year mortgages and may be terrified of interest rate rises or a change of circumstances. Erratic markets (which we certainly have in Ireland) encourage a feast / famine mentality.

Yurt2

An example of this is a certain poster advocating HAP as a solution to the crisis. Despite the fact this scheme is already proving more expensive than putting bricks in the ground - keeping people in an unstable personal circumstances, and ultimately subsidising landlords and distorting the rental market. Some HAP monthly payments would be greater than posters mortgage payments for goodness sake. This is not to even speak of how much it costs to keep families in hotels. We're paying through the nose on the back end of this crisis already, so let's get to work and build houses for all demographics. The government supported housing coop model in Denmark is the best option to my mind. It's relatively cost neutral and the social dividend is huge.

He likely knows this, but it would stick in his craw that 'a layabout' would get 'sumptin for nuttin' when he's the bestest most hardworking boy there is.

GreeBo

Deleted User wrote: »

Well 8 hours is a typical working day. Its actually 9 for me when you factor in lunch.
Then potentially 3 hours commuting in total.

And the greater Dublin area is filling up quickly. What about the next generations? Move to Mayo and work in Dublin?

To be fair you said "12+ hours *going* to work" as in commuting.

What you really mean is 2-3 hours going to work and 8 hours at work.

An idea might be to live and work near where you can afford to?

GreeBo

alane20 wrote: »

For me a separated father of 3 no mortgage with ex, my best option and the course I'm pursuing is buying a small serviced site, for 35k and eventually put a log cabin on it, cabin will be about another 40k,

The planning system still isn't fully understanding of log cabins but planning for them is slowly becoming more frequent,

For my needs and budget it seems to be the best option,

Well done on finding a workable solution yourself rather than making it everyone elses problem to solve.

GreeBo

BTW those who are advocating an increase in lower priced houses are basically asking for the so called bubble to burst and couldn't give a fiddlers what that will do to all the people who will be swamped under negative equity.

Who's selfish now?

Yurt2

GreeBo wrote: »

BTW those who are advocating an increase in lower priced houses are basically asking for the so called bubble to burst and couldn't give a fiddlers what that will do to all the people who will be swamped under negative equity.

Who's selfish now?

Precisely zero people have called for that.

And you're the bestest most smartest hardworking boy. Why should I care if you're in negative equity. Not my problem.

Yurt2

Funnily enough you accept the outcome of the market when it suits you. Negative equity (inevitable in the property economics you advocate) is something you're running scared from.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

To be fair you said "12+ hours *going* to work" as in commuting.

What you really mean is 2-3 hours going to work and 8 hours at work.

An idea might be to live and work near where you can afford to?

Most jobs are in Dublin. Thats why the traffic is gridlocked for hours every morning and evening.

For me, the real concern is what happens in the future.
What happens when people that weren't able to buy a house end up at retirement age and still have to pay monthly rent with their pension? Do we start throwing pensioners on the streets if they cant pay?
What happens to the next generation when the greater Dublin area hits current Dublin prices? (Its not exactly cheap in Leinster either)

People on this thread have told me that its not the same as my parents era and you can't compare. So what about 20 years from now? Were will people live when Leinster is full?

FutureGuy

Don't spend 30k on a wedding and honeymoon and then cry about how you can't afford a mortgage (or even blame the government).

Kidkinobe

Deleted User wrote: »

Most jobs are in Dublin. Thats why the traffic is gridlocked for hours every morning and evening.

For me, the real concern is what happens in the future.
What happens when people that weren't able to buy a house end up at retirement age and still have to pay monthly rent with their pension? Do we start throwing pensioners on the streets if they cant pay?
What happens to the next generation when the greater Dublin area hits current Dublin prices? (Its not exactly cheap in Leinster either)

People on this thread have told me that its not the same as my parents era and you can't compare. So what about 20 years from now? Were will people live when Leinster is full?

Countries grow and evolve...30 years ago it took 1.5 hours to get from Portlaoise to Dublin on the one road available, now with the motor way , you can do it in an hour with no traffic. with traffic 2 hours. Another 30 years there may be super highways over the current motorway and a whole new traffic system in Dublin.

Kidkinobe

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Countries grow and evolve...30 years ago it took 1.5 hours to get from Portlaoise to Dublin on the one road available, now with the motor way , you can do it in an hour with no traffic. with traffic 2 hours. Another 30 years there may be super highways over the current motorway and a whole new traffic system in Dublin.

The country is growing but I don't think its evolving, certainly not fast enough.
All the evidence suggests that we are moving outwards.
The number of cars on the roads suggests our public transport is not up to scratch at all. ( We were recently voted one of the worst countries to drive in)

McCrack

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Countries grow and evolve...30 years ago it took 1.5 hours to get from Portlaoise to Dublin on the one road available, now with the motor way , you can do it in an hour with no traffic. with traffic 2 hours. Another 30 years there may be super highways over the current motorway and a whole new traffic system in Dublin.

45 min from toll to M50 (off peak)

mariaalice

Also, another thing I'm getting from this is some posters are looking to housing to solve other issues, modern developments are soulless etc. That why I think for those on their own, it is more than just about somewhere to live.

lainey_d_123

Kidkinobe wrote: »

They do it to educate their kids, put a roof over their heads and food on the table...they do it for 15/18 years and then cut back a bit, get a job closer to home with a lower income but enough to live and with a huge chunk off their mortgage..its a sacrifice people make to have a family. Come 60, they are still fit and healthy and mortgage free and entering their retirement years in a good position. People do the same thing in many other cities worldwide, its just a relatively new concept to Ireland which will take another 20 years to become the norm just like its the norm in London or New Your or Frankfurt etc.

Do you think it's beneficial for kids to have parents coming home at 8 or 9 o'clock at night, wrecked after a day of work and a two-hour commute? For their entire childhood? One parent working just to pay for the creche fees when the kids are young? People literally spending their entire youth working and commuting and barely seeing their kids so they're mortgage free when they're 60 and their joints are going and they're not able to do a lot of things they could have done 30 years earlier? Where's the 'life' part here, because I'm not seeing it.

It's truly amazing to me that so many people just accept this as 'normal'.

lainey_d_123

The Student wrote: »

Please read my post, I did not say a single person should be aspiring to a three bed semi. If they can afford one then work away.

If a single person is on €35k with a take home of €29k and takes home just under €600 per week. If they can't save an average of €40 from that then they should not take out a mortgage even a small mortgage even on a one bed apartment.

It appears to me that people want the cost of property to go down, they want the costs associated with the building the property to go down, but yet they don't want wages to go down, nor do they want income taxes to go down as they need these taxes to subsidize the building of these properties.

You can't have it everyway unless you can get every aspect of the raw materials to drop and expect labour to take a hit on their wages.

You can't argue with the basic laws of economics of supply and demand. We have a chronic undersupply of skilled labour for the building sector. Do you expect those limited resources to say " I am going to reduce my labour costs" to help society.

I don't you would find anyone to do that.

What I'm saying is that it's nigh on impossible for a single person in their 30s on an average wage to afford a house, or even a flat. Assuming you save that 20K over a decade, getting your first job at 22, there's virtually no chance that the prices won't rise in that time due to inflation and the property market. A flat that costs 200K today is likely to cost 300K in a decade's time. Rents are also rising far faster than wages are rising, leaving less and less money to save. This is a major issue for people trying to save for a deposit. They can't save as fast as prices are rising. There are no high interest savings accounts anymore either to help offset this problem.

Teddy Daniels

Deleted User wrote: »

The country is growing but I don't think its evolving, certainly not fast enough.
All the evidence suggests that we are moving outwards.
The number of cars on the roads suggests our public transport is not up to scratch at all. ( We were recently voted one of the worst countries to drive in)

We are one of the best countries to drive in. Dublin has bad traffic If that’s what you are referring to !

GreeBo

Deleted User wrote: »

Most jobs are in Dublin. Thats why the traffic is gridlocked for hours every morning and evening.

For me, the real concern is what happens in the future.
What happens when people that weren't able to buy a house end up at retirement age and still have to pay monthly rent with their pension? Do we start throwing pensioners on the streets if they cant pay?
What happens to the next generation when the greater Dublin area hits current Dublin prices? (Its not exactly cheap in Leinster either)

People on this thread have told me that its not the same as my parents era and you can't compare. So what about 20 years from now? Were will people live when Leinster is full?

Perhaps we should look to the rest of Europe to see what happens long term renters since they have been doing it that way for decades?

The natural progressions "when Leinster is full" is that people live and work elsewhere.
The infatuation with living and working in leafy Dublin is not sustainable if you are not in the upper ends of household income.

Lefty Bicek

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

What I'm saying is that it's nigh on impossible for a single person in their 30s on an average wage to afford a house, or even a flat. Assuming you save that 20K over a decade, getting your first job at 22,

The 'first job at 22' is a college-educated mindset, in fairness. Which often comes with some entitlement mindset.

College seems like a default mode now, where in the eighties it was prohibitive for a lot of us. Seems like a money racket now, to me. A lifestyle choice that is funnelling people into too-narrow channels of opportunity.

So the first thing people should be asking themselves is whether or not that's a sensible option for themselves. The number of lads I've met in their apprenticeship who have done a year or so of college, but then dropped out, is interesting.

Now they earn while they learn skills that don't require them to be narrowly based in Dublin or anywhere else at all.

there's virtually no chance that the prices won't rise in that time due to inflation and the property market. A flat that costs 200K today is likely to cost 300K in a decade's time.

We've heard confident predictions like that before, and not too long ago. Things didn't quite unfold that way. Cash will be king again and I don't think it will take a decade.

Rents are also rising far faster than wages are rising, leaving less and less money to save. This is a major issue for people trying to save for a deposit. They can't save as fast as prices are rising. There are no high interest savings accounts anymore either to help offset this problem.

It is indeed absurd that people are renting now for way over what would be a sustainable mortgage repayment for them.

That's why I don't strictly agree with the old-fashioned moralistic view that you should have to prove years upon years of saving for a deposit. Paying vast rent month in and month out is proof enough of ability to pay.

The rental market is so broken now that I would have no issue with 100% mortgages for some. No doubt though, like everything else that would be abused and screwed up.

Yurt2

GreeBo wrote: »

Perhaps we should look to the rest of Europe to see what happens long term renters since they have been doing it that way for decades?

The natural progressions "when Leinster is full" is that people live and work elsewhere.
The infatuation with living and working in leafy Dublin is not sustainable if you are not in the upper ends of household income.

Translation paragraph 1: I don't have any solutions and I don't care.

Translation paragraph 2: I don't have any solutions and I don't care. The periphery is a warehouse for povs.

baldbear

Kids in Dublin will have to stay living at home until there 30s in order to afford to buy their own homes and save like hell before then.

I moved to Dublin in 2012 rent cost me €340 a month. Then the Mrs moved up 2014 and our apartment cost €900, and move to €1040 by 2016. Both of us had to move up here for work.

Then we bought a gaff around where we rented & are now paying just over €1k a month. Timing worked out for us. If it was now we would be screwed. No rich parents to help us & €300k doesn't get you much in Dublin now.

It's so hard now for people to rent and save towards buying especially when they aren't living at home.

lainey_d_123

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

The 'first job at 22' is a college-educated mindset, in fairness. Which often comes with some entitlement mindset.

Hilarious. You grow up being told you need to go to college if you want to make anything of yourself, then once you've worked hard and got a degree, you're told you shouldn't expect anything out of it. You couldn't make it up.

College seems like a default mode now, where in the eighties it was prohibitive for a lot of us. Seems like a money racket now, to me. A lifestyle choice that is funnelling people into too-narrow channels of opportunity.

It is a racket now. Back before the 2008 crisis, it seemed a perfectly sensible choice for someone who wanted to make good money.

So the first thing people should be asking themselves is whether or not that's a sensible option for themselves. The number of lads I've met in their apprenticeship who have done a year or so of college, but then dropped out, is interesting.

Now they earn while they learn skills that don't require them to be narrowly based in Dublin or anywhere else at all.

Notice you said 'lads'. What's your apprenticeship? Not everyone has the ability to do manual work.

We've heard confident predictions like that before, and not too long ago. Things didn't quite unfold that way. Cash will be king again and I don't think it will take a decade.

It might and it might not. We don't know.

It is indeed absurd that people are renting now for way over what would be a sustainable mortgage repayment for them.

That's why I don't strictly agree with the old-fashioned moralistic view that you should have to prove years upon years of saving for a deposit. Paying vast rent month in and month out is proof enough of ability to pay.

The rental market is so broken now that I would have no issue with 100% mortgages for some. No doubt though, like everything else that would be abused and screwed up.

Exactly. If I had been able to save what I've paid in rent over the last 15 years, I'd have a deposit many times over.

Lefty Bicek

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Hilarious. You grow up being told you need to go to college if you want to make anything of yourself, then once you've worked hard and got a degree, you're told you shouldn't expect anything out of it. You couldn't make it up.

I don't think anyone is saying you shouldn't expect anything. That seems like an exaggeration, and not what I said at all.

It seems to me that you feel hard done by because your hard work hasn't paid off. Coming on top of some other circumstances.

Anyone who tells you that you need to go to college to make anything of yourself is a snob, or an idiot, or a liar. Or any combination of those.

It is a racket now. Back before the 2008 crisis, it seemed a perfectly sensible choice for someone who wanted to make good money.

So you were lied to then, surely ? Who or what is to blame for that ?

Notice you said 'lads'.

I said 'lads' because I speak about what I know.

There are more woman in the trades than in the past, but that is neither here nor there for the purposes of my main point.

Which is that college is too often now seen as the first option. It needn't be.

What's your apprenticeship? Not everyone has the ability to do manual work.

I'm not an apprentice, I am qualified. I help train them though, that's just a normal part of being a tradesman.

It might and it might not. We don't know.

Agreed. But you said - 'there's virtually no chance that the prices won't rise...'

Exactly. If I had been able to save what I've paid in rent over the last 15 years, I'd have a deposit many times over.

lainey_d_123

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

I don't think anyone is saying you shouldn't expect anything. That seems like an exaggeration, and not what I said at all.

It seems to me that you feel hard done by because your hard work hasn't paid off. Coming on top of some other circumstances.

Anyone who tells you that you need to go to college to make anything of yourself is a snob, or an idiot, or a liar. Or any combination of those.



So you were lied to then, surely ? Who or what is to blame for that ?

Well, I needed to go to do any of the jobs I was interested in. The people from my school who didn't go either had a family business to go into, or they wanted to do a trade/manual work, or have kids as early as possible and sit on the dole or they wanted to do something like hotel management or become a chef. None of these things applied to me. I know plenty of people who have been held back by not having a degree, especially now they're used as just another screening tool to weed out applicants, when you have 500 people applying for a role.

I said 'lads' because I speak about what I know.

There are more woman in the trades than in the past, but that is neither here nor there for the purposes of my main point.

Which is that college is too often now seen as the first option. It needn't be.



I'm not an apprentice, I am qualified. I help train them though, that's just a normal part of being a tradesman.

Sure, but trades aren't for everyone either. And if everyone suddenly decided to become a plumber, that market would be saturated. The problem isn't that too many people are going to college, it's that there are too many people and not enough jobs. And when you get a gap in the market, loads of people go to learn that thing and there ends up being an over-supply. I have loads of friends who did programming courses because they kept being told there were loads of jobs in it, only to struggle to get anything. And if they did get jobs, they weren't well-paid.

Agreed. But you said - 'there's virtually no chance that the prices won't rise...'

I think it's way more likely they'll go up rather than down. Look at London.

Lefty Bicek

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Well, I needed to go to do any of the jobs I was interested in.

There's a cost to everything. And the cost of doing the job you're interested in may well be lower money than you could get for doing something you are not as interested in, but for which there is demand.

Since you knew what you wanted to do, you must have had some idea of salaries ? And therefore, of reasonable lifestyle expectations.

The problem isn't that too many people are going to college, it's that there are too many people and not enough jobs.

Do you see anything incongruous in that ?

pwurple

Ahem.

We reached full employment last July, 2018.

There are shedloads of jobs. I have a raft of open positions I can't fill.

alexmalalex

pwurple wrote: »

Ahem.

We reached full employment last July, 2018.

There are shedloads of jobs. I have a raft of open positions I can't fill.

Doesn't surprise me :cool:

Dearg81

lainey_d_123 wrote:

I have loads of friends who did programming courses because they kept being told there were loads of jobs in it, only to struggle to get anything. And if they did get jobs, they weren't well-paid.

Your friends shouldn't being doing programming because they think there's loads of jobs, they need to have an interest in it which might explain why some of them didn't get a job. Also nobody walks into a junior dev role and gets well paid, they need to stick at it for at least a few years before they get decent money.