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I'm A Celebrity Werewolf - Get Me Out Of Here!!! (February Werewolf Game)

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    #1502
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Barney92 wrote: »
    I didn't peek QB because I'm worried her prize is a block of a peek.


    We'll need a second choice if Barney's prize was immunity.


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    #1503
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    We'll need a second choice if Barney's prize was immunity.

    Oh I'm happy with her going after you.


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    #1504
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    My only question is sKeith, are you the SK.


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    #1505
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Oh jeez that would be a horrible prize. I’d love to be peeked and cleared.


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    #1506
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Permutations.

    Known, Barney is bad.

    Whip says he peeked barney as good. If true, barney is convert. If false, barney and whip are a team, this suggests that barney cannot be the SK, no matter what whip is.


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    #1507
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Barney, what was your prize for?

    Current thinking is go with Barney’s peek and vote him CL. Risky but it’s very 50:50right now


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    #1508
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Oh jeez that would be a horrible prize. I’d love to be peeked and cleared.

    Seems unlikely but I didn't want to be given a false good peek as that would certainly have meant we'd lose. So I then moved between Whiplash and sKeith.


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    #1509
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    tritium wrote: »
    Barney, what was your prize for?

    Current thinking is go with Barney’s peek and vote him CL. Risky but it’s very 50:50right now

    Can't have me as CL again unfortunately.

    Prize wasn't for anything, I just got it.


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    #1510
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    Permutations.

    Known, Barney is bad.

    Whip says he peeked barney as good. If true, barney is convert. If false, barney and whip are a team, this suggests that barney cannot be the SK, no matter what whip is.

    The follow on conclusions are meaningless sKeith.

    I've little doubt that Whiplash peeked me good. In your, if true scenario what does that say of Whiplash's alignment?


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    #1511
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Barney92 wrote: »
    Well it doesn't really depend on you believing I haven't turned. His being bad is definite. What you do with that information depends on whether you believe I was turned or not.

    This is an interesting post...

    Numbers are such that wolves need to off the sk

    If the sk is evicted then we have 5 left

    Assuming we lose 1 villager at munch and 2 wolves left , wolves win


    Skeith I think you need to pour out your heart to us


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    #1512
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    I’ve been trying to work out where the prizes have come from. I’ve looked at the nth posts after munch compared to the winner and can see no corrolation.


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    #1513
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    sKeith wrote: »
    Kitten wasn't peeked, she won a prize. Its NAI.
    sKeith wrote: »
    Non allignment indicative.

    Nothing about winning a prize means you are good or bad.


    If kitten lies and says trit is bad, who wins that battle?

    She is always saying a good trit is good.
    Especially when trit has a peek in the hand.


    Barney92 wrote: »
    The follow on conclusions are meaningless sKeith.

    I've little doubt that Whiplash peeked me good. In your, if true scenario what does that say of Whiplash's alignment?


    Same as above.


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    #1514
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    quickbeam wrote: »
    I’ve been trying to work out where the prizes have come from. I’ve looked at the nth posts after munch compared to the winner and can see no corrolation.

    Yeah I looked at that too, and they seemed to be in the same realm of post number (between 50-75 posts after) but no true pattern. Also no true pattern in the time after a munch.


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    #1515
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    Same as above.

    Fine, if I'm bad what do you think of Whiplash given that they said they peeked me good. Do you think Whiplash is good?


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    #1516
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    sKeith wrote: »
    Kitten wasn't peeked, she won a prize. Its NAI.
    tritium wrote: »
    This is an interesting post...

    Numbers are such that wolves need to off the sk

    If the sk is evicted then we have 5 left

    Assuming we lose 1 villager at munch and 2 wolves left , wolves win


    Skeith I think you need to pour out your heart to us


    I don't do appeals to emotion. I do logic.


    Barney is a wolf. (not the SK)


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    #1517
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Barney92 wrote: »
    Fine, if I'm bad what do you think of Whiplash given that they said they peeked me good. Do you think Whiplash is good?


    Read


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    #1518
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    tritium wrote: »
    This is an interesting post...

    Numbers are such that wolves need to off the sk

    If the sk is evicted then we have 5 left

    Assuming we lose 1 villager at munch and 2 wolves left , wolves win


    Skeith I think you need to pour out your heart to us

    2 wolves left for arguments sake, and one SK. That means three villagers (with you definitely good)

    3v2v1 (We need to keep the SK alive, so either nominate sKeith as CL or we have to identify the third villager, because if a wolf gets the nomination this one is in the books)
    Evict sKeith and he's the SK
    3v2
    Wolves munch one and wolves win

    Evict sKeith and he's a wolf
    3v1v1
    Each munch a villager
    1v1v1 - SK win
    Could be a 2v1 scenario though and then the villagers are trying to find the last wolf


    If it is 2v3v1 (we have to give the CL to the SK, otherwise they wolves will evict the SK or me)

    Elect a wolf CL
    2v3 (wolves win)
    If they pick me thinking I'm the SK (1v3v1) - wolves win on munch.

    Elect SK CL (and they evict a wolf)
    2v2v1
    Wolves will take out SK to win, unless SK also takes out a wolf.


    Moral of the story is, we may need to give the CL to the SK.


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    #1519
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    Read

    You say if true I'm the convert.

    You say if false myself and Whiplash are on the same team.

    My question is if I'm the convert do you think I'm on the same team as Whiplash?


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    #1520
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    Barney92 wrote: »
    You say if true I'm the convert.

    You say if false myself and Whiplash are on the same team.

    My question is if I'm the convert do you think I'm on the same team as Whiplash?

    I mean it's all rather meaningless because I'm not the convert but I want to know your thoughts on what me being the convert makes you think about whiplash.


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    #1521
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    sKeith wrote: »
    I don't do appeals to emotion. I do logic.


    Barney is a wolf. (not the SK)

    And you know this how?


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    #1522
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Barney92 wrote: »
    I mean it's all rather meaningless because I'm not the convert but I want to know your thoughts on what me being the convert makes you think about whiplash.


    How do you being the convert make any difference to whips allignment?



    We'll play them thru, if you wish.


    v whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...
    w whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...
    sk whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...


    as I said, them winning a prize and saying you are good in the situation were you are the convert is NAI.


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    #1523
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    tritium wrote: »
    And you know this how?

    Well Whiplash peeked me good. They'd have no reason to do that if we were on separate wolf teams, so either we're on the same wolf team with me as the convert or I'm actually good. I can't be the SK.

    If whiplash is good then I was at one point good, which means I'm no the SK.

    If whiplash is bad then I am either the convert and their peek of me was true, the whole peek was a lie and I'm a teammate, or the peek was true and I wasn't converted. If whiplash is bad and I was on a different bad team they'd have no reason not to out me as bad.


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    #1524
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    sKeith wrote: »
    Permutations.

    Known, Barney is bad.

    Whip says he peeked barney as good. If true, barney is convert. If false, barney and whip are a team, this suggests that barney cannot be the SK, no matter what whip is.
    tritium wrote: »
    And you know this how?


    I know i'm good. Barney says I'm bad.


    I know barney is bad.


    I've quoted the post above.


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    #1525
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Barney92 wrote: »
    sKeith is bad, thanks to my seer peek prize.

    So, why peek skeith without discussing with the village Barney?


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    #1526
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    How do you being the convert make any difference to whips allignment?



    We'll play them thru, if you wish.


    v whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...
    w whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...
    sk whip, peeks barney, gets good, says nrv etc...


    as I said, them winning a prize and saying you are good in the situation were you are the convert is NAI.

    I'm not asking about what their peek said of me. I'm asking what you think of Whiplash if I am the convert. As in does me being the convert make any difference whatsoever as to your views on Whiplash? My point about asking about the if true case isn't to question if it is true it is to wonder how me being the convert might change anything you think about Whiplash. Or would me being the convert have absolutely no impact on your thoughts about Whiplash?


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    #1527
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    tritium wrote: »
    So, why peek skeith without discussing with the village Barney?

    Because at this stage most of the village is bad Trit, or at least half of it is. Maybe we could have gleaned stuff from people's suggestions but possibly not. Perhaps I should have discussed it, so that's on me.

    Who would you have liked me to have peeked?

    Ideally I would have found a goodie as then there would be three of us, but I didn't.


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    #1528
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Ok, rehashing history

    Barney was suspect because Strawbs dies

    Whip peak clears Barney

    Convert happens

    Barney says he wins peek this morning and skeith is bad


    Is that the right sequence?


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    #1529
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    tritium wrote: »
    Ok, rehashing history

    Barney was suspect because Strawbs dies

    Whip peak clears Barney

    Convert happens

    Barney says he wins peek this morning and skeith is bad


    Is that the right sequence?


    A prize was won, but could have been immunity. We may not be able to evict him off tonight.


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    #1530
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    tritium wrote: »
    Ok, rehashing history

    Barney was suspect because Strawbs dies

    Whip peak clears Barney

    Convert happens

    Barney says he wins peek this morning and skeith is bad


    Is that the right sequence?

    Ok subject to someone saying the sequence is wrong....


    Assume a max of 4 wolves including convert (I can’t see 5 ever, too much critical mass)

    Loughc and sully are two, leaves 2 others

    So, Barney peeks good has to be true at point of peek, even if whipnis bad as there’s only one other wolf at that point.

    So to be bad Barney has to be the convert.


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    #1531
    Barney92
    Registered Users Posts: 2,906 ✭✭✭Barney92


    sKeith wrote: »
    A prize was won, but could have been immunity. We may not be able to evict him off tonight.

    You certainly would be able to. I mean I haven't ruled out making you CL, but I hope there is another villager out there. Given that I know you're bad there's a 1/4 or 1/3 chance you're the SK.

    If I go elsewhere then there are three options. It's possible that all three are wolves which would be unfortunate and game over. if 2 are wolves that means that the other is a villager or the SK and you are the third wolf. Ideally the other villager would be CL, but next best option is for the SK to have it.


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