Grand National 2019 Aintree

yaboya1

del roy wrote: »

True but a
lot of the race conditions have changed over the last 8/9 years so you have to take that on board

I know, and not having a go at you, but that is definitely worded like being an 8yo is not good when the opposite now seems to be the case. What happened in the mid nineties is irrelevant when looking at the race now. It used to be the case you could fairly confidently rule out anything rated 150+ given the weight they'd to carry. Now you almost need a 150 rated horse just to get into the race!

Bangor Billy

There is no point in looking at 28 year trends. The race today bears no comparison to the race it was in 1991.

Gavin "shels"

del roy wrote: »

I'm lazy I need someone to go thru it all and tell me which one.

Was my question to you

longshotvalue

Grand National

I’ve had Valseur Lido in mind for this race all year, since re watching last year’s race and realizing how well he ran. He travelled as well as anything to the 2nd last but didn’t stay on the heavy ground with a big weight. He hasn’t looked great this year but to my eye has been gradually improving each time. His best run was in the national trial behind Rathvinden. He then went to Cheltenham for the Brown Advisory, which is never going to be far enough. He travelled well without ever being in the race and was actually beginning to stay on when a big mistake 3 out finished any small chance he had.
He has dropped a huge 12lbs since his run in the national last year and I just can’t get it out of my head that on seeing that run last year he will surely be ready for a big run. The more I watch it the more I think you’d have to try and get him here of a good mark for a shot, given he isn’t really going to win anymore grade 1s.
Anyway he is 100/1 with 6 places with paddy power and 100/1 5 places ¼ place with bet365, and I’d be knocking them over at those prices. In my view if he avoids carnage on the first circuit we’ll be right in the firing line 3 out and that’s all you can ask of a 100/1 Shot.

3 Points EW NRNB 100/1 6 places paddy Power or 5 places Bet365 ¼ place.

del roy

Gavin shels wrote: »

Was my question to you

Ya got me, Gav.

del roy

Lads
These stats are from. Geegeez.co.uk

Nulty

Pairofbrowneyes hasn't been tested over an extreme staying distance and in fact needed to win his last race in order to qualify for the National. He'd won the same race (Leinster National) at Gowran last season but it was just under 3m, but he won it again this year off 7lbs higher. He's now officially 10lbs well in for the National and given the confidence in the horse going into last years Irish National I would be expecting a big effort from the horse at Aintree.

He comes into the race off the back of a career best performance and has all of the improvement under his belt without a penalty. He goes on any ground winning on Heavy to Good. The main worries about the horse have to be the fact he fell in the irish national last year. The horse just didn't jump, it looked like a brain freeze and something I wouldn't be too worried about as he's a very reliable jumper the rest of the time.

He's by Luso who's had a few horses run in the National and some that didn't get home like Hear The Echo. He was out of a Strong Gale mare who's progeny have had surprisingly few placers and no winners in the national for a staying sire and now the course is two furlongs shorter than that year. Some others by Luso include Chicago Grey (PU) who was a poor slow jumper and Priests Leap (14th twice).

He's likely to be ridden by P Townend with Walsh likely to opt for Rathvinden.

Based on his rating, his latest performance, and the confidence behind him in the Irish National there he has to be considered as a candidate to win the race.

Dr. Bre

What’s the crack with pleasant company these days - went close last year

RivetingRoger

They should throw Yorkhill in...............just for the craic like!!!!!!Mad bastard that he is!!

WicklowBrave

RivetingRoger wrote: »

They should throw Yorkhill in...............just for the craic like!!!!!!Mad bastard that he is!!

I'd say the owner has had enough of his horses dying in the last month.

Copper_pipe

Bristol De Mai out. Weights up 4 pounds.

Nulty

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Bristol De Mai out. Weights up 4 pounds.

Thought that would happen. Tiger Roll will have to carry 11-5, something I think will only diminish his chances, leaving the current price even worse in terms of value.

The Mig

Could that mean Keith Donohue rides Tiger now? Missed the ride last year due to the weight

Earendil

Nulty wrote: »

Thought that would happen. Tiger Roll will have to carry 11-5, something I think will only diminish his chances, leaving the current price even worse in terms of value.

He's such an admirable beast and his Cheltenham performance was scintillating...but circa 4-1 is madness for a race where alot of horses get taken out through absolutely no fault of their own.

IAMAMORON

The biggie for me is when or if JP takes out Anibale Fly?

IAMAMORON

11 st 5 lbs is doable by a good horse. Don't Push it ( 11st5lbs and Many Clouds ( top weight ) have both carried over 11 stone in the past ten years.

Since they took the height off the fences the race has become a different animal in my opinion. Rule the World won as a maiden chaser also. It is not as hard to win as it used to be.

In saying that winning it with a big weight cannot be easy. You are always up against something in off a handy weight.

The likes of Captain Redbeard, General Principle ( no pig either ) and SingleFarmPayment are now getting in with over a stone in hand over the likes of Tiger Roll.

Something gets in at this stage off a nice weight and the others just won't compete. The 3 / 1 about Tiger roll is a loadacrap.

piplip87

Yorkhill the lunatic to go to the Melling Chase and beat Altior. Impossible you say but that bloody horse is likely to do anything.

IAMAMORON

It is actually ridiculous the amount of fancies the O'Leary's have. Are any bookies giving a price on a Gigginstown winner?

They can strictly get General Principle into the race by pulling out there own horses. Surely the likes of Outlander, Don Poli and Subeutenant get taken out to let an Irish National winner have his chance ?

I doubt very much Michael gives two ****s which one wins it as long as he gets his airtime?

Nulty

IAMAMORON wrote: »

11 st 5 lbs is doable by a good horse. Don't Push it ( 11st5lbs and Many Clouds ( top weight ) have both carried over 11 stone in the past ten years.

Since they took the height off the fences the race has become a different animal in my opinion. Rule the World won as a maiden chaser also. It is not as hard to win as it used to be.

In saying that winning it with a big weight cannot be easy. You are always up against something in off a handy weight.

The likes of Captain Redbeard, General Principle ( no pig either ) and SingleFarmPayment are now getting in with over a stone in hand over the likes of Tiger Roll.

Something gets in at this stage off a nice weight and the others just won't compete. The 3 / 1 about Tiger roll is a loadacrap.

Tiger Roll is obviously an exceptional horse, but Don't Push It and Many Clouds were proper staaying chasers, built like brick ****houses. Tiger Roll is not built to carry 11-5 4m over 30 fences...but he might still manage it.

I'd want bigger than 10/1 to find out though.

Just to clarify, Many Clouds wasn't top weight when he won the race, he arried top weight the year after - when he didn't win.

Motivator

Nulty wrote: »

Pairofbrowneyes hasn't been tested over an extreme staying distance and in fact needed to win his last race in order to qualify for the National. He'd won the same race (Leinster National) at Gowran last season but it was just under 3m, but he won it again this year off 7lbs higher. He's now officially 10lbs well in for the National and given the confidence in the horse going into last years Irish National I would be expecting a big effort from the horse at Aintree.

He comes into the race off the back of a career best performance and has all of the improvement under his belt without a penalty. He goes on any ground winning on Heavy to Good. The main worries about the horse have to be the fact he fell in the irish national last year. The horse just didn't jump, it looked like a brain freeze and something I wouldn't be too worried about as he's a very reliable jumper the rest of the time.

He's by Luso who's had a few horses run in the National and some that didn't get home like Hear The Echo. He was out of a Strong Gale mare who's progeny have had surprisingly few placers and no winners in the national for a staying sire and now the course is two furlongs shorter than that year. Some others by Luso include Chicago Grey (PU) who was a poor slow jumper and Priests Leap (14th twice).

He's likely to be ridden by P Townend with Walsh likely to opt for Rathvinden.

Based on his rating, his latest performance, and the confidence behind him in the Irish National there he has to be considered as a candidate to win the race.

He’ll want an ease in the ground, Willie won’t risk him if there’s not signifcant rain ahead of next weekend.

IAMAMORON

Nulty wrote: »

Just to clarify, Many Clouds wasn't top weight when he won the race, he arried top weight the year after - when he didn't win.

Noted, but he did carry 11 9 , which is only 1 lb off top weight ?

Nulty

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Noted, but he did carry 11 9 , which is only 1 lb off top weight ?

Yeah I wen to double check after I posted, he was practically top weight

KingJamsie

Motivator wrote: »

He’ll want an ease in the ground, Willie won’t risk him if there’s not signifcant rain ahead of next weekend.

With all the safety precautions now wont there be plenty of water on the track the night before?

Nulty

Motivator wrote: »

He’ll want an ease in the ground, Willie won’t risk him if there’s not signifcant rain ahead of next weekend.

What makes you say that? I haven't heard him suggest that the horse was ground dependent, he ran an very good ground at Christmas.

The ground on the National course will be well watered, no doubts about that.

Earendil

On Willie Hill you can now select the GN horses for the daily boost. Still not NRNB yet though.

Gavin "shels"

Blaklion out.

ASOT

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

Blaklion out.

That 300k they paid now is looking alot worse.

longshotvalue

I think Valseur Lido is in for sure now .:D

Andrew00

Thursday is going to be a cracking day's racing

WicklowBrave

Andrew00 wrote: »

Thursday is going to be a cracking day's racing

Do we know what’s running ? Samcro, Laurina, Apple’s Jade, Buveur D’air?

zpehtsfd

Altior & Santini not running

https://twitter.com/sevenbarrows/status/1111612829717671937

Earendil

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Altior & Santini not running

https://twitter.com/sevenbarrows/status/1111612829717671937

Ah bollox.

Gavin "shels"

Just an FYI guys, this is the GN thread. Aintree Festival thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057967792

Motivator

Nulty wrote: »

What makes you say that? I haven't heard him suggest that the horse was ground dependent, he ran an very good ground at Christmas.

The ground on the National course will be well watered, no doubts about that.

What makes me say that is the horse is fragile and running him on good ground over an extreme distance would be a disaster.

He ran on good ground at Christmas but that was no more than a racecourse gallop. Watch the race back.

carq

When are final decs for this ?
Looking to do an office sweep but wont be around on Thursday / Friday.
Will there be a reliable list of 40 horses on the wednesday ?

The Mig

Think it's Thursday Carq

Dr. Bre

Elliott having a quarter of the field is prob not good but I suppose if you hve the darts then throw them...

damowill

carq wrote: »

When are final decs for this ?
Looking to do an office sweep but wont be around on Thursday / Friday.
Will there be a reliable list of 40 horses on the wednesday ?

5 day declarations are today, so we should see the 84 horses currently declared whittled down. Final declarations with reserves will be on Thursday. We will have a fair idea of runners today but for a sweepstakes you'd have to wait until Thursday...

The Mig

Ms Parfois ruled out

PhuckHugh2

For a sweepstakes you could just draw numbers today. 1-40
Let people figure out for themselves who they are on. Anyone with a NR will get the appropriate reserve that gets in due to the NR. And anyone who doesnt get a run then due to NR just gets their money bacl.

carq

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

For a sweepstakes you could just draw numbers today. 1-40
Let people figure out for themselves who they are on. Anyone with a NR will get the appropriate reserve that gets in due to the NR. And anyone who doesnt get a run then due to NR just gets their money bacl.

If a horse pulls out does he get the old horses no ro do they get a new number 41,42 etc ?

PhuckHugh2

Ohh good question actually.
After final decs number assigned is the number you run in. I think the reserves in the national isnt like a regular race where the numbers are assigned extending the previous list (like 41,42....) though i think they get the number of the horse that it will replace. Im trying to see is that definitely the case though havent found it written down yet.

PhuckHugh2

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Ohh good question actually.
After final decs number assigned is the number you run in. I think the reserves in the national isnt like a regular race where the numbers are assigned extending the previous list (like 41,42....) though i think they get the number of the horse that it will replace. Im trying to see is that definitely the case though havent found it written down yet.

From Irish Field. Link

Reserves
The Randox Health Grand National is restricted to 40 runners plus four reserves. The four reserves are nominated as R1, R2, R3 and R4.

Reserves can be utilised if any horse from the 40 runners is declared a non-runner by 1.00pm on Friday April 5th.

The trainers of horses in the list of five-day acceptors who are not among the 40 highest-weighted horses at the 48-hour declaration stage must indicate at that time whether they are prepared to be a reserve.

In the event that the number of declared runners exceeds 40, up to four reserves will be selected.

These horses will be the four horses with the highest handicap rating among those who are subject to elimination from the race after the 48-hour declaration stage and who indicate that they are prepared to stand as reserves. If the trainer does not make any indication and cannot be contacted, the horse will not stand as a reserve.

When the list of declarations is released, the reserves will not be allocated a saddlecloth number, but will be listed as R1, R2, R3 and R4. They will take sequentially the number of any horse who becomes a non-runner, with reserves who gain a run placed at the bottom of the racecard in the correct weight order.

Non-runners declared by 1.00pm on Friday, April 5th, 2019, will be replaced by reserves. This means that 1.00pm on Friday April 5th, 2019 will be the latest time when reserves can be added to the runners' list and secure a place in the field for the 2019 Randox Health Grand National.

So as i said above. Reserves get the number of the horse that comes out.

Gavin "shels"

https://twitter.com/festivalracing/status/1112694086274826240

JP Liz V1

I am going with pairofbrowneyes (now 26/1 with Paddy Power) e/w

howareyakid

The more I look at Jury Duty, the more I like his profile. He has some decent form in the book including finishing ahead of Rathvinden at Punchestown last year in that crazy race where Al Boum Photo was ridden out.

EICVD

howareyakid wrote: »

The more I look at Jury Duty, the more I like his profile. He has some decent form in the book including finishing ahead of Rathvinden at Punchestown last year in that crazy race where Al Boum Photo was ridden out.

Jury Duty is my choice too.

handsfree2

howareyakid wrote: »

The more I look at Jury Duty, the more I like his profile. He has some decent form in the book including finishing ahead of Rathvinden at Punchestown last year in that crazy race where Al Boum Photo was ridden out.

I don't like putting anyone off a horse but I've always had a question mark over jury duty's staying power. Most of his wins were for races below 3 miles and I recall a few races where he looked like he was going to win but d didn't get home.

I didn't see his latest race but I'd imagine his class got him home

howareyakid

handsfree2 wrote: »

I don't like putting anyone off a horse but I've always had a question mark over jury duty's staying power. Most of his wins were for races below 3 miles and I recall a few races where he looked like he was going to win but d didn't get home.

I didn't see his latest race but I'd imagine his class got him home

That’s a fair point.

Slattsy

Jury Duty won't stay. I said it before the 4 miler at Cheltenham last year when he was favourite and duly well beaten. May not have been his running but there's no way he stays.