I'm A Celebrity Werewolf - Get Me Out Of Here!!! (February Werewolf Game)

quickbeam

Barney92 wrote: »

You couldn't do a full 360, so just a nugget of doubt in there right before she died.

No, I said the offer to be shot trumped my one niggle. Whippy and GnR were both on her as a wolf and I wanted to know what they saw that I was missing. I offered up the only tentative thing that *I* saw that could have been a wolf.

It doesn't even make sense? If I was a wolf, why would I kill somebody and then do a 360 on someone that was going to be proved to be a villager??

Barney92

quickbeam wrote: »

No, I said the offer to be shot trumped my one niggle. Whippy and GnR were both on her as a wolf and I wanted to know what they saw that I was missing. I offered up the only tentative thing that *I* saw that could have been a wolf.

It doesn't even make sense? If I was a wolf, why would I kill somebody and then do a 360 on someone that was going to be proved to be a villager??

So do you think it would be more wolfy to have cleared someone as a villager before they died or to have mostly cleared them but have raised something just before their death that gave you doubt(s)?

quickbeam

Barney92 wrote: »

So do you think it would be more wolfy to have cleared someone as a villager before they died or to have mostly cleared them but have raised something just before their death that gave you doubt(s)?

Neither. Without a seer nobody is cleared fully regardless. Neither has an advantage to a wolf as far as I can tell.

I'm not sure what you're driving at.

Barney92

quickbeam wrote: »

Neither. Without a seer nobody is cleared fully regardless. Neither has an advantage to a wolf as far as I can tell.

I'm not sure what you're driving at.

What I'm driving at is that there are six people left and I know I'm good. At least two people are evil, but potentially 3/4 of the remaining five. So are you one of the other goodies, because at this stage it's almost more likely that you are not good.

quickbeam

Assuming 3 wolves left (anyone have any strong thoughts on that being wrong?) we only need one of the other three players (two villagers, one SK) to vote for a wolf and the other wolves will lump on and win the CL and off one of the other three.

sKeith

Barney92 - gave trit a prize, whip said they are good. leaning good.
Mam of 4 - leaning good mainly for saying the notes content was nonsense and a distraction, which i believe it was.
quickbeam - leaning good, even though kitty bias.
Whiplashy - got a prize, said barney is good, doesn't make them good.

over the line good from my POV
tritium - good
sKeith - good

If there is 4 bad left, its all of the above.

quickbeam

Barney92 wrote: »

What I'm driving at is that there are six people left and I know I'm good. At least two people are evil, but potentially 3/4 of the remaining five. So are you one of the other goodies, because at this stage it's almost more likely that you are not good.

I think there are four evils left. So, yes, statistically I'm not likely to be one of the good ones. From a lurker's POV, each one of us have a 66% chance of being evil right now. However, I know I'm not evil, so I reckon each of the other five have an 80% chance of being evil. Theoretically of course.

In reality, in my head, I'm 100% and the other five range in different percentages based on their play.

Barney92

sKeith wrote: »

Barney92 - gave trit a prize, whip said they are good. leaning good.
Mam of 4 - leaning good mainly for saying the notes content was nonsense and a distraction, which i believe it was.
quickbeam - leaning good, even though kitty bias.
Whiplashy - got a prize, said barney is good, doesn't make them good.

over the line good from my POV
tritium - good
sKeith - good

If there is 4 bad left, its all of the above.

You've just said that three of the people above the line are leaning good. So if there aren't four left who is bad?

Barney92

quickbeam wrote: »

Assuming 3 wolves left (anyone have any strong thoughts on that being wrong?) we only need one of the other three players (two villagers, one SK) to vote for a wolf and the other wolves will lump on and win the CL and off one of the other three.

I'm between 2 and 3 wolves left. 3 starting wolves and a convert seems balanced enough given there seem to be no village roles.

sKeith

Barney92 wrote: »

You've just said that three of the people above the line are leaning good. So if there aren't four left who is bad?

That's a direct cut & paste from last night with the dead removed.

Barney92

sKeith wrote: »

That's a direct cut & paste from last night with the dead removed.

My question still remains. If there are only three baddies left who do you think they are?

quickbeam

I still had doubts about Trit being a wolf who threw a teammate under the bus for cred. But if Kitten said he's good, and she's now proven to be good then I've no reason to doubt him any more.

Trit, who do you think should be CL? I'll go with you.

If I'm right about there being four evils left then it's just you and me. I do tend to believe Barney though too, so it could be only three evils left and Barney's good too. I think Whippy & Mam are the wolves and sK is the SK. Or Mam could be the sK, lying low would indicate that, and Whippy and sK are the wolves, but I don't see sK as being an original wolf. Who knows, but they're my three evils and if I'm CL I'd want to vote to evict one of those three.

Barney92

quickbeam wrote: »

Assuming 3 wolves left (anyone have any strong thoughts on that being wrong?) we only need one of the other three players (two villagers, one SK) to vote for a wolf and the other wolves will lump on and win the CL and off one of the other three.

So whip voting you and that not happening yet means one of three things (I think)

1 - whiplash is a wolf and you're not (why would they cast a vote so early if a wolf in this situation though, surely it would be best to wait it out)

2 - both you and whiplash are wolves and they voted early on you so that this argument could be made and a villager/sk would also vote for you and then you and the remaining wolf would pile on.

3 - There are only 2 wolves left and so this strategy isn't possible. Which means one of you probably isn't a wolf.

Barney92

For what it's worth I think it is option two and both you and whiplash are wolves.

tritium

My sense is two wolves and a sk left for 3 evils. Typically a team has max 4 on it and I’m assuming 4 plus a convert is a bit overpowered

Of the remaining village

Quickbeam
Tritium
Barney92
Whiplash
Mam of 4
Skeith


Convert makes things harder here. Only one I know is village is me and 50% are bad with conflicting priorities Going to do a quick readback and revert

Barney92

Pter wrote: »

A conversion has taken place.

kitten_k wrote: »

I have peek Trit and he came back as good. He will be getting CL vote for tonight.

Right, just wanted to confirm what qb said about Trit definitely being good. The peek was after the conversion. So trit is definitely good.

Barney92

sKeith wrote: »

Trit should peek kitten and kitten should peek trit.

We work out the permutations of the results afterwards.

So sKeith wants the two people with a peak to peak each other, handy so that he doesn't get peeked himself.

Barney92

Whiplashy wrote: »

I’m going kitten peeks trit and trit peeks Barney. I’m more inclined to think trit is a villager so be interesting to see what kitten says about him and see if Barney has been converted.

Whiplash wants me peeked again despite the fact I could only be one of the possible evils if their original peek of me was legit. Seems a great way to waste a peek if you don't want yourself or a teammate to be peeked.

sKeith

Barney92 wrote: »

My question still remains. If there are only three baddies left who do you think they are?

Barney92 -
Mam of 4 -
quickbeam -
Whiplashy -



Barney - been very agreeable with me. was i being pocketed?



Mam - Strongest good for me was mam, but very low poster, lurks a lot (genie effect), giving alot of benefit for being noob. maybe too much.


Whip - wins prize for insect photos, the following reveal seems genuine noob mistake.


qb - been quieter than usual.






Why ain't i dead?


most likely to be good, barney, as if he was evil I think i'd have been dead already.

Barney92

Evil
Whiplash
QB
sKeith (I'm leaning towards him being the SK)

Mam is the fourth evil if there is one.

Village
Trit
Barney

Lord TSC

A prize has been awarded.....

Barney92

Lord TSC wrote: »

A prize has been found.....

Mam of 4

My thoughts , not much reasoning behind them ..

Good ;
Trit,
Barney .

Bad ,
Whiplashy , same reasoning i said at the start ,
QB , just something not sitting right with me , very helpful , very clear thought out reasoning , nearly too nice to be wholesome , maybe was converted ,
sK , wants too much to be CL , a ploy for a wolf to be in charge ?

Me , am good , said it from the start .

Barney92

sKeith is bad, thanks to my seer peek prize.

Whiplashy

I really don’t have time for this today unfortunately. I am good 100%. I don’t think anyone can argue that trit is evil because of kittens peek. So me and trit are villagers imo. I’m leaning towards 3 evils left, which means one more villager. If Barney wasn’t converted then it’s definitely him...hiwever if I were a wolf I’d have converted him. I’m leaning towards QB being good. If QB is elected CL then we get a good indication either way. I’m definitely not confident in voting Mam, and sKeith has openly admitted he won’t do the WOTP over and over again, so even if he’s good, his poor judgement has to rule him out.

sKeith

Barney92 wrote: »

sKeith is bad, thanks to my seer peek prize.

Barney is bad, due to me being good and him saying i am bad.

Whiplashy

Barney92 wrote: »

sKeith is bad, thanks to my seer peek prize.

But that all depends on us believing that you haven’t been turned. This game is a right head****!

sKeith

Vote for me, i'll kill a wolf, not an NRV.

I'll evict barney who is 100% evil.

Barney92

Whiplashy wrote: »

But that all depends on us believing that you haven’t been turned. This game is a right head****!

Well it doesn't really depend on you believing I haven't turned. His being bad is definite. What you do with that information depends on whether you believe I was turned or not.

Barney92

I didn't peek QB because I'm worried her prize is a block of a peek.