ISIS people returning thread - no Lisa Smith talk (21/12/19)

ohnonotgmail

jmreire wrote: »

Maybe not a passport as such, but some other travel document? I have always had to show mine when passing through either Dublin or Shannon. There is now a credit card sized travel document available.....fit's into a wallet, so you can carry it around with you all the time. Is that what you used? or something else??

you have to be able to prove you are an irish citizen, that is all. given that she has been in every major newpaper in the country that should not be difficult for her. But this is all moot anyway. if she is coming back the DFA will give her emergency travel documents.

jmreire

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

you have to be able to prove you are an irish citizen, that is all. given that she has been in every major newpaper in the country that should not be difficult for her. But this is all moot anyway. if she is coming back the DFA will give her emergency travel documents.

You live and learn, I have always carried my passport...never realized that another document would do.....so PPS, Driver's Licence etc. will do? That would be when travelling back from England though? But when travelling outwards, you would still need the Passport? So therefore, you would have it for the retrurn journey too.
If and when Lisa will be brought back to Ireland......she will be escorted every step of the way, nearest thing to Diplomatic Status. Document's will not be an issue at any Border. It will all be organised at Embassy / Dept. Foreign Affair's level.

ohnonotgmail

jmreire wrote: »

You live and learn, I have always carried my passport...never realized that another document would do.....so PPS, Driver's Licence etc. will do? That would be when travelling back from England though? But when travelling outwards, you would still need the Passport? So therefore, you would have it for the retrurn journey too.
If and when Lisa will be brought back to Ireland......she will be escorted every step of the way, nearest thing to Diplomatic Status. Document's will not be an issue at any Border. It will all be organised at Embassy / Dept. Foreign Affair's level.

no need for a passport to leave ireland. ryanair require a passport but that is specific to them. I've travelled with just a driving licence on aer lingus and others with no issues. travelling outside the eu is a different matter.

jmreire

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

no need for a passport to leave ireland. ryanair require a passport but that is specific to them. I've travelled with just a driving licence on aer lingus and others with no issues. travelling outside the eu is a different matter.

OK. but that is just within the EU , I take it? I thought that since Sept 11th, Passport's were required at every Airport world wide. Good to know though.

tuxy

The state is taking its time but soon everything will be in place to allow Lisa Smith and her child to enter Ireland.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/isis-bride-lisa-smith-one-18825071

skooterblue2

tuxy wrote: »

The state is taking its time but soon everything will be in place to allow Lisa Smith and her child to enter Ireland.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/isis-bride-lisa-smith-one-18825071

Its a very vague response from the Taoiseach. No, no, nothing going on but the Department of Foreign affairs might having informal chats that I am not aware of.

We have no will or back bone to protect ourselves. This dope makes Justin Trudeau look competent.

jmreire

tuxy wrote: »

The state is taking its time but soon everything will be in place to allow Lisa Smith and her child to enter Ireland.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/isis-bride-lisa-smith-one-18825071

Leo say's that he is not sure if there was an official request already made or not. But if there was , and nothing has happened so far, all it means is that she is still under suspicion and still being investigated.They ( Kurd's)have recently uncovered a large amount of isis documents concerning isis activities and these are being examined to see if they incriminate any of the isis member's in Al-Hawl camp.
Alternatively, no such request has been made, and the legal firm acting for her on behalf of her Family, are just pushing it. Both the Kurd's and the Syrian Authorities, want all the "foreigners" out ASAP.

recedite

jmreire wrote: »

Both the Kurd's and the Syrian Authorities, want all the "foreigners" out ASAP.

Is there any evidence that the Syrian govt. is unwilling to deal with her?
Generally their policy is to let IS personnel escape if it avoids having to fight them (their army has already suffered massive casualties over the last few years) but I'm sure they could arrange a trial, if they were asked.

But they have been kept out of the loop, by the yanks who control the kurds.

skooterblue2

recedite wrote: »

Is there any evidence that the Syrian govt. is unwilling to deal with her?
Generally their policy is to let IS personnel escape if it avoids having to fight them (their army has already suffered massive casualties over the last few years) but I'm sure they could arrange a trial, if they were asked.

But they have been kept out of the loop, by the yanks who control the kurds.

The auld "catch and release" theory doesnt work. Well if they are looking for judges for an international War Crimes against Christians, Yadizis and who ever else. I want to state I am available. Now I want to state I have no legal experience but what I lack I make up for in enthusiasm and work ethic. I have borrowed a Black cap and gavel. I need to have them back before September so I need to work fast. Anyone who wants to approach me for endorsing a government shroud contract, feel free to approach me.

recedite

tuxy wrote: »

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/isis-bride-lisa-smith-one-18825071

Leo Varadkar previously said he didn’t want to see the mother and daughter separated.
Asked during an interview at his Dail office if he would grant the girl an Irish passport, he said: “The child? Yes.
“Ultimately her child is an Irish citizen because Lisa is a naturally born Irish citizen and any kids she has are Irish citizens too and entitled to an Irish passport.”
When asked did he know the child’s first name, he said: “I don’t actually, no.”
Smith, from Dundalk, named her daughter Rakaya.

Technically Leo is right about them qualifying for Irish passports.


He'll probably also arrange for two Irish passports to be sent out to Syria. Even though he doesnt have to do that. After all, the rest of us have to apply for ourselves, and then pay for the passport as well.



BTW the child's name (Ruqayya) means "rise, ascent, ascending", or "chant or recite divine Islamic words" but hopefully this won't be an omen for the rise of Islam or Islamic extremism in Ireland.

The name might also have been chosen as a reminder to Lisa of the capital city of the failed Islamic State - Raqqa.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

Is there any evidence that the Syrian govt. is unwilling to deal with her?
Generally their policy is to let IS personnel escape if it avoids having to fight them (their army has already suffered massive casualties over the last few years) but I'm sure they could arrange a trial, if they were asked.

But they have been kept out of the loop, by the yanks who control the kurds.

Neither the Syrian or Kurdish Authorities want anything to do with any American or European isis fighter's ( and their Wive's and Children), that are detained in the camp's. You can forget about trials and the "Rule of Law, in that part of the world, it does not exist....and certainly not for isis members. They want them gone, but only if they can hand them over to their own Governments.....and at the moment, that's a problem as most Country's don't want them back. I can't see them "allowing" any to escape either. And for sure, if I was a detainee in Al-Hawl camp, and I found one of the gate's unlocked , and no sign of security around, I would not walk out. Much safer to stay in the camp, but If you DID decide to take your chance's and walk, I would not give much for your chances of surviving. Even unarmed villagers ( of which there are very little) would tear an isis fighter apart barehanded if they caught one. The only safe way out of that camp is to be escorted out, and handed over to an agreed agency.Which is how Lisa will be released, assuming she is green lighted to leave in the first place. And that's far from certain just yet....the new story about issuing a new passport for her and her child, is neither here or there..it's only a formality. I'm pretty sure that a passport for her could be issued withing 24 hrs ( assuming that it has not already been done in contingency ) She could be moved from Al-Hawl to either the Turkish, Lebanese or Jordanian borders in less than 24 hrs. But I think that they are not quite finished with her just yet.

ohnonotgmail

recedite wrote: »

Technically Leo is right about them qualifying for Irish passports.


He'll probably also arrange for two Irish passports to be sent out to Syria. Even though he doesnt have to do that. After all, the rest of us have to apply for ourselves, and then pay for the passport as well.

no need to send them passports. The DFA can arrange temporary travel documents so you don't need to worry about wasting your tax money.

recedite

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

no need to send them passports. The DFA can arrange temporary travel documents so you don't need to worry about wasting your tax money.

I was just referring back to the linked Mirror newspaper article in which Leo said he would provide a passport.
He referred specifically to the child, but also said he would not separate the mother, which means he intends to supply 2 passports, but does not want to say that explicitly.

recedite

jmreire wrote: »

Neither the Syrian or Kurdish Authorities want anything to do with any American or European isis fighter's..

The Syrian govt. and the Kurdish rebels are two completely different players in this. You can't just lump them together like that.
I'm asking if you have any evidence that the Syrian govt. does not want to prosecute any captured foreign IS fighters. Apparently you have none?

jmreire wrote: »

You can forget about trials and the "Rule of Law, in that part of the world, it does not exist....

Again, that's just your opinion. I disagree. Syria was a prosperous country under the Assad regime before foreign interference. It is one of the oldest cultures/civilisations in the world, with a long established legal system. The Assads (father and son) have been "strongman" type dictators which means they don't have much tolerance for criminal behaviour or rebels. And "certainly not for isis members" as you say because the regime is one of secular arab nationalists.
So yes, capital punishment (hangings) is a thing in Syria but that does not mean there is no justice, and no fair trials. It means they do whatever it takes to maintain a functioning secular society in that part of the world.

jmreire wrote: »

She could be moved from Al-Hawl to either the Turkish, Lebanese or Jordanian borders in less than 24 hrs. But I think that they are not quite finished with her just yet.

That is correct. IMO the Americans intelligence agencies will veto any attempt to move her out of their area of control, until such time as all the evidence re her IS activities is gathered and assessed. Especially as she is a trained soldier.

recedite

jmreire wrote: »

if I was a detainee in Al-Hawl camp, and I found one of the gate's unlocked , and no sign of security around, I would not walk out. Much safer to stay in the camp, but If you DID decide to take your chance's and walk, I would not give much for your chances of surviving. Even unarmed villagers ( of which there are very little) would tear an isis fighter apart barehanded if they caught one.

You're not taking account of the fact that the last strongholds of IS, and these camps, are in Sunni areas, where they had significant support from the local population. The Kurds have sent many low ranking IS people back across the nearby Iraqi border on condition that tribal elders take responsibility for keeping them out of trouble.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

The Syrian govt. and the Kurdish rebels are two completely different players in this. You can't just lump them together like that.
I'm asking if you have any evidence that the Syrian govt. does not want to prosecute any captured foreign IS fighters. Apparently you have none?

Again, that's just your opinion. I disagree. Syria was a prosperous country under the Assad regime before foreign interference. It is one of the oldest cultures/civilisations in the world, with a long established legal system. The Assads (father and son) have been "strongman" type dictators which means they don't have much tolerance for criminal behaviour or rebels. And "certainly not for isis members" as you say because the regime is one of secular arab nationalists.
So yes, capital punishment (hangings) is a thing in Syria but that does not mean there is no justice, and no fair trials. It means they do whatever it takes to maintain a functioning secular society in that part of the world.
That is correct. IMO the Americans intelligence agencies will veto any attempt to move her out of their area of control, until such time as all the evidence re her IS activities is gathered and assessed. Especially as she is a trained soldier.

Recidite, can I ask you just one question? Have you ever been in Syria? From the questions you are asking about my post, I'm pretty sure that you have not been there...otherwise you would not need to query my posts. Maybe I'm mistaken though. Let me know, and then I will answer your questions one by one., Ok?

recedite

I have not.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

The Syrian govt. and the Kurdish rebels are two completely different players in this. You can't just lump them together like that.
I'm asking if you have any evidence that the Syrian govt. does not want to prosecute any captured foreign IS fighters. Apparently you have none?

Yes they are two completely different player's, but like VENN Diagram, their respective interests overlap. Al-Hawl camp is in Al- Hasakah Governate, which is Syrian territory, but under the control of the Kurd's. and the Syrians are happy enough with this arrangement ( for the time being , as they have more pressing thing's on their minds at the moment, namely IDLEB.) So they have no really pressing interest in prosecuting isis prisoners that are presently in Al-Hawl camp. Any isis fighters taken prisoner by the Government / Russian / Iranian / Hezbollah forces during the fighting.....after what isis had done to the prisoners they took, would have met pretty much the same fate as they had meted out themselves, and for that, no due process was needed. (Unless you have heard of Syrian War Crimes Tribunals for isis fighters? )???


Again, that's just your opinion. I disagree. Syria was a prosperous country under the Assad regime before foreign interference. It is one of the oldest cultures/civilisations in the world, with a long established legal system. The Assads (father and son) have been "strongman" type dictators which means they don't have much tolerance for criminal behaviour or rebels. And "certainly not for isis members" as you say because the regime is one of secular arab nationalists.

Yes it's my opinion, you are right in that, and I make no scientific claim to it's accuracy,but it is my opinion. just as you have your's, and you are free to accept or reject it, I'm not pushing it on any one, after all this is only a discussion.
Damascus is the oldest continually occupied City on the planet, 10'000 years in fact, and they had their own legal and governmental system's in operation up to March 2011, when the war started...and after that,like everything else, it disintegrated. And it's pretty much the same way since.
Assad's Father Hafez was a strongman, as you say, and he ruled with a rod of iron, in 1982 ruthlessly suppressing a revolution by Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hamas, killing more than 20'000 of it's inhabitant's and leveling the city with bulldozer's after the fighting stopped. The peace reigned thereafter until 2011, when again there were mass protests against the corruption that existed in Syria, cost of living prices, fuel costs were rising. And at this time, the protest's were peaceful and well organised, people were very optimistic that new, and a more democratic Syria was possible, especially as Bashar's wife Asma ( Syrian Lady, but raised in England ) was in favour of talks, discussion and reform. She had earlier on in 2010 already began discussion's on reform, and people had a lot if faith and confidence in her. And the protests continued, until the shooting started...who fired first??? The protester's or the Govt force's??? maybe either or neither, but we have now seen the results.
Up to this point (and even yet ) the Assad Family can take credit for protecting minorities in Syria, they are from the minority Alawite sect them selves, which make up 12% of the population, while Sunnis make up 74 percent of Syria's population. This was one of the driving forces behind the protest's. To this very day,nearly all of the countryside in a line along the sea from Damascus, to Tartous up to Latakia, is Assad Country. Older men ( way above military age ) and women dressed in Syrian Army uniforms man the checkpoint's on the road's. They do this without pay, but in support of Assad.

Capital Punishment (hangings) is a thing in Syria but that does not mean there is no justice, and no fair trials. It means they do whatever it takes to maintain a functioning secular society in that part of the world.
That is correct. IMO the Americans intelligence agencies will veto any attempt to move her out of their area of control, until such time as all the evidence re her IS activities is gathered and assessed. Especially as she is a trained soldier.

Yes, pre March 2011, when Syria was a fully functioning Country, these Court's and Legal systems existed,,,but since the war? Sure in Damascus, you have Traffic Police etc working....but even today, when the bombing's and shooting's have lessened ( but not stopped entirely ) the "Rule of Law" doe's not cover all of Damascus, never mind all of Syria. It will take quite awhile yet to have fully functioning Law Court's back in operation in Syria.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

You're not taking account of the fact that the last strongholds of IS, and these camps, are in Sunni areas, where they had significant support from the local population. The Kurds have sent many low ranking IS people back across the nearby Iraqi border on condition that tribal elders take responsibility for keeping them out of trouble.

The last stronghold of isis is in Idlib....when the Russians arrived ( just in time to prevent the fall of Assad ) They analysed the complete situation, and made a plan. They singled out specific area's controlled by isis/ Free Syrian Army / Nusra Front/ Al-Qaeda etc. And depending on their immediate threat to Assad they concentrated their attacks on specific areas. ( they continued to support Assad's attacks on other target's too, of course. ) After sustained bombing attack's on a selected area....the inhabitant's would be forced to surrender, and then a deal would be made. All militants in the area, with their Families and light weapons would be allowed to leave, and given safe passage to Idleb.
The Russians continued with this formula, and Town after Town and City after City were " Liberated" in this way, until the 2nd last battle in Baghus, which was the last isis stronghold to fall. ( most of the inhabitants in Al-Hawl camp are from Baghus.
So now, the last Battle is looming.....the Battle for Idleb. Already, thousand's and thousand's of Idleb citizens have departed for safer area's, and isis has pushed out all the other fighters who were not true Blue isis. To say that the area is predominantly Sunni, ( 74% of the Syrian population is Sunni....so you can safely say that ALL area's of Syria are predominantly Sunni ) and therefore supportive of isis, is simply not true. isis burned many bridges with their cruel behavior. They do not have any major support amongst the local population, who would much prefer that they would take their "DABIQ" some where else. When isis first arrived, the major mean's to fund the Caliphate was by financial extraction from the local Sunni population. All business men were required to pay "Tithe's" and taxes were levied on the population. They also took their Children as future isis soldier's, and their Daughters as husbands for their fighters. So, no, they were not and are not major isis supporters... they have seen by now what follow's when isis take's over a region.
I'm aware about the Iraqi isis members being handed back to the Iraqi Govt...I posted it a few pages back. But do you know ( or have a guess ) about what happened to any Syrian isis fighters who were handed back to the Syrian authorities.???? Have you read or heard anywhere about any trial's and verdict's? Now that would make very interesting reading. Maybe it has happened...I just don't know as I have never heard of it...but I'm not too optimistic about hearing it either, under the circumstances.
As for Idleb itself....it has been bombed, especially the town's and villages around it. Hospital's being a main target. But Idleb is not like the other city's "Liberated", where they bombed at will, as they did not give a damn about the population. Idleb has a large Turkman popuation, so Turkey has an interest in it. And so have the Kurd's. Add in the US who also carry out patrol's in the region, and you have a completely different equation. There is presently in Syria ( especially in Idleb ) great Jostling for who will control post war Syria. Will be interesting to see how all that plays out. But one thing is for sure, the War in Syria is far from over.

recedite

jmreire wrote: »

The last stronghold of isis is in Idlib....when the Russians arrived ( just in time to prevent the fall of Assad )

...But one thing is for sure, the War in Syria is far from over.

The Russians did not just "arrive", they have had bases and interests there for decades. And that is largely why the US has supported the rebels, its all part of the Great Game they play with each other for influence in the middle east.
IMO the war will never be "over" completely because of the competing ethnic interests in the north east corner of the country. The question of a Kurdistan homeland for the Kurds rumbles on, as it has always done. Turkey will more than likely keep a piece of Syria, citing protection for the Turkmen and the need to counter the "terrorist" Kurds. The same sunni extremists who are holed up around Idlib will continue to pine for a sharia society, even if the IS dream is now dead.

But... it is entirely possible for civil society to carry on in a normal way just a few miles away from a chaotic situation. We see similar in the Israeli/Palestine situation, which nobody expects will be resolved completely.
I don't disagree with much of what you say. I just think you are exaggerating the lawlessness in the main part of Syria which is under Syrian govt. control.

We in the west have constantly been fed the narrative that the Syrian govt. are the bad guys in all this, and "regime change" was the answer.
I just don't accept that.

This video uploaded by a young British tourist not so long ago gives an idea of the contrast between the govt. controlled area of Damascus and the former rebel stronghold of Homs. Its obvious that a good lifestyle is available in Syria right now, for those who want to live under the rule of law. Conscription is a thing, but if more of the men who ran away went back and served their stint in the army, the whole country could be normalised much quicker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmgFOsS4-Ts

recedite

In the video above, there are people relaxing in a cafe. Men and women, mixing together, and out enjoying themselves on a fine evening. Not a Burqa in sight.
Now consider for a moment, Lisa Smith went all the way out there to destroy that society.
No wonder they are so angry with foreign jihadis.

Tea drinker

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

no need to send them passports. The DFA can arrange temporary travel documents so you don't need to worry about wasting your tax money.

my sarcasm meter is giving a non zero response to this

ohnonotgmail

Tea drinker wrote: »

my sarcasm meter is giving a non zero response to this

it seems to be working correctly so.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

In the video above, there are people relaxing in a cafe. Men and women, mixing together, and out enjoying themselves on a fine evening. Not a Burqa in sight.
Now consider for a moment, Lisa Smith went all the way out there to destroy that society.

No wonder they are so angry with foreign jihadis.

First, I am very reluctant to take any You Tube video's serious....this one is no exception..look's like a Syrian Tourist Board AD. INMO. Based on it Recedite, and say you are planning a holiday, would you choose Syria? ( aside from everything else, It's a fascinating Country )
As for the shortage of Burqa's, would you expect to see them in places selling alcohol? And believe me,,,,just because you cannot see them in the Bazaar in Bab Tourma in the Old City in that video....doe's not mean that they are not there. If you ever get the chance to walk around it ( well worth a visit, but will take a few hours to see what it has to offer ) you will find plenty of Burqa's. Plus, a visit will change your perception of present day Syria

Our Lisa went to join an organisation committed to destroying everyone who did not adhere to their version of Islam. It was to be the Worldwide Islamic Caliphate. Even in Ireland we would not have been safe had they succeeded. Syria was just a step on the way to that goal. I have nothing but contempt for her, and her equal's.

jmreire

(Excerpt taken from larger post)

Its obvious that a good lifestyle is available in Syria right now, for those who want to live under the rule of law. Conscription is a thing, but if more of the men who ran away went back and served their stint in the army, the whole country could be normalised much quicker.

The "Good Life" will always be available to those who can afford it, no matter the circumstances.. in present day Syria , they are definitely in the minority.
If you were a Syrian of military age during the war, would you have signed up? While a certain amount did of course ( especially in Assad strongholds...All along the cost, generally, from Tartous to Latakia ) Many more did not, and out of the 11 million people who left Syria, I'm sure that conservatively, a figure 500'000 to 750'000 would have been of military age., who voted with their feet. They did not feel that the regime was worth dying for, but neither was the opposition. Of course, it would have finished much quicker if they had joined, but that was their call to make. They did not ( and I don't blame them either) want to join the estimated 470'000 killed so far in the war.

jmreire

recedite wrote: »

The Russians did not just "arrive", they have had bases and interests there for decades. And that is largely why the US has supported the rebels, its all part of the Great Game they play with each other for influence in the middle east.

Sure the Russians had interests in Syria, just the same as many other Country's had. Business is business, Trade is trade. The Russians did not have exclusive right's to Syrian ports and Airports above any other Country. when the war started, the Russians supplied Syrians with arms etc, but so did other Countrys....after all,,, WAR is a business. But their intervention, with "Boot's on the Ground" did not happen until September 2015 when Assad requested their help because his survival depended on it and the Regime was on the verge of collapse at that point. This was nearly 5 years after the war started. Had Russia intervened in the early stage's, when HOMS Battle was in progress, that might have finished it at that point ???. But as you mentioned, the US was vying for power in the region too, so maybe that's why Russian intervention was not possible just then. When Obama red lined the use of Chemical weapons, but then failed to react ( he could have declared a No-Fly zone)but when he did not , the Russian's took this as a signal that the US was not really prepared to increase their involvement in the Syrian war, and it was a "Green Light" for them to intervene, which they did. The question for the future is, "When and under what circumstances will they leave?? Because I'm pretty sure that somewhere, a debt tab is running....and it will have to be paid at some stage.



But... it is entirely possible for civil society to carry on in a normal way just a few miles away from a chaotic situation. We see similar in the Israeli/Palestine situation, which nobody expects will be resolved completely.
I don't disagree with much of what you say. I just think you are exaggerating the lawlessness in the main part of Syria which is under Syrian govt. control.

It's hard to explain the Lawless element in the " Govt Controlled " area's. yet they Do exist, in spade's. Just take my word for that, OK?

Signore Fancy Pants

While you are not waaay off the mark, the following points are for the benefit of everyone else who read your post. Some things need tidying up.

jmreire wrote: »

The last stronghold of isis is in Idlib....

That's not entirely accurate. The Jihadist coalition group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al Nusra & Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) is currently the dominant rebel group in Idlib. The majority of the pocket has transitioned from 'moderate' rebel control such as the Free Syrian Army to hardline rebel control.

Recently, inter rebel factional clashes have taken a back seat while they (Moderates and Jihadists) simultaneously focus their efforts against Syrian forces. Mainly because they have nowhere else to go.

While ISIL elements are present in the pocket, they are mainly in small relatively unorganised pockets which do include some defectors from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Their focus is small scale training and facilitation. TBH, "stronghold" is a very generous term.

While they don't hold any strategic cities, towns or villages, ISIL have far greater numbers in the desert regions of Damascus, Homs, As-Suweyda, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zeir.

jmreire wrote: »

when the Russians arrived ( just in time to prevent the fall of Assad ) They analysed the complete situation, and made a plan. They singled out specific area's controlled by isis/ Free Syrian Army / Nusra Front/ Al-Qaeda etc. And depending on their immediate  threat to Assad they concentrated their attacks on specific areas. ( they continued to support Assad's attacks on other target's too, of course. )

Thats not exactly correct. Russia arrived at the request of the Syrian government, which was advantageous for Russia for a myriad of reasons. Initially, they were not too concerned with Syrias strategic short term intents.

Russia were more interested in gaining a stable foothold in the Middle East, something which they had not had in 15 years. They tried to gain a naval port in Libya but it fell through, next was Syria.

Russias immediate goals were to enter a theatre in the Middle East where the U.S was not a dominant player. They changed the conflict dynamic in Syria while doing the bare minimum, it has been quite remarkable. It was the air power, external Actor co-operation and Russian military advisors on the ground which gave cohesion to the crumbling Syrian forces.

Russia used Syria as a testing and proofing ground for Russian military equipment. They also rotated their senior Russian Generals and gave almost every Corps element varying degrees of combat experience.

Once Russian interests were sorted, they dipped their toe into the political arena with the Astana and Sochi dialogues. This is where the Russia, Iran and Turkey deal came about for the establishment of four 'de-escalation' zones. Overtly they were designed to reduce civilian casualties but in reality it was to 'manage' the civil war.

jmreire wrote: »

After sustained bombing attack's on a selected area....the inhabitant's would be forced to surrender, and then a deal would be made. All militants in the area, with their Families and light weapons would be allowed to leave, and given safe passage to Idleb.

The Astana agreement led to the establishment of the four zones (Idlib, Homs, Damascus and later with US & Jordanian support....southern Syria). Each zone was besieged, some lasted longer than others. The Astana goal was to secure Syria in the shortest amount of time possible and then focus on regeneration.

Once an area was besieged, the Russian Reconciliation for Syria negotiated with the rebels. There were three possible outcomes, stay and die, relocate to Idlib or reconcile with the Syrian government and maybe be folded back into the mix and fight against your former comerades.

This saw thousands of fighters and families from the 3 pockets be relocated to Idlib, making it more dangerous than ever. This has backfired in a number of ways. Idlib is now a tougher nut to crack and the south is witnessing a limited insurgency due to reconciliation promises not being granted by Russia and Syria.

jmreire wrote: »

The Russians continued with this formula, and Town after Town and City after City were " Liberated" in this way, until the 2nd last battle in Baghus, which was the last isis stronghold to fall. ( most of the inhabitants in Al-Hawl camp are from Baghus.
So now, the last Battle is looming.....the Battle for Idleb.

In the southern zone, many towns and villages which were held by rebels actually capitualted without a battle. The villagers turned against the rebels once they saw an "end" in sight.

Also, Baghuz is on the eastern side of the Euphrates river which was not touched by the Russians due to mutual 'de-confliction' by the US and Russia....maybe you meant Abu Kamal or Al Bukamal whatever way ye want to spell it.

jmreire wrote: »

As for Idleb itself....it has been bombed, especially the town's and villages around it. Hospital's being a main target. But Idleb is not like the other city's "Liberated", where they bombed at will, as they did not give a damn about the population. Idleb has a large Turkman popuation, so Turkey has an interest in it.  And so have the Kurd's.

Southern Idlib, northern Hama, west Aleppo and east Lattakia are all being hammered and have been for a long time. You are correct that vital civilian infrastructure has been targeted and hit...its a logical military strategy. If the rebels use it, kill it.

We know Turkey has an interest in Idlib but mainly for border security reasons. The buffer zone with no YPG, YPJ or PKK elements inside it. The Kurds have no hope of taking back the Afrin Canton and Tell Rif'at in northerm Aleppo wont last much longer either.

jmreire wrote: »

Add in the US who also carry out patrol's in the region, and you have a completely different equation. There is presently in Syria ( especially in Idleb ) great Jostling for who will control post war Syria. Will be interesting to see how all that plays out. But one thing  is  for sure, the War in Syria is far from over.

The US focus is east of the Euphrates River, nothing to do with Idlib with the exception of occasionally (rarely) targeting known Al-Qaeda leadership in the pocket. Manbij, Raqqa and al-Hasakah are the big issues when it comes to Turkey and the US at the moment.

Russia and Turkey want the trade routes in the pocket to be taken from the rebels to reopen trade from Jordan-Syria-Turkey, the US have no interest in controlling Syria, with a minute exception of the oil and gas fields in the east.

Signore Fancy Pants

recedite wrote: »

Is there any evidence that the Syrian govt. is unwilling to deal with her?
Generally their policy is to let IS personnel escape if it avoids having to fight them (their army has already suffered massive casualties over the last few years) but I'm sure they could arrange a trial, if they were asked.

But they have been kept out of the loop, by the yanks who control the kurds.

This is a clusterfcuk.

The Syrian government have released from detention the guts of 1,500 ISIL affiliated members of Jaish Khaled ibn al-Waleed (southern syria) in the last 2 months. They have hung and shot others but released roughly this many "local" fighters.

The Kurds have no legitimate authority to hold trials, appeals or award sentences as they are not an officially recognised state.

They have been performing them or handing foreign ISIL fighters over to the Iraqis who will try them...IF they operated in Iraq.

The Kurds have been campaigning for an International body to be set up to legitimately deal with the foreign ISIL fighter issue...this has not gained traction.

Syria will not "arrange a trial, if they were asked" as that sets a precedent and forces ownership and responsibility on the Syrian judiciary to deal with the ISIL detainees.

Signore Fancy Pants

recedite wrote: »

But... it is entirely possible for civil society to carry on in a normal way just a few miles away from a chaotic situation.

Agreed, this was evident while the rebeks held eastern Ghouta. Eastern Damascus was getting hammered while western Damascus was still serving Latte's.

recedite wrote: »

I don't disagree with much of what you say. I just think you are exaggerating the lawlessness in the main part of Syria which is under Syrian govt. control.

There has been a large increase of criminality in Damascus and southern Syria over the last 12 months.

recedite wrote: »

We in the west have constantly been fed the narrative that the Syrian govt. are the bad guys in all this, and "regime change" was the answer.
I just don't accept that.

Well, the civil war erupted due to the treatment of civilians by Assad at the military...you cant deny that.

recedite wrote: »

Its obvious that a good lifestyle is available in Syria right now, for those who want to live under the rule of law.

Same can be said about any country.

recedite wrote: »

Conscription is a thing, but if more of the men who ran away went back and served their stint in the army, the whole country could be normalised much quicker.

I don't agree. A lot of men who fled were ex or serving military defectors. Others were civilians who are 'persons of interest' to the Regime. Others were dubiously reported to the Mukhabarat by neighbours and had to flee or would have been 'dissapeared'. Others had links to the rebels and refused to fight them, so left.

The country would in no way be "normalised much quicker" if Assad had more troops.

jmreire

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

While you are not waaay off the mark, the following points are for the benefit of everyone else who read your post. Some things need tidying up.

Signore, that's not a problem, feel free to put meat on the bone's of my comments. I am not connected to the Military, but work in areas and locations where there would be a military presence. Neither am I involved in politic's at any level, so the comments that I make, are just my personal opinion based on my experience in the Country's that I work / or have worked in. In this particular case, it is Syria. So as I have already said....go ahead with your "tidying up".:)



That's not entirely accurate. The Jihadist coalition group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al Nusra & Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) is currently the dominant rebel group in Idlib. The majority of the pocket has transitioned from 'moderate' rebel control such as the Free Syrian Army to hardline rebel control.

Recently, inter rebel factional clashes have taken a back seat while they (Moderates and Jihadists) simultaneously focus their efforts against Syrian forces. Mainly because they have nowhere else to go.

While ISIL elements are present in the pocket, they are mainly in small relatively unorganised pockets which do include some defectors from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Their focus is small scale training and facilitation. TBH, "stronghold" is a very generous term.

While they don't hold any strategic cities, towns or villages, ISIL have far greater numbers in the desert regions of Damascus, Homs, As-Suweyda, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zeir.

Yes, that's it very well broken down by group's.My point is that Idleb was used a catchment area for all shade's of the opposition, no matter what their affiliation. They have been funneled into Idleb from all over Syria. And now that the main body of isis has been defeated, they will still be very dangerous, and capable of cropping up anywhere in small but extremely effective small group's or even as individual's. One thing is sure... they have not gone away.



Thats not exactly correct. Russia arrived at the request of the Syrian government, which was advantageous for Russia for a myriad of reasons. Initially, they were not too concerned with Syrias strategic short term intents.

Russia were more interested in gaining a stable foothold in the Middle East, something which they had not had in 15 years. They tried to gain a naval port in Libya but it fell through, next was Syria.

Russias immediate goals were to enter a theatre in the Middle East where the U.S was not a dominant player. They changed the conflict dynamic in Syria while doing the bare minimum, it has been quite remarkable. It was the air power, external Actor co-operation and Russian military advisors on the ground which gave cohesion to the crumbling Syrian forces.

Russia used Syria as a testing and proofing ground for Russian military equipment. They also rotated their senior Russian Generals and gave almost every Corps element varying degrees of combat experience.

Once Russian interests were sorted, they dipped their toe into the political arena with the Astana and Sochi dialogues. This is where the Russia, Iran and Turkey deal came about for the establishment of four 'de-escalation' zones. Overtly they were designed to reduce civilian casualties but in reality it was to 'manage' the civil war.

That's correct, and well explained. But the thrust of my comment's is that without Russian intervention....the Regime would have fallen. I remember very well before the Russians came into the picture... Opposition soldiers appeared in Damascus inside the security zone...they entered via the under ground pipes, and literally came out of the manholes...the idea was that simultaneously, the security perimeter would be attacked from the front and the the rear. The place was flooded with Govt soldiers, who managed to repel the attack, but at a cost. After that, rumor's were rampant that the fall of Damascus was imminent. It did not happen, but shortly afterward's, the Russian's involvement began.

The Astana agreement led to the establishment of the four zones (Idlib, Homs, Damascus and later with US & Jordanian support....southern Syria). Each zone was besieged, some lasted longer than others. The Astana goal was to secure Syria in the shortest amount of time possible and then focus on regeneration.

Once an area was besieged, the Russian Reconciliation for Syria negotiated with the rebels. There were three possible outcomes, stay and die, relocate to Idlib or reconcile with the Syrian government and maybe be folded back into the mix and fight against your former comerades.

This saw thousands of fighters and families from the 3 pockets be relocated to Idlib, making it more dangerous than ever. This has backfired in a number of ways. Idlib is now a tougher nut to crack and the south is witnessing a limited insurgency due to reconciliation promises not being granted by Russia and Syria.

That's it in a nutshell...


In the southern zone, many towns and villages which were held by rebels actually capitualted without a battle. The villagers turned against the rebels once they saw an "end" in sight.

Yes, I can understand that happening..after 5 + years of war, and all the misery that it brought, every one ( fanatics excluded ) were heartily sick of it. That was the opinion of most people, even if they did not openly express it. Climate of fear.

Also, Baghuz is on the eastern side of the Euphrates river which was not touched by the Russians due to mutual 'de-confliction' by the US and Russia....maybe you meant Abu Kamal or Al Bukamal whatever way ye want to spell it.

Again from my viewpoint , Baghuz did fall after a lengthy battle, which to me was the important point.Does not really matter ( to me anyway) which faction or combination of faction's actually fought and won. But its interesting to hear it all the same.

Southern Idlib, northern Hama, west Aleppo and east Lattakia are all being hammered and have been for a long time. You are correct that vital civilian infrastructure has been targeted and hit...its a logical military strategy. If the rebels use it, kill it.

Standard Operating Procedure... and to hell with International Humanitarian Law, and protected buildings and population.


We know Turkey has an interest in Idlib but mainly for border security reasons. The buffer zone with no YPG, YPJ or PKK elements inside it. The Kurds have no hope of taking back the Afrin Canton and Tell Rif'at in northerm Aleppo wont last much longer either.

No, they ( Kurd's ) wont get Afrin back, and as you say, Tell Afrin wont last either. Currently, the US and Turkey are at loggerhead's over this region, with the US supporting the Kurd's

The US focus is east of the Euphrates River, nothing to do with Idlib with the exception of occasionally (rarely) targeting known Al-Qaeda leadership in the pocket. Manbij, Raqqa and al-Hasakah are the big issues when it comes to Turkey and the US at the moment.

Russia and Turkey want the trade routes in the pocket to be taken from the rebels to reopen trade from Jordan-Syria-Turkey, the US have no interest in controlling Syria, with a minute exception of the oil and gas fields in the east.

Whatever the US actually wants ( or not ) they are being blamed for instigating "Regime Change " ( and it has to be said, they have form in this regard. You don't think that is the case?